Joey Brackets' latest Bracketology

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SI.com's Bracket Watch has the Gophers in an 8/9 game with New Mexico, and Florida awaiting the winner.
 



I notice how less fun these are to follow when your favorite team loses to teams its should beat. Another way of puting it is, its a lot more fun worrying about what your seed is going to be instead of worrying about if your team is going to be seeded at all.
 

bemidjigopher said:
Well they're not punishing us too much for losing Dre
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This factor hasn't had much discussion here. I'd like SS's thoughts. The comittee has taken injuries into account before, if said player is back healthly for the tournament. Is it possible that 8-10 would be good enough to get us in if Dre is back and playing? I'd rather not find out, but I'm not sure if they've changed this criteria at all in recent years? The last I remember it coming up was when St. Mary's was missing a star player and once when Cincy did. In the later case it was only with regards to whether they would still get a #1 seed.
 

howeda7 said:
This factor hasn't had much discussion here. I'd like SS's thoughts. The comittee has taken injuries into account before, if said player is back healthly for the tournament. Is it possible that 8-10 would be good enough to get us in if Dre is back and playing? I'd rather not find out, but I'm not sure if they've changed this criteria at all in recent years? The last I remember it coming up was when St. Mary's was missing a star player and once when Cincy did. In the later case it was only with regards to whether they would still get a #1 seed.
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They'll look at injuries, sure, but I suspect in the end the main thing they're looking at is who you played, who you beat, who beat you, and where you played 'em.

In the end, you are what your record says you are, regardless of injuries. With or without Andre, if the Gophers are 8-10 heading into Indianapolis they're likely gonna' need to get some work done there. If they're 9-9, we're looking at a stress-free Selection Sunday.
 



Everybody knows this, but regardless of what the projections are right now, it's as simple as: If we want to make the tournament period, we have to win a bunch games and finish well! There's less and less room for error now.
 

GameDay said:
Everybody knows this, but regardless of what the projections are right now, it's as simple as: If we want to make the tournament period, we have to win a bunch games and finish well! There's less and less room for error now.
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Exactly. The fact that some of the players were bawling after the Northwestern game tells me they're at least somewhat aware of how damaging that loss could end up being, especially at this point in the season. There's less time to "get it back", so to speak. Winning @ Purdue would be a good start.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Exactly. The fact that some of the players were bawling after the Northwestern game tells me they're at least somewhat aware of how damaging that loss could end up being, especially at this point in the season. There's less time to "get it back", so to speak. Winning @ Purdue would be a good start.
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Hopefully we can snap out of the funk soon. It was apparent that the wisky win seemed to be on adrenalin. Losing your top scorer and best player is a huge loss for a team like us. We are not MSU by any means. Losing our best player is a huge blow.

That said. It is what it is and we need a couple wins in the worse way. Dre won't be healthy when he does come back so we need to soldier on...
 





SelectionSunday said:
Saturday is a "2-for-1" for Gophers. They can solidify their current tenuous NCAA position with a win, while at the same time delivering a serious blow to the Hoosiers' hopes. Another golden opportunity awaits, despite the frustrating 3-game skid.
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I hope for the best but when I look at the remaining schedule I just don't see the boys getting to 9-9. 7-11 is very possible as they are currently playing. These last three games have been a disaster.

Still, I love these guys and this coach. Better days are ahead. Right?
 

Section201 said:
I hope for the best but when I look at the remaining schedule I just don't see the boys getting to 9-9. 7-11 is very possible as they are currently playing. These last three games have been a disaster.

Still, I love these guys and this coach. Better days are ahead. Right?
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I agree, it's going to be difficult to get to 9-9, which would punch their ticket. With the recent skid I'm resigned to the fact that 8-10 has now become the more reasonable goal. Have amended my thought process to, gotta' get to 8-10 so that at least there's a chance to make the NCAA with a good performance (2 wins) in Indy. But like you said, even 8-10 is far from a shoo-in.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I agree, it's going to be difficult to get to 9-9, which would punch their ticket. With the recent skid I'm resigned to the fact that 8-10 has now become the more reasonable goal. Now I've switched my thought process to, gotta' get to 8-10 so that at least there's a chance to make the NCAA with a good performance (2 wins) in Indy. But like you said, even 8-10 is far from a shoo-in.[/QUOT
If Joey Brackets still has us in as solidly as a 10 seed despite the skid, than I think we're safe at 8-10. The way I see it beat IU, Illini, PSU and NW, we hit eight and at that point it becomes can we beat Iowa at home, or steal one at OSU or Wisconsin or scUM. Must win on Saturday
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howeda7 said:
As frustrating as the last 2 games are, I think we'd have all taken a 10 seed at this point when the season started. We're 1-3 spots away from Dayton and 5-8 spots away from the Bubble. Saturday is a must win.
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I actually like our draw, the one seed is Syracuse and I think we match up well with Pitt and Nova, much rather have this than the one we had as an 8 seed
 

Being a 10, 11 or even a 12 is preferable to being an 8 or 9 if you have Sweet 16 dreams.
 

bemidjigopher said:
I actually like our draw, the one seed is Syracuse and I think we match up well with Pitt and Nova, much rather have this than the one we had as an 8 seed
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Talking about the draw at this point is a ridiculous waste of time.

Bottom line is they need to win four more games which will be tough, and the right other teams have to keep losing in other conferences.
This resume for the Gophers looks weak with the conference losses we have, but none are horrible losses. But if they don't get to at least 8 wins, it doesn't matter much who the one or two seed might be.
 

bemidjigopher said:
I actually like our draw, the one seed is Syracuse and I think we match up well with Pitt and Nova, much rather have this than the one we had as an 8 seed
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Stop. No need to be even bringing it up right now.
 

I know it's a long way to go, but I'm a bit pessimistic today. SS, educate me on how much effect the BIG Tournament will have on our chances. We finish 7-11. Would getting to the finals assure getting in? We finish 8-10. If we are just out of being selected, would winning 2 games get us in? I guess what I'm wondering is does a win in the tournament count over a particular team the same as in the regular season?
 

Mulligan said:
I know it's a long way to go, but I'm a bit pessimistic today. SS, educate me on how much effect the BIG Tournament will have on our chances. We finish 7-11. Would getting to the finals assure getting in? We finish 8-10. If we are just out of being selected, would winning 2 games get us in? I guess what I'm wondering is does a win in the tournament count over a particular team the same as in the regular season?
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8-10 probably requires two BTT wins to get in, depending on how they factor Dre's injury. 7-11 probably requires winning the BTT, though making it to the finals might be enough if the Gophers resume is at leat least reasonable and the selection committee doesn't want to wait until the last minute, since the B1G has the very last game of SS.
 

Mulligan said:
I know it's a long way to go, but I'm a bit pessimistic today. SS, educate me on how much effect the BIG Tournament will have on our chances. We finish 7-11. Would getting to the finals assure getting in? We finish 8-10. If we are just out of being selected, would winning 2 games get us in? I guess what I'm wondering is does a win in the tournament count over a particular team the same as in the regular season?
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Big Ten Tournament wins don't count any more than the regular season, but the great thing about the Big Ten being so strong is it affords bubble teams an opportunity to strengthen their resume (with RPI top-100 and top-50 wins). The potential to add RPI top-25/50 wins is the biggie, and those wins will be readily available (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin) from the quarterfinals on.

At this point (a lot will change between now and the BTT, the bubble teams shift daily) my hunch would be 8-10 + 2 wins in Indy would get the Gophers in the NCAA. At worst that'd mean they've added another top-50 win. They already have 4, a solid number for a bubble team. I'd even give them a slight chance of making it simply by winning their opener in Indy, especially if it's the right opponent.

One thing to remember: hope and pray that Richmond and Florida State continue to be solid and stay in the top 50. That's going to be more difficult for Richmond now that they lost their best player (Cedrick Lindsay) http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab...y-massive-blow-richmond-214544619--ncaab.html for the remainder of the season

7-11? I think that's a reach. If the Gophers are 7-11 heading to Indy, can't see any path to the NCAA tourney other than the auto bid.
 


I will remain optimistic unliker most of you, it's funny you all complain about how negative the media here is (it is) and yet most of you are just as cynical. No reason we can't beat IU, Illini, PSU and NW, boom there's your 8 wins Face
 

bemidjigopher said:
I will remain optimistic unliker most of you, it's funny you all complain about how negative the media here is (it is) and yet most of you are just as cynical. No reason we can't beat IU, Illini, PSU and NW, boom there's your 8 wins Face
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No reason we couldn't beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue. Obviously you're a much better human being than the rest of us.
 

Mulligan said:
No reason we couldn't beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue. Obviously you're a much better human being than the rest of us.
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I would say not having our best player (slash him not being healthy) is a reason....how good of a reason is debatable, but it's certainly a reason
 

bemidjigopher said:
I will remain optimistic unliker most of you, it's funny you all complain about how negative the media here is (it is) and yet most of you are just as cynical. No reason we can't beat IU, Illini, PSU and NW, boom there's your 8 wins Face
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I'm not saying it won't be done because those four games are very winnable, but we've just lost 3 games in a row against mediocre competition. Winning these four will be very difficult. Good chances of losing to Indiana, and @NW. We have to put the hammer down on Saturday night and turn things around! It definitely goes in the "Must Win" category.
 

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