While I don't feel particularly great about the coach right now, he should get another season. Before the season started, I posted here that, with this roster and schedule, the team should finish at least 17-14 in the regular season but 18-13 would be better and still a fair target. The team met my preseason expected ceiling in so I think it made adequate progress. I'm not going to revise my expected target because they should have finished better when looking at where they were 4 or 5 games ago.
Some of you have tried to maintain that no coach who didn't do better than this by year 3 would get a fourth season anywhere else. I've proven here multiple times that claim is false. Two current Big Ten coaches (Hoiberg and Pikiell) had only losing seasons in their first three years. A former, but recent, Penn State coach (Pat Chambers) didn't have a winning season until his fourth year and he was there nine years. Some of you will reply "But, we're a better program that Nebraska, Rutgers, and Penn State!" Well, recent history doesn't support that claim either. A few years ago, there was a anonymous survey of Big Ten coaches posted here. They rated Minnesota as one of the two or three worst jobs in the conference.
I don't expect the team to make the NIT at this point. If that's the case, Johnson needs to do the following:
1) Do whatever it takes to make sure that the five starters return.
2) Everyone else is expendable. I don't expect Fox to return based on what he has said in recent interviews. Recruit the portal hard and don't stop until you get at least a few honestly good players that have the potential to play 20+ minutes in a conference game if they need to. No scholarships to walk ons or projects (other than the freshmen recruits). No scholarships for imagined limited niche players like Wilson. He absolutely cannot have so many performance minutes riding on the backs of his top players again. Nobody's back is that strong. This is not the first year that he's tried this and failed!