Gophers up as 9.5 point underdogs at Indiana

Donate To GopherHole

Indiana lost at home to Navy this season. Navy was able to have long sustainable drives and keep the Hoosier offense off the field. This is exactly what the Gophers will do to win in Bloomington on Saturday.
 

The Wynn opened up at an even Gophers (+10), the first Vegas casino line I've seen released. I don't expect it to move much between now and Saturday.

I like this matchup. In each of Indiana's losses, they have been at LEAST -11 in Time of Possession. In their only BT win, they were only -11. In other losses they were -13, -15, -17, etc.

I expect the Gophers to absolutely own this stat on Saturday. It's as much about reducing scoring opportunities for IU as it is about disrupting rhythm. Getting off to a good start will be huge
 

The Navy game is the blueprint on how to beat Indiana

Benadryl Brownies said:
Indiana lost at home to Navy this season. Navy was able to have long sustainable drives and keep the Hoosier offense off the field. This is exactly what the Gophers will do to win in Bloomington on Saturday.
Click to expand...

May I suggest watching a lot of that game film. If we can exploit there defensive weakness like Navy did then we will see the Gophers keep the Hoosier offense off the field. Combine the fact
that David Cobb and Donnel Kirkwood can pound the rock and they will not have an easy time stopping the run. Hopefully our offensive line can keep playing at a high level and the backs
keep picking the right holes.
This will not be an easy game but I expect the Gophers to win. We should have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines. Control the clock
and pound the crap out of their O-line and D-line and keep there no huddle offense on the sideline. Nebraska has equal athletes at the skill positions, we attack Indiana like that
and the Gophers will win. The Gophers are better than the Indiana fans and oddsmakers believe, this is a winnable game. Gophers have some Mo and I don't think they want to let go of it.
 

Indiana does not scare me. Yes, they have one of the best scoring offenses in the country, but they also have won of the worst defenses in the FBS. I think this game will be a lot like San Jose State. We will score at will with long drives. It will only take a handful of stops by our defense to win the game in my opinion.
 


gopherdudepart2 said:
May I suggest watching a lot of that game film. If we can exploit there defensive weakness like Navy did then we will see the Gophers keep the Hoosier offense off the field. Combine the fact
that David Cobb and Donnel Kirkwood can pound the rock and they will not have an easy time stopping the run. Hopefully our offensive line can keep playing at a high level and the backs
keep picking the right holes.
This will not be an easy game but I expect the Gophers to win. We should have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines. Control the clock
and pound the crap out of their O-line and D-line and keep there no huddle offense on the sideline. Nebraska has equal athletes at the skill positions, we attack Indiana like that
and the Gophers will win. The Gophers are better than the Indiana fans and oddsmakers believe, this is a winnable game. Gophers have some Mo and I don't think they want to let go of it.
Click to expand...

Their defensive weakness is when their defense is on the field.
 

Jike Spingleton said:
Beating them on Saturday will end their chances of going bowling, since they have trips to Wisconsin and Ohio State on deck.

Knowing their season is on the line, Indiana will be playing with another level of intensity. I hope we can match that.
Click to expand...

This is a very profound post & the type of thing that factors heavily into a college football game. Combine that with the hangover/letdown a team often feels after a big win (i.e. The Gophers) & this line seems right to me.
 

Gopherprof said:
Actually it started at 7 and has been creeping up since.

I don't get it. Indiana is better than their record, and I'd be fine with a spread of 4-6 points given that they are at home, but 9.5 seems kinda crazy.
Click to expand...

Where did it open -7?
 

When I texted the 9.5 point line to my buddy, he responded with "damn, I was hoping for 10 points, I wanted us to go for the hat trick against Vegas" (referring to a discussion him and I had asking when the last time a BCS team won back to back conference games as a double digit underdog). I told him we should bet Indiana to try to move the needle.
 



howeda7 said:
9.5 is way too much. 3-6 is where it will end up.
Click to expand...

Barring their QB breaking his leg in practice or something of the sort this will not happen. I could absolutely see the squares playing Minnesota this week & dropping the line all the way to -7.5, but the books won't cross -7 or -6 unless something absolutely drastic happens.

There are "key numbers" one doesn't cross as the bookie for reasons of risk management. -3, -4, -6, -7, -10, -14, et al. You can come off a number like dropping from -10 to -9.5, but rarely will you see them cross the number i.e. -10, to -9.5, to -9. What you're proposing involves -10, -7, -6, -4 & -3 & that ain't gonna happen. Also, some numbers are more powerful than others such as 3 & 7.

In our case, the minute the books drop to -6.5 the sharps would absolutely pound Indiana -6.5 since they already bet Minnesota +10 earlier. Now they sit back & hope for Indiana to win by 7, 8 or 9 so they win both bets. Essentially risking the juice on one bet to win the total amount on both bets.
 


I'm not going to argue with Vegas on this one (I've been on the wrong side too many times!), but I think they're way off. Defensively, they allow 37 points per game, 500 yards per game, and have only had 4-interceptions. I don't get it.

Sure they have a "track-meet" style offense, but Navy stifled them.

Perhaps the oddsmakers and those that take spread think we'll have a letdown after Nebraska and that the week off will get Indiana prepared and they'll play inspired home football as they vie for a bowl birth.

As far as I'm concerned, they beat a down Penn State team. Does that translate to a 9.5 point spread. Apparently it does. Sheesh...
 

Rescooter said:
I'm not going to argue with Vegas on this one (I've been on the wrong side too many times!), but I think they're way off. Defensively, they allow 37 points per game, 500 yards per game, and have only had 4-interceptions. I don't get it.

Sure they have a "track-meet" style offense, but Navy stifled them.

Perhaps the oddsmakers and those that take spread think we'll have a letdown after Nebraska and that the week off will get Indiana prepared and they'll play inspired home football as they vie for a bowl birth.
As far as I'm concerned, they beat a down Penn State team. Does that translate to a 9.5 point spread. Apparently it does. Sheesh...
Click to expand...

Maybe they caught wind we would be starting a back up QB (Nelson)??
 



Iceland12 said:
Offshores, and the early money is coming heavily on Minnesota and taking the points.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/11-02-13/time/1530
Click to expand...

Which offshores though specifically?

Ice, try using SportsbookReview's "Live Odds" as you'll get relevant sportsbooks & much more accurate line movements. I'm trying not to be a bookie snob here but VegasInsider is to sports betting as the USA Today is to journalism. VegasInsider is nothing more than a marketing website designed to sell you handicapper picks & trick newbies into depositing with Sportsbook.com, who's notorious for not paying their players when they win.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/college-football/
 

Rescooter said:
I'm not going to argue with Vegas on this one (I've been on the wrong side too many times!), but I think they're way off. Defensively, they allow 37 points per game, 500 yards per game, and have only had 4-interceptions. I don't get it.

Sure they have a "track-meet" style offense, but Navy stifled them.

Perhaps the oddsmakers and those that take spread think we'll have a letdown after Nebraska and that the week off will get Indiana prepared and they'll play inspired home football as they vie for a bowl birth.

As far as I'm concerned, they beat a down Penn State team. Does that translate to a 9.5 point spread. Apparently it does. Sheesh...
Click to expand...

You're being WAY to hard on yourself. If it's true that nearly all bets are taking Minnesota and those points and the "split the money in half" belief is true, then you're right, that spread is going down. It's "logical" right? :cool:

Betting Trend
Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Spread Money O/U
363 Minnesota (6-2) (2-1 A) W-2 95% n/a n/a
364 Indiana (3-4) (3-2 H) L-2 -7 -10 5% n/a n/a
 

Gopherprof said:
Actually it started at 7 and has been creeping up since.

I don't get it. Indiana is better than their record, and I'd be fine with a spread of 4-6 points given that they are at home, but 9.5 seems kinda crazy.
Click to expand...

I agree 9.5 is insane.

Indiana is NOT better than their record. They are exactly their record. There is no such thing as "better or worse than your record" unless you forfeit or have wins vacated. I wish the 2003 Gophers would have beaten Mch and MSU, but the games ended up the way they ended up.

Here's the facts:
Indiana is 10th in NCAA FBS passing offense and 119th in total defense. That is why they are 3-4.
Minnesota is 23rd in rushing offense and 36th in total defense. That is why they are 6-2.

Minnesota is giving up 14 points a game less.

Indiana is what Indiana is. They are built for excitement, and will lose games they should win.

Minnesota is what Minnesota is. They are boring and built to win games they shouldn't win.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
Which offshores though specifically?

Ice, try using SportsbookReview's "Live Odds" as you'll get relevant sportsbooks & much more accurate line movements. I'm trying not to be a bookie snob here but VegasInsider is to sports betting as the USA Today is to journalism. VegasInsider is nothing more than a marketing website designed to sell you handicapper picks & trick newbies into depositing with Sportsbook.com, who's notorious for not paying their players when they win.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/college-football/
Click to expand...

Appreciate that Costa, and understand that you know WAY more about sports betting then me, or probably anybody else around here too, but truthfully, I don't care about what the off shores are saying or betting on games on the internet.

Have far more faith in the Nevada Casino Books and only bet there anyway. That's why I'll wait to see what they start posting today.

Just trying to help answer your question. Sorry about that.
 

Iceland12 said:
Appreciate that Costa, and understand that you know WAY more about sports betting then me, or probably anybody else around here too, but truthfully, I don't care about what the off shores are saying or betting on games on the internet.

Have far more faith in the Nevada Casino Books and only bet there anyway. That's why I'll wait to see what they start posting today.

Just trying to help answer your question. Sorry about that.
Click to expand...

I know the people involved with VegasInsider & Sportsbook.com so I'm not completely unbiased :rolleyes:.

I have a hard time believing Indiana opened at -7 (it's possible though) & am trying to find out where that actually happened or to dispel it altogether. I suspect they invented that number to generate interest. It seems to me this game opened at -9.5/-10 & will likely drop a couple points during the week as the public money accumulates on Minnesota.

I don't blame you for waiting on or betting with the Vegas books though. If you're a recreational player they'll work just fine for you.
 

Minnesota has been tough this year when they can move the ball on the ground, keeps the defense off the field and fresh and provides a better oppurtunity to come up with some big plays. I almost like the odd's even up on this game, where do I bet this spread.
 


I don't bet on sports, I just use seat of the pants stuff to figure what works for me.
To me this game is a push, but I'd give 3pts to Indiana for home field advantage & the pressure of getting bowl eligible, while the Gophers have set their goals higher, to knock the spread down to 1 or 2 points in favor of Indiana.
 

highwayman said:
Here's the facts:
Indiana is 10th in NCAA FBS passing offense and 119th in total defense. That is why they are 3-4.
Minnesota is 23rd in rushing offense and 36th in total defense. That is why they are 6-2.
Click to expand...
Well, and because Indiana's non-conf was considerably harder than ours.
 

Plinnius said:
Happened at Bookmaker.
Click to expand...

Ok, makes sense now. That line didn't really open at -7 then, that is to say it was never available to the public to bet on at -7.

Bookmaker goes up first with their lines & what they do is allow one "wiseguy" (professional bettor) to bet into their lines first. They get them ironed out at greatly reduced limits that way. So in this case specifically, they took one bet at -7 at overnight (i.e. greatly reduced) limits, moved straight to -8 & took another overnight/reduced limit bet from the same account, then went to -9.5 where they opened the line for betting to the public.

Now they'll stay at -9.5, let the general public bet +9.5 all week and maybe come back to -9 if they get too lopsided. They're now on the "right side" of the game rooting with the wiseguy who "ironed out" their line & hoping their "squares" (recreational bettors) will lose.

Furthermore, for those that think the books are looking for 50/50 action on both sides of the games, well you just got a peek at how it really works. :)
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
Now they'll stay at -9.5, let the general public bet +9.5 all week and maybe come back to -9 if they get too lopsided. They're now on the "right side" of the game rooting with the wiseguy who "ironed out" their line & hoping their "squares" (recreational bettors) will lose.
Click to expand...

One of the best things about watching line movement is the feel for which side the "squares" are on. I know there are sites that give you the betting percentages not sure how accurate they are but you can get a sense on which why the general public is leaning.

The general public will more likely lean Minnesota based on coming off the Nebraska win. If the line stays at 9.5 or makes a small move down to 9 you will know which side the books are on.
 

So it sounds to me like Indiana is San Jose St. with better receivers and a slightly worse defense. Does that seem fair to those who know more than me? If so, I like our chances since we know that we can slow down the pace and keep their offense off the field.
 

MinneStoa said:
So it sounds to me like Indiana is San Jose St. with better receivers and a slightly worse defense. Does that seem fair to those who know more than me? If so, I like our chances since we know that we can slow down the pace and keep their offense off the field.
Click to expand...
Indiana's offense is light years ahead of San Jose State. By the numbers they have the 4th best offense in the country this year.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ankings-baylor-offense-michigan-state-defense

That said, if we wanted a blueprint to beat Indiana, I'd look at the Navy-Indiana game, as others have mentioned, and our game against SJSU. It's just that Indiana is a much, much better version of that, with a stud at runningback (Tevin Coleman)
 

Indiana has an excellent offense. No question. They also have the worst defense in the Big Ten. The Gophers should be able to drive the field and control the clock. The defense will hopefully come up with a few stops.....as they have clearly been progressing these past couple of weeks.

I have the Gophers winning 48-34.
 

Match ups, match ups, match ups.

Indiana has one decent win this year, PSU. PSU had a whopping 70 yards rushing.

In their other three games against BCS conference, they've allowed on average around 250-260 yards rushing. They've also been crushed in TOP in those three losses.

This is a good matchup. The Gophers may not quite stack up to Michigan, MSU and of course Mizzou, but they arguably want to run the ball more than any of those teams.

Goals: 50+ carries for 250+ yards rushing, and 37+ minutes TOP equals victory (provided they don't turn the ball over a lot) equals Victory.
 


Costa Rican Gopher said:
Barring their QB breaking his leg in practice or something of the sort this will not happen. I could absolutely see the squares playing Minnesota this week & dropping the line all the way to -7.5, but the books won't cross -7 or -6 unless something absolutely drastic happens.

There are "key numbers" one doesn't cross as the bookie for reasons of risk management. -3, -4, -6, -7, -10, -14, et al. You can come off a number like dropping from -10 to -9.5, but rarely will you see them cross the number i.e. -10, to -9.5, to -9. What you're proposing involves -10, -7, -6, -4 & -3 & that ain't gonna happen. Also, some numbers are more powerful than others such as 3 & 7.

In our case, the minute the books drop to -6.5 the sharps would absolutely pound Indiana -6.5 since they already bet Minnesota +10 earlier. Now they sit back & hope for Indiana to win by 7, 8 or 9 so they win both bets. Essentially risking the juice on one bet to win the total amount on both bets.
Click to expand...

You brought a smile to my face CR...reminded me of misspent youth betting football. Plus Costa Rica is my favorite place on the planet!
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom