Has this recruiting cycle for Coach Fleck been successful thus far?

Gophergrandpa

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 17, 2018
Messages
1,804
Reaction score
1,958
Points
113
If you had some reasonable measure of "goodness in college" (however it makes sense to measure that) on the Y-axis, and the star rating on the X-axis, and then did a best fit of a line to the "cloud" of datapoints on that plot, you would see that the slope was positive.

IE the basic trend is that higher star rating correlates with higher "goodness in college".


But beyond that, it is tough to infer much.
You would also see that the cloud of data points was quite dispersed rather than tightly located along the trend line. Correlation, yes; predictability, 50/50; conclusiveness, other than at the most positive and negative outlier data points, no.

Remember that regression analysis—which is used to calculate the trend line—doesn’t purport to find the “right” answer; it uses mathematical analysis of data to find the “least wrong” answer assuming that all data inputs are correct—e.g. assuming that Antoine Winfield is correctly rated less than 0.83 and that is Mo Ibrahim is correctly rated less than 0.84, etc. Because there are so many instances of initial incorrect data entry (proved by later success or failure of a player), the cloud of data might be more tightly wound around the trend line if a service were to re-rate players in their third or fourth year of college eligibility (where Antoine and Mo would be counted as solid four stars in the 0.95 range).

Here’s how PJ has managed to improve recruiting markedly (judged by product on the field) without moving the aggregate preliminary numbers as greatly as those enthralled by preliminary numbers would like: he uses the eye test to find athletes that are underrated, under-analyzed or not being given full credit for their development potential … and players whose heart and drive are not reflected in numerical rankings. He doesn’t have to fight the helmet schools for these kids, and fewer of them turn out to be prima donnas. It is IMHO the best formula a coach can use in a non/helmet school setting.
 
Last edited:

Gophers_4life

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 27, 2018
Messages
8,287
Reaction score
872
Points
113
You would also see that the cloud of data points was quite dispersed rather than tightly located along the trend line. Correlation, yes; predictability, 50/50; conclusiveness, other than at the most positive and negative outlier data points, no.

Remember that regression analysis—which is used to calculate the trend line—doesn’t purport to find the “right” answer; it uses mathematical analysis of data to find the “least wrong” answer assuming that all data inputs are correct—e.g. assuming that Antoine Winfield is correctly rated less than 0.83 and that is Mo Ibrahim is correctly rated less than 0.84.

Here’s how PJ has managed to improve recruiting markedly (judged by product on the field) without moving the aggregate preliminary numbers as greatly as those enthralled by preliminary numbers would like: he uses the eye test to find athletes that are underrated, under-analyzed or not being given full credit for their development potential. He doesn’t have to fight the helmet schools for these kids, and fewer of them turn out to be prima donnas.
I very much agree with your first two paragraphs, both in objective correctness of statistics and in spirit.

The last paragraph could well be correct or mostly correct. I don't know if I agree that that is the recruiting philosophy they try to live by. And perhaps they try to split the class between going after obvious 3*, maybe indeed using "eye tests" like you describe, and then also having some "reach" targets that they know they will be fighting other P5 for.

I think only occasionally will a recruit be legitimately considering both us and a helmet school. And especially rare that such a recruit will not have grown up in the Twin Cities or have some other factor like that (for example, Anthony Brown's brother is on the team).
 

Gophergrandpa

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 17, 2018
Messages
1,804
Reaction score
1,958
Points
113
I very much agree with your first two paragraphs, both in objective correctness of statistics and in spirit.

The last paragraph could well be correct or mostly correct. I don't know if I agree that that is the recruiting philosophy they try to live by. And perhaps they try to split the class between going after obvious 3*, maybe indeed using "eye tests" like you describe, and then also having some "reach" targets that they know they will be fighting other P5 for.

I think only occasionally will a recruit be legitimately considering both us and a helmet school. And especially rare that such a recruit will not have grown up in the Twin Cities or have some other factor like that (for example, Anthony Brown's brother is on the team).
We are thinking the same. I also think that PJ is able to adapt his recruiting strategies to what is happening in the moment. I suspect that the broad class he is taking in from Minnesota for 2023 reflects a recognition that, in an NIL + free transfer world, it makes more sense to get “development” recruits who have strong reasons never to transfer from Minnesota, even if they blow up in terms of on-field success. Then use the transfer portal to bring in non-development players who can fill a gap, or add proven depth, immediately. Still take kids from out of state who have great potential and really want to be here, of course ( because there some real gems), but depend a little less on those kids as, under current conditions, they might prove to be short-timers because of transfer portal cheating and interference,
 

highwayman

Knows Less Than Coaching Staff
Joined
Jan 4, 2009
Messages
7,039
Reaction score
813
Points
113
Why do you guys keep engaging the biggest moron troll on this site? Pissing into the wind would be more productive.
 

Tommyboy

Active member
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Messages
530
Reaction score
102
Points
43
PJ is taking my advice and pulling in more local guys, now he has to work on using them and keeping them four years.
 


Dakota2

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 9, 2020
Messages
1,577
Reaction score
1,145
Points
113
We are thinking the same. I also think that PJ is able to adapt his recruiting strategies to what is happening in the moment. I suspect that the broad class he is taking in from Minnesota for 2023 reflects a recognition that, in an NIL + free transfer world, it makes more sense to get “development” recruits who have strong reasons never to transfer from Minnesota, even if they blow up in terms of on-field success. Then use the transfer portal to bring in non-development players who can fill a gap, or add proven depth, immediately. Still take kids from out of state who have great potential and really want to be here, of course ( because there some real gems), but depend a little less on those kids as, under current conditions, they might prove to be short-timers because of transfer portal cheating and interference,
Don't really think Fleck is worrying much about 3 star recruits blowing up and leaving in the portal. He believes he is building a team that will consistently compete for a conference title and send guys to the NFL. Why would they leave?

Ky and Bucky left because they didn't think they would play much this year after knowing Mo and Potts are both likely OK.

Once in a while you will get a head scratcher like M.J. Anderson who left despite of fact he would have started this year.
 

Gophers_4life

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 27, 2018
Messages
8,287
Reaction score
872
Points
113
Don't really think Fleck is worrying much about 3 star recruits blowing up and leaving in the portal. He believes he is building a team that will consistently compete for a conference title and send guys to the NFL. Why would they leave?

Ky and Bucky left because they didn't think they would play much this year after knowing Mo and Potts are both likely OK.

Once in a while you will get a head scratcher like M.J. Anderson who left despite of fact he would have started this year.
Dunlap? But who knows for sure.
 


Bob_Loblaw

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 23, 2009
Messages
16,246
Reaction score
7,308
Points
113
Don't really think Fleck is worrying much about 3 star recruits blowing up and leaving in the portal. He believes he is building a team that will consistently compete for a conference title and send guys to the NFL. Why would they leave?

Ky and Bucky left because they didn't think they would play much this year after knowing Mo and Potts are both likely OK.

Once in a while you will get a head scratcher like M.J. Anderson who left despite of fact he would have started this year.
Ky and Bucky both say otherwise. Ky said he was homesick and wanted to return home. Bucky made it pretty clear it was about $. I have a hard time believing he will get more carries for Oregon this year than he would have gotten here.

As for MJ Anderson, I have no way of knowing for sure, but I'm almost certain a non-football related thing happened. He was already playing a ton and it was in the middle of Badger week. That's bizarre timing. It also happened within days of Cheney leaving. I have no way of knowing and I shouldn't ever find out for sure, but I think all signs point to the fact that there was something outside of football.
 



PMWinSTP

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 11, 2015
Messages
11,889
Reaction score
2,264
Points
113
We are thinking the same. I also think that PJ is able to adapt his recruiting strategies to what is happening in the moment. I suspect that the broad class he is taking in from Minnesota for 2023 reflects a recognition that, in an NIL + free transfer world, it makes more sense to get “development” recruits who have strong reasons never to transfer from Minnesota, even if they blow up in terms of on-field success. Then use the transfer portal to bring in non-development players who can fill a gap, or add proven depth, immediately. Still take kids from out of state who have great potential and really want to be here, of course ( because there some real gems), but depend a little less on those kids as, under current conditions, they might prove to be short-timers because of transfer portal cheating and interference,

You are wrong. Let me tell you why.

When Fleck came in, next level meant:
1. Beating a top 20 team more frequently than once every 15 years or so.
2. Actually competing and winning games vs WI
3. A winning record against Power 5 teams
4. Actually having your team mentioned on the CFP TV show
5. Winning "meaningless" bowl games.

The level after that is winning titles and CFP appearance and the Rose Bowl.
You can't magically think you go from losing the majority of your power 5 games to making a Rose Bowl as one step. If it was, we would have done it more than once in the last 50 years.

You obviously forgot the annual beat down by Wisconsin and the 15? year streak of misery.
Wow. You must have seen a different introduction press conference than the rest of us.
 

Dakota2

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 9, 2020
Messages
1,577
Reaction score
1,145
Points
113
Ky and Bucky both say otherwise. Ky said he was homesick and wanted to return home. Bucky made it pretty clear it was about $. I have a hard time believing he will get more carries for Oregon this year than he would have gotten here.

As for MJ Anderson, I have no way of knowing for sure, but I'm almost certain a non-football related thing happened. He was already playing a ton and it was in the middle of Badger week. That's bizarre timing. It also happened within days of Cheney leaving. I have no way of knowing and I shouldn't ever find out for sure, but I think all signs point to the fact that there was something outside of football.
Ky may have said he was homesick but he felt pretty good last year leading the team in rushing. Money or not, Bucky believed he was going to get more carries transferring than here behind Mo and Potts.

As far as Bucky not showing up on three deeps there, and Ky showing at No. 2 at KU, I don't put much stock in that right now. Most coaches are not going to anoint a young transfer on the basis of spring practice. It's disrespectful to returning guys at the position.

They both have a chance to earn playing time in fall camp.
 

kg21

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 25, 2021
Messages
8,247
Reaction score
3,482
Points
113
All I know is the wide receiver recruiting has been crap yet again so far.

When you trot out a prehistoric passing game, it's sure hard to recruit them.
 

btowngopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 23, 2008
Messages
5,610
Reaction score
1,983
Points
113
All I know is the wide receiver recruiting has been crap yet again so far.

When you trot out a prehistoric passing game, it's sure hard to recruit them.
Yet again? What do you mean?
 



Jeremyp

Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2020
Messages
45
Reaction score
81
Points
18
Yet again? What do you mean?
I think Ryan Manning chose Maryland. We have 2 to 3 others we are looking at who are as highly thought of: A. Brown, T Cooley, Marshall, as well as Hayes and T. Brown, Ware who they all like. Not worried about Coach Fleck and Simon at WR recruiting and teaching
 


pharmacygopher

114 Row 11
Joined
Mar 4, 2009
Messages
2,250
Reaction score
445
Points
83
Same as last year so far.
Was last year bad?

Hoskins had an offer from Iowa State

White, who looked good in the spring game, had offers from Boston College, Cincinnati, Maryland, Pitt, Syracuse, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

Assuming PJ and Kirk can show the offense is back to pre Sanford form, they'll be fine recruiting WRs and can probably pick up a transfer (like Dylan Wright) if needed.
 


Boomtime

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2021
Messages
897
Reaction score
434
Points
63
A few, good, objective comments here and happy to see it.

But many keep making excuses for close losses after 5/6 years. Fleck's record against WI/Iowa speaks for itself. What's the winning percentage?

Some think Fleck is the best recruiter in the last two/three decades. If that is true, why is his winning percentage only slighter better than Masons? The answer...he's not a great "in game" HC.

To be on the level of our two biggest rivals in the West, you can't keep making bone headed mistakes.

It's not a difficult concept.
 

MNVCGUY

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 8, 2011
Messages
13,590
Reaction score
8,923
Points
113
A few, good, objective comments here and happy to see it.

But many keep making excuses for close losses after 5/6 years. Fleck's record against WI/Iowa speaks for itself. What's the winning percentage?

Some think Fleck is the best recruiter in the last two/three decades. If that is true, why is his winning percentage only slighter better than Masons? The answer...he's not a great "in game" HC.

To be on the level of our two biggest rivals in the West, you can't keep making bone headed mistakes.

It's not a difficult concept.
Oh goody....you are still around....thought this board was getting a little too peaceful without your special brand of insight.

13-5 in last two full Big Ten seasons. And at Minnesota, Fleck is far and away the best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades....it isn't even close.
 

hungan1

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 20, 2011
Messages
12,963
Reaction score
3,176
Points
113
Ky and Bucky both say otherwise. Ky said he was homesick and wanted to return home. Bucky made it pretty clear it was about $. I have a hard time believing he will get more carries for Oregon this year than he would have gotten here.

As for MJ Anderson, I have no way of knowing for sure, but I'm almost certain a non-football related thing happened. He was already playing a ton and it was in the middle of Badger week. That's bizarre timing. It also happened within days of Cheney leaving. I have no way of knowing and I shouldn't ever find out for sure, but I think all signs point to the fact that there was something outside of football.
PJ Fleck keeps personal things about his players close to his chest. You'd have to ask MJ Anderson. Did Rashad Cheney, Jr. leave because he wants to be a starter?
 

JoeSchmoe

New member
Joined
Aug 14, 2012
Messages
29
Reaction score
3
Points
3
Oh goody....you are still around....thought this board was getting a little too peaceful without your special brand of insight.

13-5 in last two full Big Ten seasons. And at Minnesota, Fleck is far and away the best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades....it isn't even close.
Did PJ recruit all of those key players?
 

short ornery norwegian

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
13,864
Reaction score
6,159
Points
113
The new RB commit makes the class look stronger.

I don't mind taking a flyer on a couple of lower-rated prospects, but when a team does that, it has to realize that it pulls down the overall score.

and perceptions matter.

if the headline is "Gophers have 6th best recruiting class in B1G," that looks a lot better than "Gophers have 11th best recruiting class in B1G."

in the end, the players still have to go out on the field and play.

just saying that, as long as people put stock in the rankings and ratings, I would rather see the Gophers have higher-rated classes.
 



JoeSchmoe

New member
Joined
Aug 14, 2012
Messages
29
Reaction score
3
Points
3
Well, this is a recruiting thread...if he didn't recruit those key players in the years you are speaking of, then how can he be the "best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades"? A lot of Kill and Co players got a 6th year due to Covid. This season will dictate how great of a recruiter PJ is, since these are 100% all of his kids that he recruited and developed. Should be interesting to see how good at recruiting PJ and staff are since this is our first look at his team.
 

kisarazu

Active member
Joined
Jan 20, 2009
Messages
715
Reaction score
143
Points
43
Well, this is a recruiting thread...if he didn't recruit those key players in the years you are speaking of, then how can he be the "best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades"? A lot of Kill and Co players got a 6th year due to Covid. This season will dictate how great of a recruiter PJ is, since these are 100% all of his kids that he recruited and developed. Should be interesting to see how good at recruiting PJ and staff are since this is our first look at his team.
Opinions like these tend to be goalpost movers.
 

WriterGoph

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2009
Messages
5,317
Reaction score
4,901
Points
113
Well, this is a recruiting thread...if he didn't recruit those key players in the years you are speaking of, then how can he be the "best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades"? A lot of Kill and Co players got a 6th year due to Covid. This season will dictate how great of a recruiter PJ is, since these are 100% all of his kids that he recruited and developed. Should be interesting to see how good at recruiting PJ and staff are since this is our first look at his team.

What a 🤡
 


highwayman

Knows Less Than Coaching Staff
Joined
Jan 4, 2009
Messages
7,039
Reaction score
813
Points
113
All I know is the wide receiver recruiting has been crap yet again so far.

When you trot out a prehistoric passing game, it's sure hard to recruit them.
Idiot?

Troll?

Nope, just you.

Sun’s out. No reason to stay in mom’s basement.
 

Bob_Loblaw

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 23, 2009
Messages
16,246
Reaction score
7,308
Points
113
Well, this is a recruiting thread...if he didn't recruit those key players in the years you are speaking of, then how can he be the "best recruiter in the last 2-3 decades"? A lot of Kill and Co players got a 6th year due to Covid. This season will dictate how great of a recruiter PJ is, since these are 100% all of his kids that he recruited and developed. Should be interesting to see how good at recruiting PJ and staff are since this is our first look at his team.
We don't get to factor in the PJ recruits who have already moved on? Blaise, Big Dan, Esezi, Mafe, Bateman, St. Juste, Williamson? We don't get to factor in PJ recruits with eligibility left that have already been fantastic (Nubin, Walley, Mo, JMS)?
 




Top Bottom