***MINNESOTA-PENN ST PRE-GAME THOUGHTS THREAD***

[thailleagle]

I don't know what to think of Penn St... the same team that beat Michigan needed overtime to beat a below average Illinois team. I do however believe we've seen better Defenses & Offenses then PSU has to offer...

Should be a good game...

The idea of possibly going into the game against Wisconsin 8-2 has me very excited though...

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

I am concerned about a let down, but maybe the way the IU game ended will keep the Gophers from feeling over confident. The only game that I have seen PSU play this year was against U of Central Florida which was an exciting one. They are extremely young (I believe they have 50 freshman on the team including walk ons).

I think we will see a return of the 3 LB set for the Gophers and PSU will play an offense more like Iowa's with a run and play action pass balance. I hope the Gophers can out physical and make less mistakes than PSU.

Can our offense continue it's new and exciting ways?

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Whats the latest on Phil? Is he practicing?

 

[Gopher07]

PSU is an interesting case for us. This season, we've beaten teams with pretty bad defenses:

UNLV: 106th total defense
New Mexico State: 123rd total defense
San Jose State: 93rd total defense
Northwestern: 80th total defense
Nebraska: 70th total defense
Indiana: 117th total defense

And we've struggled against teams that have better defenses (regardless of their offense):

Iowa: 13th total defense
Michigan: 28th total defense

Coming into Saturday's game, Penn State falls closer toward the teams we've beaten in total defense at 57th, but is, by no small margin, ahead of all of them. And, by no small margin, firmly behind Iowa and Michigan.

On the offensive side of things, it hasn't really seemed to matter (we've beaten three top-30 offenses in Nebraska, SJSU and Indiana, but lost to Iowa and Michigan - both north of 60 in offensive ranking). Penn State is 49th in total offense.

That said, it would seem we will need our usual defensive effort, but an offensive effort slightly better than usual to give us a good win. It would be our best win, relative to the opponent's defensive strength, all season.

Just some food for thought, thought it was interesting.

(Side note: our last two games are against the #6 defense and #1 defense. Ouch)

 

[Clark W. Griswold]

I don't know much about PSU so I could be way off. I think it will be a good test but a game the gophers should win. The gophers are playing their best right now and PSU seems to be struggling in games that they shouldn't. The PSU-Michigan game is concerning though. If the game was in Happy Valley I would be more worried. If the gophers can continue their tough, solid play with the ability to make some big plays I think they can get the win. The PSU d might be the best the gophers have seen, but they are giving up about 40 a game in conference games.

 

[Golden_Sloth]

PSU is an interesting case for us. This season, we've beaten teams with pretty bad defenses:

UNLV: 106th total defense
New Mexico State: 123rd total defense
San Jose State: 93rd total defense
Northwestern: 80th total defense
Nebraska: 70th total defense
Indiana: 117th total defense

And we've struggled against teams that have better defenses (regardless of their offense):

Iowa: 13th total defense
Michigan: 28th total defense

Coming into Saturday's game, Penn State falls closer toward the teams we've beaten in total defense at 57th, but is, by no small margin, ahead of all of them. And, by no small margin, firmly behind Iowa and Michigan.

On the offensive side of things, it hasn't really seemed to matter (we've beaten three top-30 offenses in Nebraska, SJSU and Indiana, but lost to Iowa and Michigan - both north of 60 in offensive ranking). Penn State is 49th in total offense.

That said, it would seem we will need our usual defensive effort, but an offensive effort slightly better than usual to give us a good win. It would be our best win, relative to the opponent's defensive strength, all season.

Just some food for thought, thought it was interesting.

(Side note: our last two games are against the #6 defense and #1 defense. Ouch)

Interesting take. I'm surprised that Penn State's defense is rated as high as #57 though. They've given up some big points this year. 63 to OSU, 40 to MICH, 44 to IND, 34 to UCF.

 

[Gopher07]

Interesting take. I'm surprised that Penn State's defense is rated as high as #57 though. They've given up some big points this year. 63 to OSU, 40 to MICH, 44 to IND, 34 to UCF.

It is helped out quite a bit by a good non-conference ... 260 yards to Syracuse, 183 to EMU, 190 to Kent State.

But, they only gave up 389 to Michigan (their average), and gave up fewer yards to Indiana than we did. Ohio State was >600, UCF >500, and even Illinois went for >400 against them though.

Unrelated note, this game could easily come down to turnovers. In conference play, we are +2 on turnover margin (+5 for the year). Penn State is -3 in conference (-6 overall). If we take care of the ball, and they don't, we can neutralize their moderate defensive advantage with more possessions. That could be our big advantage come Saturday.

 

[Iceland12]

Five Key Points From O'Brien Press Conference

Here are two of them


3. Kill Switch: When Minnesota head coach Kill and his program announced Oct. 10 that he would need a leave of absence to focus on treatment for epilepsy, which he suffers from, the Golden Gophers quickly had to adjust, which meant Claeys was elevated to acting head coach from defensive coordinator.

Responsibilities had to be shifted, both on game day, on the practice field, and in recruiting. O'Brien said he's never been, or dealt with, an interim coach, but that didn't stop him from expressing admiration for the job Claeys and company have done to reel off consecutive victories in Kill's absence.

The program will go for three this weekend against the visiting Lions, as Kill will not coach again Saturday.

"It has got to be really difficult. I have a lot of respect for him," O'Brien said. I don't know how you prepare for that, but they have a lot of guys that work well with them.

"They understand what Coach Kill wants, and they are able to carry out those orders. They've done a great job. This is a really good football team."

As for Kill, O'Brien said he spoke to the Golden Gophers' head coach two weeks ago.

"Jerry, obviously, I have a ton of respect for Jerry. I eel bad for him. I called him on the phone two weeks ago to see how he was doing," O'Brien said.

"He's a great guy, and that staff has a lot of cohesion and unity, and you can see kids feed off of that. I can't say enough about Jerry Kill and his staff."

4. Careful against the run? Not quite: O'Brien was asked about whether his defense would need to be careful to not over commit to the run defensively against Minnesota's fourth-ranked rushing offense. The Golden Gophers passing offense ranks dead last in the conference, averaging just 145.3 yards per game.

O'Brien responded simply, as in he was looking for simplicity from his linebackers in their tips and aggressiveness from his secondary that limits risk.

But playing careful? No, that's not what you'll see from Penn State Saturday.

http://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2013/11/five_key_points_from_penn_stat_1.html

 

[e.bigelow]

They have one definite playmaker in Allen Robinson, who is a beast at WR, and a pretty decent RB in Bill Belton who has had some success lately. But, they have also struggled with some of the competition they have played as of late, I.E., losing to Inidiana and needing OT to beat an improved, but not great, Illinois team. I really don't know what to think about the PSU team.

So, I think it comes down to trying to limit those two guys offensively, as well as creating some turnovers and protecting the football. We do that, we win.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

Very true about the big beast physical receiver in Robinson. Not much smaller then Funchess who presented some coverage issues for the Gophers. Also a pretty good passing QB.

Is it just me or does watching PSU or thinking about PSU take some of the joy out of college football? I wish they were no longer in our conference.

 

[thesanfordman]

Is it just me or does watching PSU or thinking about PSU take some of the joy out of college football? I wish they were no longer in our conference.

+1 I have the same feeling. Every time I think of Penn State....yeah, I don't know. Just kind of cringe a little.

 

[cncmin]

Gopher07 - a thing about your "defense" analysis. Recall that a bad Gopher offense against Iowa and Michigan contributed to their higher ranking. Not sure the Gophers would fail so miserably if played next weekend compared to when they were clueless just 4 weeks ago.

 

[GophersInIowa]

They have one definite playmaker in Allen Robinson, who is a beast at WR, and a pretty decent RB in Bill Belton who has had some success lately. But, they have also struggled with some of the competition they have played as of late, I.E., losing to Inidiana and needing OT to beat an improved, but not great, Illinois team. I really don't know what to think about the PSU team.

So, I think it comes down to trying to limit those two guys offensively, as well as creating some turnovers and protecting the football. We do that, we win.

Robinson is by far their biggest threat on the outside. I wonder if we'll do a ton of man to man on him with a safety over the top on his side? Make the other guys beat us.

 

[Sports_Realist]

In the recent past, until the past few weeks, when it has appeared the Gophers were about to reach the summit, they've gone tumbling down the mountain instead. I'm hoping we can continue to break the cycle instead of getting let down again. Looking ahead, we can beat Wisconsin, but it'll be very tough. Luckily it's at home. A win at Michigan State seems unlikely right now. That makes beating Penn State even more vital. Get that eighth win. The players and coaching staff will need to be especially diligent about execution and focus, confident not cocky or looking ahead, and prepared to deal with adversity should any pitfalls come up like going behind early or facing an injury to a key player.

 

[cncmin]

Robinson is by far their biggest threat on the outside. I wonder if we'll do a ton of man to man on him with a safety over the top on his side? Make the other guys beat us.

The "other guys" are no slouches. The TE James is quite good, and the other receivers pretty good too. Hackenberg is one of the most immobile QBs I've ever seen. Have to use that to defensive advantage. PSU will probably score upwards of 24-30. The key in this game is to keep up/ahead and score points on offense.

 

[Gopher07]

Gopher07 - a thing about your "defense" analysis. Recall that a bad Gopher offense against Iowa and Michigan contributed to their higher ranking. Not sure the Gophers would fail so miserably if played next weekend compared to when they were clueless just 4 weeks ago.

I mean, yes, it certainly helped them, but if you exclude the Minnesota game, Michigan would still be 37th and Iowa would still be 18th in total defense. They are, by leaps and bounds, the best defenses we've played this year. Penn State will be somewhere between them and the other seven teams we've played.

 

[e.bigelow]

Robinson is by far their biggest threat on the outside. I wonder if we'll do a ton of man to man on him with a safety over the top on his side? Make the other guys beat us.

Good question. I looked at his stats and he has almost 40 receptions more than there second leading reciever. (Just looked for clarification, Robinson has 66, the next closet is Felder with 27 rec., both of whom have more recpetions than our leading WR, Engel at 22.) So, I think it is pretty clear what there offense is going to try to do.

I am guessing Robinson will get his receptions and "targets" throughout the game, it is just a matter of can we limit those opportunities for him and keep him under wraps, so to speak, to, like your said, make someone else beat us.

 

[Rescooter]

Just remember; this is for the Governor's Bell. Anything can happen.

Hackenberg is leading the B1G in passing and Robinson is leading in receiving...over 1/2 of PSU receiving yards. Shut them down and you shut down most of PSU. Hackenberg has been sacked 19 times, so expect to see some quick outs, so it will keep our LBs and Corners busy. Because of the success IU had airing it out, I think they'll commit to the pass.

 

[Sparlimb]

Hackenberg (their QB) was a 5 star recruit but has the freshmen mistake bug like most kids his age. He is VERY prone to turnovers, if you can get proper pressure on him. If we get up early in this game, like we did last week, I don't see PSU coming back. If we get down big, then we're the team in deep trouble. All that said, I expect a slug fest between two teams that look evenly matched and it will come down to a field goal or overtime.

 

[jaymil]

Illinois just held these guys to 17 points in regulation and that game was played @ Penn State. As long as we do a decent job against their run game and get some pressure on Hackenberg we should be fine. Robinson will make a few plays, that's basically inevitable. The rest of their offense is pretty average. Their defense has struggled at times this year, with the way our offense has been rolling I expect us to score around 30 points as long as we take care of the ball. My concern about this game is on the mental side. We've been able to play with a chip on our shoulder the past 3 games being pretty heavy underdogs. Now we're the favorite. How will the team respond? If we keep playing like we have something to prove I expect us to win this game by 10-14 points.

 

[e.bigelow]

Illinois just held these guys to 17 points in regulation and that game was played @ Penn State. As long as we do a decent job against their run game and get some pressure on Hackenberg we should be fine. Robinson will make a few plays, that's basically inevitable. The rest of their offense is pretty average. Their defense has struggled at times this year, with the way our offense has been rolling I expect us to score around 30 points as long as we take care of the ball. My concern about this game is on the mental side. We've been able to play with a chip on our shoulder the past 3 games being pretty heavy underdogs. Now we're the favorite. How will the team respond? If we keep playing like we have something to prove I expect us to win this game by 10-14 points.

Good point jaymil. I think you can hear that from the coaches reiterate after the last few W's about 'now, we've reset that goal' and 'we're back to what goal we wrote on the board the begining of the season'. So, I would like to think that the coaching staff has this team really focused. At least, I hope that's the case.

 

[Killjoy]

Gopher07 - a thing about your "defense" analysis. Recall that a bad Gopher offense against Iowa and Michigan contributed to their higher ranking. Not sure the Gophers would fail so miserably if played next weekend compared to when they were clueless just 4 weeks ago.

+1 Exactly. Our offense that is playing is quite different than the one that played against Iowa and Michigan. A more germane analysis now would be how we match up against their Penn States defensive strengths and weaknesses today.

 

[cncmin]

I mean, yes, it certainly helped them, but if you exclude the Minnesota game, Michigan would still be 37th and Iowa would still be 18th in total defense. They are, by leaps and bounds, the best defenses we've played this year. Penn State will be somewhere between them and the other seven teams we've played.

I agree that Iowa has a pretty decent defense. Michigan, not so much.

 

[gopherdudepart2]

I fully expect Penn State to copycat what Michigan did with Fuenchess against Gophers

Penn State is going to try and attack us like Michigan and Iowa did with select play action plays to the Tight ends(Robinson will play there role of Fuenchess and run similar routes).
They are going to try and do what those two teams did to us dominate time of posession and the line of scrimmage and force the Gophers to go three and out a lot. This will be a game of attrition and the Gophers are going to have to be paitent and physical up front and pound out one first down at a time. The D line too will need to have there big boy pants on .
I fully expect a close game in to the fourth quarter. Illinois played Penn State tough because Penn State was probably over looking them and thought they could just show up and win the game. Penn State will not do that against the Gophers. We have there attention after three consecutive wins(have recent history of playing Penn State tough) so Penn State knows the Gophers are capable and competitive football team that they will be up to play. Gophers are going to have to match there intensity as these guys are going to come out fired up to prove they are still Penn State.
Again we will need the defense to create a couple turnovers as our main quarterbacks injury is going to hamper his mobility. The offenisve line is going to have to step up and hold there blocks longer and ignore the pain and the fatigue. One thing Indiana was able to do was generate pressure on our running game by blitzing there linebackers in to the two and three gaps in the second half. I expect Penn State to mimic this tactic.

We are going to have to be able to run and execute the stretch plays to the outside as I fully expect Penn State will attempt the same stratagey blitz there linebackers up the gutt to try and disrupt our running game because we have been effective between the tackles and with the inside trap plays. They will probably ignore our motion more and our shifts to the right more than anyone else. Were going to have to catch them off guard by running some of those jet sweeps to some unexpected people. Cobb is now a marked man, he is going to have to continue to jump cut and make plays on his own as they will be gunning for him(he will need a little help from the other guys although he is our warhorse). This will not be an easy football game, this is going to a physical strap your helmet on Big 10 type of game, with cold weather, and some snot bubbling hits, they always are against Penn State. They may be down a few scholarships but that is still a very talented football team. There quarterback(he is very good for a freshman) is going to be every bit as effective as the second guy from Indiana was. Our defense is going to have be sound in there tackling and get disciplined to maintain the right angles and keep things in front of the Gophers. Wilson #5 is now a guy they are going to try to block up as everyone knows he is making plays. He will need his head on a swivel as there going after him.
Anyone expecting the Gophers to walk on the field and blow these guys out or be dominate is already fooling themselves because of that woeful Illinois game. This game is big, one of two trophy games (even if meaningless) left and we need to win this one and put that bell in the case to build on trying to win the Axe. Mike Henry and some guys like Goodger that were normally not the focus of the last two games in the offense need to get open and catch the wheel routes and some of those tight end drags. Max Williams is another marked man and they will definately try and take him away now that he showed up on film with an explosive play. It's going to be cold and miserable weather we already know that, so let's try to make the best of it as fans and get behind the Gophers.

 

[cncmin]

Penn State is going to try and attack us like Michigan and Iowa did with select play action plays to the Tight ends(Robinson will play there role of Fuenchess and run similar routes).

I'm really confused. Funchess is a TE. Robinson is a WR. Robinson probably can't play TE, as he's likely not big enough to block in the running game. But if he does, wouldn't the Gophers just play him as if he were a WR lining up at the TE position?

Robinson is great at both the short and long passing game. Playing him at TE would make little sense. But what do I know, I guess.

They are going to try and do what those two teams did to us dominate time of posession and the line of scrimmage and force the Gophers to go three and out a lot.

LOL, you don't say. Well, let's hope you're wrong, and that PSU's plan is to let the Gophers score a bunch of TDs. Otherwise, if they stick to their plan, I think we're totally screwed.

 

[Gopher07]

+1 Exactly. Our offense that is playing is quite different than the one that played against Iowa and Michigan. A more germane analysis now would be how we match up against their Penn States defensive strengths and weaknesses today.

Limiting games in the analysis overemphasizes the effects of each individual game, which is why I've looked at the largest possible sample size (season-to-date). But, how about we just look at the past three weeks.

Minnesota's offense has averaged 434 yards per game, against teams that give up an average of 441 yards per game (Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana in aggregate).

Penn State is giving up 496 per game, against teams that gain an average of 434 yards per game (Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois in aggregate).

The Ohio State game was a massive outlier for them, which skews this (particularly with the small sample size of games). Against Michigan and Illinois only, they surrendered an average of 400 yards per game versus MI/IL's aggregated 407 yard average.

Balanced for statistical quality of competition, I would argue our offense is slightly below average, and their defense is slightly above average. That's all I'm trying to say. We will need a good offensive effort to put up a bunch of points, which I think we can do.

 

[gopherdudepart2]

I didn't mean they will play Robinson like a tight end but will run similar routes

There going to line him up all over the place and try and get him some mismatches against a linebacker on a seam route or some of those pick routes like Michigan did with Fuenchess. Fuenchess lined up wide on multiple ocassions against the Gophers. Just expect Penn State to try and run some similar routes to get him isolated in one on one match ups with a Safety or linebacker. Robinson is there go to receiver as Fuenchess is for Michigan as is the tight end for Iowa. They will run similar play action plays to try and connect on some of those same routes. There quarterback is not a spread guy so I don't expect them to run any option pitches but you never know in this game of college football. It is a copy cat league and game just as much as the NFL.

 

[mcal24]

+1 Exactly. Our offense that is playing is quite different than the one that played against Iowa and Michigan. A more germane analysis now would be how we match up against their Penn States defensive strengths and weaknesses today.

I think part of it is the mentality of the other teams too. There's a difference to players when you saw Minnesota on your schedule a month ago to when you see Minnesota on your schedule now.

 

[cncmin]

Limiting games in the analysis overemphasizes the effects of each individual game, which is why I've looked at the largest possible sample size (season-to-date). But, how about we just look at the past three weeks.

Minnesota's offense has averaged 434 yards per game, against teams that give up an average of 441 yards per game (Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana in aggregate).

Penn State is giving up 496 per game, against teams that gain an average of 434 yards per game (Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois in aggregate).

The Ohio State game was a massive outlier for them, which skews this (particularly with the small sample size of games). Against Michigan and Illinois only, they surrendered an average of 400 yards per game versus MI/IL's aggregated 407 yard average.

Balanced for statistical quality of competition, I would argue our offense is slightly below average, and their defense is slightly above average. That's all I'm trying to say. We will need a good offensive effort to put up a bunch of points, which I think we can do.

This is a nice analysis. Thanks, G07. One thing to keep in mind is that the Gophers' offensive mindset really didn't get ultra-aggressive until the second half of that NW game, at which point and since, everything has clicked. Perhaps we should be looking at 2.5 games, in the Gophers' case. If you multiply the 2nd half of the NW game by 2 and use that instead, do the stats change much?

 

[cncmin]

There going to line him up all over the place and try and get him some mismatches against a linebacker on a seam route or some of those pick routes like Michigan did with Fuenchess. Fuenchess lined up wide on multiple ocassions against the Gophers. Just expect Penn State to try and run some similar routes to get him isolated in one on one match ups with a Safety or linebacker. Robinson is there go to receiver as Fuenchess is for Michigan as is the tight end for Iowa. They will run similar play action plays to try and connect on some of those same routes. There quarterback is not a spread guy so I don't expect them to run any option pitches but you never know in this game of college football. It is a copy cat league and game just as much as the NFL.

I get ya. I think if Claeys allows any mismatches where the Gophers fail to put a d-back or two or three on and eyeballing Robinson, then honestly, Claeys will have failed as a defensive coordinator. I trust Claeys to install a good gameplan, which against PSU means limiting Robinson and stopping the run.