How many wins needed to not be disappointed in the season?

POL!!! - How many wins to not be disappointed?

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WAGopher said:
At the beginning of the season, winning 8 regular season games was my minimum for a successful season. Now after all the injuries and offensive problems, I’ve lowered that to 7, which means we’ll still have a winning conference record of 5 and 4.
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Ditto here. I also set an 8 win minimum at the beginning of the season but lowered it to 7 regular season wins. If we won the bowl game and finished 8-5, I'd still be pretty satisfied; a bowl loss and a 7-6 finish would dampen the season.
 

It is a cop out answer but my level of disappointment in the season isn't determined by the win/loss record. Coming into the year my feeling was this team should be in contention for the West, that hasn't changed even with Iowa looking as good as they have to this point.

So for me, I will be disappointed in this season if when it is all said and done, we are not realistically in the mix for the West title.

It isn't one of the choices but I guess my answer to the number of wins needed to not be disappointed is whatever win total it takes to contend for the West. If we reach that total then the season was a success, if we fall short of that total then it wasn't.
 

We have 3 wins in the bank! And here is what lies ahead, not necessarily in order.

- Nebraska - underdogs at home. I see this as a pick em game
- NW- should be a win for 4 or 5.
- MD - this could go either way, but MD is beat up, i pick gophers. 5 or 6 wins
- Illinois - win - 6 or 7 wins
- Iowa - just don’t see it happening this year. No love in Iowa City.
- Indiana - another pick em game between teams expected to do more who may have righted the ship or quit. I’ll go Gophers. 7 or 8 wins.
- Wisconsin at home for the axe - I’d like to say this should be Gophers but my brain says be careful. Fifty-fifty game that could be ugly or beautiful. Between 7 and 9 wins.
 

Season kind of got flipped for me. Before the games started was thinking offense would score quite a lot of points and just need the defense to be above average. Now I’m hoping the defense can almost win games and the offense can somehow, someway be productive.
That being said, 8 I guess. 9 maybe, hopefully.
 

I'm not sure what will make the season feel successful to me. Who cares if we have 7 wins if they're all against low or middle of the pack teams? I expected more from our huge experienced OL. Losing Mo and Potts is a gut punch. Hopefully having CrAB and Wright back will open up the offense, but I have little confidence in Sanford. I think he's messed up Tanner and taken away his confidence. Apologies, but as a long-time Gopher fan, I've got the familiar "same old same old" feeling. I may have BG hangover, and I didn't get to watch or listen to the Co game - maybe I'd feel better if I had. Show us we can dominate on the field this Saturday and maybe I'll get some optimism. 2019 was a great season - but we didn't beat Wisconsin or Iowa so....
 


cjbfbp said:
Obviously, Wisconsin has had some difficulties this year on the offensive end but they shut out Illinois (holding them to 94 total yards) so they didn't need much offense in that game; still, they got 24 points and 491 yards with 391 of those being on the ground. Watching the game for a fair number of minutes I would say that Illinois' offense looked really bad (especially their QBs) but Wisconsin's defense also looked very, very good.

I'm less confident than I was a week or two ago that we will beat Wisconsin and I could see them holding the score way down against Iowa as well. In a low scoring game, anything can happen (like BGSU).
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Wisconsin has one of the best defenses in the country and a below average offense.

Minnesota will have a chance but it won’t be easy. I expect a game similar to last year
 

cjbfbp said:
Obviously, Wisconsin has had some difficulties this year on the offensive end but they shut out Illinois (holding them to 94 total yards) so they didn't need much offense in that game; still, they got 24 points and 491 yards with 391 of those being on the ground. Watching the game for a fair number of minutes I would say that Illinois' offense looked really bad (especially their QBs) but Wisconsin's defense also looked very, very good.

I'm less confident than I was a week or two ago that we will beat Wisconsin and I could see them holding the score way down against Iowa as well. In a low scoring game, anything can happen (like BGSU).
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Yep, including defensive turnovers for a short field or even directly for a TD.
 

Otis said:
We have 3 wins in the bank! And here is what lies ahead, not necessarily in order.

- Nebraska - underdogs at home. I see this as a pick em game
- NW- should be a win for 4 or 5.
- MD - this could go either way, but MD is beat up, i pick gophers. 5 or 6 wins
- Illinois - win - 6 or 7 wins
- Iowa - just don’t see it happening this year. No love in Iowa City.
- Indiana - another pick em game between teams expected to do more who may have righted the ship or quit. I’ll go Gophers. 7 or 8 wins.
- Wisconsin at home for the axe - I’d like to say this should be Gophers but my brain says be careful. Fifty-fifty game that could be ugly or beautiful. Between 7 and 9 wins.
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I think 9 is definitely doable. Then hopefully another good matchup in the bowl game against a reasonable name opponent, like Auburn.

Like SON said, the season is pretty much Nebraska and Wisconsin (assuming that Iowa in IC is too big a lift this year).
 

At this point, having lost Mo and Potts, as well as the air attack not at the 2019 level, my expectations have been reduced. The Bowling Green loss has contributed to that as well, especially considering how the Falcons aren't looking like a solid G5 team this year.

With that in mind, getting four more regular season wins, with at least one over a rival, plus a bowl victory would be a success. Not what I wanted at the start of the season, but the running game injuries and the defense continuing to be a work in progress makes me feel like I want to be hesitant in expecting anything above 8 wins.

I'd love to see a 2013 type season, where things were looking a little down after losing a pair of games to start the conference season and then bouncing back with four straight Big Ten victories to go 8-4. Unfortunately, I'm being more reminded of 2015.

First game is a hard fought one against a top five opponent (TCU in 2015, Ohio State in 2021), followed by inconsistent performances in the non-conference (10-7 win Vs. Kent State in 2015, 10-14 loss to BG in 2021), and one good game thrown in there (47-13 win @ Purdue in 2015, 30-0 win @ Colorado in 2021)

What makes me more comfortable with this season, though, is the strength of schedule. In 2015, we had:
  • A Michigan team that finished 10-3, ranked 11/12
  • An Ohio State team that finished 12-1, ranked 4
  • An Iowa team finishing 12-2, ranked 10/9
  • A Northwestern team finishing 10-3, ranked 22/23
  • A Wisconsin team finishing 10-3, ranked 21
This year we avoid Michigan, have a chance against Maryland since the Terps are often inconsistent, look good enough to take down Northwestern and should be able to get by Illinois again. Not sure how Indiana will go, last two games have come down to the wire.

With that in mind, it's going to come down to the rivalry games. Winning against Nebraska and Wisconsin, plus several of the other Big Ten games would certainly make this an alright year.
 



We could lose them all but Iowa and Wisconsin and I’d be happy.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
Unfortunately, I'm being more reminded of 2015.

First game is a hard fought one against a top five opponent (TCU in 2015, Ohio State in 2021), followed by inconsistent performances in the non-conference (10-7 win Vs. Kent State in 2015, 10-14 loss to BG in 2021), and one good game thrown in there (47-13 win @ Purdue in 2015, 30-0 win @ Colorado in 2021)

What makes me more comfortable with this season, though, is the strength of schedule. In 2015, we had:
  • A Michigan team that finished 10-3, ranked 11/12
  • An Ohio State team that finished 12-1, ranked 4
  • An Iowa team finishing 12-2, ranked 10/9
  • A Northwestern team finishing 10-3, ranked 22/23
  • A Wisconsin team finishing 10-3, ranked 21
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Exactly! I thought about that 2015 weak non-conference start as well earlier in this season. Minnesota had a very tough schedule in 2015. As you'll recall, we actually did seem to outplay Michigan (definitely out gained them in the game) and had a great chance to win but blew it on the goal line follies. Given the schedule that year we had to win that game against Michigan to have a chance at a winning season.

Currently, there are nine Big Ten teams who do not have a single vote in either national poll. Take us out of that group of nine and we have 6 games to go with the remaining 8 (we've already played Purdue and don't play Rutgers). This season we have plenty of chances remaining.
 

7 not including a bowl game is the absolute floor for me. Regardless of injuries.
 

Some guy said:
Already disappointed. I guess win out including big ten title game… but even then I’ll be like…why didn’t we have a game plan against bowling greeen
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There are some things you just can't Un-see in life. Bowling Green and worse to me was the PJ response two days later. Seems highly unlikely we could win out with Sanford and PJ collaborating. But, if we do, I'll forgive them Bowling Green...just skeptical it will/could happen

PJ screamed that we were going to be very good this year and I think we should be. The fact we have not been so far makes things a little cloudy.
 



I believe in PJ as a head coach, but do believe he realizes he needs great minds to assist him in creating a great football team. In 2019 I remember during they bye week they went to the drawing board and came out dominant. Not sure if they have the offensive minds to create a plan to right this ship, but I am hopeful. Bottom line I as a minimum need of 1 win against either IA or WI to feel content, plus an additional 3 other wins. So 8-4 with a win against a rival is an acceptable season. Still disappointed in the final outcome if this is what we get, but this would be my minimum right now.
 

cjbfbp said:
Exactly! I thought about that 2015 weak non-conference start as well earlier in this season. Minnesota had a very tough schedule in 2015. As you'll recall, we actually did seem to outplay Michigan (definitely out gained them in the game) and had a great chance to win but blew it on the goal line follies. Given the schedule that year we had to win that game against Michigan to have a chance at a winning season.

Currently, there are nine Big Ten teams who do not have a single vote in either national poll. Take us out of that group of nine and we have 6 games to go with the remaining 8 (we've already played Purdue and don't play Rutgers). This season we have plenty of chances remaining.
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I mean, 2015 they lost Kill during the middle of the season. That might've also had an effect.
 

I’ll tell y’all what…if we bring home the bacon and the axe…that’s it, those two wins, I’ll consider this seasons HUGE win!!!
 

I'll be disappointed if we don't win 6 regular season games. Winning 7 is a fair likelihood.
 

It would be nice if we win the next two and are in a position to have to maybe root for WI to beat Iowa to give us a better chance of winning the West.

Iowa's schedule is at their easy point now with WI, MN, and NE as their only tough games.
I don't see Purdue, NW, or Illinois getting anything done against Iowa.
 

Some guy said:
It’s not ridiculous if you thought this team could win 9-10 in June and they’re already guaranteed no more than 10 in week 6.

I probably just say that because I don’t believe 10 is a possibility. But if we are 10-2 with a big ten title game loss and go to the outback bowl instead of the rose because we lost to bowling green…it would be really disappointing
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I could be wrong, but if we go 10-2, the Rose Bowl would entirely come down to the B1G Championship game. The Bowling Green game wouldn't help or hurt our chances.

That said, if we win 10 games and beat WI and Iowa, I'll forget we ever even played Bowling Green.
 

Face The Facts said:
It would be nice if we win the next two and are in a position to have to maybe root for WI to beat Iowa to give us a better chance of winning the West.

Iowa's schedule is at their easy point now with WI, MN, and NE as their only tough games.
I don't see Purdue, NW, or Illinois getting anything done against Iowa.
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Purdue and NW have given them trouble in the past, you never know if teams stop giving up the ball so much vs Iowa.
 

Given the schedule that has only two, tOSU and IA as should be losses, anything less than nine wins in the regular season would make me worry about the direction of the program.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
I could be wrong, but if we go 10-2, the Rose Bowl would entirely come down to the B1G Championship game. The Bowling Green game wouldn't help or hurt our chances.

That said, if we win 10 games and beat WI and Iowa, I'll forget we ever even played Bowling Green.
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If we are 10-2 and lose the big ten title game…the bowling green game would absolutely put us behind the east runner up for the rose bowl or even 11-1 Iowa who we beat
 

Plato said:
Given the schedule that has only two, tOSU and IA as should be losses, anything less than nine wins in the regular season would make me worry about the direction of the program.
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In what world would winning 8 regular season games raise a concern about the direction of the program?

If Gopher fan can even conceivably complain about an 8 win season, then the program is heading in the right direction.
 
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fan of Ray Williams said:
Season kind of got flipped for me. Before the games started was thinking offense would score quite a lot of points and just need the defense to be above average. Now I’m hoping the defense can almost win games and the offense can somehow, someway be productive.
That being said, 8 I guess. 9 maybe, hopefully.
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This is where I'm at. Yes, Miami and then Bowling Green were mind-blowingly terrible. But those were self-inflicted....we didn't get out-talented. There is plenty of on-field talent, even if RB will require some adjustments and growth. PJ has won plenty of games as an underdog. They should be fine without Dunlap. But based on the season so far, we can probably expect more close games, so 8W (L@Iowa +1 more) seems like a realistic goal.
 

Sorry, went from sky-high going into the 4th quarter against OH-IO State to just happy to win enough to be in a bowl game now. Losing Mo...with a hurt CrAB...and now losing Potts too...has blown up what could have been a pretty good offense.

The D has improved and the Special Forces are performing, so I agree there is hope. But for me anyway Mo was the key to a BIG year. Have had to hit the reset button and hope to win enough to get the extra practices and game...even Detroit. Sad but true.

Hope they exceed my much lowered expectations.
 

Before the season I predicted the Gophers would be 9-3 but secretly hoped they would ambush Ohio State in week one and push the season ceiling to 10-2 or beyond. My biggest area of concern was the defense, which was bad last year. So my prediction and secret hopes hinged on the incoming transfers being good and Oliver returning an improved player after his injury.

Well, down goes Crab (and his situation looks like it will be touch and go all season), down goes Ibrahim, down goes Potts, out goes Dunlap, struggle goes Morgan, and fizzle goes the offense.

Ironic that after spending all offseason worrying about the defense, that they end up about as good as I hoped they could be while the offense has regressed. One usually can’t predict injuries (outside of Byron Buxton) but it seems clear now that I was too optimistic with my 9-3 prediction. I have dialed back my disappointment threshold to 9-4 with a bowl win, and I now predict I will be disappointed with something worse than that.
 


Yah-E said:
I’ll tell y’all what…if we bring home the bacon and the axe…that’s it, those two wins, I’ll consider this seasons HUGE win!!!
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I get fans who talk like this.

And the simple practicality of the situation is that if we did win those two games ... then very likely we also won a bunch more.


But obviously, Fleck can't go out and recruit based on just two wins, that happen to be meaningful for fans.
 

Face The Facts said:
It would be nice if we win the next two and are in a position to have to maybe root for WI to beat Iowa to give us a better chance of winning the West.

Iowa's schedule is at their easy point now with WI, MN, and NE as their only tough games.
I don't see Purdue, NW, or Illinois getting anything done against Iowa.
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Iowa is 2-7 against Wisconsin in the last 9, and have to go to Madison.

Minn is a huge rivalry game.

And the Big Ten forced Nebraska v Iowa to be a border rivalry, for marketing purposes. (even though it never has been, any more than Iowa v Missouri has been historically)


Those are not going to be three gimme games, by any means.
 
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