Do the Goph's have 8 wins without DeAndre Mathieu

[dpodoll68]

Is it normal or abnormal to have as many posters as we have who seem to hate the program and the coach as much as some do here?

Is it normal or abnormal to have as many posters as we have who spend an inordinate amount of time fixating on previous coaches instead of focusing on the current and future coaches and players?

 

[jaymil]

Is it normal or abnormal to have as many posters as we have who spend an inordinate amount of time fixating on previous coaches instead of focusing on the current and future coaches and players?

I think it's pretty normal after a coaching change for fans to compare the new coach to the old coach. There are times when the bashing of Tubby isn't warranted though, like bringing him up randomly in a thread that has nothing to do with coaching which I see every once in a while.

 

[howieramone]

Is it normal or abnormal to have as many posters as we have who spend an inordinate amount of time fixating on previous coaches instead of focusing on the current and future coaches and players?

+1

 

[The Brain Trust]

Is it normal or abnormal to have as many posters as we have who spend an inordinate amount of time fixating on previous coaches instead of focusing on the current and future coaches and players?

Pretty normal for folks with clinically valid mental health issues.

 

[Golden_Sloth]

ORtg eFG% Ast % TO %
Welch 112.9 56.7% 28.9% 21.0%
Mathieu 99.0 49.5% 26.8% 24.5%

Wow, looks like Welch >>>>Draymond Green in 2011-12. Who was the Big 10 player of the year that year? Must have been Welch.

ORtg eFG% Ast % TO %
Welch 112.9 56.7% 28.9% 21.0%
Green 109.6 50.4% 26.0% 16.8%

 

[dtrain19]

Welch or Lil Dre better junior year? My humble opinion i take Lil Dre. That being said i just really hope that Lil Dre's SENIOR season is waaaaaaaaaayy better than Welch's. Go Gophers!

 

[underground629]

Nicely done. GW continues to show why reliance on "advanced stats" is a waste of time. Looking at measures of efficiency mean very little without thinking critically. See Tyson Chandler as a reference.

Wow, looks like Welch >>>>Draymond Green in 2011-12. Who was the Big 10 player of the year that year? Must have been Welch.

ORtg eFG% Ast % TO %
Welch 112.9 56.7% 28.9% 21.0%
Green 109.6 50.4% 26.0% 16.8%

 

[bemidjigopher]

Nicely done. GW continues to show why reliance on "advanced stats" is a waste of time. Looking at measures of efficiency mean very little without thinking critically. See Tyson Chandler as a reference.

That's why firing Lionel Hollins will comeback to bite Memphis and why Oakland won't win a world series with Billy Beane

 

[GreasyGopher]

Quick question. We have 6 wins. Where do you get 8?

I believe he is talking total wins. Another poster brought up Big Ten wins.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Wow, looks like Welch >>>>Draymond Green in 2011-12. Who was the Big 10 player of the year that year? Must have been Welch.

ORtg eFG% Ast % TO %
Welch 112.9 56.7% 28.9% 21.0%
Green 109.6 50.4% 26.0% 16.8%

Quote the rest of the article. It compared their usage, rebounding, blocks, steals, etc. All favor Welch.

Green had an unreal DR% and strong blk% and steal % for one of the nation's top defenses, plus a very high usage -- all better than Welch. But Welch's were all better than Mathieu's.

As detailed above, Welch shot very well and also had a better assist rate and turnover rate as compared to what Mathieu has done so far this season. When we look to other parts of their games the differences aren’t as significant as their respective Offensive Ratings, but again all favor Welch:

OR% DR% Stl % Blk %
Welch 3.9% 9.9% 2.6% 0.5%
Mathieu 2.5% 9.1% 2.3% 0.3%

Even some of overall value measurements – most of which we pay little attention to – show a strong edge to Welch. For example, Welch’s win shares per 40 minutes are nearly double Mathieu’s in Big Ten games.

Green - 8.1%, 28.5%!!!!, 2.7%, 3.4%. Win shares/40 = 60% higher than Welch (who was almost double Mathieu).

 

[GopherJake]

I'd choose Mathieu in the shuttle run. I'd choose Welch in the slowest defender contest.

 

[cncmin]

I'd choose Mathieu in the shuttle run. I'd choose Welch in the slowest defender contest.

You have to be able to defend someone. Too many Gophers past and present have a hard time doing that.

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

If Tubby were still the coach, we wouldn't have Mathieu, Malik, McNeil, or King. Instead we'd have Ellis, Foster, and some other spring recruits. Imagine how ugly that team would look.

I don't think the team would be significantly better or worse this year. Dre Hollins would be just fine at PG, as he was last year and Austin Hollins would be playing his natural position where he was a very good player. They were set to become one of the top backcourts in the B1G and instead have taken a back seat under Pitino as their roles have diminished. This was supposed to be Dre's team & now it's Mathieu & Malik's. Tubby would have been looking for a PF to bring in & there's no reason to think Joey King wouldn't have been that guy, plus we'd have Foster as well. I'd call it a wash. My real concern would be back-up PG, where we could well be watching Mav play extended minutes backing up Dre if Tubby was still here.

 

[Bad Gopher]

I don't think the team would be significantly better or worse this year. Dre Hollins would be just fine at PG, as he was last year and Austin Hollins would be playing his natural position where he was a very good player. They were set to become one of the top backcourts in the B1G and instead have taken a back seat under Pitino as their roles have diminished. This was supposed to be Dre's team & now it's Mathieu & Malik's. Tubby would have been looking for a PF to bring in & there's no reason to think Joey King wouldn't have been that guy, plus we'd have Foster as well. I'd call it a wash. My real concern would be back-up PG, where we could well be watching Mav play extended minutes backing up Dre if Tubby was still here.

If I'm not mistaken, Dre has a higher scoring average this year than he did last year. It's still his team and would be more so had he not been injured.

 

[MadtownGopher]

I don't think the team would be significantly better or worse this year. Dre Hollins would be just fine at PG, as he was last year and Austin Hollins would be playing his natural position where he was a very good player. They were set to become one of the top backcourts in the B1G and instead have taken a back seat under Pitino as their roles have diminished. This was supposed to be Dre's team & now it's Mathieu & Malik's. Tubby would have been looking for a PF to bring in & there's no reason to think Joey King wouldn't have been that guy, plus we'd have Foster as well. I'd call it a wash. My real concern would be back-up PG, where we could well be watching Mav play extended minutes backing up Dre if Tubby was still here.

Is this for real? Are you Parski, or one of the other Tubby fans? There's no way this team is better without Mathieu. Dre is not a PG. Austin wouldn't be a top SG. Mav would be averaging 10-15 min a game (or more) and would have started the games Dre missed. Mo would still be 300+. We wouldn't have a bench shooter like Malik. It would be ugly.

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[howieramone]

I don't think the team would be significantly better or worse this year. Dre Hollins would be just fine at PG, as he was last year and Austin Hollins would be playing his natural position where he was a very good player. They were set to become one of the top backcourts in the B1G and instead have taken a back seat under Pitino as their roles have diminished. This was supposed to be Dre's team & now it's Mathieu & Malik's. Tubby would have been looking for a PF to bring in & there's no reason to think Joey King wouldn't have been that guy, plus we'd have Foster as well. I'd call it a wash. My real concern would be back-up PG, where we could well be watching Mav play extended minutes backing up Dre if Tubby was still here.

I agree, results would have been roughly the same. I recall Ellis mentioning he was working on his PG skills, and I assume he would have filled in the few minutes Dre didn't play.

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

If I'm not mistaken, Dre has a higher scoring average this year than he did last year. It's still his team and would be more so had he not been injured.

I'm aware his scoring average is about the same (with 4 OT's to pad the stats) & think it's misleading. He was an underclassman & his scoring average progressed as the season went on. i.e. His 1st 5 games as a true Soph he averaged 9.5ppg in non-conference. By the end of the season, when we were playing much better teams overall, on a much bigger stage, he averaged 21ppg & was now clearly "the man" coming into this season with Trevor/Rodney departing. I was expecting much more than another 14-15ppg average, I was thinking closer to 20ppg average. Now, it appears to be Mathieu/Malik's team & Dre's become a 2nd or 3rd option on a good, but not great team. My .02

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

Is this for real? Are you Parski, or one of the other Tubby fans? There's no way this team is better without Mathieu. Dre is not a PG. Austin wouldn't be a top SG. Mav would be averaging 10-15 min a game (or more) and would have started the games Dre missed. Mo would still be 300+. We wouldn't have a bench shooter like Malik. It would be ugly.

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This is absolutely for real. I'm not saying the team is better without Mathieu, but I don't see much of a drop off without him either. I think Tubby would have gotten about the same results (minus the excitement & belief in a brighter tomorrow).

Dre's not a bad PG. He played very well last year & would be one of the top PG's in the B1G if he was playing there exclusively this year. The problem was never Dre at PG, the problem was that no one else could handle the ball & give him a breather. Any foul trouble, winding or injury and we were screwed. Pitino's offense relies on several ball handlers instead of one & Mathieu has flat out been a great find.

Austin will never be a 20ppg guy, but he would absolutely be playing better if Tubby was still here. Not because Tubby's a genius coach, but because he wouldn't be playing SF & guarding guys that's are 6'7" and outweigh him by 30lbs. He went from being one of the premier defenders in the B1G to an after thought.

Mo might not be in as good of shape, but he would still be in much better shape than last year. Remember Mo wasn't lazy, he was injured. The surgeons described his knee injury as one of the most severe they had ever seen. This was not a standard ACL reconstruction. It was so bad in fact that he couldn't even walk on a treadmill for almost a year. He's a guy who will always have to watch his weight, but with that year out of commission be ballooned up big time. He shed something like 35 pounds from the beginning of last season to the end of the season & his conditioning was noticeably improved. There's no reason to think that would have just stopped. Maybe he would have only dropped another 30-35 pounds over the summer instead of 50, but it's not like Mo wasn't trying until Pitino got here.

I'm not a huge Malik Smith fan. I like that he can shoot when he's hot, but I wish Pitino would put a leash on him. He's cost us with his preposterous shot selection & momentum killing heaves just as much as he's helped us. Factor in that his defense isn't very good, his handle is weak and I'm excited to see McNeil or someone step into his role next year.

What I can't get away from is that Mav would almost certainly have been playing behind Dre. When Dre injured his ankle this year, that would have all but guaranteed we lost to Wisconsin.

 

[MadtownGopher]

Pitino talks about where team would be without Mathieu.

http://www.tout.com/m/totn0e

 

[ethomasp31]

I actually agree with this as well. Our record would be about the same...the only difference is that the situation would be a lot more toxic. If we were 6-7 with Tubby....there would have been riots in DinkyTown. Tubby has taken a team that won 3 games in the Big 12 last year and made them pretty competitive in a conference that is arguably better than the B1G....especially with the McGray injury and all the injuries at MSU. Plus Tubby lost Petteway who ended up transferring to Nebraska after his freshman year at Texas Tech. The way some people talk it amazing me we are only 6-7 in the conference. We are better than I thought we would be....especially after when we were down 10 in the second half to Chaminade. Pitino has done well so far, but the biggest thing I think he has done so far is that he has brought a positive presence to the U.....and brought Mathieu in.

 

[Moonlight]

CRG, The biggest difference is the way this team approaches the game, and that includes Drizzy.
For instance:
There was a game plan for the NW game. Run, press, wear down their team and short bench. Trouble was had in the execution - 17 turnovers. But if you look at the last 9 minutes of the game, it is clear that the coach's game plan worked. Crawford played 40 minutes, fouled out and shot 1-15. Austin and McNeil played great defense on him, and were kept fresh.

If you haven't been at the games, it may not be as apparent that there is a completely different energy to the team. Maybe our win loss/record wouldn't be so significantly different, but the teams would be night and day.

 

[Dr.Don]

CRG, The biggest difference is the way this team approaches the game, and that includes Drizzy.
For instance:
There was a game plan for the NW game. Run, press, wear down their team and short bench. Trouble was had in the execution - 17 turnovers. But if you look at the last 9 minutes of the game, it is clear that the coach's game plan worked. Crawford played 40 minutes, fouled out and shot 1-15. Austin and McNeil played great defense on him, and were kept fresh.

If you haven't been at the games, it may not be as apparent that there is a completely different energy to the team. Maybe our win loss/record wouldn't be so significantly different, but the teams would be night and day.

Finally, moonlight, someone says something on GopherHole that makes sense. Thank you.

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

CRG, The biggest difference is the way this team approaches the game, and that includes Drizzy.
For instance:
There was a game plan for the NW game. Run, press, wear down their team and short bench. Trouble was had in the execution - 17 turnovers. But if you look at the last 9 minutes of the game, it is clear that the coach's game plan worked. Crawford played 40 minutes, fouled out and shot 1-15. Austin and McNeil played great defense on him, and were kept fresh.

If you haven't been at the games, it may not be as apparent that there is a completely different energy to the team. Maybe our win loss/record wouldn't be so significantly different, but the teams would be night and day.

Precisely my point.

 

[Moonlight]

Precisely my point.

(minus the excitement & belief in a brighter tomorrow).

Yes, I know thats your point. The excitement is not just because of change. The energy, attention, focus and presence that Pitino brings affects the way his team plays.

AND we haven't had a player this exciting and fun to watch since Vincent Grier AND you have to love the fact that this kid, who had to walk on his first year to play D1 and then wasn't offered a scholarship, is taking it to the likes of Ferrell and Craft.
THAT is fun!

 

[underground629]

Is this a joke?

QUOTE=Costa Rican Gopher;851133]This was supposed to be Dre's team & now it's Mathieu & Malik's. [/QUOTE]

 

[underground629]

You were expecting him to easily be the BT scoring leader?

It's absolutely laughable that you're claiming this is Malik's team in any way and pretending like he's ahead of Andre. That's true in a grand total of zero ways. The only games he started were when Andre was hurt. Andre has the longest leash of anyone on the team. He's a captain, he's leading the team in scoring and shots taken, and he's leading in minutes even though he played like 20 seconds in one game and has been hurt for other games. Malik has played 23 minutes the last two games, but yet it's still his team. Wow.

I'm aware his scoring average is about the same (with 4 OT's to pad the stats) & think it's misleading. He was an underclassman & his scoring average progressed as the season went on. i.e. His 1st 5 games as a true Soph he averaged 9.5ppg in non-conference. By the end of the season, when we were playing much better teams overall, on a much bigger stage, he averaged 21ppg & was now clearly "the man" coming into this season with Trevor/Rodney departing. I was expecting much more than another 14-15ppg average, I was thinking closer to 20ppg average. Now, it appears to be Mathieu/Malik's team & Dre's become a 2nd or 3rd option on a good, but not great team. My .02

 

[dpodoll68]

Interesting how "Dre's not a PG" when he was 3rd Team All-Big Ten as a PG and the starting PG on the first Minnesota team to win a Tournament game in 23 years.

 

[gregbrady]

Cool stats bro. Reason why these are fun stats to cherry pick.
1. Welch took 7 shots a game, 3 from 3. Welch shot 43% from 3 as we all know. but also as we all know, he got most of these looks WIDE OPEN due to guys like Williams, Mbakwe (in his few games), Sampson, and later in the season Dre drawing the primary defensive attention. When you're the tertiary or quarternary offensive option, you are open more often from deep. Kudos for him in hitting those shots, but to reference, Austin Hollins was a 37% 3Pt shooter from distance that year compared to 30% this year. Being open helps.

2. Who on this team do you have to feed the ball at the rim on this team? Welch had Mbakwe (again limited), Williams, and Sampson to feed the ball in the post to as well as solid shooters that season at least, probably due to the higher attention necessary down low, in Dre, Austin, and Armelin. Those inflate assist numbers when you're the guy with the ball in your hands. Just ask the guy from Davidson who got to fire the ball to an open Curry all year (not comparing the 2 directly, but open shooters sure as hell help).

3. Welch wasn't asked to create his own shot. Welch took 4 shots inside the arc/game that season. Little Dre is asked to penetrate and kick and score himself. He is the focus of our offense, much of which is in the paint, as is evidenced by his 8.5 shots/game with only 1 from deep. Those differences in what is asked of the player is going to lead to drastically different numbers in terms of "efficiency". Also movement in the paint leads to more turnovers. how many bounce passes in the paint have gone off our guys hands and out of bounds to count as TO's on Dre? Or guys not sealing correctly on post entries? good plenty including several last night. you don't see stuff like that when you are perimeter passing to 3 point shooters.

Trust your eyes. Dre is a "better" player for us in terms of that he is the guy making this team go. With Welch that season, we didn't lose anything going to different guys in his spot. Look at what happened when we switched to letting Dre Hollins handle the ball more and more.

I'm pretty sure these words have never been used here before and I for one, had to google them since my Catholic upbringing did not include Latin. Impressive!

 

[gregbrady]

I'm pretty sure these words have never been used here before and I for one, had to google them since my Catholic upbringing did not include Latin. Impressive!

Doh, I meant to highlight Tertiary & Quarternary but I hit the Italics!

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

Yes, I know thats your point. The excitement is not just because of change. The energy, attention, focus and presence that Pitino brings affects the way his team plays.

AND we haven't had a player this exciting and fun to watch since Vincent Grier AND you have to love the fact that this kid, who had to walk on his first year to play D1 and then wasn't offered a scholarship, is taking it to the likes of Ferrell and Craft.
THAT is fun!

The future is bright. The team is fun to watch. Dre Mathieu is fun to watch. Exciting times. As to the question posed of how bad we would be this year without Mathieu? I don't think we would be significantly worse in terms of W's & L's if Tubby was still here using his system. I expect Pitino to step it up next year and the year after as he brings in his guys, but right now this is about what I expected from Tubby's squad in terms of W' & L's.