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bga1 said:
Good thinking. When we see the curve on cases start to go back down in a week or two, start dipping your toes in. Until then, it's going to be dangerous. Too much fear. We just need some good news that shuts down the fear mongerers.
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I think this levels out faster than people think for a variety of reasons. First being of course the shear volume of publicity, the increased awareness, the precautions, the increased information daily.

But also because I think people are going to be much much more self-aware when it comes to showing symptoms. In years past with the flu, thousands would just press on and go to work, risk passing it to others. Now? With this? I think people showing any signs at all are going to be much more apt to self-quarantine, particularly with so many things being shut down anyway. No sense in venturing out if you have symptoms and who the hell wants to be the one to infect their family member or co-worker?
 



Started some buying earlier this morning. Time to make fortunes folks.
 


Ogee Oglethorpe said:
I think this levels out faster than people think for a variety of reasons. First being of course the shear volume of publicity, the increased awareness, the precautions, the increased information daily.

But also because I think people are going to be much much more self-aware when it comes to showing symptoms. In years past with the flu, thousands would just press on and go to work, risk passing it to others. Now? With this? I think people showing any signs at all are going to be much more apt to self-quarantine, particularly with so many things being shut down anyway. No sense in venturing out if you have symptoms and who the hell wants to be the one to infect their family member or co-worker?
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I strongly hope your second paragraph comes true. Not only for coronavirus, but for future flu seasons as well. There's societal pressure in a lot of industries to not take time off while sick, and it's dumb.

For anyone that is ever sick (now or in the future), STAY THE F*** HOME.
 

mplarson7 said:
I strongly hope your second paragraph comes true. Not only for coronavirus, but for future flu seasons as well. There's societal pressure in a lot of industries to not take time off while sick, and it's dumb.

For anyone that is ever sick (now or in the future), STAY THE F*** HOME.
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One can only stay home if work provides appropriate sick leave. Many do not. If your choice is to stay home without pay because you have a cough and sniffles, or go to work with a cough and sniffles, almost everyone will do the latter.

I expect some significant new laws to be made based on this crisis.
 

cncmin said:
One can only stay home if work provides appropriate sick leave. Many do not. If your choice is to stay home without pay because you have a cough and sniffles, or go to work with a cough and sniffles, almost everyone will do the latter.

I expect some significant new laws to be made based on this crisis.
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I agree on a lot of people not getting sick leave. But a lot of people DO get it, but there is so much pressure from within their industry that they just don't take it.

Classic example are healthcare workers. Doctors in particular are usually encouraged to keep seeing patients even when they are sick. There are tons of stories of residents taking IV fluids in between patient rounds while fighting the flu.
 

mplarson7 said:
I agree on a lot of people not getting sick leave. But a lot of people DO get it, but there is so much pressure from within their industry that they just don't take it.

Classic example are healthcare workers. Doctors in particular are usually encouraged to keep seeing patients even when they are sick. There are tons of stories of residents taking IV fluids in between patient rounds while fighting the flu.
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If people are to stay home, it's going to take a lot more action than just additional sick leave. In this particular case, we need backup medical staff. For the price tags we pay in this country for medical care, you wouldn't think this would ever be an issue, but the reality is that our healthcare system simply isn't anywhere near as good as it should be, especially relative to what we pay for it.
 




howeda7 said:
Jared's on the outs with Don. I guess this is an upgrade?
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I'd consider an upgrade getting rid of FOX "News" and Talk Radio personalities from the Administration, not adding more. Having an incompetent fraud, FOX "News", and Talk Radio run our country has gotten us to today's point.
 

Wait for the earnings reports in a month and official GDP numbers. There's room to drop.
 

Keep the following data in mind, given the economic data of the past few days. The most recent poll numbers, just before the recession starts to sink in, show about 52-55% disapproval, and about 40-45% approval. I'm curious if they move much from here; and if they do, if they recover to this point as we start to pull back out when this all ends.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
 



cncmin said:
Keep the following data in mind, given the economic data of the past few days. The most recent poll numbers, just before the recession starts to sink in, show about 52-55% disapproval, and about 40-45% approval. I'm curious if they move much from here; and if they do, if they recover to this point as we start to pull back out when this all ends.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
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All about Trump for you and a few other imbeciles.

And you complain about others doing the same thing. Idiot.
 

TruthSeeker said:
Wait for the earnings reports in a month and official GDP numbers. There's room to drop.
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I do wonder how much is already going to be priced in due to the fear sell off. It's going to be interesting to watch.
 

cncmin said:
I'd consider an upgrade getting rid of FOX "News" and Talk Radio personalities from the Administration, not adding more. Having an incompetent fraud, FOX "News", and Talk Radio run our country has gotten us to today's point.
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All Presidents go with what they know. In this case it's close family and the people he watches on the teevee.
 

mplarson7 said:
I strongly hope your second paragraph comes true. Not only for coronavirus, but for future flu seasons as well. There's societal pressure in a lot of industries to not take time off while sick, and it's dumb.

For anyone that is ever sick (now or in the future), STAY THE F*** HOME.
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Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way anymore. At best companies provide PTO. Employees have to practically be dead to not show up for work because they don't want to give up vacation time.
 


cncmin said:
One can only stay home if work provides appropriate sick leave. Many do not. If your choice is to stay home without pay because you have a cough and sniffles, or go to work with a cough and sniffles, almost everyone will do the latter.

I expect some significant new laws to be made based on this crisis.
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Fortunately, my company, my sisters, brothers, his girlfriends, my mothers, all have staff working from home. Not an ideal situation....since the virtual computing environment is a bit more clunky.....but it works. I'm certainly not complaining.

As for the market....I'm hoping that it doesn't start recovering quite yet. My home sale doesn't close for another few weeks. I wouldn't mind investing before the recovery occurs.
 


As stocks tumble to the lowest level since early in Trump's term, billionaire Ackman asks Trump to shut down the whole country for 30 days. "Hell is coming. Capitalism does not work in an 18-month shutdown. Capitalism can work in a 30-day shutdown."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...oronavirus-crisis/ar-BB11knGE?ocid=spartandhp

Meanwhile, U.S. oil prices have hit their lowest mark since early in Bush Jr.'s first term. It's a good thing we invested so much in expanding fossil fuel production instead of nuclear, wind, and solar, all of which would give us strong, near-carbon-free energy, and none of which would be subject to these market problems.

I wonder what kind of environmental problems are left behind by abandoned oil or gas wells. Probably none.
 

An interesting question now becomes.....any stocks that interest you in particular? Does anyone roll with Boeing at a certain point? Less about a month ago, their stock sat around $330/share. Yesterday it edged just below $100 for a moment.

Oil companies like Chevron and Exxon have both seen their stocks dip by nearly 50% in the last month and over 50% since January 1st. Have to think that the bottom is nearing for them. Obviously you don't put all your eggs in one basket....especially in the case of Boeing. But it will be interesting from here on.
 

Hell....crude oil WTI is far lower than I think anyone could have predicted.
 

Dow holding relatively steady this morning so far, around yesterday's closing.

Can't keep dropping 1-2k points per day forever, obviously.

Wonder at this point, what % of people who were likely candidates to "get out" or "get in", have done so?
 

MplsGopher said:
Dow holding relatively steady this morning so far, around yesterday's closing.

Can't keep dropping 1-2k points per day forever, obviously.

Wonder at this point, what % of people who were likely candidates to "get out" or "get in", have done so?
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Not me, not yet
 



Several more retailers have announced they are closing today. If the week-end goes poorly there will be more on Monday.
 

Another reasonably steady day today, it appears. Total variation < 1k. So far. Mean around 20k.
 

From today's options market: over 250,000 SPY June 20 Puts at $0.05, which means that one is betting on roughly a 91% fall from here by mid June. a $1.25 million bet.
 

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