Market Watch

Donate To GopherHole
short ornery norwegian said:
Sunday afternoon the Fed announces an interest rate cut and using Fed funds to purchase more treasury notes to prop up the economy.

at about 7:30pm CDT Sunday, Dow futures and S & P futures were DOWN 5%. More economists predicting a recession.
Click to expand...
The Fed just fired all their bullets at once. Not great.
 

First circuit breaker in the books for the day, 2nd one is starting to get pretty close.
 


bga1 said:
Long term market fundamental prospects are excellent. The storm is still underway. More storms will come. They will pass. I just listened to a market expert who says that most all of the worst case scenarios for this particular situation have been priced into the market already.
Click to expand...
This aged well.
 




bga1 said:
What is long term to you? Two days? Sell your stock, if you have any. Go ahead. Do it.
Click to expand...
Lol.

A true Trump bobo.

"The sun wont set."

Sun sets.

"The sun didn't set. And I didnt say it wouldnt set anyway. But if it did, it'd be tremendous. MAGA hats on sale in the rear!"
 





bottlebass said:
I still think the bottom is below 20.
Click to expand...
Damn. Do I go in today, or wait. Thought I might've missed it when it shot back to 23. Now back to 21.

Would love to go in at 20, if that is within 1k of the true bottom ... but do I dare wait ...
 

MplsGopher said:
Damn. Do I go in today, or wait. Thought I might've missed it when it shot back to 23. Now back to 21.

Would love to go in at 20, if that is within 1k of the true bottom ... but do I dare wait ...
Click to expand...
I'm no investing expert. Just a hobby of mine. I don't think we are at the bottom but depending on how much you pulled out and when you pulled out you could hedge your bet by buying half back in now.
 

from my e-mail inbox at work from the Ipsos market research company:

Royce Mendes, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said
“Given how fluid the situation is, it’s difficult to have a lot of confidence in any forecast, but the risks of a recession are very high at the moment.”

In a Bloomberg survey of economists polled last week, the chance of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months was at 45% – the highest odds since February 2009 – the global financial crisis.

Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group, who’s reduced his global growth forecasts for a third week in a row – sees the U.S. economy growing just 0.5% this year – a steep drop from 2.3% last year.

“Given the wave of cancellations and shutdowns, we look for no growth in the first quarter, a deep drop in the second quarter, and then a firmer recovery in the second half of the year,” said Porter.
 

Wow, almost went sub 20 there at the end. That was a crazy dive...
 



bottlebass said:
Wow, almost went sub 20 there at the end. That was a crazy dive...
Click to expand...
Trump's 3:30 pep rally didn't have the same effect today. I guess Lou Dobbs won't be getting a signed copy of today's market.
 

China's economy is going to CONTRACT by 6% for the first quarter compared with the same period a year ago. That looks like America's future for the second quarter and probably for some time after that.

Coronavirus devastates China's economy and the 'nightmare' is not over

China's economy was devastated by the novel coronavirus outbreak in the first two months of the year, according to data published Monday, and analysts say the nightmare is far from over.

Retail sales plunged 20.5% during January and February over the same period in 2019, industrial output was down 13.5%, and fixed asset investment fell by nearly 25%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. All three data points were much weaker than analysts were expecting, and the decline in industrial production was the sharpest contraction on record.

The data for March could be even worse. "The slump in February was diluted in the data by being averaged with January, when most of the disruptions were yet to be felt," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics.

Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group, said his "best guess" is that China's $14 trillion economy will contract by 6% in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago. "Now it is clear it would be the worst in almost 50 years," he said. The last time China experienced a shrinking economy was in 1976, when Communist Party leader Mao Zedong's death ended a decade-long social and economic tumult in China.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy may improve in the second quarter, as businesses return to work and as various policy measures, including interest rate cuts, liquidity injections and cuts to taxes and fees, filter through the economy.

But analysts said the recovery is likely to be very weak given a spike in Chinese unemployment, which will depress consumer spending, and the global spread of the virus, which will hold back exports even as factories return to normal operations. China's unemployment rate has shot higher, up to 6.3% in February from 5.2% in December.

Read complete article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/china-economy-coronavirus/index.html
 
Last edited:

Well, there's a silver lining: stocks have an absolute floor at 0 (zero). Unlike bonds, they can't go negative, unless you're trading on margin or something (never advisable).
 

Happy Days are Here Again! DOW up 356 at this hour ?
 

You can SEE in real time the reactions.

- 955am it goes sub-20, stays there for only 5-10 minutes. The sub-20 obviously was a buy trigger for a significant number of people
- 1215pm up to 21.3 territory, sell trigger for people trying to salvage what they can and get out

- on the way back down now, but flatter than the initial sell-off, around 20.5
 

I have one account that utilizes Ray Dalio's asset allocation model. It's averaged around 9% per year. It's worst year was 2008 when it was down 3%, and has currently only declined about 4% in this market.

- 15% Intermediate bonds
- 40% Long-term bonds
- 30% Global stocks
- 7.5% Gold
- 7.5% Commodities
 

Hopefully the idiots who were buying stocks on margin are getting wiped out. When that happens the markets will normalize.
 

The market is now below where it was on 1/20/17.
 

19.1, down 2k since opening. Kudos to those who said the bottom would be sub-20
 



John Galt said:
Hopefully the idiots who were buying stocks on margin are getting wiped out. When that happens the markets will normalize.
Click to expand...
People with money are going to spend money when they think the time is appropriate. I don't see people hanging onto their investment money indefinitely. If/when the rebound happens, it will be fast and furious.

A lot of people see opportunity in times like this, whether anyone likes it or not.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
People with money are going to spend money when they think the time is appropriate. I don't see people hanging onto their investment money indefinitely. If/when the rebound happens, it will be fast and furious.

A lot of people see opportunity in times like this, whether anyone likes it or not.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I'm getting ready to invest...just waiting for a bit more drop, as I don't think we've bottomed out yet.
 

technically, the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters with declines in the GDP.

Looked but could not immediately find a correlation of recessions to movement in the stock market.

found this:
The stock market typically continues to decline sharply for several months during a recession. It historically bottoms out approximately six months after the start of a recession and usually starts to rally before the economy picks up.

More data:
There have been 11 recessions since WWII. Shortest duration was 6 months. Longest duration was 18 months from 2007-2009. the S & P dropped 37% during that period.

The recession from 1973-75 saw a 13% drop in the S & P.
 

cncmin said:
Honestly, I'm getting ready to invest...just waiting for a bit more drop, as I don't think we've bottomed out yet.
Click to expand...
I've gone in twice in the last week. But we're not at the bottom. That will come when the death #'s start to spike.
 

cncmin said:
Honestly, I'm getting ready to invest...just waiting for a bit more drop, as I don't think we've bottomed out yet.
Click to expand...
Good thinking. When we see the curve on cases start to go back down in a week or two, start dipping your toes in. Until then, it's going to be dangerous. Too much fear. We just need some good news that shuts down the fear mongerers.
 


You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom