Help on the way? Interesting and DEEP number of quality starters on the
trading block due to payroll shedding/shredding.
I'll be super frustrated if they don't grab at least one of these guys - they can go get a couple of semi-washed out vets as well to fill out the roster - leaving a ton of cake to still BB and maybe a lower tiered legit FA pitcher as well.
I'm willing to part with the following -
Garver or Jeffers
Kepler
Rooker
Arraez
Donaldson
Larnach - only if we can't get it done with a combo of the above
No Polanco of BB - or what the heck's the point of the trading for the pitching then
What says you virtual GM??
Sandy Alcantara, Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt are three starters the Twins could target in trades.
theathletic.com
If the
Twins have any chance of contending in 2022, they need substantial help for a rotation that currently consists of
Bailey Ober,
Joe Ryan and
three blank spaces.
Fortunately there are
plenty of front-line starters available in this very talented, very deep free-agent class, led by
Max Scherzer,
Kevin Gausman,
Robbie Ray,
Marcus Stroman,
Carlos Rodón,
Clayton Kershaw,
Justin Verlander,
Jon Gray,
Anthony DeSclafani,
Alex Wood,
Steven Matz and
Corey Kluber. Free-agent pitching is never cheap, and often risky, but the Twins have
money to spend.
They could also look to rebuild the rotation via the trade market, where their
excess veteran bats and a strong collection of prospects could be offered up for veteran starters. Even that path seems to be in the Twins’ favor this offseason, as several non-contenders have multiple quality starters and some contending teams with quality starters are reportedly looking to reduce payroll.
Below are 12 veteran, front-line starters the Twins could target in trades.
With the Reds in
payroll-shedding mode, Luis Castillo is their biggest veteran trade asset as a 28-year-old front-line starter under team control through 2023. He’s slated to make around $7.5 million in 2022 via arbitration and will be due for a raise to $10 million or more in 2023 — bargain salaries for a pitcher who would command over $100 million on a long-term deal as a free agent.
His control comes and goes, but few starters have better raw stuff than Castillo, who pairs high-90s fastball/sinker velocity with an elite changeup and a swing-and-miss slider. Castillo annually ranks among
MLB’s leaders in both strikeout rate and ground-ball rate, an ideal combination for any pitcher, and since 2019 he has a 3.61 ERA with 507 strikeouts in 448 innings.
Miami has enviable young pitching depth and is said to be shopping some of it for additional lineup help, specifically at the catcher position. That could make the Twins a fit with
Mitch Garver or
Ryan Jeffers to offer up as part of the package for 26-year-old Sandy Alcantara. His high-90s sinker is a ground-ball factory and he made big strides with control in 2021. Of course, Alcantara might be too appealing.
Alcantara posted a 3.19 ERA in 206 innings last season, striking out 202 and allowing just 21 homers. It’s obvious why the Twins would want him, but with three more years of team control and a modest $4.5 million salary projected via arbitration, even the perpetually rebuilding Marlins may want to build around Alcantara unless they’re blown away by an offer.
The A’s, like Cincinnati, are a 2021 contender now in
cost-cutting mode with multiple quality starters to shop. Frankie Montas is the most appealing after a breakout age-28 season in which he posted a 3.37 ERA with 207 strikeouts in 187 innings. Montas has two seasons of team control remaining via arbitration, with a raise to around $5 million set for 2022.
Montas can overpower opponents with high-90s velocity, but his best pitch is a high-80s splitter that was nearly unhittable in 2021 and his slider is also a solid offering. He’s a fly-ball pitcher and Montas ran into homer-fueled issues in the past, but the emergence of his splitter may have neutralized that. He allowed a grand total of one homer on the 678 splitters he threw last season.
Zac Gallen is 26 years old and not even arbitration eligible yet, so it’s not clear why Arizona would be motivated to move an impact arm under team control through 2025. But if losing 110 games last season and having no realistic shot of competing in 2022 causes the Diamondbacks to make an iffy decision, the Twins should absolutely be ready to take advantage.
Gallen has a 3.46 ERA with 317 strikeouts in 273 innings since being called up in mid-2019, holding opponents to a .221 batting average in 50 total starts. His mid-90s fastball is a very effective lead offering, and his changeup and curveball are both nice off-speed pitches. He definitely won’t come cheap even if Arizona decided to move him, but Gallen is potentially a rotation building block.
Sonny Gray is another front-line starter Cincinnati might be looking to move with two years of team control left. He can’t compete with Castillo’s raw stuff and he’s three years older, but Gray has been every bit as good since 2019 with a 3.48 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. That matches his career 3.61 ERA across nine seasons, including lots of early success with Oakland.
Gray has a deep five-pitch mix that misses bats and induces grounders, and he’s been a playoff-caliber starter in seven of his nine seasons. However, he’s 32 and struggled after returning from a midseason rib-cage injury this past season, posting a 5.03 ERA in 14 second-half starts. Gray is owed $10 million in 2022 and his deal includes a $12 million team option for 2023, both of which are below-market salaries.
Yet another front-line Reds starter possibly on the block with two years of team control ahead, Tyler Mahle is 27 and due for a raise to around $5.5 million via arbitration. Things didn’t click for the former top prospect until 2020, but since then Mahle has a 3.72 ERA with 270 strikeouts in 228 innings on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, an elite splitter and a bat-missing slider.
Mahle has less of an established track record than Castillo and especially Gray, but he’s also the youngest of the three and could be particularly appealing if the Twins thought they could trade for him and sign him to an extension before he adds any further to his resume. He’s not a big name (yet), but expect the Reds’ asking price to be substantial.
Baltimore’s rotation had an MLB-worst 5.67 ERA over the past three seasons, but John Means has been a rare Orioles starter to pitch like he belonged in the majors. Means, a strike-throwing lefty who made his first major-league start at age 26, now has a 3.78 ERA in 63 career starts and has pitched well in each of his three full seasons.
On one hand, the Orioles can hardly afford to lose one of their only good arms. On the other hand, Means is already 28 and the Orioles look like they’re going to be bad for a while longer. Baltimore has averaged 109 losses per 162 games since 2018, including 110 last season. Means is team controlled for three more seasons. How many of those will be spent on a non-competitive team?
Pablo López, Miami Marlins
Pablo López has Alcantara-like upside as a 25-year-old with a mid-90s sinker and two good off-speed pitches, but the Marlins are likely much more willing to move him because of considerable injury question marks. He missed nearly the entire second half of the 2021 season with a shoulder strain, returning to make just one short start on the final day of the schedule.
Prior to that López looked like a front-line starter, posting a 3.26 ERA and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 31 starts since the beginning of 2020. López also dealt with shoulder problems in 2018 and 2019, so the Twins may be scared off by the injury risk. But if healthy López is a young power arm with enough big-league success to know the upside is there. He’s team controlled through 2024.
Sean Manaea bounced back well from the 2018 shoulder surgery that cost him most of 2019, posting a 3.73 ERA with 269 strikeouts in 263 innings since rejoining the rotation. He’s never had high-end velocity, but the lefty’s average sinker was actually faster last season (92 mph) than it was before going under the knife (90 mph in 2018) and his changeup has always been a plus pitch.
Manaea is going into his final season before free agency, with a projected salary of $10 million via arbitration. He’s certainly worth that money after a season in which he had a 3.91 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 178 innings, but the A’s could view even that modest salary as a must-move and their trade asking price will be lower than similar pitchers with multiple years of team control.
Chris Bassitt, like Manaea, is going into his last pre-free agency season and due for a raise to about $9 million in arbitration that could render him a must-move in Oakland. He’s quietly been one of the AL’s best starters since returning from elbow surgery in 2018, logging 412 innings with a 3.23 ERA, including a 3.15 ERA and career-high 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 27 starts in 2021.
Bassitt made his first All-Star team at 32, but his career-year took an ugly turn when he was struck in the face by a line drive on Aug. 17 and was taken off the field on a stretcher, later undergoing surgery for facial fractures. Remarkably, he returned to the mound just five weeks later and threw 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in two late-season outings. Good pitcher, good story, good trade target.
Rotation-mates
German Márquez and
Antonio Senzatela got extensions from the Rockies, but Kyle Freeland is going year-to-year via arbitration and will be a free agent after 2023. He’s spent his entire 654-inning career in Colorado and his 4.44 ERA at Coors Field is the fourth-best ever for pitchers with at least 25 starts there. Freeland’s overall 4.20 career ERA is also better than it looks.
But how much better? That’s tough to say, because altitude has been shown to hinder the Rockies’ road performance as well, making it more complicated than simply trusting road splits. Freeland has a career 3.96 ERA on the road, which is plenty good, and there’s reason to think the lefty has upside beyond that even if his raw numbers never jump off the page. He’s due about $7 million in 2022.
Elieser Hernández is another young Marlins starter with injury question marks and enough upside to possibly overlook them. Limited to just 17 starts the past two seasons because of biceps, quadriceps and lat strains, Hernandez has a 3.84 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings during that time and the 26-year-old is under team control through 2024.
He lacks the high-end velocity of Alcantara and López, averaging just 91 mph on fastballs, but Hernández’s slider is a legit weapon and his changeup is useful versus left-handed hitters. Not every oft-injured young arm is worth gambling on, and Hernández has less upside — or at least less obvious upside — than his rotation-mates Alcantara or López, but the price tag should be lower as well.
theathletic.com
www.mlbtraderumors.com
