CFP Rankings: OSU 1, WI 8, PSU 10, Mich 14, Iowa 16, Minnesota 18

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Some guy said:
forsure
The committee thinks Minnesota is 18 and thinks Wisconsin is 8 and Michigan is 14.

even though Michigan essentially has the same resume.
Michigan beat an okay Michigan team and got destroyed by Ohio state.

I think Minnesota could do the same. The committee doesn’t.
Eye test
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Michigan also beat Notre Dame.
 

Some guy said:
No idea what would happen.
Neither does the committee.

Good thing the committee doesn’t have to use objective criteria and can just make stuff up.

Minnesota? Only one quality win and 2 losses? Sounds like 18 Strength of schedule = 27
Iowa? Only one quality win and 3 losses? Sounds like 16 Strength of schedule = 12
Michigan? Only 2 quality wins and 3 losses? Sounds like 14 Strength of schedule = 3
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Strength of schedule seems like pretty objective criteria, especially when combined with W-L records.
 

Some guy said:
Not the committees eye test apparently.
They have no accountability and there is no objective criteria.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist I just think they’re idiots who value the wrong things.
Personally I value the results of games more than weighted results of hypothetical games based on SOS metrics.
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So App State should be #5 or so, right? We don’t know for sure that they’d lose to Ohio State or Penn State and they’re 11-1.
 

Why is Iowa ahead of Minnesota? Because Iowa won the head to head? Minnesota had the better record, the same amount of ranked wins, a better win, and was overall much more dominant in conference play.

Why is Minnesota ranked so far behind Penn State? Head to head matters, right? Okay okay, Penn State did have a second ranked victory, but is that enough to justify an 8 spot advantage?

Oh of course - I forgot the almighty "good loss" category!!!

Penn State
Overall Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 7-2
Record v. Top 10: 0-1
Record v. Top 25: 2-2
Head To Head Record Against Other Two Teams: 1-1
14+ Points Victories - Overall: 6
14+ Points Victories - Conference: 4
14+ Points Losses: 0
Unranked Losses: None

Minnesota
Overall Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 7-2
Record v. Top 10: 1-1
Record v. Top 25: 1-2
Head To Head Record Against Other Two Teams: 1-1
14+ Points Victories - Overall: 5
14+ Points Victories - Conference: 5
14+ Points Losses: 1
Unranked Losses: None

Iowa
Overall Record: 9-3
Conference Record: 6-3
Record v. Top 10: 0-2
Record v. Top 25: 1-3
Head To Head Record Against Other Two Teams: 1-1
14+ Points Victories - Overall: 4
14+ Points Victories - Conference: 1
14+ Points Losses: 0
Unranked Losses: None

Edited for typo*
 
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RickDornsby said:
Michigan also beat Notre Dame.
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Notre Dame has no business being ranked where they are. Their two best wins are teams the committee is keeping in the bottom of the Top 25 to justify their current ranking.
 


TAW said:
Strength of schedule seems like pretty objective criteria, especially when combined with W-L records.
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Illinois must have been SO bad that a win over them hurts SOS and a loss to them actually increases SOS. Seems pretty objective criteria when combined with w-l records.
 

What the hell happened to quality losses?? I thought those matter. I say that with huge sarcasm, but it appears to actually be true when they talk about it on tv. We lose to #20 Iowa by 4 points in Kinnick in November, and we lose to the #12 Wisconsin (only 4 spots behind us). Wisconsin loses to 6-6 unranked Illinois, who we beat handily. Iowa loses 3 games, one of which is to Penn State at home. We beat Penn State at home. This shit makes no sense. It really doesn’t. People can say “this is what you get when you don’t take care of business”. Yeah okay, well I can agree we should we should have beaten Iowa. You can say we should have beaten Wisconsin. But neither of those games are just “gimmies”, not even close. Not even if you replace us in the scenario with a team like Bama. Wisconsin and Iowa are not games you should win to prove you’re good. I’d say if we had beaten Wisconsin and Iowa on top of Penn State, we should be in the top 4. Losing to them should not drop us 10 spots to #18. Does anyone actually believe we’re only the #18 best team in the country? I think we should have dropped to #15 minimum.
 


Ranked Teams that have a Top 10 Win:

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
18. Minnesota (10-2)
22. USC (8-4)

Minnesota has the 6th best win in the country among teams currently ranked.

Criticizing the lack of a second ranked win is certainly valid, but not all Top 25 wins are equal and this needs to be factored-in.

Minnesota has a better win than 9 teams with 2+ losses ranked ahead.
 



imthewalrus said:
Illinois must have been SO bad that a win over them hurts SOS and a loss to them actually increases SOS. Seems pretty objective criteria when combined with w-l records.
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Come on, I know you aren't that stupid, although that is a subjective opinion.
 

RickDornsby said:
We are also one iffy pass interference call against Penn State from having our best win be over Georgia Southern.

I don’t understand the complaining. Iowa, Wisconsin, PSU all played 4 or 5 ranked/tough games, we played 3. We did fine in winning 1 but having an extra loss is expected for Iowa and Michigan.
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And PSU is only one legit delay of game penalty away from having 7 less points.
 

CFP rankings are extremely biased. Have you just noticed this because this is the first time the Gophers have been involved?
 
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Guys...we still have 1 more ranking cycle...Gophers could be ranked #20 or lower after Championship week...with this CFP committee that could be a very real possibility.
 



Usually I hate all the whining about anti-Minnesota bias. It makes us sound like a bunch of losers, but in this case I agree. In a vacuum, the number 18 seems somewhat harsh. When looking at the resumes of some of the teams ranked ahead of us, it is ridiculous!

I don't particularly want to play Georgia or Alabama. There's plenty of tape out there of how to beat us, and I'm afraid several teams with similar records could stomp us pretty bad. I'll be satisfied with getting a lower bowl game and then blowing out a poorer team with a better perceived name than us. It sure would be fun to beat Alabama again though. Once we get rolling, we're awfully tough to beat.
 


Alabama doesn't have a single top 25 win and has the same record as us but they're significantly ahead of us. I know their losses are a bit better and their wins against mediocre to bad teams are better but why should that come before beating good teams? They beat up on teams they should have beat up on and lost their 2 hard games.

I think if we were named Alabama and they were named Minnesota we'd be around 12 and they'd be around 18.
 

I would hope the rankings help people realize that Minnesota didn't accomplish some of the subjective things many have posted that they did this year. They didn't "change the perception of Minnesota football" for example an there definitely is some "same old Gophers" still there. Everyone was justifiably ecstatic over the win against Penn State, but the quality of play from the team drastically diminished after that high point. It's clear that the committee, fair or not, views the Penn State win as a fluke and the Wisconsin performance as the "real Minnesota". If the University can finally get the message that losing to rivals is an embarrassment and everything possible needs to be done to change it, then the committee did Minnesota a favor by their ranking which really doesn't have a justification in fact/logic and only in perception. Losses have consequences and every Minnesota fan should have expected a harsh drop after losing the way the Gophers did on Saturday. Top 10 teams don't lose at home in that manner with everything on the line. There was so much on the line on Saturday, including national perception of where this program really was and it looked like a program that simply got a fluke win and played an easy schedule on Saturday. I disagree with that assessment, but I can't blame someone who doesn't watch every game from drawing that conclusion either.

Iowa has one quality win just like Minnesota, but one more loss. More importantly, Iowa could have lost to Illinois and Nebraska the past two weeks. There is no explanation for them going 3-0 in their last 3 games that doesn't include a lot of luck. The Gophers trounced both Illinois and Nebraska. In no way do I believe Minnesota deserves to be ranked above Penn State, despite the head to head win, but that same logic should apply to Iowa as well. The only reason it doesn't is because of the stigma Minnesota still has to overcome. I have no doubt Minnesota was better than Iowa and never should have lost that game. Again, it just shows how important not choking down the stretch this year was.
 

Believe it or not, they are biased by recruiting rankings, perceived talent, how good you were supposed to be at the beginning of the year, brand and the EYE test. Welcome to college football.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
Alabama doesn't have a single top 25 win and has the same record as us but they're significantly ahead of us. I know their losses are a bit better and their wins against mediocre to bad teams are better but why should that come before beating good teams? They beat up on teams they should have beat up on and lost their 2 hard games.

I think if we were named Alabama and they were named Minnesota we'd be around 12 and they'd be around 18.
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Alabama dropped too far. Does anyone really think Baylor beats them on a neutral field?

Rankings are amusing. If the #1 team defeats the #2 team by a field goal, the #2 team will drop in the rankings. Seems like one possibility is that the poll may have got it right.
 

Some guy said:
The committee is a joke because they change their criteria for what’s important based on what they want to sell.

minnesota has a weak strength of schedule. Only one quality win. Two losses.

Well Bama has the same thing except no quality wins and is 12.

which is fine but stupid.

The whole criteria is subjective.

If you ever wanted a true champion you’d have all conference champions in (10) plus a couple at largest 2-6. The rankings would be picked by objective criteria not strange things like “eye test”

I think college hockey might do it the best
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I feel like they have about 5 or 6 different criteria and just apply it whenever it defends a ranking. See below. They can spin it anyway they want. “It was a close loss” can be changed to “bad loss” for the same game.

 

This just solidifies Penn States entry into the Rose Bowl, I have to believe that the committee wanted them there, and to make sure of that they dropped the 10-2 Gopher team (who beat Penn State) to the 18th spot to generate separation between the two teams. Lets face it, be honest people, the Rose Committee that represents the Grand Daddy of them all didn't want a 3 loss team in their game. Wisconsin is going to get absolutely drilled by OSU leaving them with three losses, one of which is a VERY BAD loss to Illinois (do they count anymore?) . That will allow Penn State to move ahead of Wisconsin in the final poll leaving two teams with 2 losses, Minnesota and Penn State. The committee thinks the body of work that the Gophers posted was subpar virtually guaranteeing a Penn State visit to the Rose Bowl even though the Gophers beat them. How else can you justify Michigan and Iowa being ranked ahead of us? Oh my the politics of college football.

I hope that PJ Fleck and the gophers completely throttle what ever opponent they get in a bowl game. Score 7 touchdowns and 7 - 2 point conversions, and then publicly apologize to the team they beat, but that it was a statement to the committee that they embarrassed themselves by moving us down.
 

In all seriousness, I think the Rose Bowl may have been licking their chops if.... Utah beats Oregon and finishes as a one loss team and gets left out of the College Football Playoffs by being ranked #5. That would assure a appearance in the Rose Bowl. How fun would that have for them to market Utah (a team that got left out) against a team that hadn't been there since 1962? The media would have a writing frenzy.
 

MGGopher said:
Thoughts?
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Big drop, but the coaches and AP writers have the last word - they have us higher now and if we do well in the bowl game, we'll be higher yet in the final polls, which are recognized by the NCAA as official.
 


Looks about right though I still think Minnesota is better than Iowa. Every other team on this list I agree with.
 

MGGopher said:
Thoughts?
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We have no real brand yet and the other teams do plus we did not beat a rival and looked very poor at home with it all on the line. Penn State is very over rated but they have the brand.
 

I'm of two minds on this. It looks like we objectively got screwed. It is tough to imagine us landing down at 18 if this were a blind resume situation and no one knew the identity of the teams.

On the other hand, we had a chance to leave no doubt, but in our last two big games, we showed up for a combined 3 quarters of football. When we wet the bed that badly, this wound (while unjustified) also feels pretty self-inflicted.
 

CurveballJesus said:
CFP Committee: Wisconsin and Iowa have terrific wins over a great team like Minnesota, so they need to be ranked high.

Also CFP Committee: Minnesota is terrible and should be ranked behind Memphis and every other 3 loss P5 team.
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This was exactly my reaction. Crazy!
 

18 was not what I was expecting, and we are behind some very questionable teams at this point.

14-16 was closer to where I thought we'd land, and I thought that was being pretty harsh on the Gophers. This is ridiculous.
 

Here are the most recent Sagarin rankings: College Football 2019 through games of November 30 Saturday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.32] [ 2.30] [ 2.37] [ 2.30] 1 Ohio State A = 106.26 12 0 74.04( 29) 2 0 | 3 0 | 106.32 1 | 104.85 1 | 107.28 1 BIG TEN-E 2 Clemson A = 100.18 12 0 68.52( 66) 0 0 | 1 0 | 100.45 2 | 100.05 2 | 99.54 3 ACC-ATL 3 LSU A = 99.11 12 0 74.46( 25) 2 0 | 5 0 | 97.10 4 | 98.47 3 | 101.81 2 SEC-WEST 4 Alabama A = 96.81 10 2 70.83( 53) 0 2 | 1 2 | 98.71 3 | 98.19 4 | 93.85 7 SEC-WEST 5 Georgia A = 94.76 11 1 73.36( 36) 1 0 | 4 0 | 93.81 5 | 94.45 5 | 95.55 4 SEC-EAST 6 Oklahoma A = 93.87 11 1 74.86( 22) 0 0 | 4 1 | 93.09 6 | 93.87 6 | 94.14 5 BIG 12 7 Wisconsin A = 92.89 10 2 73.24( 38) 1 1 | 3 1 | 92.65 7 | 91.71 7 | 93.90 6 BIG TEN-W 8 Michigan A = 91.12 9 3 76.01( 11) 0 2 | 2 3 | 89.90 13 | 91.56 8 | 91.43 9 BIG TEN-E 9 Utah A = 90.93 11 1 70.52( 54) 0 0 | 1 1 | 90.57 9 | 89.57 13 | 92.26 8 PAC-12-S 10 Auburn A = 90.87 9 3 78.69( 2) 1 2 | 3 3 | 91.23 8 | 90.57 9 | 90.32 12 SEC-WEST 11 Penn State A = 90.63 10 2 72.78( 41) 1 1 | 2 2 | 90.50 10 | 90.30 10 | 90.56 10 BIG TEN-E 12 Florida A = 90.33 10 2 74.46( 26) 1 2 | 1 2 | 90.08 11 | 90.09 11 | 90.28 13 SEC-EAST 13 Oregon A = 89.85 10 2 72.45( 44) 0 1 | 2 1 | 89.90 12 | 89.63 12 | 89.50 14 PAC-12-N 14 Notre Dame A = 89.47 10 2 73.49( 34) 0 2 | 3 2 | 89.69 14 | 89.26 14 | 88.97 15 I-A IND. 15 Baylor A = 88.07 11 1 72.75( 42) 0 1 | 4 1 | 85.69 15 | 87.94 15 | 90.49 11 BIG 12 16 Iowa A = 84.46 9 3 73.38( 35) 0 2 | 2 3 | 83.33 20 | 84.33 16 | 85.26 17 BIG TEN-W 17 Texas A&M A = 83.44 7 5 75.62( 18) 0 5 | 0 5 | 83.70 19 | 83.75 17 | 82.41 21 SEC-WEST 18 Memphis A = 83.44 11 1 67.21( 72) 0 0 | 1 0 | 80.93 25 | 82.44 22 | 87.11 16 AAC WEST 19 Washington A = 83.20 7 5 73.10( 40) 0 1 | 1 2 | 85.61 16 | 83.13 19 | 80.80 29 PAC-12-N 20 Texas A = 83.15 7 5 77.81( 4) 0 2 | 2 4 | 84.50 17 | 83.50 18 | 81.16 27 BIG 12 21 Southern California A = 82.68 8 4 75.81( 14) 1 0 | 1 3 | 81.33 23 | 81.68 23 | 84.72 18 PAC-12-S 22 Oklahoma State A = 82.55 8 4 76.14( 10) 0 1 | 2 3 | 82.49 21 | 82.68 20 | 81.97 25 BIG 12 23 Iowa State A = 82.36 7 5 76.85( 7) 0 1 | 1 5 | 84.12 18 | 82.61 21 | 80.14 31 BIG 12 24 Kansas State A = 81.74 8 4 75.76( 15) 1 0 | 2 3 | 81.40 22 | 80.87 27 | 82.47 19 BIG 12 25 Minnesota A = 81.51 10 2 69.52( 59) 0 1 | 1 2 | 80.38 26 | 81.46 24 | 82.22 22 BIG TEN-W 26 Central Florida(UCF) A = 80.98 9 3 65.05( 79) 0 0 | 0 0 | 81.27 24 | 81.14 26 | 80.03 32 AAC EAST 27 Boise State A = 80.88 11 1 63.90( 88) 0 0 | 0 0 | 78.55 29 | 81.38 25 | 82.45 20 MWC-MTN 28 Appalachian State A = 80.15 11 1 59.57( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 78.71 28 | 79.63 28 | 81.73 26 SUN BELT-E 29 Navy A = 79.32 9 2 67.18( 73) 0 0 | 0 2 | 78.23 31 | 77.51 33 | 82.02 24 AAC WEST 30 Virginia A = 78.88 9 3 67.66( 69) 0 0 | 0 1 | 77.24 32 | 78.24 29 | 80.84 28 ACC-COA

They are fairly in line with the CFP rankings: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/
 

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