I'm not hung up on this; I think it's worth revisiting.
St Thomas is now 8-1 (6-0) and in first place in the Pioneer Football League. They made their debut in the FCS coaches' poll last week at #25 and moved up to #23 following their 34-7 win against 4-5 (3-3) Valparaiso on Saturday. St Thomas has already beaten 7-2 (5-1) Davidson, last year's league champion, 27-16. They have two games left in 2022, against 3-5 Stetson and 7-2 Butler, and I think we have to give them a better than 50/50 chance of winning out and being league champs in their second season in FCS.
That would put them at 10-1 (8-0) for the season, and almost undoubtedly ranked 20th or higher.
Chalk it up to a weak schedule, but in any case I'm not seeing how Western Illinois, which is currently 0-9 (0-6 in the MVFC) is a better opponent.