Gophers open as 8 point underdogs at TCU

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just locked in on Bovada at +14. 50 "units".
this game will also be big on my over 6.5 season wins bet.
Go Gophs!
 


BoneLakeMafia said:
just locked in on Bovada at +14. 50 "units".
this game will also be big on my over 6.5 season wins bet.
Go Gophs!
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Was going to do the same but I'm waiting for the points scored to come out first to see if I want to parlay them together
 

+400 on the straight bet is insane. I don't get it. I'm fairly confident that we win this game, but I seem to be the only one. Could I be.... No.
 

Spoofin said:
+400 on the straight bet is insane. I don't get it. I'm fairly confident that we win this game, but I seem to be the only one. Could I be.... No.
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well I don't think there will be many takers on a +400. I would expect it to be much higher if the spread is staying at 14. normally I'd expect 10 points to be around a +400 or so. So if you feel confident, I'd wait and expect to see the money line swell.
 


I think the Gophers are being downgraded a little based on the national point of view of the B1G. In the 'predict the score' thread, I have the Gophers losing by more than 14, but I would definitely take us +14. Early season Gopher games are some of the best ones to bet overall, imo. I don't bet on sports anymore, but I used to make a decent amount of money in the Gophers' non-conference schedule because Vegas really didn't seem to have a great handle on the team until the conference season began.
 

GopherHomer said:
I think the Gophers are being downgraded a little based on the national point of view of the B1G. In the 'predict the score' thread, I have the Gophers losing by more than 14, but I would definitely take us +14. Early season Gopher games are some of the best ones to bet overall, imo. I don't bet on sports anymore, but I used to make a decent amount of money in the Gophers' non-conference schedule because Vegas really didn't seem to have a great handle on the team until the conference season began.
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I don't think they generally are (at least not for betting on the Gophs) under Kill. We have not done well in early season games against major conference competition. In his three completed seasons, we are a combined 1-8 in our first 3 Big Ten games of the year (we have lost our first two all three years, last year we got number 3 for the first time). First year, we lost our only major out of conference game to a Pac-10 opponent in our opener, second year we beat a Big East team in our first major conference opponent, and third year we didn't play one. For whatever reason, we seem to look a little flat when we first see the big boys, especially the last two seasons. Hopefully that turns around here, but I am skeptical about our offense's ability to move the ball. This could be a situation where we lose to the spread despite not giving up a lot of points (21-3 or 24-7 or something like that). I don't think we can count on the special team TDs and bad turnovers that we got from EIU and MTSU.
 

The Gophers are 10-5 against the spread their last 15 games. That would suggest Vegas doesn't give us quite enough credit.
 

Gopher07 said:
BTN predicts:

24-21, TCU
34-17, TCU
35-24, TCU
17-14, TCU

Dinardo, always picks against the Gophers, that makes this a lock win for the Gophers. Gerry Dinado, I like it when he picks against the Gophers because that usually bodes well for us. The line is to high, this is easy money for Gopher fans. David Cobb being one of the best backs in the conference even country, with our O-line alone means the line is way to high. He is no secret to TCU, they understand what a good back he really is after the last two games. TCU can't beat us if we hog the ball and pound the rock. #27 DC is not going back to Texas without showing out and showing up. This is a mans game, and mark my words David Cobb is going to be the Man.
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Every time i think it's easy money, I'm reminded why Vegas makes money.
 

Nate said:
Every time i think it's easy money, I'm reminded why Vegas makes money.
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Juice. They scrape a little off the top of every single one of the hundreds of millions of bets made each week.
 

FWIW Corey Chavous, who is constantly breaking down college game film, was on KFAN this morning and says TCU is very underwhelming. He expects the Gophers to win.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
FWIW Corey Chavous, who is constantly breaking down college game film, was on KFAN this morning and says TCU is very underwhelming. He expects the Gophers to win.
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He should read GH. The teams 'biggest fans' would set him straight.
 




GoFrog, how would you compare your team this year to last year's?
 

I'm going long on this one. It's an early Christmas gift. While I have respect for Patterson and his string of good to great defenses they don't necessarily match up well with us. If we can keep it close and grind it into the 4th quarter I really like our chances of not only beating the spread but straight up. Sawvel and his boys are going to be jacked for this challenge.

If their team is even close to delusional as their fans (check out their boards) this bodes well. They are as comically optimistic as gopher fans are pessimistic.

They lose some important cogs on D, don't have a known-quality QB, and are installing a new offense. They are light up the middle once the starters tire out. I suspect a bottom-feeder offense from 2013 will not sprout wings overnight with a too-many-cooks-in-the-kitchen coordinatorship. This smacks of Michigan-level panic.

We faced defenses that match up better last year in wisconsin, MSU, Iowa. Our guys will not be intimidated.

The weather will be favorable for us. This was a big concern of mine.

This will be a great challenge, no doubt. I can easily see us losing this game. It will come down to coaching, motivation level, execution and efficiency on offense, and whether their D can indeed hold up for 4 quarters (and vice versa with our youngsters). Most excited I've been for a game in quite awhile. Lots of story lines here.
 


vagopher said:
GoFrog, how would you compare your team this year to last year's?
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By height.


OK, seriously, it's too early to say. On defense, we've lost the best corner in America (my opinion) which will obviously hurt. But we should still be good. GMFP always seems to find a way on D. On offense, I like the up tempo. If it takes some of the burden off our O line, we'll be better. They struggled last year, and everything else suffered as a result. We've only seen it at game speed once, though. It didn't look exceptionally fast in person, but the box score said they ran 96 plays, which is absurdly high for us.

If I were going to bet this game (I'm not...I never bet games that I intend to watch with my wife, and I haven't researched you guys much at all) I'd probably take the points. I did drop $25 at Paris Casino in June on a TCU natty at 400-1. So, as my name says, Go Frogs!
 

Both the B1G and Big XII blogs pick TCU 17-13, unanimously:

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/107131/big-ten-predictions-week-3-4
TCU over Minnesota, 17-13: Another low-scoring, defensive slog; the Gophers' lack of a passing attack (especially with gimpy QB Mitch Leidner) dooms them.
http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/89087/big-12-week-3-predictions
TCU over Minnesota 17-13: A close game finally goes the Horned Frogs' way. Minnesota's uncertain QB situation is the difference-maker, and TCU's underappreciated defense steps up.
 

Line sitting now at 13.5-14 w/ o/u of 47.5-48. Not much movement with Leidner's upgrade in status
 

GoFrogs said:
By height.


OK, seriously, it's too early to say. On defense, we've lost the best corner in America (my opinion) which will obviously hurt. But we should still be good. GMFP always seems to find a way on D. On offense, I like the up tempo. If it takes some of the burden off our O line, we'll be better. They struggled last year, and everything else suffered as a result. We've only seen it at game speed once, though. It didn't look exceptionally fast in person, but the box score said they ran 96 plays, which is absurdly high for us.

If I were going to bet this game (I'm not...I never bet games that I intend to watch with my wife, and I haven't researched you guys much at all) I'd probably take the points. I did drop $25 at Paris Casino in June on a TCU natty at 400-1. So, as my name says, Go Frogs!
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Thanks. I think overall we have a better team this year than last, but we have been inconsistent in our first two games and have been hurt by injuries. Much will depend on whether we can supplement a strong running game with a few effective pass plays. That has been our Achilles Heel. I think we're likely to beat the point spread, but whether we can win remains to be seen. It should be a good game. Go Gophers!
 


vagopher said:
Thanks. I think overall we have a better team this year than last, but we have been inconsistent in our first two games and have been hurt by injuries. Much will depend on whether we can supplement a strong running game with a few effective pass plays. That has been our Achilles Heel. I think we're likely to beat the point spread, but whether we can win remains to be seen. It should be a good game. Go Gophers!
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You guys running Cobb out of two tight end power sets doesn't scare me. Not that he can't get yards that way, but we're better prepared for it than you think.

However, you guys taking those same two tight end sets and running play-action pass to a tight end who's quietly drifted behind a safety, or to a fullback who everybody forgot about while biting on the fake to Cobb...those thoughts keeps me up at night. We are a hyper-aggressive defense and, as a result, are usually more susceptible to misdirection. We're generally faster, though, which is what we rely on to recover.

Agree it should be a good game. Safe travels if you're headed this way.
 

Update from post 32.

4:00 PMMINNESOTA
TCU-15.5-14.5-15-15-15
O/U:48.5494949

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Hey Gophers, I'm originally from Apple Valley moved to Texas and attended TCU. I always cheer for The Gophs since many in my family are alum.

In response to the questions how are we better than last years team. I think mentally we are much improved. I felt like we had a toxic locker room, players quitting or protesting practice. No respect for the offensive staff. I think I really effected us on the field. We should be an 8 win team in 2014 and take most teams down to the wire in games we lose. Our QB Boykin dedicated the offseason to really becoming a better QB. Our O line is still a work in progress and is the weak link but much improved over last year. I have attached a Phil Steel article than pretty much sums up our fans thoughts on why we should be taken seriously in 2014. Boykin is the one surprise from fall camp. Good luck this weekend guys and I'll be pulling for you in the weeks moving forward.
Phill Steele 2014 most improved team.
http://m.espn.go.com/ncf/story?storyId=11104205&src=desktop
 


Regarding the ESPN projections: if the Gophs hold TCU to 17 points, the TCU fans will be in panic/meltdown mode, win or lose the game. If an up-tempo/spread offense only score 17 points, then their defense is spending a whole lot of time on the field and they're losing TOP in a very lopsided fashion. I don't think TCU can win this game if they score fewer than 21 points.
 


GoFrogs said:
You guys running Cobb out of two tight end power sets doesn't scare me. Not that he can't get yards that way, but we're better prepared for it than you think.

However, you guys taking those same two tight end sets and running play-action pass to a tight end who's quietly drifted behind a safety, or to a fullback who everybody forgot about while biting on the fake to Cobb...those thoughts keeps me up at night. We are a hyper-aggressive defense and, as a result, are usually more susceptible to misdirection. We're generally faster, though, which is what we rely on to recover.

Agree it should be a good game. Safe travels if you're headed this way.
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Thanks again. I appreciate your insights.
 

Stopped over to check the projections on the frogs board. The majority seem to think that this should be a two to three touchdown win. Odd considering that they were a four win team last year.
 

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