Gophers up as 9.5 point underdogs at Indiana

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Line dropped to -8 today over a matter of a few hours. Huge swing. Wish I had placed my bet earlier.. was looking at +295 betting on the Gophs moneyline, now it is 265.. I still think it is a good bet, but barely.
 


hyaluronic said:
Line dropped to -8 today over a matter of a few hours. Huge swing. Wish I had placed my bet earlier.. was looking at +295 betting on the Gophs moneyline, now it is 265.. I still think it is a good bet, but barely.
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Looking at this as a handicapper, when they put out a line like that, they are begging people to take Minnesota. They know the Gophers are coming off a big win over Nebraska as well as Northwestern and are betting on a Minnesota let down, which history would indicate would happen here. Unfortunately for them, this is a new staff and this is unprecedented territory. The Gophers could buck that trend with the new staff. Also, a big factor is this is a must-win game for the Hoosiers and that could contribute to the high number. Gophers have been running the ball a lot better the last couple weeks so their numbers may be a little misleading and they are better than Vegas thinks.

Bottom line -- no way in hell would I bet the Hoosiers and I think Vegas could really lose their ass on this game with a line that skewed. Time will tell, but I think that they still have not adjusted the Gophers current situation in their line yet. Time will tell, but if I were betting, I would absolutely hammer the bet on the Gophers because I believe in this coaching staff and this team.
 

Gold Rush said:
Looking at this as a handicapper, when they put out a line like that, they are begging people to take Minnesota. They know the Gophers are coming off a big win over Nebraska as well as Northwestern and are betting on a Minnesota let down, which history would indicate would happen here. Unfortunately for them, this is a new staff and this is unprecedented territory. The Gophers could buck that trend with the new staff. Also, a big factor is this is a must-win game for the Hoosiers and that could contribute to the high number. Gophers have been running the ball a lot better the last couple weeks so their numbers may be a little misleading and they are better than Vegas thinks.

Bottom line -- no way in hell would I bet the Hoosiers and I think Vegas could really lose their ass on this game with a line that skewed. Time will tell, but I think that they still have not adjusted the Gophers current situation in their line yet. Time will tell, but if I were betting, I would absolutely hammer the bet on the Gophers because I believe in this coaching staff and this team.
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The professional bettors like Indiana. They bet the game early & moved the line. This is all just square money betting on Minnesota because we beat Nebraska last week. The books want to be on the side of the professionals, not the squares. It might not work out on this game specifically, but over the long haul this formula is a money maker.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
The professional bettors like Indiana. They bet the game early & moved the line. This is all just square money betting on Minnesota because we beat Nebraska last week. The books want to be on the side of the professionals, not the squares. It might not work out on this game specifically, but over the long haul this formula is a money maker.
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The "smart money" is on Indiana. For all the reasons you stated the books are wanting an Indiana cover.

Shouldn't decide the play but line movement espeically early movement is worth taking note of when handicapping a game.
 


Seems like a lot more gambling talk on the Hole this year, which is fine. I just wish they would put out the depth chart or something else for us to chew on. It is becoming a tough wait for Sat.
 

mnsports1 said:
Seems like a lot more gambling talk on the Hole this year, which is fine. I just wish they would put out the depth chart or something else for us to chew on. It is becoming a tough wait for Sat.
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Indiana injury report:

INDIANA
[OG] 08/21/2013 - Dan Feeney out for season ( Foot )
[LB] 08/13/2013 - Chase Hoobler out indefinitely ( Stress Fracture )
[OL] 10/09/2013 - David Kaminski out for season ( ACL )
[OT] 10/16/2013 - Peyton Eckert out for season ( Back )
 

MGM-Mirage, LVH and South Point have all joined the Wynn at 7.5.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
The professional bettors like Indiana. They bet the game early & moved the line. This is all just square money betting on Minnesota because we beat Nebraska last week. The books want to be on the side of the professionals, not the squares. It might not work out on this game specifically, but over the long haul this formula is a money maker.
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CRG - You seem to know much more about this than I do. I think there was at least some smart money on the Gophers. The lines were holding steady around -9.5 for quite awhile, then over a five (ish?) hour period on Thursday, all the books were pushed to -8 or -8.5. I take that to mean some high stakes money was being bet on the Gophers side. Am I reading that incorrectly?

Oh - one more thing - my sports betting experience (prior to today) has been at Vegas in the Super Bowl. What I heard smart money was doing was waiting to place their bets until late Saturday early Sunday. And the smart money was on the Ravens (and I forget the O/U now...), but I know the rumors I heard of "smart money" nailed the over/under and the +/- bet.

Is it typical for "smart money" to wait, or bet early, or does it just depend game to game based upon how they feel John Q. Public will push the line?
 



And another general question for people who know more about this than me. If my calculations are correct, for a spread line bet (typically -110), my break-even point is if I am 52.38% sure my team will cover the spread, assuming my analysis is correct. My amateur breakdown of the game is 40% chance Gopher win, 20% Gopher close loss, 40% big Gopher loss. So, I am looking at a 60% confidence level, and it is a good bet (if I am right).

However, I bet the money line at +270. So, the break-even point for % chance of winning is 100/370 a little over 27%. Again, assuming my analysis is correct, my expected payout would be 60 (estimated chance we cover) /52.38 for the line and 40 (estimated chance we win)/27, which would break out to $1.14 per dollar bet and $1.48 per dollar, respectively. So my smart bet would be the moneyline and picking the Gophers straight up.

So, to anyone more knowledgeable than me, two questions: Is my math/logic sound? Did I place a good bet w/ the Gophers on the moneyline?
 

I have always enjoyed it when people talk about the "smart money". The "smart money" is the money that people leave in their wallets.
 


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