All Things Weather

Slim Tubby

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I went on a hike last weekend. It was -4 below when I got out of my car.

I had long johns, fleece sweatpants, and snow pants on. I also wore a sweatshirt, the lining from an old winter coat and my new winter coat. Electric gloves (Christmas gift...they work). Facemask stocking cap to round it out. I was very, very toasty. I imagine you would have really hated wearing all of that.
Tikited...the early years:

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gopher7

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Twin Cities have reached 50° F twelve times in January, most recently 52 on 1/10/2012.

Earliest 60° or greater is Feb 15, 1921. Four days after this the high was 9 and low -6
 

Ope3

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All I know is I was just waiting outdoors at a taco truck in Mpls with nothing more than a hoodie for a little more than 5 minutes.

All good, both the weather and the carne asada treat, especially on Jan 22.
 



GopherWeatherGuy

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Twin Cities have reached 50° F twelve times in January, most recently 52 on 1/10/2012.

Earliest 60° or greater is Feb 15, 1921. Four days after this the high was 9 and low -6

I understand why some are saying this is possible, and I won't be surprised if we hit 50, but I will be surprised if we get close to 60.

We'll quickly melt through the snow in the Twin Cities area, but the first week of Feb could be interesting. It'll start warm, but it could turn stormy pretty quickly again.
 

GophersInIowa

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I understand why some are saying this is possible, and I won't be surprised if we hit 50, but I will be surprised if we get close to 60.

We'll quickly melt through the snow in the Twin Cities area, but the first week of Feb could be interesting. It'll start warm, but it could turn stormy pretty quickly again.
The social media weather guys really like to push the more extreme scenarios. They’re a little over dramatic at times.

We postponed our fishing trip until Presidents Day weekend so as long as there isn’t a long period of really warm temps we should be just fine.
 


Ope3

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I understand why some are saying this is possible, and I won't be surprised if we hit 50, but I will be surprised if we get close to 60.

We'll quickly melt through the snow in the Twin Cities area, but the first week of Feb could be interesting. It'll start warm, but it could turn stormy pretty quickly again.
It's shaping up that Wednesday is going to be the day to crack the 50 barrier, if it happens. Last day of January.

Oh my.
 



GopherWeatherGuy

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It's shaping up that Wednesday is going to be the day to crack the 50 barrier, if it happens. Last day of January.

Oh my.

It looks like that will be the day.

It's going to be hard for the Arctic air to make a comeback this season. We'll see a stormier pattern starting the 2nd week of February. Will it stay south, or will we actually get some snow out of it?

If we don't get much snow in mid Feb, then hello early spring.
 

Slim Tubby

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It looks like that will be the day.

It's going to be hard for the Arctic air to make a comeback this season. We'll see a stormier pattern starting the 2nd week of February. Will it stay south, or will we actually get some snow out of it?

If we don't get much snow in mid Feb, then hello early spring.
Is the northern central part of the state expected to get more precip this year? We literally had two (2) thunderstorms all of 2023 and a lack of snow would be devastating for the farmers in the area.
 

MplsGopher

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Note: the video below has a provocative title slide on purpose. But it really is an excellent video about climate science and modeling, for most of it. Then the last few minutes go into things of a more geo-political nature, etc.

Please REFRAIN from talking about that part here, in this thread.

I just wanted to share for how interesting the climate modeling part was, the main part of video.

 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Is the northern central part of the state expected to get more precip this year? We literally had two (2) thunderstorms all of 2023 and a lack of snow would be devastating for the farmers in the area.

It's hard to know right now. I'm generally optimistic about a stormier weather pattern in the spring/summer during an El Nino. But looking back at the most comparable winter using ENSO over the last several years and 1958 is the closest. Only 21" of snow that winter with half of that coming in November.

The storm track stayed to the south that spring/summer and MN remained dry. We only picked up 19" the following winter too.
 

Slim Tubby

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It's hard to know right now. I'm generally optimistic about a stormier weather pattern in the spring/summer during an El Nino. But looking back at the most comparable winter using ENSO over the last several years and 1958 is the closest. Only 21" of snow that winter with half of that coming in November.

The storm track stayed to the south that spring/summer and MN remained dry. We only picked up 19" the following winter too.
Thanks for the input...some of my best friends are farmers up here and last year was devastating, both financially and emotionally, and caused by things they have no control over. Some years there is no rain, other years it can be hail storms and other years they can be plagued by insects and disease. They provide so much for us and get so little appreciation for how hard and stressful their lives can be.
 

MplsGopher

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Thanks for the input...some of my best friends are farmers up here and last year was devastating, both financially and emotionally, and caused by things they have no control over. Some years there is no rain, other years it can be hail storms and other years they can be plagued by insects and disease. They provide so much for us and get so little appreciation for how hard and stressful their lives can be.
I can’t remember which country it was but I recall reading recently they were doing a really serious effort on trying the old idea of seeding clouds for rain.
 

GophersInIowa

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We postponed our fishing trip until Presidents Day weekend so as long as there isn’t a long period of really warm temps we should be just fine.
Dad had to remove the house today with only a foot of ice, no snow and warm temps. Gonna need some good cold weather the week before otherwise it isn’t gonna happen.

One of the weirdest winters I can remember.
 

Ope3

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It looks like that will be the day.

It's going to be hard for the Arctic air to make a comeback this season. We'll see a stormier pattern starting the 2nd week of February. Will it stay south, or will we actually get some snow out of it?

If we don't get much snow in mid Feb, then hello early spring.
Darn close today, maybe some locations made it to 50, but my phone in the metro says it topped out at 48.
 


GopherWeatherGuy

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The pattern will still try to turn stormier the 2nd week of Feb, but there's no real Arctic air in sight. This winter is pretty much dead. Bring on the 70s-80s in mid March like in 2012.
 


short ornery norwegian

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There were tornadoes Thursday in Wisconsin. Tornadoes - in Wisconsin - in February. What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? details from the Strib:

The first tornado ever recorded in Wisconsin in the usually frigid month of February that tore through mostly rural areas came on a day that broke records for warmth, setting up the perfect scenario for the type of severe weather normally seen in the late spring and summer.

The storms left a swath of destruction that included dead and missing cows, roofs blown off of homes, destroyed storage sheds and barns, trashed vehicles and shattered windows.

At least one tornado was confirmed south of Madison and the National Weather Service was investigating reports of several more spawned from storms that swept across the southeastern part of the state around 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, said meteorologist Taylor Patterson.

There were no reports of significant injuries. Local emergency management officials reported dozens of buildings, power lines and other structures that were damaged in the path of the storm that formed in eastern Iowa and died out near Milwaukee. The temperature was a record high for the date: 59 degrees (15 Celsius).

Conditions collided in Wisconsin late afternoon on Thursday creating the perfect conditions for tornadoes to form, Patterson said. That included rapidly warming temperatures that topped out at a record-tying 55 degrees Fahrenheit (13 Celsius) in Madison and more moisture with rapidly rising air, creating thunderstorms, Patterson said.

Weather service teams will determine how strong the tornadoes were and how many formed. Photos and video shot near Evansville, Wisconsin, that were posted on social media show a tornado with lightning flashing around it.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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I was actually a little surprised this was the first tornado in Wisconsin in February. There were tornadoes in the Kenosha area in early January back in 2008.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I was actually a little surprised this was the first tornado in Wisconsin in February. There were tornadoes in the Kenosha area in early January back in 2008.

from what I can find, it appears the earliest confirmed tornado in MN was on March 6th. I don't know if you are aware of another data base, but the ones I can find show no tornadoes in MN ever in Jan or Feb.
 

GophersInIowa

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There were tornadoes Thursday in Wisconsin. Tornadoes - in Wisconsin - in February. What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? details from the Strib:

The first tornado ever recorded in Wisconsin in the usually frigid month of February that tore through mostly rural areas came on a day that broke records for warmth, setting up the perfect scenario for the type of severe weather normally seen in the late spring and summer.

The storms left a swath of destruction that included dead and missing cows, roofs blown off of homes, destroyed storage sheds and barns, trashed vehicles and shattered windows.

At least one tornado was confirmed south of Madison and the National Weather Service was investigating reports of several more spawned from storms that swept across the southeastern part of the state around 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, said meteorologist Taylor Patterson.

There were no reports of significant injuries. Local emergency management officials reported dozens of buildings, power lines and other structures that were damaged in the path of the storm that formed in eastern Iowa and died out near Milwaukee. The temperature was a record high for the date: 59 degrees (15 Celsius).

Conditions collided in Wisconsin late afternoon on Thursday creating the perfect conditions for tornadoes to form, Patterson said. That included rapidly warming temperatures that topped out at a record-tying 55 degrees Fahrenheit (13 Celsius) in Madison and more moisture with rapidly rising air, creating thunderstorms, Patterson said.

Weather service teams will determine how strong the tornadoes were and how many formed. Photos and video shot near Evansville, Wisconsin, that were posted on social media show a tornado with lightning flashing around it.
Yeah not too far from me in Madison. One of my colleagues has friends in Evansville and they had some damage to their house.

Lots of cool lightning strikes that I saw driving home from work last night.
 

Ope3

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Just think if the Super Bowl had been in Minneapolis instead of Las Vegas. I think the event goers would have had better weather here, or pretty close.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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from what I can find, it appears the earliest confirmed tornado in MN was on March 6th. I don't know if you are aware of another data base, but the ones I can find show no tornadoes in MN ever in Jan or Feb.

That's correct. March 6th is the earliest in MN.
 




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