My guess is this is what Pitino will use to show he needs more time. He will say he is really close to competing for the Big Ten championship and making a run in the NCAA tournament - he is just a player or two away and he has some good players coming in next year's class.
Other factors weighing in though are his poor won-loss record especially in the Big Ten, continued last-minute meltdowns, and declining attendance. As you stated, a lack of depth in year 7 is a major factor. So I think it comes down to where you see the program right now and where it will be in 3 more years. If Oturu leaves, it sure looks like more of the same and a program that is just spinning its wheels. That is why I continue to say this would be a good time to fire Pitino and move on, especially if Coyle has someone good ready to step in.
I think the key phrase is "if Coyle has someone really good ready to step in." I think the strongest argument in support of making a change, is declining attendance. In evaluating Pitino's performance, I don't believe that simply looking at his 7-year data tells the whole story. He clearly was not ready to take on a power 5 program after just one year as a head coach, and he ended up giving scholarships out to a number of players who weren’t ever going to be successful in the Big Ten. To his credit, and detriment, he stuck with those recruits, which has adversely affected his, and the teams, overall performance.
The question at this point is whether a change is the best way to build a long-term successful program. At this point, we have invested a lot in Pitino’s development. And whether that investment is worth saving requires focusing on what he has done beginning 3 or 4 years out when he began to mature as a coach and recruiter. Affecting that analysis is the season a couple of years ago that started out with great promise and disintegrated due to a sex scandal and injuries. My belief, which can be debated, is that had that not occurred, we might not be having this discussion today.
This season has been gut-wrenching. And the failure to close out close games – repeatedly – raises serious questions about the quality of the coaching. Yet it brings to my mind the 1959 football season under Murray Warmath in which we went 2-7. My recollection is that we had a lead in all but two of those losses until the last couple of minutes of the game. (I was there for all of the home games.) Someone in the state legislature introduced a bill limiting the time for college games played in the state by 2 minutes. Well, the bill didn’t become law, and it was unnecessary, as the next year we were named National Champions. We literally went from last to first.
I’m not expecting that to happen with our basketball team, but I am expecting a much more successful season next year as long as Oturu returns, and perhaps, even if he doesn’t. I’ve been impressed with Isaiah Ihnen’s recent play, and Tre Williams is developing. I’m excited to see what Jamal Mashburn and Martice Mitchell will add next year. And if we have enough depth to give some of our key players more rest, it should help us close out games. It might also help Gabe Kalscheur to regain his shooting touch. I suspect that fatigue is a factor in his poor percentage this year.
Like most on this board, I’ve been frustrated by watching a parade of Minnesota’s best talent commit to other schools. But I think Pitino’s recruiting has improved significantly, and I’m more than happy to win with out-of-state players. In time, I expect that more locals will follow the lead of Oturu, Kalscheur, Omersa, and stay home as the program’s success on the floor improves. At that time, the local talent pool will likely become a strong program asset.
If we do make a change, and I trust Coyle to make the right decision, I hope it will be someone who can keep this team together and build on the talent we have.
