Has this recruiting cycle for Coach Fleck been successful thus far?

Gophers1992

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Since I am data driven, I cannot understand the love for PJ's amazing recruiting when it's literally on par to the recruiting success of previous staff. I'm comparing PJ and staff to the previous staff because we were told that he was hired to increase the quality of recruiting. I don't see it yet. Prove me wrong and I'll give you all the credit in the world. It's a head scratcher to me. I'm not debating development as that is a whole different conversation and data set. I'm looking at recruiting at MN and comparing apples to apples.

Here are all the players drafted since 2014 (no players drafted between 2010-2014). From Mafe to St. Juste and then just Williamson are PJ's recruits (7). The rest are the previous staff's recruits (12), except for Hageman and Vereen who were Brew's recruits. This data is on MN's football webpage.

2022Boye MafeLB2nd (40th)Seattle
Daniel FaaleleOL4th (110th)Baltimore
Esezi OtomewoDL5th (165th)Minnesota
Ko KieftTE7th (218th)Tampa Bay
2021Rashod BatemanWR1st (27th)Baltimore
Benjamin St-JusteDB3rd (74th)Washington
2020Antoine Winfield Jr.DB2nd (45th)Tampa Bay
Tyler JohnsonWR5th (161st)Tampa Bay
Kamal MartinLB5th (175th)Green Bay
Carter CoughlinLB7th (218th)New York Giants
Chris WilliamsonDB7th (247th)New York Giants
2019Blake CashmanLB5th (157th)New York Jets
2017Jalen MyrickDB7th (222nd)Jacksonville
2016Eric MurrayDB4th (106th)Kansas City
De'Vondre CampbellLB4th (115th)Atlanta
2015Maxx WilliamsTE2nd (55th)Baltimore
Damien WilsonLB4th (127th)Dallas
David CobbRB5th (138th)Tennessee
Cedric ThompsonS5th (150th)Miami
2014Ra'Shede HagemanDT2nd (37th)Atlanta
Brock VereenS4th (131st)Chicago
I think most of us are willing to put more trust and confidence into PJ's recruiting since we've seen it translate to results on the field, even if the rankings aren't dramatically higher.
 

tjgopher

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Since I am data driven, I cannot understand the love for PJ's amazing recruiting when it's literally on par to the recruiting success of previous staff. I'm comparing PJ and staff to the previous staff because we were told that he was hired to increase the quality of recruiting. I don't see it yet. Prove me wrong and I'll give you all the credit in the world. It's a head scratcher to me. I'm not debating development as that is a whole different conversation and data set. I'm looking at recruiting at MN and comparing apples to apples.

Here are all the players drafted since 2014 (no players drafted between 2010-2014). From Mafe to St. Juste and then just Williamson are PJ's recruits (7). The rest are the previous staff's recruits (12), except for Hageman and Vereen who were Brew's recruits. This data is on MN's football webpage.

2022Boye MafeLB2nd (40th)Seattle
Daniel FaaleleOL4th (110th)Baltimore
Esezi OtomewoDL5th (165th)Minnesota
Ko KieftTE7th (218th)Tampa Bay
2021Rashod BatemanWR1st (27th)Baltimore
Benjamin St-JusteDB3rd (74th)Washington
2020Antoine Winfield Jr.DB2nd (45th)Tampa Bay
Tyler JohnsonWR5th (161st)Tampa Bay
Kamal MartinLB5th (175th)Green Bay
Carter CoughlinLB7th (218th)New York Giants
Chris WilliamsonDB7th (247th)New York Giants
2019Blake CashmanLB5th (157th)New York Jets
2017Jalen MyrickDB7th (222nd)Jacksonville
2016Eric MurrayDB4th (106th)Kansas City
De'Vondre CampbellLB4th (115th)Atlanta
2015Maxx WilliamsTE2nd (55th)Baltimore
Damien WilsonLB4th (127th)Dallas
David CobbRB5th (138th)Tennessee
Cedric ThompsonS5th (150th)Miami
2014Ra'Shede HagemanDT2nd (37th)Atlanta
Brock VereenS4th (131st)Chicago

Actually, Ko Kieft is a Claeys recruit. I think Kill/Claeys did a great job developing guys.

But, again, if you are going to give a coach credit for "just" recruiting guys, then you have to count the eight guys PJ recruited to freaking Western Michigan that got drafted. That is quite impressive and has to be considered when evaluating PJ as a recruiter. It can't be a throw away line "outside of the MAC."

There will be quite a few PJ guys drafted in the coming years, as well.

As a data guy, how is it so hard for you to see some improvement? The data suggests it:

Team recruiting rankings:

2011: 53nd
2012: 73rd
2013: 61st
2014: 52nd
2015: 52nd
2016: 50th
2017: 57th
2018: 43rd
2019: 41st
2020: 38th
2021: 39th
2022: 49th

PJ's worst class is still better than the previous staff's best class. PJ's best classes are double digit better rankings that the previous staff's best classes.

I also think the data strongly suggests that PJ has beaten out many more P5 schools to land recruits than the previous staff. That isn't debatable.

That said, it is clear PJ has advantages in what he can sell with facilities now.

And, ultimately, as you said, the results on the field will decide just what it all means. The data, though, indicates we should be in for a continued upward trend. Of course, it is hard to win games in the Big Ten at Minnesota, as the data suggests, too.
 

JoeSchmoe

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So let’s take a look at both regimes after being 6 years in. Old regime has 6 picks. Fleck has 7. Old regime had only 2 picks over years 7-9. So Fleck only needs 1 draft pick over the next three years to match the old regime.
What are the old regime's 6 picks? Who recruited the other 6 players that were drafted after 2016?
 

JoeSchmoe

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Actually, Ko Kieft is a Claeys recruit. I think Kill/Claeys did a great job developing guys.

But, again, if you are going to give a coach credit for "just" recruiting guys, then you have to count the eight guys PJ recruited to freaking Western Michigan that got drafted. That is quite impressive and has to be considered when evaluating PJ as a recruiter. It can't be a throw away line "outside of the MAC."

There will be quite a few PJ guys drafted in the coming years, as well.

As a data guy, how is it so hard for you to see some improvement? The data suggests it:

Team recruiting rankings:

2011: 53nd
2012: 73rd
2013: 61st
2014: 52nd
2015: 52nd
2016: 50th
2017: 57th
2018: 43rd
2019: 41st
2020: 38th
2021: 39th
2022: 49th

PJ's worst class is still better than the previous staff's best class. PJ's best classes are double digit better rankings that the previous staff's best classes.

I also think the data strongly suggests that PJ has beaten out many more P5 schools to land recruits than the previous staff. That isn't debatable.

That said, it is clear PJ has advantages in what he can sell with facilities now.

And, ultimately, as you said, the results on the field will decide just what it all means. The data, though, indicates we should be in for a continued upward trend. Of course, it is hard to win games in the Big Ten at Minnesota, as the data suggests, too.
because recruiting rankings are just guesses. Results on the field and guys getting drafted is the only real way to determine how good a recruiter is. I agree that the data does not suggest that he is a bad recruiter but how can anyone say he is amazing. The results on the field and guys getting drafted just doesn't support amazing yet.
 

MaxyJR1

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Since I am data driven, I cannot understand the love for PJ's amazing recruiting when it's literally on par to the recruiting success of previous staff. I'm comparing PJ and staff to the previous staff because we were told that he was hired to increase the quality of recruiting. I don't see it yet. Prove me wrong and I'll give you all the credit in the world. It's a head scratcher to me. I'm not debating development as that is a whole different conversation and data set. I'm looking at recruiting at MN and comparing apples to apples.

Here are all the players drafted since 2014 (no players drafted between 2010-2014). From Mafe to St. Juste and then just Williamson are PJ's recruits (7). The rest are the previous staff's recruits (12), except for Hageman and Vereen who were Brew's recruits. This data is on MN's football webpage.

2022Boye MafeLB2nd (40th)Seattle
Daniel FaaleleOL4th (110th)Baltimore
Esezi OtomewoDL5th (165th)Minnesota
Ko KieftTE7th (218th)Tampa Bay
2021Rashod BatemanWR1st (27th)Baltimore
Benjamin St-JusteDB3rd (74th)Washington
2020Antoine Winfield Jr.DB2nd (45th)Tampa Bay
Tyler JohnsonWR5th (161st)Tampa Bay
Kamal MartinLB5th (175th)Green Bay
Carter CoughlinLB7th (218th)New York Giants
Chris WilliamsonDB7th (247th)New York Giants
2019Blake CashmanLB5th (157th)New York Jets
2017Jalen MyrickDB7th (222nd)Jacksonville
2016Eric MurrayDB4th (106th)Kansas City
De'Vondre CampbellLB4th (115th)Atlanta
2015Maxx WilliamsTE2nd (55th)Baltimore
Damien WilsonLB4th (127th)Dallas
David CobbRB5th (138th)Tennessee
Cedric ThompsonS5th (150th)Miami
2014Ra'Shede HagemanDT2nd (37th)Atlanta
Brock VereenS4th (131st)Chicago
You say you are data driven and then you posted development driven data, which is players getting drafted. Recruiting is ratings data and it stops there IMO.
 


tjgopher

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because recruiting rankings are just guesses. Results on the field and guys getting drafted is the only real way to determine how good a recruiter is.

You're kind of moving the goalposts, right? You say recruiting only, so I post recruiting rankings and then you claim recruiting is just guess work and it is results that matter. Well, that IS development. So, maybe, PJ should get some credit for some of the guys he didn't recruit?


The results on the field and guys getting drafted just doesn't support amazing yet.

So, you do or don't want to compare the previous staff to the current one? Results?

Jerry Kill in eight years as a Division I head coach has one 10-win season (at NIU), a division title, and is 0-5 in bowl games. Best bowl game was Outback Bowl in 2014, a loss to Missouri.

PJ Fleck in nine years as a Division I head coach (in exactly the same two conferences), has a 13-win season, an 11-win season, 3 division titles, a NY6 bowl appearance, and is 4-3 in bowl games (3-0 at Minnesota). Best bowl game was Cotton Bowl, a loss to Wisconsin. More players drafted.

The data is talking to you, if you are truly interested in data.
 
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Gophers1992

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because recruiting rankings are just guesses. Results on the field and guys getting drafted is the only real way to determine how good a recruiter is. I agree that the data does not suggest that he is a bad recruiter but how can anyone say he is amazing. The results on the field and guys getting drafted just doesn't support amazing yet.
Did anyone use the term "amazing" to describe his recruiting? If so I apologize as I haven't read the whole thread.
 

JoeSchmoe

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You're kind of moving the goalposts, right? You say recruiting only, so I post recruiting rankings and you claim recruiting is just guess work and it is that results matter. Well, that IS development. So, maybe, PJ should get some credit for some of the guys he didn't recruit?




So, you do or don't want to compare the previous staff to the current one? Results?

Jerry Kill in eight years as a Division I head coach has one 10-win season (at NIU), a division title, and is 0-5 in bowl games. Best bowl game was Outback Bowl in 2014, a loss to Missouri.

PJ Fleck in nine years as a Division I head coach (in exactly the same two conferences), has a 13-win season, an 11-win season, 3 division titles, a NY6 bowl appearance, and is 4-3 in bowl games (3-0 at Minnesota). Best bowl game was Cotton Bowl, a loss to Wisconsin. More players drafted.

The data is talking to you, if you are truly interested in data.
I don't have the time nor the desire to debate the coaching careers of PJ and Kill. There are so many factors in both of their careers. If you want to debate that PJ is the best coach compared to Kill then be my guest. Probably the place you want to look at first was the state of the programs they both took over. What was the record of NIU and MN before Kill took over and when he left? What was the record of WMU and MN before PJ took over and the last year? Why stop at just those 2 schools. Average out what Kill did at all his other stops. I don't care what you do.
 

short ornery norwegian

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this new WR commit looks interesting. 10.87 in the 100m dash in HS.

if your guy can run faster than the guy on the other team, that is usually a good thing.

as to all of the recent posts, if this is how you want to spend your holiday..............
 




MNVCGUY

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Yes. The term was used by schmoe.
Yeah, good ole Joe created the whole amazing recruiting thing and then is using flimsy facts to try and prove his point. Definitely doesn't have an agenda.....yeah definitely.
 

tjgopher

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I don't have the time nor the desire to debate the coaching careers of PJ and Kill. There are so many factors in both of their careers. If you want to debate that PJ is the best coach compared to Kill then be my guest. Probably the place you want to look at first was the state of the programs they both took over. What was the record of NIU and MN before Kill took over and when he left? What was the record of WMU and MN before PJ took over and the last year? Why stop at just those 2 schools. Average out what Kill did at all his other stops. I don't care what you do.

Ok, I'll bite. Data is data.

Jerry Kill took over a Northern Illinois program run by Joe Novak, who strongly established the program, had a winning record is 7 of the 8 seasons before Kill took over and finished 1st or 2nd in the division 6 of the previous 9 seasons before Kill got the job. The program spent some time in the Top 25 and beat Alabama under Novak, who retired at 62 years old. Kill got them to ten wins, lost the MAC title game, and the Humanitarian Bowl. After Kill left NIU, the program went to the Orange Bowl two years later under Dave Doeren.

PJ took over a program at Western Michigan that finished 2nd in the division exactly once in the previous 8 years, had four winning records in eight years under Bill Cubit, who was fired at 58 years old. PJ got them to 13 wins, won the MAC title game and lost the Cotton Bowl. After PJ left WMU, the program has topped out at 8 wins under Tim Lester.

I actually think the two guys inherited similar situations in the MAC. Maybe Jerry stepped into a slightly better spot. Both guys did well.

Clearly at Minnesota, Kill took over a messy situation and improved it, getting it back to respectability and credibility. But, so did PJ Fleck. Remember, Fleck walked into a situation with no starting QB, very few offensive linemen, his top defensive back suing the school and saying he was transferring (which Fleck talked him out of), many of his top defensive players kicked out of school, and he also improved on that, winning 11 games, including against Wisconsin and the Outback Bowl. Both guys did well.

I think they are both good coaches.
 
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Some guy

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Why do you pull out 2020?
Even if you leave it in. 16-9 over 3 seasons 64% is the first 3 year big ten winning percentage at 50% since 85-87

First over 50% since 71-73

Highest since 67-69


If you’re a “data guy” that’s about the most important data you can have.



Best 3 year stretch since 67-69
 

btowngopher

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What are the old regime's 6 picks? Who recruited the other 6 players that were drafted after 2016?
Murray, Campbell,Cobb, Williams, Wilson, and Thompson. Why would I look at the years beyond 2016 for them at this point? So since someone pointed out Kieft was a Claeys guy we’ll give the old regime 7 picks from 2017-2022. So fleck needs 7 picks over the next six years to match the old regime I guess.
 

JoeSchmoe

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Murray, Campbell,Cobb, Williams, Wilson, and Thompson. Why would I look at the years beyond 2016 for them at this point? So since someone pointed out Kieft was a Claeys guy we’ll give the old regime 7 picks from 2017-2022. So fleck needs 7 picks over the next six years to match the old regime I guess.
If we are talking about recruiting, then who recruited Murray, Campbell, Cobb, Williams, Wilson, and Thompson?
 

btowngopher

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If we are talking about recruiting, then who recruited Murray, Campbell, Cobb, Williams, Wilson, and Thompson?
Bro you asked who the 6 were, and I told you. You know we both know who recruited them. What’s your point?
 


Gophers_4life

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You say you are data driven and then you posted development driven data, which is players getting drafted. Recruiting is ratings data and it stops there IMO.
What about 3* players who are raw out of high school and/or not able to contribute right away, but the coach sees their potential to be coached up into high level college players and NFL draft picks?

Boye Mafe?
 

MaxyJR1

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What about 3* players who are raw out of high school and/or not able to contribute right away, but the coach sees their potential to be coached up into high level college players and NFL draft picks?

Boye Mafe?
I think 90% of D1 recruits fall into this category.
 

Gophers_4life

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I think 90% of D1 recruits fall into this category.
Probably something like that.

But if taking the post I replied to (of yours) literally, it seems you don't want to give any "recruiting credit" to coaches for this? Or did I misunderstand it?

I mean, I get it if you take the NFL bit in isolation, since in of itself that doesn't necessarily imply that the player was a game-changer for us in college. But usually, it does imply that to at least some degree ...
 

MaxyJR1

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Probably something like that.

But if taking the post I replied to (of yours) literally, it seems you don't want to give any "recruiting credit" to coaches for this? Or did I misunderstand it?

I mean, I get it if you take the NFL bit in isolation, since in of itself that doesn't necessarily imply that the player was a game-changer for us in college. But usually, it does imply that to at least some degree ...
No, I was just saying that NFL picks are based on the college performance and development. I agree that good recruiters can see the potential when recruiting.
 

Gophers_4life

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Fleck, or any coach, at Minnesota is never going to have an Ohio State class.

We're always going to have mostly 3* kids who were overlooked, or never gotten to by other P5, or we beat out other P5 "like us", and then coached them up.

With a few "gems" sprinkled in. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, if culture and coaching still results in averaging 9 wins a year.
 



btowngopher

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This class will finish in the same ballpark as the classes Fleck has been winning with. Is that a success? I dunno, but doesn’t appear we’ve lost ground.
 

JoeSchmoe

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Murray, Campbell,Cobb, Williams, Wilson, and Thompson. Why would I look at the years beyond 2016 for them at this point? So since someone pointed out Kieft was a Claeys guy we’ll give the old regime 7 picks from 2017-2022. So fleck needs 7 picks over the next six years to match the old regime I guess.
Who recruited these guys?

2020Antoine Winfield Jr.DB2nd (45th)Tampa Bay
Tyler JohnsonWR5th (161st)Tampa Bay
Kamal MartinLB5th (175th)Green Bay
Carter CoughlinLB7th (218th)New York Giants
Chris WilliamsonDB7th (247th)New York Giants
2019Blake CashmanLB5th (157th)New York Jets
2017Jalen MyrickDB7th (222nd)Jacksonville
 

btowngopher

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Who recruited these guys?

2020Antoine Winfield Jr.DB2nd (45th)Tampa Bay
Tyler JohnsonWR5th (161st)Tampa Bay
Kamal MartinLB5th (175th)Green Bay
Carter CoughlinLB7th (218th)New York Giants
Chris WilliamsonDB7th (247th)New York Giants
2019Blake CashmanLB5th (157th)New York Jets
2017Jalen MyrickDB7th (222nd)Jacksonville
Dude, again, what is your point? We both know who recruited who. You quoted me saying Kill/Claeys had seven drafted between 2017-2022, so why are you asking me who recruited those guys?
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Kill/Claeys recruited 2 - 4* composite recruits total over their 6 years here, Coughlin and Jeff Jones, and Jones never played.

Fleck has 7 - 4* composite recruits on this upcoming roster alone, after having 9 - 4* recruits on last year's roster. He has 1 committed so far in this class, with the potential for more.

As of today Fleck has recruited 15 composite 4*s to Minnesota while the previous staff only recruited 2. That's on top of all of the lower 3* recruits he has developed. Not only has the talent increased on paper, it's obvious it has increased on the field by just watching how much the gap has closed between Minnesota and Wisconsin/Iowa.
 
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A_Slab_of_Bacon

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Dude, again, what is your point? We both know who recruited who. You quoted me saying Kill/Claeys had seven drafted between 2017-2022, so why are you asking me who recruited those guys?
I'm not following that user but we had a notable troll in the past who seemed to not have any reading comprehension / just ask the same questions that started the conversation just a few quotes later ...

Not worth the time if they can't hold up their end of the conversation.
 




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