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bottlebass

bottlebass

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As someone else said in the corona virus thread if this turns into a world recession this could be a once in a decade investment opportunity. Want to start making predictions on when and what the market bottom will be?

The feds just did an emergency rate cut. This is getting serious!
 

It would be a great time to consolidate student loans to a lower rate. Bernicorns aren't real.
 


The markets are broken. The Fed lost control a while ago. We are Japan.
 

Section2 said:
The Fed lost control a while ago.
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It's sad to think about what you'd be willing to cheer on burning to the ground, to have a once in a lifetime chance to implement your unproven, bankrupt policy dreams.
 


Last Fri the Dow was down to 24.7, now it's back up in the 26's.

I was waiting to see if it was going to get down around the Dec 2018 level, before thinking about doing a big load in.
 

I am voting for the Bernicorn! It 's a magical beast that appears once/generation.
 

bottlebass said:
As someone else said in the corona virus thread if this turns into a world recession this could be a once in a decade investment opportunity. Want to start making predictions on when and what the market bottom will be?

The feds just did an emergency rate cut. This is getting serious!
Click to expand...
I thought 23K. I'm not sure that's low enough. There are all sorts of stories on online of people who have the symptoms and can't get tested. We have no idea how widespread this already is. I guess ignorance is bliss thanks to our incompetent CDC but it won't hold.
 

howeda7 said:
I thought 23K. I'm not sure that's low enough. There are all sorts of stories on online of people who have the symptoms and can't get tested. We have no idea how widespread this already is. I guess ignorance is bliss thanks to our incompetent CDC but it won't hold.
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a competent CDC would have accurate numbers by now.
 



howeda7 said:
I thought 23K. I'm not sure that's low enough. There are all sorts of stories on online of people who have the symptoms and can't get tested. We have no idea how widespread this already is. I guess ignorance is bliss thanks to our incompetent CDC but it won't hold.
Click to expand...
Last week I was thinking sub 20k. Now that China's numbers are improving that might be too aggressive. We won't be able to quarantine and stop the spread like china though...
 

bottlebass said:
Last week I was thinking sub 20k. Now that China's numbers are improving that might be too aggressive. We won't be able to quarantine and stop the spread like china though...
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We also haven't really felt the supply disruptions yet. Those will still come, but if China recovers rapidly it won't be that bad.
 

Anybody try to go grocery shopping the last couple days? Stores shelves are empty.
 

Dow up to 26.9 territory as of 330pm Eastern.

Wonder if the storm has passed?
 



MplsGopher said:
Dow up to 26.9 territory as of 330pm Eastern.

Wonder if the storm has passed?
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Long term market fundamental prospects are excellent. The storm is still underway. More storms will come. They will pass. I just listened to a market expert who says that most all of the worst case scenarios for this particular situation have been priced into the market already.
 

MplsGopher said:
Dow up to 26.9 territory as of 330pm Eastern.

Wonder if the storm has passed?
Click to expand...
Not even close. More and more travel is getting cancelled . Events are getting cancelled. Supply shortages are about to hit.
 

It doesn't take much imagination to see the new corona virus leading us into recession. Here's hoping that doesn't happen as I don't want to live in a cardboard box.
 

bga1 said:
Long term market fundamental prospects are excellent. The storm is still underway. More storms will come. They will pass. I just listened to a market expert who says that most all of the worst case scenarios for this particular situation have been priced into the market already.
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Was it 2?
 

Up... down... up.. down.... Up tomorrow? Who wants to throw a bunch of money in today?
 






An interesting prediction from Hayes and an interesting suggestion by Yglesias

 

justthefacts said:
An interesting prediction from Hayes and an interesting suggestion by Yglesias

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I look forward to Beeg telling why Trump's massive fiscal stimulous package is good and right and not at all a violation of fiscal conservatism unlike that evil Obama's. 2 will furrow his brow and "wait to see."
 

Dow hit roughly 29,500 on Feb 12. Dropped to 25,400 on Feb 28. That is a drop of 13.9% which is a correction - but not a bear market yet.

There have been 26 market corrections since WWII with an average drop of 13.7%. Recoveries have taken 4 months on average.

Now - if it becomes a bear market (drop of 20% or more), that is a different kettle of fish.

There have been 12 bear markets since WWII, with an average drop of roughly 30% over a 14-month period, and the average recovery time is 24 months.

the last bear market was from October 2007 to March 2009. The market dropped 57% and took more than 4 years to recover. that is the worst bear market since WWII.
 


This has been a really interesting roller-coaster week or so;

DOW PLUNGES!!!! Front Page, Headline News

Dow surges back. Page 12 news. Nothing to see here.
 

Sounds like the other thing driving the markets is the drop in oil prices.

From "oil price.com" -- (story filed at 5:00pm on Sunday, March 8)

Russia has just sparked what may end up being among the ugliest oil price wars in recent history. And Saudi Arabia is firing back. As the two oil superpowers face-off, American oil companies may end up as the biggest victims. .........
Now some oil analysts are anticipating barrel prices as low as $20 within the year. Some experts have suggested that Russia's move is intended to counter U.S. shale producers and hit back against the U.S. for targeting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany......
Within seconds of the market opening on Sunday night, oil prices plummeted as much as 30 percent, driving crude to its lowest level in four years. The Brent crude benchmark fell from $45 a barrel to $36.44 at the time of writing, while WTI plummeted from $40.45 to $32.97, in one of the single worst drops in recent history.

crude oil price war - and a potential global pandemic. In an election year.

And I was planning to retire in less than 2 years.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
 


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