***MINNESOTA-PENN ST PRE-GAME THOUGHTS THREAD***

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cncmin said:
This is a nice analysis. Thanks, G07. One thing to keep in mind is that the Gophers' offensive mindset really didn't get ultra-aggressive until the second half of that NW game, at which point and since, everything has clicked. Perhaps we should be looking at 2.5 games, in the Gophers' case. If you multiply the 2nd half of the NW game by 2 and use that instead, do the stats change much?
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It gets marginally better - from an admittedly quick calculation, we gained 155 yards against Northwestern in the 2nd half, which gives us 310 yards against them (instead of the 299 we actually gained); on average, NW gives up 418 a game, so it was generally not a good game.

We have been above opponent average the last two games (+30 yards above Nebraska's average, +65 above Indiana's average) so things have been improving, clearly. Hope we can show it against a team with a statistically better defense, that's all.
 

I don't think Penn State has top level talent on defense but they seem like they have better overall talent right now on defense at least more mature and experienced players on the defensive and offensive lines then, Indiana, Nebraska and Northwestern. Were not scr-ewd in the sense the Gophers should fear Penn State, but games never seem to be easy against Penn State even at home. Gophers have not played them much but have not beaten that team since 2004. This will not be a walk over but I expect a tough Big 10 type of low scoring long posession times for both teams. This is probably the team that has the best team speed on the edges to close down those jet sweeps, and inside traps to the right and will be more likely to ignore our shifts and motion the most. I fully see them blowing off a lot of the motion and creativity the Gophers have had with that as noise, were going to have to see a few more plays to guys that they do not expect to get the football, and the quarterback is going to have to hang in the pocket even slide up and make some throws to extend some drives. This is not going to be an easy football game, good thing our guys are playing with confidence right now.
 

Gopher07 said:
It gets marginally better - from an admittedly quick calculation, we gained 155 yards against Northwestern in the 2nd half, which gives us 310 yards against them (instead of the 299 we actually gained); on average, NW gives up 418 a game, so it was generally not a good game.

We have been above opponent average the last two games (+30 yards above Nebraska's average, +65 above Indiana's average) so things have been improving, clearly. Hope we can show it against a team with a statistically better defense, that's all.
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This is nitpicking, and nothing against your analysis in the least, so don't take it that way. But, that 35-40-yard passing TD called back on a fake penalty is a big negative effect, and perhaps helps lend to our perception that the offense actually did quite well in the second half of that game. Let's say the Gophers score on that play instead of on the ensuing INT TD; then that would add 35-40 yards to the second half stats, or 70-80 yards to the doubled stats. While a total of 310+80=390 remains below NW's average yielded per game, it would then be near that average, within the noise at least.

Thanks again.
 

cncmin said:
This is nitpicking, and nothing against your analysis in the least, so don't take it that way. But, that 35-40-yard passing TD called back on a fake penalty is a big negative effect, and perhaps helps lend to our perception that the offense actually did quite well in the second half of that game. Let's say the Gophers score on that play instead of on the ensuing INT TD; then that would add 35-40 yards to the second half stats, or 70-80 yards to the doubled stats. While a total of 310+80=390 remains below NW's average yielded per game, it would then be near that average, within the noise at least.

Thanks again.
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Agreed, that certainly hurt us in the stats department.

One thing is for sure: we won the game, and that's what matters :)
 

Gopher07 said:
Agreed, that certainly hurt us in the stats department.

One thing is for sure: we won the game, and that's what matters :)
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Delving deeply into stats is for losers. Final score is for winners.
 










Dr.Don said:
Well, last year in the BB Predict the Score Contest, I won 4 times!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I suspect you did it by sending in the same entry four times for the game you won. Anyway, congratulations!
 




Ryan Burns is reporting 8 visitors for Saturday's game. Anyone know who they are?

I know of Frank Ragnow and Jerry Gibson.
 

MinnesotaNice said:
Ryan Burns is reporting 8 visitors for Saturday's game. Anyone know who they are?

I know of Frank Ragnow and Jerry Gibson.
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Official visitors:

RB J'Vonte Herrod
DE Demetrius Hill
ATH Jerry Gibson

Unofficial Visitors:

OT Frank Ragnow
QB Jacques Perra (PWO offer)
OLB Blake Weber
2015 OL brothers Landen and Levi Paulsen
2015 QB Ryan Schlichte
2015 CB Adam Buirge
2016 DT JoJo Garcia (just offered by Gophers)

Current commits Connor Mayes, Brandon Lingen, Gaelin Elmore, and Andrew Stelter
 

gopherdudepart2 said:
One thing Indiana was able to do was generate pressure on our running game by blitzing there linebackers in to the two and three gaps in the second half. I expect Penn State to mimic this tactic.

We are going to have to be able to run and execute the stretch plays to the outside as I fully expect Penn State will attempt the same stratagey blitz there linebackers up the gutt to try and disrupt our running game because we have been effective between the tackles and with the inside trap plays. .... Max Williams is another marked man and they will definately try and take him away now that he showed up on film with an explosive play.
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I will be very happy if PSU blitzes as much as Indiana did. any team that resorts to blitzing that much knows it is flawed. Consistent blitzing up the middle while also taking away williams should create a huge hole in the middle of the field that Limegrover should be able to exploit. I worry about teams that are good enough to not blitz.
 

jaymil said:
Official visitors:

RB J'Vonte Herrod
DE Demetrius Hill
ATH Jerry Gibson

Unofficial Visitors:

OT Frank Ragnow
QB Jacques Perra (PWO offer)
OLB Blake Weber
2015 OL brothers Landen and Levi Paulsen
2015 QB Ryan Schlichte
2015 CB Adam Buirge
2016 DT JoJo Garcia (just offered by Gophers)

Current commits Connor Mayes, Brandon Lingen, Gaelin Elmore, and Andrew Stelter
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Thanks Jaymil.
 


gopherdudepart2 said:
There going to line him up all over the place and try and get him some mismatches against a linebacker on a seam route or some of those pick routes like Michigan did with Fuenchess. Fuenchess lined up wide on multiple ocassions against the Gophers. Just expect Penn State to try and run some similar routes to get him isolated in one on one match ups with a Safety or linebacker. Robinson is there go to receiver as Fuenchess is for Michigan as is the tight end for Iowa. They will run similar play action plays to try and connect on some of those same routes. There quarterback is not a spread guy so I don't expect them to run any option pitches but you never know in this game of college football. It is a copy cat league and game just as much as the NFL.
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If you were to pick one of the Gopher's DB's to take on Robinson one on one who would it be? Vereen, Murray or someone with more size like D Travis? I don't know how much of Robinson's game is physical vs speed.
 

ESPN says...

PENN STATE at MINNESOTA

Brian Bennett: I might pick Penn State here if it the game were in State College, Pa., where the Lions seem to have all of their mojo. But Minnesota has something special going and I'm done doubting the Gophers. Ra'Shede Hageman causes havoc on defense as Penn State turns the ball over three times, and Minnesota's ground game wears down the Nittany Lions defense. … Minnesota 24, Penn State 20.

Adam Rittenberg: Gophers fans probably won't like this, but I'm picking Minnesota after being burned the past two weeks. A balanced offense takes advantage of Penn State's leaky defense and a team that struggles away from home. David Cobb goes for 150 rush yards and two scores, and Philip Nelson adds two more touchdown passes. Allen Robinson has another big day for Penn State, but it's not enough as Minnesota wins its fourth consecutive Big Ten game for the first time in 40 years. … Minnesota 31, Penn State 24
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http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/88572/big-ten-predictions-week-11-3
 

Gopher07 said:
ESPN says...



http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/88572/big-ten-predictions-week-11-3
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Here's what the guest picker had to say as well....

This week's guest is Adam Miller from Los Angeles. Adam, the floor is yours …


Long time reader, first time writer, hoping to be your next guest picker! As a recent Penn State grad living across the country in Pac-12 territory, I need all the B1G I can get, and your blog does a lot to help with that (even though I'm still adjusting to 9am 'Lunchtime Links'). I'm even traveling from SoCal to Minneapolis this weekend with college buddies to watch my Nittany Lions taking on a surging Minnesota squad. Pretty excited for a short work week capped off with a great football weekend. Hope to hear from you guys. Keep up the good work -- Adam, PSU Class '13


Penn State 28, Minnesota 24
 

3. Digging into the mix: The Gophers need some help if they’re going to win the division, but the way they’ve handled their own business to even stay in the picture in the middle of November is impressive enough no matter what happens. Given all the potential distractions that could have come with coach Jerry Kill’s health or playing multiple quarterbacks, the work Minnesota has done to get to 3-2 in the league and within striking distance if things break its way is one of the better stories of the season. It also won’t be over if it can take care of Penn State at home.

4. B.B. firing: There is no uncertainty in the Penn State backfield now, and it’s safe to assume that any chance of a road win over the Gophers will involve a heavy dosage of Bill Belton. The Nittany Lions junior is coming off a career-best 201-yard performance in a win over Illinois that made it quite clear that he’s the best option for Bill O’Brien’s rushing attack. And while Minnesota hasn’t been a slouch on defense during its surprising run, it has allowed more than 142 yards per game on the ground, which Belton would be more than willing to exploit.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/88510/what-to-watch-in-the-big-ten-week-11-6
 

November is for contenders, not pretenders.

The guys have shown both sides thus far in the BIG. PSU has the edge on raw talent but can the Gophers beat them down with ball control, few penalties and take care of the ball and an improved passing game? The Gopher run D worries me.

A PSU win and 8 wins would keep the Gophers in the CFB limelight with a nice bowl game to look forward to. A loss, and back to the same old for the Gophers and for the nth time, look for better things in 2014.
 

D travis would be the guy I would pick. He will just play block out like rebounding a basketball against Vareen or Murray.
Both are competitive guys but Robinson is tall and the one thing the guy does very well is leap and high point the ball while shielding you off with his body. D Travis would lay a few licks in to him that would take some of the wind out of his sails, and let him hear footsteps over the middle.
 

gopherdudepart2 said:
D travis would be the guy I would pick. He will just play block out like rebounding a basketball against Vareen or Murray.
Both are competitive guys but Robinson is tall and the one thing the guy does very well is leap and high point the ball while shielding you off with his body. D Travis would lay a few licks in to him that would take some of the wind out of his sails, and let him hear footsteps over the middle.
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If you want D. Travis to lay the licks on him over the middle, that would come from the Safety spot, not the guy lined up against him and chasing him around the field.

I would not have any one CB follow him around.
 

4 Keys: A Penn State win at Minnesota? It can happen if Bill O'Brien's Lions follow these simple steps

Penn State's path to a road win over the Golden Gophers …

1. Meet the physical challenge presented by Minnesota's power run game. I've mentioned this all week. The Lions must limit the damage done by the Gophers on the ground. Minnesota averages 221 rushing yards per game. If the hosts get near that total Saturday, PSU will likely have trouble staying close.

2. Keep massive Minnesota defensive lineman Ra'Shede Hageman away from quarterback Christian Hackenberg. The Lions' freshman has absorbed some nasty shots in the last few games and Hageman is one of the best defensive linemen in the Big Ten. He has 9 tackles for loss and if the 6-6, 311-pound Hageman unloads on Hackenberg, I'm not sure the quarterback is getting up this time.

3. The red zone is for touchdowns, not field goals. The Lions converted just 3 of 6 red zone possessions into touchdowns against Illinois and it almost cost PSU the game. PSU must finish inside the 20.

4. Get the better of the Minnesota offensive on third down. The Gophers are going to try and grind away at PSU but they are ranked 9th in the Big Ten in third-down conversion percentage (42.6). If the Lions can keep Minnesota under 40 percent, I think they are going to be in this game to the end.

http://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2013/11/4_keys_a_penn_state_win_at_min.html

Go Gophers!!
 

Bayfieldgopher said:
November is for contenders, not pretenders.

The guys have shown both sides thus far in the BIG. PSU has the edge on raw talent but can the Gophers beat them down with ball control, few penalties and take care of the ball and an improved passing game? The Gopher run D worries me.

A PSU win and 8 wins would keep the Gophers in the CFB limelight with a nice bowl game to look forward to. A loss, and back to the same old for the Gophers and for the nth time, look for better things in 2014.
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I'm not super confident in this, but I think the Run D (esp. LB's) have come a loooonnggg way since Iowa.
 

e.bigelow said:
Here's what the guest picker had to say as well....

This week's guest is Adam Miller from Los Angeles. Adam, the floor is yours …


Long time reader, first time writer, hoping to be your next guest picker! As a recent Penn State grad living across the country in Pac-12 territory, I need all the B1G I can get, and your blog does a lot to help with that (even though I'm still adjusting to 9am 'Lunchtime Links'). I'm even traveling from SoCal to Minneapolis this weekend with college buddies to watch my Nittany Lions taking on a surging Minnesota squad. Pretty excited for a short work week capped off with a great football weekend. Hope to hear from you guys. Keep up the good work -- Adam, PSU Class '13


Penn State 28, Minnesota 24
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On the year, guest pickers have the Gophers at 2-7 (0-5).
 

This is the biggest game our Gophers have played in a long long time. Three wins in a row is "a neat thing for those boys from up there". Four in a row including Nebraska and PSU is a "Holy Cow who is this Minnesota"?

The bowl game changes...a lot! Recruiting changes...a lot. Local media attention changes...a lot. The week off to prepare for Wisky will change a whole bunch more than a lot. Suddenly the Wisky becomes a game with national implications and how long has it been?

Go Gophers take care of business this Saturday!
 


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