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GophersInIowa said:
@GopherWeatherGuy Any signs of some colder weather? Looks like we get a day or two but then back to above average temps.
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No really cold air in sight yet, but the storm pattern has turned much more active. Eastern MN through all of IA and WI should see 2-4"+ of rain over the next 10 days.

I do think far eastern MN and western WI, including parts of the metro will see at least a coating of snow Thursday AM.
 




as we approach Noon Central time in SW MN, I would say that Windom has received 2 or 3" of snow. It's a really sloppy mess out there. Temp is 34 with a wind chill of 22. supposed to be a high of 42 today, but get up to 52 Friday, so it should melt.

I'm debating whether to shovel the sidewalk or just say screw it and wait for it to melt.

and then we have 70% chance of rain Saturday night, 80% Sunday, 70% Monday and 50% Tuesday. this will be the most rain we've gotten since late June and early July when we had all the flooding around here.
 


GophersInIowa said:
Looks like changes in the pattern finally coming next week @GopherWeatherGuy? Cold weather specifically.
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I thought that was going to be the case until this afternoons Euro run. Now it's back to 40s and rain next week. Long range forecasts are nearly impossible this time of the year. The cold air is closer than it has been, but we'll see if it makes it down here next week. I just need this weekend to finish yard chores, then I'm ready for the snow.❄️

We're going to have a below average month soon and I really think it's going to be December. I just need to see it before I believe it.
 
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
I thought that was going to be the case until this afternoons Euro run. Now it's back to 40s and rain next week. Long range forecasts are nearly impossible this time of the year. The cold air is closer than it has been, but we'll see if it makes it down here next week. I just need this weekend to finish yard chores, then I'm ready for the snow.❄️

We're going to have a below average month soon and I really think it's going to be December. I just need to see it before I believe it.
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Can you make the following months a repeat of last winter? I can throw in some Gopher basketball tickets to make it worth your while...
 




tikited said:
Can you make the following months a repeat of last winter? I can throw in some Gopher basketball tickets to make it worth your while...
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You're really twisting my arm now! I will never complain about a warm winter, but I'm really hoping for some good snow and good ice on the lakes this winter.
 





Last night's game in Cleveland was fun with the lake effect snow coming down. Still one of my life goals is to witness one of those major lake effect events.

Looks like winter has arrived.
1732291898334.png
 

We're going to build a lot of ice on the lakes over the next few weeks, but there's not much for snow in the forecast.

This is a pretty classic La Nina pattern, so I think we'll start getting regular clippers to add a few inches of snow at a time, but not likely until the 2nd week of December.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
We're going to build a lot of ice on the lakes over the next few weeks, but there's not much for snow in the forecast.

This is a pretty classic La Nina pattern, so I think we'll start getting regular clippers to add a few inches of snow at a time, but not likely until the 2nd week of December.
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Ice fishermen like me thank you for the wonderful news but the sleds laugh at me in the garage.
 


Gotta believe the lakes will start to freeze over here any day. Would be a nice early start to ice season.
 

Anyone out fishing yet? I've seen a lot of places in the Alexandria area with 6-12 inches and that was a few days ago.
 



Looks like the dry air really cut down on the totals in western MN where my parents are. Was hoping for a bunch for the kids to play with when we're there next week.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Finally a real storm. 4-7" seems likely across most of the metro, and I think a few spots may see 8" or 9".
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I have a dumb question for you. We see "lake enhanced snow" here in WI near Lake Michigan and up in the arrowhead of MN a lot early in winter. How does that work when the snow is coming from west to east?

Like below is from yesterday and last night. The snow was coming from west to east but there's clearly lake enhancement totals near Lake Michigan. Is it because moisture from the lake is able to make it's way west?

I've always been confused by this because true lake effect is created over a lake like we see around Buffalo.

1734713460193.png
 

GophersInIowa said:
I have a dumb question for you. We see "lake enhanced snow" here in WI near Lake Michigan and up in the arrowhead of MN a lot early in winter. How does that work when the snow is coming from west to east?

Like below is from yesterday and last night. The snow was coming from west to east but there's clearly lake enhancement totals near Lake Michigan. Is it because moisture from the lake is able to make it's way west?

I've always been confused by this because true lake effect is created over a lake like we see around Buffalo.

View attachment 35106
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The overall storm is moving west to east, but the low level winds still rotate counter clockwise around the low pressure system.

Lake effect snow happens in MN/WI win surface winds are out of the E/NE on the northeast side of the low pressure system, with the heavier snow reports on on the west side of the lake.

In areas like Buffalo where they lie to the east of the lake, their lake effect occurs behind a strong cold front where surface winds across the lake are out of the W/NW.

It's all about the direction of the surface winds across the lake. The longer the fetch of cold air across a warm lake, the heavier the snow will be.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
The overall storm is moving west to east, but the low level winds still rotate counter clockwise around the low pressure system.

Lake effect snow happens in MN/WI win surface winds are out of the E/NE on the northeast side of the low pressure system, with the heavier snow reports on on the west side of the lake.

In areas like Buffalo where they lie to the east of the lake, their lake effect occurs behind a strong cold front where surface winds across the lake are out of the W/NW.

It's all about the direction of the surface winds across the lake. The longer the fetch of cold air across a warm lake, the heavier the snow will be.
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Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
 

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