Gophers open as 8 point underdogs at TCU

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stocker08 said:
Stopped over to check the projections on the frogs board. The majority seem to think that this should be a two to three touchdown win. Odd considering that they were a four win team last year.
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All I can say is "Syracuse".
 

stocker08 said:
Stopped over to check the projections on the frogs board. The majority seem to think that this should be a two to three touchdown win. Odd considering that they were a four win team last year.
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What does Vegas think?
 


Had to pull the trigger again...Bet Gophers +13.5 but just got +16 now
 

Spoofin said:
Vegas thinks 14 points is the about the middle mark on bets. Not the same thing as what 'vegas' thinks will be the score.
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Yes, we all know what the spread means. But you're kidding yourself if you think Vegas determines the middle mark on bets by doing anything other than judging the relative strengths of each team. Any other method and the sharps would kill them. Either way, my point remains...TCU folks aren't the only ones predicting a 2+ touchdown victory. The betting public is right there with them. I personally think it's going to be 4-7 points either way, though.
 


GoFrogs said:
Yes, we all know what the spread means. But you're kidding yourself if you think Vegas determines the middle mark on bets by doing anything other than judging the relative strengths of each team. Any other method and the sharps would kill them. Either way, my point remains...TCU folks aren't the only ones predicting a 2+ touchdown victory. The betting public is right there with them. I personally think it's going to be 4-7 points either way, though.
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Actually, there are proven cases where my 'kidding myself' is known. There are certain teams (Lakers are the best) where they are bet more than their opponent no matter what the spread is. In those games the lines shift that way. Do they shift 14-points? No. I was simply asked what Vegas thinks and I answered. Good luck this weekend. Could be a long one.
 

GoFrog,

Are to able to compare the 2013 TCU defense vs other top tier defenses like Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa?

During the 2008-2010 era TCU was top 10 in both rushing and passing defense and i believe #1 in scoring defense. You've fallen off quite a bit from those years, statistically. What do you attribute this to? Schedule, injuries? You had a decent year yardage-wise and average scoring defense last year. Dou you feel the defense will reverse the trend over the past 4 years and improve?

What's the story on your dual threat QB? His stats were pretty pedestrian in an offense that gave Minnesota a run for it's money in terms of scoring ineptitude. Do you feel like he is still developing with potential to master the new Air Raid system or do you expect Joeckel to overtake him at some point? We are an impatient lot in MN...

Looking forward to a good game this weekend. I'm pretty nervous about our defensive front holding up. Odds are TCU pulls it out, but I can see some paths to victory for my gophs. May the better team win.
 





Pompous Elitist said:
GoFrog,

Are to able to compare the 2013 TCU defense vs other top tier defenses like Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa?

During the 2008-2010 era TCU was top 10 in both rushing and passing defense and i believe #1 in scoring defense. You've fallen off quite a bit from those years, statistically. What do you attribute this to? Schedule, injuries? You had a decent year yardage-wise and average scoring defense last year. Dou you feel the defense will reverse the trend over the past 4 years and improve?

What's the story on your dual threat QB? His stats were pretty pedestrian in an offense that gave Minnesota a run for it's money in terms of scoring ineptitude. Do you feel like he is still developing with potential to master the new Air Raid system or do you expect Joeckel to overtake him at some point? We are an impatient lot in MN...

Looking forward to a good game this weekend. I'm pretty nervous about our defensive front holding up. Odds are TCU pulls it out, but I can see some paths to victory for my gophs. May the better team win.
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Hard to compare defenses between us and Big 10 schools. We face entirely different offenses than they do. We finished last year ranked 13th in total D, and that's after playing 4 of the top 13 offenses in the country (3 on the road) and having our own offense set Guinness records for 3-and-outs. I think we're pretty good there.

Biggest reason for the statistical drop of the D is that we're playing much better offenses now.

Boykin's play last year is difficult to judge because the offense (particularly the line and receivers) was terrible. Play calling stunk, too, but the line really struggled and receivers ran bad routes and dropped lots of balls. The O was just a complete mess. I think Boykin remains the primary guy all year, but Joeckel will get some snaps too. I don't expect great things in year one of the new offense. But even average things would be a nice step in the right direction. And I think we've got at least that.

Looking forward to a good game tomorrow. Safe travels if you're headed this way.
 

Looking at the raw numbers TCU was 25th nationally in total defense last year. Also, 54th in scoring defense, 58th in passing defense, 21st in rushing. What yardstick are you using for 13th?
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Looking at the raw numbers TCU was 25th nationally in total defense last year. Also, 54th in scoring defense, 58th in passing defense, 21st in rushing. What yardstick are you using for 13th?
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They were 13th in yards per play against, which I would agree is a better measuring stick than total yards.
 

The spread is going to swell on this one. To the national perspective, it should be a rout.
 




By yards per game 25th, total yardage 13th. But they didn't play a bowl game. Cfbstats.com.

Some of the massaged numbers will also indicate 13th.
 

Examples of how statistics can be misleading. Bottom line is they are good. Will they shut us down like Iowa did last year? Can mitch make the throws that Phil airmailed to make them pay?

All remains to be seen.
 

<img id="ums_img_tooltip" class="UMSRatingIcon">
4:00 PMMINNESOTA
TCU-15.5-16-15.5-15-15.5
O/U:4949 49


<tbody>
</tbody>
 

I'm wondering how closely TCU resembles Syracuse from the bowl game last year. Syracuse had a good run D and ran an aggressive defense. It sounds like TCU is similar although they probably have a better secondary and overall defense. Syracuse also ran a spread-type offense, had a mobile QB, and some pretty good RB's. I think the comparison has some merit and this is our opportunity to make up for a poor showing in last year's bowl game.
 

I think most TCU fans are confident in our defense based on last year because offensively we lead the Big 12 in 3 and outs. Basically our defense was on the field several more play than any other team in the conf and we finished with a top defense. For example we had ONE 1st down vs Oklahoma last year in the first half and still only lost the game by 3pts. Alabama's D couldn't even pull that off regardless of what Saban says about their motivational level.
 

MNbornFrog said:
I think most TCU fans are confident in our defense based on last year because offensively we lead the Big 12 in 3 and outs. Basically our defense was on the field several more play than any other team in the conf and we finished with a top defense. For example we had ONE 1st down vs Oklahoma last year in the first half and still only lost the game by 3pts. Alabama's D couldn't even pull that off regardless of what Saban says about their motivational level.
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No way Big 12 defenses measure up to B1G teams like MSU. Just ask Oregon ;-)
 

I would have to disagree about Mich St. They have a good D but TCU has a better defense than Michigan St as we will prove Saturday. The Big 10 defenses pad their stats all year playing pedestrian offenses. The Big 10 is the last conf to offensively evolve and it the reason it will be left out of the college playoff. Whisky hung 55pts on everybody in the Big 10 until they played us in the Rose and struggled to get 20. It took Lavion Bell 100 carries to get 100yrds on us in the BWW Bowl and Cobb isn't better than him. Oregon walked all over Mich St in the 2nd half. The Big 12 is the best offensive conf in the country. The Frogs just happen to have the worst O in the conf the last 2 year in my opinion.
 

MNbornFrog said:
I would have to disagree about Mich St. They have a good D but TCU has a better defense than Michigan St as we will prove Saturday. The Big 10 defenses pad their stats all year playing pedestrian offenses. The Big 10 is the last conf to offensively evolve and it the reason it will be left out of the college playoff. Whisky hung 55pts on everybody in the Big 10 until they played us in the Rose and struggled to get 20. It took Lavion Bell 100 carries to get 100yrds on us in the BWW Bowl and Cobb isn't better than him. Oregon walked all over Mich St in the 2nd half. The Big 12 is the best offensive conf in the country. The Frogs just happen to have the worst O in the conf the last 2 year in my opinion.
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Didn't Wisconsin pound it down your throat that entire game and basically shoot themselves in the foot? Don't go tooting your horn when stats show B1G offenses have had success against you.

What does Oregon (who is neither TCU nor a Big 12 member) have to do with anything?

I'm confident that your stellar defense is great at playing against the Big 12 teams that fling the ball around but you are too small/weak to stop a Big Ten rushing offense. Wisconsin and MSU basically proved that and Wisconsin simply got in their own way by deciding to throw the ball even once. Minnesota will pound the ball and you won't be able to stop it.
 

MNbornFrog said:
I would have to disagree about Mich St. They have a good D but TCU has a better defense than Michigan St as we will prove Saturday. The Big 10 defenses pad their stats all year playing pedestrian offenses. The Big 10 is the last conf to offensively evolve and it the reason it will be left out of the college playoff. Whisky hung 55pts on everybody in the Big 10 until they played us in the Rose and struggled to get 20. It took Lavion Bell 100 carries to get 100yrds on us in the BWW Bowl and Cobb isn't better than him. Oregon walked all over Mich St in the 2nd half. The Big 12 is the best offensive conf in the country. The Frogs just happen to have the worst O in the conf the last 2 year in my opinion.
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I have to disagree with this one. I think Big 12 offensive stats may be "padded" somewhat by their own membership. If just about any of these teams played in a conference like, let's say, the SEC or PAC 12, they'd see a lot more single-digit offensive scores and would give up as much if not more points against most of these SEC and PAC 12 schools. The B1G has seen plenty of these trendy spread offensives over the years. Joe Tiller had some success at Purdue. But others not so much including a guy you might have heard about (the late, great, Jim Wacker). This is an over simplification but it has more to do with execution than what type of O or D you use.
 

MNbornFrog said:
I would have to disagree about Mich St. They have a good D but TCU has a better defense than Michigan St as we will prove Saturday. The Big 10 defenses pad their stats all year playing pedestrian offenses. The Big 10 is the last conf to offensively evolve and it the reason it will be left out of the college playoff. Whisky hung 55pts on everybody in the Big 10 until they played us in the Rose and struggled to get 20. It took Lavion Bell 100 carries to get 100yrds on us in the BWW Bowl and Cobb isn't better than him. Oregon walked all over Mich St in the 2nd half. The Big 12 is the best offensive conf in the country. The Frogs just happen to have the worst O in the conf the last 2 year in my opinion.
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As far as the defense is concerned, you won't be playing your 4-2-5 formation much. 4-5 yards per run is what we're comfortable with and it should get the game opened up for a few surprises. B1G is down, so this is a great opportunity for Minnesota to sneak out with a win. I see overconfidence all over the place (despite what Patterson & media are saying).
 

maroonedinCA said:
Didn't Wisconsin pound it down your throat that entire game and basically shoot themselves in the foot? Don't go tooting your horn when stats show B1G offenses have had success against you.

What does Oregon (who is neither TCU nor a Big 12 member) have to do with anything?

I'm confident that your stellar defense is great at playing against the Big 12 teams that fling the ball around but you are too small/weak to stop a Big Ten rushing offense. Wisconsin and MSU basically proved that and Wisconsin simply got in their own way by deciding to throw the ball even once. Minnesota will pound the ball and you won't be able to stop it.
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Our defensive line is significantly bigger than Michigan State's. Do they play the Big 10 power rushing offenses well?
 

GoFrogs said:
Our defensive line is significantly bigger than Michigan State's. Do they play the Big 10 power rushing offenses well?
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significantly?

here are the starting defensive lines height and weights, which one appears 'significantly larger' than the other?


6/4 250
6/1 305
6/2 305
6/3 253

6/5 256
6/6 285
6/4 309
6/3 251

Here is the gophers starting defensive line:
6/6 255
6/5 290
6/0 291
6/5 251
 

MNbornFrog said:
I would have to disagree about Mich St. They have a good D but TCU has a better defense than Michigan St as we will prove Saturday. The Big 10 defenses pad their stats all year playing pedestrian offenses. The Big 10 is the last conf to offensively evolve and it the reason it will be left out of the college playoff. Whisky hung 55pts on everybody in the Big 10 until they played us in the Rose and struggled to get 20. It took Lavion Bell 100 carries to get 100yrds on us in the BWW Bowl and Cobb isn't better than him. Oregon walked all over Mich St in the 2nd half. The Big 12 is the best offensive conf in the country. The Frogs just happen to have the worst O in the conf the last 2 year in my opinion.
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This whole post is hilarious.
 

Nate said:
significantly?

here are the starting defensive lines height and weights, which one appears 'significantly larger' than the other?


6/4 250
6/1 305
6/2 305
6/3 253

6/5 256
6/6 285
6/4 309
6/3 251

Here is the gophers starting defensive line:
6/6 255
6/5 290
6/0 291
6/5 251
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Group 1 is 1.08% Heavier than Group 2 (on average)
Group 2 is 1.27% Heavier than Group 3 (on average)
Group 1 is 2.34% Heavier than Group 3 (on average)
 


Dear TCU, you will either see the weakest passing attack you have ever seen or the greatest offensive deception since Operation Fortitude had Patton hitting France at Calais on June 6th 1944.
odd, Leidner is a bit like Patton...can't hit 'em. dropsmic.
 

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