Neither. Both are data points. What you look at is where the program is right now and what you have in a coach right now and what the future prospects look like. There are a lot of factors at hand here. The age of the coach and his improvement in key areas is important here. This is also an academic institution and off court performance has hit an all time high. Coyle is going to compare where Pitino is at right now versus what he can get by starting over. He may well decide to start over, and at this point I am guessing that he does- but it isn't quite like you think. Coyle isn't stupid enough to be sitting in his office screaming 47-80 like some here do. Right now we are about a half dozen free throws from being an 8 seed and in the tournament for the third year out of four. He has not gotten it done but that's the truth of the matter.
The roster is still deficient of depth and that is indeed on Pitino. On the other hand one can consider how this year might have played out with Coffey and Curry. I'd guess we might be playing for a Big Ten championship. That's how thin the line is.
This is irrelevant. Maybe if we are talking about a coach who is 65+ years old it makes sense. But there is no difference between a coach being 34 years old or 57 years old. Both could still coach here for 10+ years.