Hypothetical question...

[tikited]

It is far from a cop out. I have taken a ton of criticism for defending Pitino and saying wait until the season is over. That is where I have stood and where I stand. I think that firing him at the end of the year is a lot more viable today than 3 weeks ago based on what has happened and fan disappointment in the results.

There is a ton that we don't know that Coyle does know:
- Who are the viable alternatives?
- How does he think Pitino is doing on recruiting spring guys?
- Is he confident that we will have a roster that is overall as good or better next year that he thinks Pitino could win with? Or not?
- How good is Coyle's relationship with Pitino?
- What insight does Coyle have on our local recruiting misses?
- Does he view Pitino to be progressing?
- What does he think of the current staff?
- What do the players say about Pitino? Do they respect him, think he is helping them grow?
- Based on all of these things is Coyle confident enough in Pitino that he is willing to weather the storm?

I have said for a while that I am fine with firing him at the end of the year and fine with keeping him based on Coyle's judgement of these things.

I didn't say anything about money there, because I think that the money will work itself out except for in the case of extreme buyouts. Like Musselman for example, being at 5 million would have been better last year or next year. Who knows, though, some booster might cover that.

Has there been anyone saying they want him fired right now? I only seem to remember wanting him gone at the end of the season (which is what I want).

 

[CPTMidnight]

Regardless of sweeping the Badgers or not I have come to the belief Pitino will get another year.

I think Coyle is on the edge and could go either way. A lot will depend on the potential coaches available vs the potential for having a solid team next year. Kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation unless he has a solid candidate in his back pocket. Just picking an up and coming (but relativly unknown) coach or relying on the off chance Pitino pulls it together for a solid run at the title next year are both longshots and historically speaking - should fail.

The safest course for Coyle is is to make a move if he has the inside line on the next John Wooden and he is sure on it. Even then there are 13 other member institutions in the Big Ten that compete for coaches, players, and none will hand you a game for free.

Not an easy decision...

 

[bga1]

Has there been anyone saying they want him fired right now? I only seem to remember wanting him gone at the end of the season (which is what I want).

Oh sure there have been. But whether it is that or irritating trolls like USAF or Scools who post nothing unless the Gophers lose and they can talk about firing Pitino, I think it has the same effect.

 

[cjbfbp]

I think we are about to see if the MN job is really sought after, or if continues the trend of being a job that has to go below the top 3-4 candidates.

Well, that is food for thought. My feeling is that any Big Ten job, other than Northwestern, is a pretty good job. You have great facilities here, this is the only D1 program in the state, and, as a Big Ten team, any player coming here has excellent TV exposure. Personally, I think this is a better place for a coach looking for a career promotion than a program like Indiana where the fans are still somewhat attached to the glories of the past. The next coach will have the advantage of following Pitino so that's not a huge hurdle to surpass.

 

[cjbfbp]

The safest course for Coyle is is to make a move if he has the inside line on the next John Wooden and he is sure on it. Even then there are 13 other member institutions in the Big Ten that compete for coaches, players, and none will hand you a game for free.

Not an easy decision...

How can he be sure of that? Who is the next John Wooden? The only person who has come close since John Wooden is Coach K. Why would a coach following Pitino be expected to perform near that level? After Pitino, fans should be pretty satisfied if a coach could perform at the Fran McCaffrey level.

It's not a hard decision. Just follow the Mae West philosophy: "When given the choice between two evils, I always pick the one I haven't tried before." A new coach will at least generate some fan enthusiasm. Sticking with Pitino will just bring disillusionment.

 

[scools12]

Oh sure there have been. But whether it is that or irritating trolls like USAF or Scools who post nothing unless the Gophers lose and they can talk about firing Pitino, I think it has the same effect.

Why wont you answer the question you have been asked? What would it take for you to want Pitino fired? When would enough be enough for you?

 

[CPTMidnight]

How can he be sure of that? Who is the next John Wooden? The only person who has come close since John Wooden is Coach K. Why would a coach following Pitino be expected to perform near that level? After Pitino, fans should be pretty satisfied if a coach could perform at the Fran McCaffrey level.

It's not a hard decision. Just follow the Mae West philosophy: "When given the choice between two evils, I always pick the one I haven't tried before." A new coach will at least generate some fan enthusiasm. Sticking with Pitino will just bring disillusionment.

I tend to agree and think the time has come. Pitino is a 6 or 7th out of 14 type coach on average so far. I would expect next year would be about the same. I am hopeful there are some coaches that have the potential to complete in the top 5 every year and can wait a year if he does not feel like he has one. but I have high standards...

 

[cjbfbp]

I tend to agree and think the time has come. Pitino is a 6 or 7th out of 14 type coach on average so far. I would expect next year would be about the same. I am hopeful there are some coaches that have the potential to complete in the top 5 every year and can wait a year if he does not feel like he has one. but I have high standards...

6 or 7th out of 14 might be a bit complimentary. My standards possibly are a little lower than yours. I don't mind a coach having a bad year every four years or so but 4 bad or mediocre years out of 7 are a bit too many even for my possibly lower standards.

 

[benlaur]

The prior two coaches had some success after they left here too. Monson had some good years at Long Beach and Tubby did well at TT and was ok at Memphis, just ran into perception issue. I'm willing to bet Richard would do well once he leaves here with the knowledge he's gained. It's been a coach killer for a long time. That doesn't mean it can't be turned around, but we will need to find out lightening in a bottle.

? Dan Monson has had a worse record since he left here in an easier conference on a team with no sanctions, .493 win % at Long Beach vs .527 here. Yes, really killer.

Tubby Smith had a .605 winning % here. His post MN winning % has been lower. .479 at Texas Tech, .606 at Memphis, .403 High Point. Again, not a coach killer. Tubby was also fired from Memphis after leaving Mn. What is the basis for calling it a coach killer?

You provided the names of 2 coaches who did worse after leaving here. One who was here, was hired after massive sanctions, the other was hired under the pretense of a practice facility. I am not following.

 

[benlaur]

? Dan Monson has had a worse record since he left here in an easier conference on a team with no sanctions, .493 win % at Long Beach vs .527 here. Yes, really killer.

Tubby Smith had a .605 winning % here. His post MN winning % has been lower. .479 at Texas Tech, .606 at Memphis, .403 High Point. Again, not a coach killer. Tubby was also fired from Memphis after leaving Mn. What is the basis for calling it a coach killer?

You provided the names of 2 coaches who did worse after leaving here. One who was here, was hired after massive sanctions, the other was hired under the pretense of a practice facility. I am not following.

(CONTINUED) The numbers would indicate that the last 2 coaches have done worse after leaving here, yet your argument presents the opposite.

 

[CPTMidnight]

6 or 7th out of 14 might be a bit complimentary. My standards possibly are a little lower than yours. I don't mind a coach having a bad year every four years or so but 4 bad or mediocre years out of 7 are a bit too many even for my possibly lower standards.

Yes, meant to to say 8/9 place out of 14 (on average). Thanks for correction as I was thinking 6/7 from bottom. His finishes, 11th (this year), 7th 2019, 11th 2018, 4th 2017, 13th 2016, 10th 2015, 7th 2014. YMMV

Average you say? No I say below average
Worst coach ever? No, above that
Will next year bring his average up? yes, probably, but don't bet the farm on it.
If I could trade him being an 8/9 coach for a 6/7 coach would I do it? eh maybe. Who are you talking about?
Would you trade him for another 8/9 coach just to mix it up a little? Naw...
Would you trade him for a 1-5 coach, yes absolutely.

 

[Goldteam]

We have a player who could be big 10 player of the year, and are in 12th place.

Does that make any sense!

 

[Gopherfan84]

? Dan Monson has had a worse record since he left here in an easier conference on a team with no sanctions, .493 win % at Long Beach vs .527 here. Yes, really killer.

Tubby Smith had a .605 winning % here. His post MN winning % has been lower. .479 at Texas Tech, .606 at Memphis, .403 High Point. Again, not a coach killer. Tubby was also fired from Memphis after leaving Mn. What is the basis for calling it a coach killer?

You provided the names of 2 coaches who did worse after leaving here. One who was here, was hired after massive sanctions, the other was hired under the pretense of a practice facility. I am not following.

I said had some success. It hasn't been long lived which I feel has justified their firings. I look at conference records when I make my arguments. Monson won the conference three times in a row and finished lower than 5th once (his first year) at LBSU. TT was a dumpster fire and Tubby built it and took what was at the time a promotion at Memphis.
I believe someone can make the gophers a consistent NCAA team, but this job is harder than most give I think credit for.

 

[bc2211]

Two years from now?
Carr
Mashburn
Gabe/Williams
Ihnen
Freeman/Mitchell

That's not a bad start. Unlike some others here, I like Freeman. Tough kid, who will hit the boards. He will have a solid career.

I recall at the start of the year, a lot of people here, most of them the Pitino haters, thought this was a dumpster roster that would have a tough time winning 5-6 games. The graduation of Murphy and the late loss of Coffey and Curry was going to kill us on the boards and we would be soft and weak. Gabe was the only known commodity. Instead we have competed well on the boards, Oturu has been better than expected as has Carr while Kalscheur has had a really, really tough year. We have been in nearly every game to the end. You just never know.

I was on record that this was Pitino’s best roster. The roster you just mentioned has an Oturu sized hole at center - and Pitino’s rosters have been crippled by way-below average play in at least one position for years. PF exploited this year. Center in years past. If Pitino can’t get it done with this roster; the one above gives me no confidence.

 

[bga1]

I was on record that this was Pitino’s best roster. The roster you just mentioned has an Oturu sized hole at center - and Pitino’s rosters have been crippled by way-below average play in at least one position for years. PF exploited this year. Center in years past. If Pitino can’t get it done with this roster; the one above gives me no confidence.

A year ago, Oturu was nothing like he is this year. You could tell he had potential. So how do we know that this group- 2 years hence- can't develop?

This year was not our best roster. The Mason, Coffey, Murphy, McBrayer, Lynch roster was his best and offered depth. McBrayer, fully healthy was pretty good that year so I don't recall a weak spot on that one while it was intact. This one might have matched that had Gabe and Willis been shooting up to par and if Curry would have been available. Or if Coffey would have stayed....

 

[CPTMidnight]

Hypotheticals are pretty meaningless...

Ok how about this for a hypothetical: You sweep WI every year but never finish above 6th place in the BigTen and certainly never win a title OR the Gophers get swept every year by Wisconsin and finish top 5 every year in the BigTen with a title every so often.

 

[cjbfbp]

We have a player who could be big 10 player of the year, and are in 12th place.

Does that make any sense!

Well, that's happened before, more or less. Kris Humphries led the conference in scoring and rebounding as a freshman and was a first rounder.

 

[cjbfbp]

Yes, meant to to say 8/9 place out of 14 (on average). Thanks for correction as I was thinking 6/7 from bottom. His finishes, 11th (this year), 7th 2019, 11th 2018, 4th 2017, 13th 2016, 10th 2015, 7th 2014. YMMV

Average you say? No I say below average
Worst coach ever? No, above that
Will next year bring his average up? yes, probably, but don't bet the farm on it.
If I could trade him being an 8/9 coach for a 6/7 coach would I do it? eh maybe. Who are you talking about?
Would you trade him for another 8/9 coach just to mix it up a little? Naw...
Would you trade him for a 1-5 coach, yes absolutely.

Good questions!

Agreed

You're right. My association with the program is shorter than many here but I went back and looked at the records. John Kundla was worse.

Well, if Oturu stayed, yes I think. Otherwise probably not and I would still have little confidence in the year after (Marcus Carr could grad transfer).

I definitely would

I probably would. That Mae West philosophy again. At least I'd have hope for awhile.

Same here of course

 

[Big Ten Championship]

I vote for him to stay. Gabe, has single handedly killed this team.

Pitino still says nothing but positive comments about Gabe. I love listening to him talk. He is clever and doesn’t lose his cool even after tough losses.

He is young and still learning to coach. No other coach in the past has done significantly better. If Garza picks the Gophers he is a lock to coach here next year.
If Oturo decides to come back, he will get one more year.
Two good recruits coming in next year and another the following year.
Chet Holmgren committing here would bring him back as well.
Go Gophers.

 

[builtbadgers]

I think Coyle is on the edge and could go either way. A lot will depend on the potential coaches available vs the potential for having a solid team next year. Kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation unless he has a solid candidate in his back pocket. Just picking an up and coming (but relativly unknown) coach or relying on the off chance Pitino pulls it together for a solid run at the title next year are both longshots and historically speaking - should fail.

The safest course for Coyle is is to make a move if he has the inside line on the next John Wooden and he is sure on it. Even then there are 13 other member institutions in the Big Ten that compete for coaches, players, and none will hand you a game for free.

Not an easy decision...

He does not need to be the next John Wooden, the level of Bo Ryan would be thousands of times better than what we have had.

 

[builtbadgers]

From the outside, it appears as if you think Pitino is a good coach despite the results. Like we aren't seeing something you're seeing and the results will finally come together. It's certainly plausible, it's happened to a lot of coaches.

However, what would it take to get you to think he should be fired?

What if we finish 11th or worse next year in conference?

My guess is that you're going to argue that we shouldn't expect anything next year, so we'll give him another pass.

So lets go to 2021-2022: Is that a year he HAS to make the tournament to save his job?

Which coaches became great after 7 years of not winning the conference or getting to the final 4 because nearly every one that did became great did it early.

 

[bhk3yx]

I think the key phrase is "if Coyle has someone really good ready to step in." I think the strongest argument in support of making a change, is declining attendance. In evaluating Pitino's performance, I don't believe that simply looking at his 7-year data tells the whole story. He clearly was not ready to take on a power 5 program after just one year as a head coach, and he ended up giving scholarships out to a number of players who weren’t ever going to be successful in the Big Ten. To his credit, and detriment, he stuck with those recruits, which has adversely affected his, and the teams, overall performance.

The question at this point is whether a change is the best way to build a long-term successful program. At this point, we have invested a lot in Pitino’s development. And whether that investment is worth saving requires focusing on what he has done beginning 3 or 4 years out when he began to mature as a coach and recruiter. Affecting that analysis is the season a couple of years ago that started out with great promise and disintegrated due to a sex scandal and injuries. My belief, which can be debated, is that had that not occurred, we might not be having this discussion today.

This season has been gut-wrenching. And the failure to close out close games – repeatedly – raises serious questions about the quality of the coaching. Yet it brings to my mind the 1959 football season under Murray Warmath in which we went 2-7. My recollection is that we had a lead in all but two of those losses until the last couple of minutes of the game. (I was there for all of the home games.) Someone in the state legislature introduced a bill limiting the time for college games played in the state by 2 minutes. Well, the bill didn’t become law, and it was unnecessary, as the next year we were named National Champions. We literally went from last to first.

I’m not expecting that to happen with our basketball team, but I am expecting a much more successful season next year as long as Oturu returns, and perhaps, even if he doesn’t. I’ve been impressed with Isaiah Ihnen’s recent play, and Tre Williams is developing. I’m excited to see what Jamal Mashburn and Martice Mitchell will add next year. And if we have enough depth to give some of our key players more rest, it should help us close out games. It might also help Gabe Kalscheur to regain his shooting touch. I suspect that fatigue is a factor in his poor percentage this year.

Like most on this board, I’ve been frustrated by watching a parade of Minnesota’s best talent commit to other schools. But I think Pitino’s recruiting has improved significantly, and I’m more than happy to win with out-of-state players. In time, I expect that more locals will follow the lead of Oturu, Kalscheur, Omersa, and stay home as the program’s success on the floor improves. At that time, the local talent pool will likely become a strong program asset.

If we do make a change, and I trust Coyle to make the right decision, I hope it will be someone who can keep this team together and build on the talent we have.

Easily the best analysis I’ve read on the topic to date. Hits on all the factors I consider dispositive.

 

[Some guy]

We have a player who could be big 10 player of the year, and are in 12th place.

Does that make any sense!

No we don’t

 

[Some guy]

Which coaches became great after 7 years of not winning the conference or getting to the final 4 because nearly every one that did became great did it early.

This is true but we have no idea if the reason is because they couldn’t be great. How many coaches could’ve been great if given more time is unknowable.

 

[builtbadgers]

I tend to agree and think the time has come. Pitino is a 6 or 7th out of 14 type coach on average so far. I would expect next year would be about the same. I am hopeful there are some coaches that have the potential to complete in the top 5 every year and can wait a year if he does not feel like he has one. but I have high standards...

Thought he averages 9th or 10th over the 7 years.

 

[builtbadgers]

Hypotheticals are pretty meaningless...

Ok how about this for a hypothetical: You sweep WI every year but never finish above 6th place in the BigTen and certainly never win a title OR the Gophers get swept every year by Wisconsin and finish top 5 every year in the BigTen with a title every so often.

What about facts, never finishing ahead of UW in 7 tears and most not even close.

 

[builtbadgers]

This is true but we have no idea if the reason is because they couldn’t be great. How many coaches could’ve been great if given more time is unknowable.

Except for all the guys who were given longer and never been great.

 

[bhk3yx]

So when would it be enough for you to WANT him to be fired? Not be OK with the decision, when would you be like "yes, we need to move on"?

11th or worse the next two years?
No NCAA for the next two years/three years?

At one point would you move from, understanding the decision to leading the charge?

This question makes no sense to answer in a vacuum. Making hiring decisions based solely on W-L récord or statistics would be selling ourselves short. Just because we don’t like an outcome such as a bad loss doesn’t mean the only solution is to fire our coach and it also doesn’t mean the only factor responsible for the loss is our coach. The coach has a role yes but so do the players and rest of the staff on the team. The question isn’t how much anger we can each endure before deciding that “now” is the right time to fire the coach.
Without presenting options of viable alternative candidates or presenting numbers such as what % of coaches that lateral to other head positions to fill vacancies at power 5 schools each year make the NCAA tourney their 1st yr, 2nd, 3rd etc.. How many are fired within the same season they are hired to replace the previously terminated coach. It’s really easy to criticize a position (potentially keeping Pitino), without defending an alternative course of action because any disadvantages to the “new hire” don’t apply of course. The amorphous new hire can shift into anything it wants when the situation is convenient.

 

[builtbadgers]

This question makes no sense to answer in a vacuum. Making hiring decisions based solely on W-L récord or statistics would be selling ourselves short. Just because we don’t like an outcome such as a bad loss doesn’t mean the only solution is to fire our coach and it also doesn’t mean the only factor responsible for the loss is our coach. The coach has a role yes but so do the players and rest of the staff on the team. The question isn’t how much anger we can each endure before deciding that “now” is the right time to fire the coach.
Without presenting options of viable alternative candidates or presenting numbers such as what % of coaches that lateral to other head positions to fill vacancies at power 5 schools each year make the NCAA tourney their 1st yr, 2nd, 3rd etc.. How many are fired within the same season they are hired to replace the previously terminated coach. It’s really easy to criticize a position (potentially keeping Pitino), without defending an alternative course of action because any disadvantages to the “new hire” don’t apply of course. The amorphous new hire can shift into anything it wants when the situation is convenient.

It is not about making the NCAA the 1st or 2nd year for sure because it is about building a foundation for sustainability with your guys, high character guys, guys that fit your culture and your plan.

 

[LesBolstad]

This question makes no sense to answer in a vacuum. Making hiring decisions based solely on W-L récord or statistics would be selling ourselves short. Just because we don’t like an outcome such as a bad loss doesn’t mean the only solution is to fire our coach and it also doesn’t mean the only factor responsible for the loss is our coach. The coach has a role yes but so do the players and rest of the staff on the team. The question isn’t how much anger we can each endure before deciding that “now” is the right time to fire the coach.
Without presenting options of viable alternative candidates or presenting numbers such as what % of coaches that lateral to other head positions to fill vacancies at power 5 schools each year make the NCAA tourney their 1st yr, 2nd, 3rd etc.. How many are fired within the same season they are hired to replace the previously terminated coach. It’s really easy to criticize a position (potentially keeping Pitino), without defending an alternative course of action because any disadvantages to the “new hire” don’t apply of course. The amorphous new hire can shift into anything it wants when the situation is convenient.

WTF did I just read?

The bottom line is Lil' Ricky is gone and I say good riddance. He's an awful coach and below average recruiter. He gets out-recruited in his backyard by a 70 year old.