Jim Souhan column: If Tubby can't turn this around, it's time to get Smart

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Moses87 said:
I'd be willing to bet there are more kids growing up Gopher fans in the Twin Cities Metro than Illini fans growing up in Chicago or Indiana fans in Indianapolis or Michigan fans in Detroit. That's the advantage any coach could exploit. Minnesota kids would stay home at a higher rate than kids in other metro areas if they had a coach they could believe in.
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I'd take that bet.
 

Moses87 said:
I'd be willing to bet there are more kids growing up Gopher fans in the Twin Cities Metro than Illini fans growing up in Chicago or Indiana fans in Indianapolis or Michigan fans in Detroit. That's the advantage any coach could exploit.
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There's no way to empirically prove this, but the Indiana fans in Indianapolis one is definitely wrong. I would guess that the others are wrong too, but it's tough to say given the split fanbases. All of this is beside the point. Your point seems to be that there is an avid Gopher following in the metro, which is laughably wrong, especially as you look among the younger demographics.
 

Bad Gopher said:
I expect the Gophers to rally yet this season after getting a second wind. They won't achieve what we had been hoping for at one time, but they will make the Tournament and hopefully win one game. The bottom line is that Tubby will get enough out of this team to save his job and do patchwork repairs on his reputation. I believe that the real trouble will begin next year, when the team will be without its dynamic senior forwards. Trevor will be virtually irreplaceable - as much for his work ethic as his physical capabilities - and even the continued development of Hollins, Hollins and Coleman won't nearly make up for it. Unless Buggs and/or Ellenson surprise us by being major contributors, we're going to be a bird or two short of being able to destroy the pigs' fortresses. There's no telling how many of the big three we end up recruiting, but one way or another it will be a major factor in the U's decision making. The combination of how many wins Tubby can squeeze out of next season and how many of the big three recruits he gets will seal his fate - but the watershed will occur next year and not this season or off season.
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The watershed moment already happened...It was in Evanston when we collapsed against NW and Andre's (and Tubby's) deficiencies as a PG were exploited with devastating effect.

I have no proof of this but I really think Rodney was benched last night for insubordination. I don't buy the last minute shoulder injury because Rodney told the BTN analyst he was good to go. Tubby lost his team and he was trying to make a stand last night. Too late. This team will probably finish 7-11 and quit on Tubby the same way the Illini quit on Weber last year. The end of the Tubby era is nearly here.
 

Wouldn't You like to Know said:
Not sure I agree with you. Flip was very good with the talent he had. When he had KG, Sam, and Spree the results were evident. He just couldn't beat the Lakers with Kobe and Shaq not many teams could. Then he had 3 winning seasons with the Pistons and then he went to Washington and well their Washington all they have is John Wall. He was 411W -326L with the Wolves, not bad.

He runs a motion offense not sure I agree with your take on the "hard to watch," factor.
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Good offensive coach, not great defensively but good enough, his biggest issue would be recruiting.
 

Moses87 said:
Too late. This team will probably finish 7-11 and quit on Tubby the same way the Illini quit on Weber last year. The end of the Tubby era is nearly here.
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Here is my take on you: You are hoping for the collapse. You seem to take joy from Tubby's short comings. I, on the other hand, still hope Tubby can turn things around but doubt it will happen based on what I have seen. I want Tubby to win here and leave on good terms.
 


dpodoll68 said:
There's no way to empirically prove this, but the Indiana fans in Indianapolis one is definitely wrong. I would guess that the others are wrong too, but it's tough to say given the split fanbases. All of this is beside the point. Your point seems to be that there is an avid Gopher following in the metro, which is laughably wrong, especially as you look among the younger demographics.
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First off, the Indianapolis metro area is split among 3 teams....Ton's of Purdue fans and a growing number of Butler fans along with OLDER fans of IU. You don't think the younger kids are becoming Butler fans??? Second, Indianapolis metro area has only 2 Million people. That's 1.4 mil less than the Twin Cities. If the kids in the Twin Cities metro area aren't growing up Gopher fans, who are they gravitating towards?
 

tikited said:
Here is my take on you: You are hoping for the collapse. You seem to take joy from Tubby's short comings. I, on the other hand, still hope Tubby can turn things around but doubt it will happen based on what I have seen. I want Tubby to win here and leave on good terms.
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I wanted that same things you want...but you get to a certain point where making a 1 and done NCAA tourney would do more harm for the future than good. Sometimes, you have to take a step back to make 3 or 4 steps forward.

We have a different philopshy but I don't call you or anybody names because of our differences. We all want the same things.
 

tikited said:
Here is my take on you: You are hoping for the collapse. You seem to take joy from Tubby's short comings. I, on the other hand, still hope Tubby can turn things around but doubt it will happen based on what I have seen. I want Tubby to win here and leave on good terms.
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Well said - that is exactly right. The last thing we want to be known as is the school that Tubby couldn't win at. If we fire him we better have a really, really good solution in hand. I f they have Smart in their back pocket (which I highly doubt) I'd do that in a heartbeat. However, it would be much, much better for the school if he succeeds in turning this thing and then leaves on a high note. Like you, I have lost my confidence that he has the mental flexibility to do that.
 

jovs said:
Good offensive coach, not great defensively but good enough, his biggest issue would be recruiting.
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I actually think he would do well recruiting. Flip's a pretty "cool dude" and think that kids would like him. Plus the fact he was a NBA coach, I believe that would add to his credibility with them.

But back to the main point. Unfortunately, we have a coach and it would cost a bunch to get rid of him. I don't know the answer, but this team has been a disappointment on a few levels. Mainly, we really needed this to be a good to very good year if we were going to sign some of these 2014 kids. Right or wrong, there is a lot of negativity surrounding this team from the fans and media right now. That can't help the recruiting of these local kids who probably are hearing most of it.
 




ski-u-mah said:
I actually think he would do well recruiting. Flip's a pretty "cool dude" and think that kids would like him. Plus the fact he was a NBA coach, I believe that would add to his credibility with them.

But back to the main point. Unfortunately, we have a coach and it would cost a bunch to get rid of him. I don't know the answer, but this team has been a disappointment on a few levels. Mainly, we really needed this to be a good to very good year if we were going to sign some of these 2014 kids. Right or wrong, there is a lot of negativity surrounding this team from the fans and media right now. That can't help the recruiting of these local kids who probably are hearing most of it.
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The interesting parts about Flip:

1. NBA coach credentials has appeal in recruiting
2. He so loves the program that I think he might donate a lot of his salary or at least take the job for far less to help defray the Tubby costs
3. He already has been following our key local recruits- going to games...
4. No annual threat of him going elsewhere
5. Knows offensive ball
6. There would be a ton of excitement over the hire.
7. Except with the bad apples, he seems to be a players coach.

Would it work? Who knows- but nothing else has lately.
 

Moses87 said:
First off, the Indianapolis metro area is split among 3 teams
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Yeah, if you call 80% IU 15% PU 5% BU a "split", then yes, you're correct.

Moses87 said:
If the kids in the Twin Cities metro area aren't growing up Gopher fans, who are they gravitating towards?
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The same as any other metro whose local team hasn't given them a reason to be fans - Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, Syracuse, etc. There are probably damn near as many Becky fans as Gopher fans in the local high schools right now, and certainly more combined Becky/Hogeye fans than Gopher fans.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Yeah, if you call 80% IU 15% PU 5% BU a "split", then yes, you're correct.



The same as any other metro whose local team hasn't given them a reason to be fans - Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, Syracuse, etc. There are probably damn near as many Becky fans as Gopher fans in the local high schools right now, and certainly more combined Becky/Hogeye fans than Gopher fans.
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Where do you come up with your percentiles for Indy? I have no data but from observing other fan sites in Big Ten, I would have thought it was more like a 40/40/20 split right now. Butler's fan base is growing by leaps and bounds and it should be. Great coach, great arena, 2 Final Fours, beat IU. I seriously doubt only 5% of Indianapolis kids would say Butler. That number, whatever it is now, will surely grow in the coming years with Stephens at the helm.
 



Because of the local talent pool soon to be committing to their college of choice, I believe this is a very important time to the Gopher's future. Yet, if I was an adviser to any of the local recruits, I would not recommend that they sign with a Tubby Smith coached team.

For me, there are several "Wins" available on the coach hiring front. Shaka Smart is certainly one of them. AND, yes, I believe that Flip Saunders is another (if I was a top PG (Tyus Jones?), I would love to be coached by Flip).
 

bga1 said:
The interesting parts about Flip:

1. NBA coach credentials has appeal in recruiting
2. He so loves the program that I think he might donate a lot of his salary or at least take the job for far less to help defray the Tubby costs
3. He already has been following our key local recruits- going to games...
4. No annual threat of him going elsewhere
5. Knows offensive ball
6. There would be a ton of excitement over the hire.
7. Except with the bad apples, he seems to be a players coach.

Would it work? Who knows- but nothing else has lately.
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I know some think the very idea of Flip coming here is utterly ridiculous, but I'd take him in a second. Not my first choice...but he would be a major improvement imo. The chances are very small of course, so this is mostly day dreaming material.
 

tikited said:
I know some think the very idea of Flip coming here is utterly ridiculous, but I'd take him in a second. Not my first choice...but he would be a major improvement imo. The chances are very small of course, so this is mostly day dreaming material.
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Flip loves his school and is very loyal to it, and that would be the biggest factor in play. The thing about him is that I think he's fairly ageless in terms of his rapport with young people. He can connect with them in recruiting as well as in basketball.

To amend my post above, there is one scenario whereas Tubby's status comes to a head this off season, and that would be if he unexpectedly decides to retire. Don't think that's a possibility? Ask the pope.
 

I want Ohio State's assistant coach Jeff Boals. He's a hell of a recruiter and seems to want a coaching job in the Big Ten. Thad Matta also speaks highly of Boals in game coaching abilities.
 

Believe it or not, there is a very large core die hard group of gopher basketball fans. There were years back when the Gophs filled up target center for NIT games. The fans are out there, but the program under achieves too much. I'm a die hard that hasn't missed a game in the last 20 years.
 

TheBarnyard said:
Believe it or not, there is a very large core die hard group of gopher basketball fans. There were years back when the Gophs filled up target center for NIT games. The fans are out there, but the program under achieves too much. I'm a die hard that hasn't missed a game in the last 20 years.
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There are fans, no doubt, IMO the issue is few of those fans have raised elite basketball playing fans. It's great to fill the stadium, but if kids like Tyus and Rashad aren't growing up die hard Gopher fans it doesn't give us as much of an advantage. Where as an elite Indiana player dreams of playing for IU or Michigan players dream of playing for MSU or UM.

That's the biggest thing culturally that needs to change.
 

scher215 said:
There are fans, no doubt, IMO the issue is few of those fans have raised elite basketball playing fans. It's great to fill the stadium, but if kids like Tyus and Rashad aren't growing up die hard Gopher fans it doesn't give us as much of an advantage. Where as an elite Indiana player dreams of playing for IU or Michigan players dream of playing for MSU or UM.

That's the biggest thing culturally that needs to change.
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I think the issue of kids not rooting for the hometown team is widespread and not confined to kids in the Twin Cities metro area. With 10 to 15 games on cable TV per night from around the nation, the hometown advantage is definitely minimized. But its still there! There's still a huge number of locals who are going to be fans and that will impact recruiting. A young, successful head coach with buzz will enhance that advantage. An aging coach who throws his players under the bus, whose players repeat the same mistakes and see their NBA draft stocks fade, has no chance to keep the best kids home.
 

TheBarnyard said:
I want Ohio State's assistant coach Jeff Boals. He's a hell of a recruiter and seems to want a coaching job in the Big Ten. Thad Matta also speaks highly of Boals in game coaching abilities.
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I'm always a little leery of guys who have never been a head coach before. But sometimes you have to take chances too.
 

get-smart.jpg
 

tikited said:
I know some think the very idea of Flip coming here is utterly ridiculous, but I'd take him in a second. Not my first choice...but he would be a major improvement imo. The chances are very small of course, so this is mostly day dreaming material.
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He would come here in less time than it will take you to finish reading this sentence.

It's probably a moot point because we are $2.5M shy of making that happen. Secondly, I'm not sure it works anyway. He's in his late 50's and hasn't recruited since he was a community college coach. As much as he's "one of us" he's in the retread category in NBA coaching circles. It might be an interesting experiment and maybe Tyus Jones would buy the "I can make you an NBA ready point guard" sales job. But it would be difficult to see it happening unless Flip said he would do it for a buck the first year.
 

As to my Flip comments, I'll respond to them all here.

As far as Flip magically getting 50 wins. . .that's KG.

People can blame McHale and everyone else all that they want, but why has he continued to not be successful as a coach?

In Detroit, he had a veteran championship caliber team that was worse after his 3 years than it was before. Detroit did not live up to expectations with Flip.

In Washington, he was again, fired after less than 3 years. You can blame whoever you want, but Flip was a failure in Washington.


As far as the long 2, I think almost every basketball stat nerd will tell you that it's the worst shot in college basketball. The game is about threes and getting to the rim (and foul line).
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
As to my Flip comments, I'll respond to them all here.

As far as Flip magically getting 50 wins. . .that's KG.

People can blame McHale and everyone else all that they want, but why has he continued to not be successful as a coach?

In Detroit, he had a veteran championship caliber team that was worse after his 3 years than it was before. Detroit did not live up to expectations with Flip.

In Washington, he was again, fired after less than 3 years. You can blame whoever you want, but Flip was a failure in Washington.


As far as the long 2, I think almost every basketball stat nerd will tell you that it's the worst shot in college basketball. The game is about threes and getting to the rim (and foul line).
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Your Washington take makes zero sense, have you looked at the roster and circumstances? When he has talent he wins.
 


EG#9 said:
No way a .500 season (or even 10-8) should be acceptable in year 6. To use the quoted .500, that would make SIX seasons without a winning Big Ten record...come on have some sort of standards. IF this was a team that was bringing back everybody, then such a season MIGHT be worthy of one more chance to get the program on track, but it's not. Barring some superstar recruit picking Minnesota in the Spring, the Gophers will be picked no better than 8th (and more likely 9-10) in the B1G for the 2013-2014 season in what would be YEAR SEVEN of the Tubby Era.

Remember Dan Monson finishing 10-8 and in a tie for 4th place (7 seed NCAA tournament) in his sixth season? With players like Jeff Hagen, Bren Lawson, and Aaron Robinson surrounding JUCO Vincent Grier? Monson was dead man walking before that season and got to put two more crappy teams on the floor (the next year was the famous "I am not going to go there" Maturi NIT non-firing/firing bit) before finally being served his walking papers. I really, really don't want to have a long and painful execution again...
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The Gophers are going dancing this year, next year, and the year after.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Why would he want to leave a better job (and his alma mater) for a worse job?
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Is that what this program is? Worse than ISU? Just asking, but I know if I had the choice between living in Minneapolis or Ames and have closer access to good talent, I would choose this job.
 

Bad Gopher said:
I expect the Gophers to rally yet this season after getting a second wind. They won't achieve what we had been hoping for at one time, but they will make the Tournament and hopefully win one game. The bottom line is that Tubby will get enough out of this team to save his job and do patchwork repairs on his reputation. I believe that the real trouble will begin next year, when the team will be without its dynamic senior forwards. Trevor will be virtually irreplaceable - as much for his work ethic as his physical capabilities - and even the continued development of Hollins, Hollins and Coleman won't nearly make up for it. Unless Buggs and/or Ellenson surprise us by being major contributors, we're going to be a bird or two short of being able to destroy the pigs' fortresses. There's no telling how many of the big three we end up recruiting, but one way or another it will be a major factor in the U's decision making. The combination of how many wins Tubby can squeeze out of next season and how many of the big three recruits he gets will seal his fate - but the watershed will occur next year and not this season or off season.
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Phrases such as the bolded one above illustrate why this forum needs a reputation system :clap:
 

nokomismod said:
Is that what this program is? Worse than ISU? Just asking, but I know if I had the choice between living in Minneapolis or Ames and have closer access to good talent, I would choose this job.
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Again, proximity to talent means nothing if you can't actually secure the talent. Further, one entire border of Minnesota is taken up by the Dakotas, which produce almost no high-major players. Iowa borders Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and most importantly, Illinois. I would agree with the proposition that Minnesota has the potential to be a better job than ISU, but it currently is not, and has not been based on history.
 

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