All Things Bowl Game Speculation

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mjfelton15 said:
Wouldn’t that just be some crazy shit if the Rose Bowl committee was like, “hey, I know Minnesota may not be the most qualified in ranking and with their losses to Iowa and Wisconsin, but they’re an exciting team with a fan base that’s craving the opportunity to come to our bowl, they had a heck of a season and they haven’t been here in forever. We’re giving them the bid.”

I’m posting this right now so there’s proof I said it, just in the craziest, slightest chance ever that it were to happen.
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It’s admittedly very unlikely but a plausible argument can be made where people wouldn’t storm Pasadena with pitchforks if the Gophers went. Namely if there’s only two 2 loss teams at 10-2 with the next best records after OSU (assuming WI loses big) then the Rose takes the one who beat the other. Not exactly a charity handout expressed that way.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
www.espn.com

Projecting all 41 bowl games, including the College Football Playoff

With less than a week to go until the final selections are made, see how our experts envision the entire bowl schedule playing out.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Tennessee

Alabama ... or Tennessee

The range of difficulty there is pretty damn wide.
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These projections have Wisconsin in the Gator Bowl. I guess it's possible since they went to the Outback in 2015, but that's quite a drop from the Rose Bowl where Palm has them.

Projections are all over the place. Unless we get some solid intel, it's really going to be cloak and dagger until Sunday...
 

Palm explains his thinking and the ramifications of Florida jumping PSU last night: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...l-playoff-rankings-shakes-up-sec-big-ten/amp/

I think Citrus Bowl officials were leaking their interest in Minnesota a few weeks ago because a bunch of projections shifted to MN after about week 10. That said, they could also take Michigan in this scenario, and I read somewhere that the highest ever attendance at a Citrus Bowl was for Mich - Florida a few years ago. I'd think Michigan - Alabama would be too much to pass up, relegating Minnesota to the Gator vs. Kentucky or some such team. I'm sure most of the country would like that much better.

Again though, there are just so many possibilities right now. It's fun, you can think yourself into circles.
 

MGGopher said:
Palm explains his thinking and the ramifications of Florida jumping PSU last night: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...l-playoff-rankings-shakes-up-sec-big-ten/amp/

I'd think Michigan - Alabama would be too much to pass up, relegating Minnesota to the Gator vs. Kentucky or some such team. I'm sure most of the country would like that much better.
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The overwhelming consensus among the pundits is that Minnesota is going to the Outback Bowl. That really does seem to be the plausible destination as Michigan has been there recently while I believe Iowa has been there twice in the last five years. While it's possible that they could meet one of the top 5 SEC teams (like Auburn), it seems more likely that they will play either Texas A&M or Tennessee.
 

fmlizard said:
I only watched Bama once all year and it was against Tennessee. They were closer than you might imagine, especially once Tua had his first injury in that game. Vols had a chance until a 99 yard scoop and score made the score look worse in the last minute.
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They played them close but in a matchup with us I suspect that an angry Bama out to prove something is far more dangerous. They've got talent up the wazoo.
 



Billy M said:
These take into consideration who recently played in the bowls the Big Ten is aligned with as the Conference now tries to send teams to different bowls. This also assumes OSU beats Wisconsin in BT Championship.

CFP - Ohio State
Rose - PSU (Wisconsin should drop past PSU with a loss and even if they don't it might not matter as the Rose can take who it wants.)
Citrus - Wisconsin (PSU-Minnesota-Michigan recently played there)
Outback - Minnesota (Iowa-Wisconsin-Michigan recently played there)
Holiday - Iowa (Wisconsin-Minnesota-MSU recently played there)
Gator - Michigan (Iowa and PSU recently played there)

If the Rose does take Wisconsin then Minnesota would likely drop to the Gator:
CFP - Ohio State
Rose - Wisconsin
Citrus - Iowa (PSU-Minnesota-Michigan recently played there)
Outback - PSU (Iowa-Wisconsin-Michigan recently played there)
Holiday - Michigan (Wisconsin-Minnesota-MSU recently played there)
Gator - Minnesota (Iowa and PSU recently played there)

Not that I need any extra motivation but I will be rooting even harder for an OSU beatdown of Wisconsin now!
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There is one wrinkle here in the latest predictions that I think people are possibly missing: if both Penn St and Wisconsin end the season ranked in the top 10 of the CFP, then one will go to the Rose and the other will go to the Cotton Bowl to play the highest G5 champion.

Now, when Wisconsin loses to Ohio State ... will they drop out of the top 10? Don't know yet. Auburn is sitting at #11 with three losses. I guess it will come down to if the committee things Wisconsin is better than Auburn.
 

Also, per the rules (that have been posted various times now), the Citrus is NOT prevented from selecting any team it wants and that is available to them, including Michigan and Minnesota.

The rules just say five teams in six years. This is year six, and they've had three different Big Ten teams. So any repeat team is allowed.
 

I would like to amend my above post. The scenario is very interesting this year, because all three contract bowls have to honor their contracted tie-ins, since none are CFP semi-final games. That gives the potential for the highest number of teams outside the top 12 to make NY6 games.

These are what I think are the three most likely scenarios, predicated on who gets the last CFP spot (with Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson in).

- if Utah gets it:
-- then the Rose bowl has to take another PAC team outside the top 12, with Oregon currently sitting at #13 but would also mean that Utah beat them in the champ game. Committee could artificially decide to put them top 12 anyway, but I doubt it. Also takes Penn State
-- Sugar takes Georgia and OU/Baylor winner
-- Orange has to take an ACC team outside the top 12, then probably takes Florida which will slide up one ahead of Penn St
-- that would leave the 9th ranked team to go to the Cotton, and I'm sure they'd very much prefer to have Baylor instead of Wisconsin, not sure if the committee would oblige or not

if Georgia gets it:
-- Rose is easy, Utah and Penn St
-- Sugar would have to reach down to take Florida, and then the OU/Baylor winner
-- Orange might then have to take Wisconsin! Depends where they'd put Auburn in the final ranking.
-- Depending how the rankings shake out, the #10 team could be any of Wisconisn, Auburn, or Baylor, and would go to the Cotton

- if Oklahoma gets it: (this is easiest one)
-- Rose is easy, Utah and Penn St
-- Sugar is easy, Georgia and Baylor
-- Orange is the ACC team and Florida
-- Cotton is #10, which I assume would be Wisconsin, but might be Auburn too


None of those are for sure. Lot of ins, lot of outs. Committee's mind could be heavily swayed by the way teams play in the champ games. Blowouts could drop teams several more spots than I'm thinking.
 



stocker08 said:
Citrus or Outback Bowl against Alabama would be absolutely AWESOME! If we got Auburn instead....that's awesome as well.
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Auburn, Alabama, or Florida are my desired teams. I'm not going, so I dont have a specific bowl I want, but I hope the team enjoys their time in FL
 

A lot of guys are not going to like a loss in the bowl game no matter who we play. The whole "should of", "would have", "out coached", "played to lose", "didn't play to win", "Gophers always lose", etc. stuff will come pouring out from all the guys who think they understand coaching better than our coaches. Particularly unpopular will be the "we lost three of our last four games and the sky is falling" school of "thought". Additionally, we would be 10-3 on the season, same as the "unsuccessful" 2003 team. All of this would go on for at least, at least ten months. I hope we draw a bowl game opponent that most closely matches our about right #18 ranking. Winning is good, losing is bad.
 

Veritas said:
A lot of guys are not going to like a loss in the bowl game no matter who we play. The whole "should of", "would have", "out coached", "played to lose", "didn't play to win", "Gophers always lose", etc. stuff will come pouring out from all the guys who think they understand coaching better than our coaches. Particularly unpopular will be the "we lost three of our last four games and the sky is falling" school of "thought". Additionally, we would be 10-3 on the season, same as the "unsuccessful" 2003 team. All of this would go on for at least, at least ten months. I hope we draw a bowl game opponent that most closely matches our about right #18 ranking. Winning is good, losing is bad.
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Yeah a NYD kinda bowl win IMO could be a big booster.

A loss.... we're gonna have to build a lot of that hype up again.
 

It's funny that some people cite the rules, and then don't even know what the rules are. The selection criteria explicitly states that "Big Ten schools will not go to the same bowl in back-to-back years (except for Rose Bowl and CFP bowls)". For this reason, PSU cannot and will not be selected for the Citrus Bowl. They will probably end up in the Rose Bowl anyway, but they will definitely not be in the Citrus Bowl, leaving another potential open spot that might go to us.
 



What is the correct way to interpret the language “will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over the six-year agreement”, if the bowl isn’t selecting a Big Ten school every season?

Because the obvious thing they were thinking of when they wrote that, was that for a bowl that selects six BT teams in six seasons, one year they can have a repeat, so long as it isn’t the same team back-to-back. But did they mean to allow the bowl to exercise that repeat at any point in the six year period, or only *after* they had met the five team diversity criteria??

If the latter interpretation is correct, then neither Minn or Mich are eligible for the Citrus this season (Penn St was there last season, and so doesn’t qualify anyway due to the back-to-back clause).
 
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dpodoll68 said:
It's funny that some people cite the rules, and then don't even know what the rules are.
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For the record I only cite made up rules that I also do not understand.

Such as "dpodoll68 is a poo poo head and has cooties!"

Make of that what you want.
 

fmlizard said:
It’s admittedly very unlikely but a plausible argument can be made where people wouldn’t storm Pasadena with pitchforks if the Gophers went. Namely if there’s only two 2 loss teams at 10-2 with the next best records after OSU (assuming WI loses big) then the Rose takes the one who beat the other. Not exactly a charity handout expressed that way.
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rose bowl has sold out since 1947...
 


MplsGopher said:
What is the correct way to interpret the language “will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over the six-year agreement”, if the bowl isn’t selecting a Big Ten school every season?

Because the obvious thing they were thinking of when they wrote that, was that for a bowl that selects six BT teams in six seasons, one year they can have a repeat, so long as it isn’t the same team back-to-back. But did they mean to allow the bowl to exercise that repeat at any point in the six year period, or only *after* they had met the five team diversity criteria??

If the latter interpretation is correct, then neither Minn or Mich are eligible for the Citrus this season (Penn St was there last season, and so doesn’t qualify anyway due to the back-to-back clause).
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It's a good question. My interpretation has always been that you can only have 1 repeat team within the 6 years (provided they aren't back to back). Thus I've been assuming Penn State was not eligible for Citrus but Michigan and Minnesota were.
 

Since it keeps getting brought up, here is the info from "College Football News.com"

Big Ten Bowl Ties, Affiliations
A Big Ten team will be in the Rose Bowl – it’ll be the champion if not in the College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected
1. Rose Bowl vs. Pac-12
2. Citrus Bowl vs. ACC or SEC
– Agreement for Citrus is for five different teams in six years, so no Penn State, Minnesota or Michigan, if possible.
3. Outback Bowl vs. SEC
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern, if possible.
4. San Diego Country Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern or Wisconsin, if possible.
5. TaxSlayer Bowl vs. SEC OR
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl vs. SEC
– ACC and Big Ten combine in the Music City and TaxSlayer, with each getting three appearances in six years. The Big Ten played in TaxSlayer in 2015 and the Music City in 2016, 2017 & 2018. It’s almost certainly going to be in the TaxSlayer, but no Iowa or Penn State, if possible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs. ACC
– It’s not official, but the bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years, so no Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State or Wisconsin, if possible.
Redbox Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska or Purdue, if possible.
Quick Lane Bowl vs. ACC
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. Mountain West
– Agreement for three SERVPRO First Responders and three Armed Forces bowls in six years. The Big Ten hasn’t been in the Armed Force Bowl since 2014. The Big 12 is contracted to play in the SERVPRO First Responders in 2019.

As I read it, Gophers most likely would not go to the Citrus or Holiday Bowl - so it seems as if it's either Outback or they drop to the Tax Slayer Bowl.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Since it keeps getting brought up, here is the info from "College Football News.com"

Big Ten Bowl Ties, Affiliations
A Big Ten team will be in the Rose Bowl – it’ll be the champion if not in the College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected
1. Rose Bowl vs. Pac-12
2. Citrus Bowl vs. ACC or SEC
– Agreement for Citrus is for five different teams in six years, so no Penn State, Minnesota or Michigan, if possible.
3. Outback Bowl vs. SEC
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern, if possible.
4. San Diego Country Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern or Wisconsin, if possible.
5. TaxSlayer Bowl vs. SEC OR
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl vs. SEC
– ACC and Big Ten combine in the Music City and TaxSlayer, with each getting three appearances in six years. The Big Ten played in TaxSlayer in 2015 and the Music City in 2016, 2017 & 2018. It’s almost certainly going to be in the TaxSlayer, but no Iowa or Penn State, if possible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs. ACC
– It’s not official, but the bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years, so no Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State or Wisconsin, if possible.
Redbox Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska or Purdue, if possible.
Quick Lane Bowl vs. ACC
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. Mountain West
– Agreement for three SERVPRO First Responders and three Armed Forces bowls in six years. The Big Ten hasn’t been in the Armed Force Bowl since 2014. The Big 12 is contracted to play in the SERVPRO First Responders in 2019.

As I read it, Gophers most likely would not go to the Citrus or Holiday Bowl - so it seems as if it's either Outback or they drop to the Tax Slayer Bowl.
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Best post I’ve seen. Leave it to SON. He makes it look easy!!!

Gophers to Outback!
 
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It looks to me like Citrus needs WI, Outback needs PSU. Where does that leave us.....Rose Bowl I think!
 

MirandaB said:
It looks to me like Citrus needs WI, Outback needs PSU. Where does that leave us.....Rose Bowl I think!
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That would be nice, these bowl tie ins are like level 5 sudoku.

Rose- PSU
Citrus- Wisconsin
Outback- US
Gator- Michigan

Did I miss anyone? Indiana maybe to the gator and Michigan to the Holiday?
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Since it keeps getting brought up, here is the info from "College Football News.com"

Big Ten Bowl Ties, Affiliations
A Big Ten team will be in the Rose Bowl – it’ll be the champion if not in the College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected
1. Rose Bowl vs. Pac-12
2. Citrus Bowl vs. ACC or SEC
– Agreement for Citrus is for five different teams in six years, so no Penn State, Minnesota or Michigan, if possible.
3. Outback Bowl vs. SEC
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern, if possible.
4. San Diego Country Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern or Wisconsin, if possible.
5. TaxSlayer Bowl vs. SEC OR
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl vs. SEC
– ACC and Big Ten combine in the Music City and TaxSlayer, with each getting three appearances in six years. The Big Ten played in TaxSlayer in 2015 and the Music City in 2016, 2017 & 2018. It’s almost certainly going to be in the TaxSlayer, but no Iowa or Penn State, if possible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs. ACC
– It’s not official, but the bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years, so no Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State or Wisconsin, if possible.
Redbox Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska or Purdue, if possible.
Quick Lane Bowl vs. ACC
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. Mountain West
– Agreement for three SERVPRO First Responders and three Armed Forces bowls in six years. The Big Ten hasn’t been in the Armed Force Bowl since 2014. The Big 12 is contracted to play in the SERVPRO First Responders in 2019.

As I read it, Gophers most likely would not go to the Citrus or Holiday Bowl - so it seems as if it's either Outback or they drop to the Tax Slayer Bowl.
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That College Football News info is NOT correct. Citrus can take any Big Ten except Penn State.

The rule for Citrus was five teams in six years, but they didn't take any Big Ten team in the 2017 or 2018 season because the Orange Bowl did. So, the Citrus has not come close to five teams or have they had a recent repeat. EVERYONE (but PSU) is on the table for Citrus. PSU off table because of no repeat rule.

Citrus will almost certainly take Michigan to match up with Alabama.

If PSU is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Outback Bowl and Wisconsin to Gator Bowl.

If WIS is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Gator Bowl and Penn State to Outback.

(Assuming Wis/PSU don't get a different NY6 bowl game for non-Rose team)
 

tjgopher said:
That College Football News info is NOT correct. Citrus can take any Big Ten except Penn State.

The rule for Citrus was five teams in six years, but they didn't take any Big Ten team in the 2017 or 2018 season because the Orange Bowl did. So, the Citrus has not come close to five teams or have they had a recent repeat. EVERYONE (but PSU) is on the table for Citrus. PSU off table because of no repeat rule.

Citrus will almost certainly take Michigan to match up with Alabama.

If PSU is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Outback Bowl and Wisconsin to Gator Bowl.

If WIS is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Gator Bowl and Penn State to Outback.

(Assuming Wis/PSU don't get a different NY6 bowl game for non-Rose team)
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This is where I've landed as well after thinking WAY too much about this today. Pretty much comes down to who the Rose Bowl picks. If Wisconsin gets blown out, it's almost certainly PSU. If Wisc keeps it close (or wins, God forbid), it's probably Wisconsin.

It's gonna be a long 3 or 4 days waiting on this.
 

Fiasco said:
That would be nice, these bowl tie ins are like level 5 sudoku.

Rose- PSU
Citrus- Wisconsin
Outback- US
Gator- Michigan

Did I miss anyone? Indiana maybe to the gator and Michigan to the Holiday?
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Michigan is going to the Holiday.
 

tjgopher said:
That College Football News info is NOT correct. Citrus can take any Big Ten except Penn State.

The rule for Citrus was five teams in six years, but they didn't take any Big Ten team in the 2017 or 2018 season because the Orange Bowl did. So, the Citrus has not come close to five teams or have they had a recent repeat. EVERYONE (but PSU) is on the table for Citrus. PSU off table because of no repeat rule.

Citrus will almost certainly take Michigan to match up with Alabama.

If PSU is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Outback Bowl and Wisconsin to Gator Bowl.

If WIS is in Rose Bowl, Minnesota is going to Gator Bowl and Penn State to Outback.

(Assuming Wis/PSU don't get a different NY6 bowl game for non-Rose team)
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Why do you think the Citrus will take Michigan?
 

Spoofin said:
Michigan is going to the Holiday.
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Most outlets have Iowa to the Holiday because they've played recently in the Outback and Gator bowls. Lots of smoke around the Michigan - Alabama matchup in the Citrus Bowl being drool-worthy for bowl officials, the conference, and TV.
 

MGGopher said:
Most outlets have Iowa to the Holiday because they've played recently in the Outback and Gator bowls. Lots of smoke around the Michigan - Alabama matchup in the Citrus Bowl being drool-worthy for bowl officials, the conference, and TV.
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Not sure Michigan is the draw people think they are these days. Rather see what Minnesota could do vs. them. However, its unlikely any NFL caliber Alabama player plays given the recent history of them sitting out meaningless bowl games.
 


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