All Things Bowl Game Speculation

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The latest college football bowl projections (done last night or today) are unanimous on one game: Minnesota vs. Auburn in the Outback Bowl.

The Citrus has the first pick to Big Ten and SEC teams after the the top bowls. I read that they weren't too happy with the turnout the last time Minnesota played there. Michigan v. Alabama is a big name matchup and would seem to be a no-brainer for them (although one projection listed Iowa against Alabama).
 

cjbfbp said:
The latest college football bowl projections (done last night or today) are unanimous on one game: Minnesota vs. Auburn in the Outback Bowl.

The Citrus has the first pick to Big Ten and SEC teams after the the top bowls. I read that they weren't too happy with the turnout the last time Minnesota played there. Michigan v. Alabama is a big name matchup and would seem to be a no-brainer for them (although one projection listed Iowa against Alabama).
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I thought Minnesota had to request more tickets since they sold out of their allotment or something? Wasn’t there more Minnesota fans than Missouri too? Sounds like a lame duck excuse.
 

amk8930 said:
I thought Minnesota had to request more tickets since they sold out of their allotment or something? Wasn’t there more Minnesota fans than Missouri too? Sounds like a lame duck excuse.
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I can't speak to the first part, but I was at that bowl and it was at least 60% Gopher fans.
 

stocker08 said:
Michigan is not ineligible for the Outback Bowl. They played there two years ago and then....like seven years ago. Iowa played there last year so they are ineligible.



It really doesn't matter much. The Citrus and the Outback Bowl are basically equals. I believe they trade off taking turns as the third bowl in the Big Ten pecking order. Not to mention that they are both New Years Day bowls that are on at the same time.

Only difference is that the Citrus Bowl is on ABC while the Outback Bowl is on ESPN. So viewership would be quite a bit higher for the Citrus Bowl and depending on if Alabama sneaks into the NY6 bowls....it's possible that Auburn goes to the Citrus and either Tennessee or Texas A&M falls to the Outback.

Those are reasons why it would be better to go to the Citrus Bowl. However.....if both Auburn and Alabama are available for the Citrus/Outback Bowl.....either could go to either bowl......especially since Auburn beat Alabama head-to-head. And we've recently played in the Citrus Bowl...but I don't believe we've ever played in the Outback Bowl. Anyways...give me Alabama or Auburn in either and I'll be happy.
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historically though, Citrus was higher in the pecking order than outback. but you're right, these days, its sort of a rotation for teams that win 8-9 games sometimes 10 and have been to a certain bowl before.
 


It doesn't seem to be anyone's prediction, but would the best thing for the Gophers be that Auburn gets that last at large NY6 bid and goes to the Cotton Bowl? Would that potentially give Minnesota a matchup against Tennessee in the Outback Bowl? I guess it is also possible Wisconsin not getting the Rose or Cotton could leave the Gophers in the Gator Bowl which isn't ideal.

Personally, I am looking for a way that Minnesota avoids Auburn/Alabama for a better shot at the 11-2 finish. It doesn't seem right that we could potentially play Auburn/Alabama and have the toughest matchup of any B1G team (if tOSU were to play Oklahoma first). Of course, the upside of a win over Auburn/Alabama would be enormous for the program and would potentially put Minnesota in the top 10 of the post bowl rankings (they'd certainly deserve it).
 

Gold Rush said:
Well -- if you want to play in the big bowls you have to be ready to play the big teams. This will be a tough matchup for the Gophers, while both Wisconsin and Penn St. could get easier teams....that's the way it always seems to go for us -- it's never easy!
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Amen. Minnesota football can hang with anyone. Beat #4 Penn State. Even the Robb Smith-era Gophers took Ohio State deep into the 4th in Columbus last year. It’s not like our guys are going to die against Bama.

Every upstart team chants “we want Bama” when they win for the last 5-10 years. It’s the biggest brand name win a program can get even in a slightly off year for them. Hope we actually get our shot!
 

amk8930 said:
I thought Minnesota had to request more tickets since they sold out of their allotment or something? Wasn’t there more Minnesota fans than Missouri too? Sounds like a lame duck excuse.
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Yeah I read that article last night and gave it the serious side eye. Yes attendance for Minnesota/Mizzou was about 50K instead of the 60K they typically get. However, fans in Orlando back then were at least 2/3 Gophers and the shortfall was much more on Mizzou than the U.
 

SickAndTiredOfLosingToWI said:
We were supposed to get routed by WSU and then GA Tech in recent bowls. WI was supposed to clobber Illinois. We may lose to Alabama but we were also supposed to lose to PSU.
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Alabama is a different animal, the elite of the elite. They are a few points away from a perfect record Again. I just don't want a Big loss in a bowl game as that would be deflating for the program.
 



It's hard to tell how good the SEC is this year. Almost every power-5 team played a pretty weak non-conference schedule, so it is tough to gauge. Some exceptions to this include Auburn's narrow home win over Oregon in week 1, Georgia's 6 point home win over the Irish, Florida beat it's two in-state rivals (even though they aren't great this year).
I think the top 3 or 4 in the SEC are probably better than the top 3 or 4 in the Big Ten. Therefore, I think it would be a good equalizer if they had one more team in the NY6 bowls than the B1G. Alabama and Auburn do make me a little nervous, but the drop to Texas A&M and Tennessee is a big one and I think those would be very winnable games.
If you forced me into an either/or decision, I'd rather take an 11-2 record with a weak bowl victory over a 10-3 season with a loss to a powerhouse. An 11-2 season with a win over Bama or Auburn, though, would make this a season that will be remembered for 50 years.
 

cjbfbp said:
Michigan v. Alabama is a big name matchup and would seem to be a no-brainer for them (although one projection listed Iowa against Alabama).
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To me, it is a very simple matter: will the Big Ten wiggle around in their wish-washy language by allowing the Citrus to have a repeat without having first met the five team diversity requirement, or will they actually enforce that language? I don't trust them to do anything other than what their biggest money tells them to do, and that is to let Michigan go.

If they did somehow decide to enforce it, then Iowa would be the logical choice of top-ranked teams that haven't been there in the previous five seasons that will be available at that point.
 

Michigan can have the Citrus and Alabama. I’d rather have the Outback. I’ll go eat there as a toast.
 




The below is what I want to happen. I do think it is one of a few "likely" scenarios, in that it is not some 0.1% or 1% chance type of scenario. But I'm not at all certain that it is the most likely scenario, or even close. It could well end up not being what happens.

Final CFP ranking:
1 Ohio St
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Oklahoma

5 Baylor
6 Georgia
7 Penn St
8 Oregon
9 Florida

10 Wisconsin
11/12 Auburn or Alabama

13 Utah

14 and below (same order as current 14 and below, except Cincy moves down, maybe out, and Virginia moves somewhere, maybe out, meaningless teams replace in the low end if needed, maybe Indiana sneaks in at #25?)


NY6 Bowls:
CFP - Ohio St vs Oklahoma
CFP - LSU vs Clemson
Rose - Penn St vs Oregon
Sugar - Baylor vs Georgia
Orange - Florida vs Virginia
Cotton - Wisconsin vs Memphis

Other top Big Ten bowls:
Citrus - Michigan vs Alabama or Auburn
Outback - Minnesota vs Alabama or Auburn
Holiday - Iowa vs USC
Gator - Indiana vs Tennessee


Notes:
- the CFP order of #5-#9 doesn't really matter. All those teams are guaranteed to go to their respective contract bowls, this year.
- the Citrus bowl technically has the top pick of SEC, so if the order stayed with Auburn above Alabama, then Auburn would go and Alabama would fall to the Outback. But the allure of ratings for Michigan vs Alabama might be enough? Might be pretty dang hard for the committee to justify the one spot jump when neither team played, though?
- it basically HAS to be the Outback for us. Yes sure, the Citrus *should* be in play for us, or at the least, it should be no less in play for us than Michigan, but assuming that the Citrus is allowed to select either us or Michigan, I don't see why they wouldn't take Michigan. So if that works out, we're the only top-ranked team that the Outback can take. They pretty much have to take us.
- I think the Holiday would get the next selection, and it should be Iowa. They haven't been. The PAC #2 (Utah) would go to the Alamo bowl vs Okla State, then USC is the PAC's next best team
- Taking a guess that Indiana would be considered the #7 Big Ten team?
- as far as Virginia goes ... I could actually see them moving UP! Why? Because it doesn't matter. They're forced to be selected by the Orange Bowl, so why not give that gave the best billing it can have? They can argue that Clemson was a very difficult team and they fought hard, or whatever BS they want to use.
 

This thread has provided some prime examples of the mindset Fleck talks about needing to change in our fanbase.

Anyone scared of the prospect of playing Alabama or Auburn because we might lose is exactly what needs to change. If we want to see the program get to the point where it can compete with the best of the best then we should want those opportunities to go out and prove ourselves not fear them.

Are there some that really think there would be a massive difference in how this season is perceived based on the following scenarios:

10-3 - bowl loss to top 12 team in the country. 3 loses total all against ranked teams
11-2 - bowl win over unranked team

Of course the flip side to both those scenarios

11-2 - with a bowl win over a top 12 team in the country
10-3 - with a bowl loss to an unranked team

Call me crazy, but I would rather tee it up against an Alabama or Auburn and see what happens. If we lose we lose. I would be willing to bet the vast majority of players and coaches feel the same way.
 



MNVCGUY said:
This thread has provided some prime examples of the mindset Fleck talks about needing to change in our fanbase.

Anyone scared of the prospect of playing Alabama or Auburn because we might lose is exactly what needs to change. If we want to see the program get to the point where it can compete with the best of the best then we should want those opportunities to go out and prove ourselves not fear them.

Call me crazy, but I would rather tee it up against an Alabama or Auburn and see what happens. If we lose we lose. I would be willing to bet the vast majority of players and coaches feel the same way.
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Agree 100%. I hope we don't have players or coaches that fear playing good competition. I suspect some of the posters here that are afraid never played competitive sports.
 


What would make the most sense:

CFP: OSU
Rose: Wisc
Cotton: PSU
Citrus: Iowa
Outback: MN
Holiday: Mich
Gator: IU
Redbox: Illinois
Pinstripe: MSU

This has every team playing in a bowl they've not had this contract cycle, AFAIK. It's the most elegant solution by far. That said, I'm still guessing it's Mich to Citrus against Bama for those TV ratings. Can you imagine the hype train: "It's the OTHER NY6 bowl!"
 

Panthadad2 said:
I likes me an Outbook Center-cut Sirloin (aka Outback Special). Simple and affordable but on the money every time.
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Those Aussies know how to make a steak! Crikey!
 

amk8930 said:
I thought Minnesota had to request more tickets since they sold out of their allotment or something? Wasn’t there more Minnesota fans than Missouri too? Sounds like a lame duck excuse.
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They did. That’s a BS reason, and no one is saying that. I tried to get tickets and it was really challenging, unless you really wanted to pay a LOT. The b10 orders up the teams for the bowls anyway I believe
 

MNVCGUY said:
This thread has provided some prime examples of the mindset Fleck talks about needing to change in our fanbase.

Anyone scared of the prospect of playing Alabama or Auburn because we might lose is exactly what needs to change. If we want to see the program get to the point where it can compete with the best of the best then we should want those opportunities to go out and prove ourselves not fear them.
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Uh....NO! That might be the right mind set for the players but as fans we can wish for anything we want. We're not in the same league as Alabama. They are scary good on offense and would run our defense ragged all game long. Their backup QB's numbers are almost as good as their starter's and the backup appears to be a little more mobile.

Auburn will be a far tough enough matchup. They have a very good defense but we've faced 3 teams with defenses as good or better (PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin). In terms of offense, they are similar to us in terms of Total Offense but our passing efficiency is far higher. If we can contain their QB and overall running game, we have a fair shot at winning the game.
 

OldBob53 said:
Alabama is a different animal, the elite of the elite. They are a few points away from a perfect record Again. I just don't want a Big loss in a bowl game as that would be deflating for the program.
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Absolutely correct. A big loss in a bowl game would certain be deflating for the program. Not sure how it would ever recover. ????
 

amk8930 said:
I thought Minnesota had to request more tickets since they sold out of their allotment or something? Wasn’t there more Minnesota fans than Missouri too? Sounds like a lame duck excuse.
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There WERE more Minnesota fans at the game than Mizzou. From Chip's write-up the next day:

"Playing on New Year’s Day was a nice reward and a tangible sign of progress. Their fans traveled in large numbers to celebrate the occasion. Five decades was a long wait."

From Joe Christianson's write-up:

"ORLANDO - The dark blue seats at the remodeled Citrus Bowl were covered with people wearing maroon and gold Thursday, as about 15,000 Gophers fans proudly assembled in 72-degree comfort for the team’s first New Year’s Day bowl game since 1962."

My recollection is that Minnesota showed well for that game.
 

the argument seems to come down to this choice:
is it 'better' for the program in terms of perception if the Gophers
1. lose to a big-time program (Bama, Auburn) or
2. beat a 'lesser' program (Tennessee).

Obviously, if the Gophers play a Bama or Auburn and win, that is the best possible scenario. I'm not saying it's impossible - but coming off the loss to WI, I would be very nervous about facing a (on paper) better team than WI in a bowl game.

But, for the sake of the argument, if we stipulate that the Gophers would lose to Bama or Auburn, then I think it comes down to this - margin of victory/loss.

If the Gophers lose to Bama or Auburn by 7 points or less, I can live with that. Then, the perception is that the Gophers can play with the Big Boys. But, if they would lose by 20+ points, then the last mental image of the season is the Gophers getting run off the field. I do not want the last game of the season to be a bad loss, coming on the heels of a bad loss against WI.

So, given the choice, I would take a win over Tennessee over a bad loss to a Bama or an Auburn.
 

stocker08 said:
Michigan is not ineligible for the Outback Bowl. They played there two years ago and then....like seven years ago. Iowa played there last year so they are ineligible.



It really doesn't matter much. The Citrus and the Outback Bowl are basically equals. I believe they trade off taking turns as the third bowl in the Big Ten pecking order. Not to mention that they are both New Years Day bowls that are on at the same time.

Only difference is that the Citrus Bowl is on ABC while the Outback Bowl is on ESPN. So viewership would be quite a bit higher for the Citrus Bowl and depending on if Alabama sneaks into the NY6 bowls....it's possible that Auburn goes to the Citrus and either Tennessee or Texas A&M falls to the Outback.

Those are reasons why it would be better to go to the Citrus Bowl. However.....if both Auburn and Alabama are available for the Citrus/Outback Bowl.....either could go to either bowl......especially since Auburn beat Alabama head-to-head. And we've recently played in the Citrus Bowl...but I don't believe we've ever played in the Outback Bowl. Anyways...give me Alabama or Auburn in either and I'll be happy.
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Iowa and Michigan cannot go to the Outback Bowl
stocker08 said:
Michigan is not ineligible for the Outback Bowl. They played there two years ago and then....like seven years ago. Iowa played there last year so they are ineligible.



It really doesn't matter much. The Citrus and the Outback Bowl are basically equals. I believe they trade off taking turns as the third bowl in the Big Ten pecking order. Not to mention that they are both New Years Day bowls that are on at the same time.

Only difference is that the Citrus Bowl is on ABC while the Outback Bowl is on ESPN. So viewership would be quite a bit higher for the Citrus Bowl and depending on if Alabama sneaks into the NY6 bowls....it's possible that Auburn goes to the Citrus and either Tennessee or Texas A&M falls to the Outback.

Those are reasons why it would be better to go to the Citrus Bowl. However.....if both Auburn and Alabama are available for the Citrus/Outback Bowl.....either could go to either bowl......especially since Auburn beat Alabama head-to-head. And we've recently played in the Citrus Bowl...but I don't believe we've ever played in the Outback Bowl. Anyways...give me Alabama or Auburn in either and I'll be happy.
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Michigan is ineligible. The current Outback Bowl contract calls for 5 different teams in 6 years with only one repeat allowed. This is the last year of the contract. Wisconsin, NW, Michigan have been there during that span and Iowa went twice (repeat team).
 

short ornery norwegian said:
the argument seems to come down to this choice:
is it 'better' for the program in terms of perception if the Gophers
1. lose to a big-time program (Bama, Auburn) or
2. beat a 'lesser' program (Tennessee).

But, for the sake of the argument, if we stipulate that the Gophers would lose to Bama or Auburn, then I think it comes down to this - margin of victory/loss.
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Two things:

1) I don't think we will have the option of facing Tennessee (or Texas A&M or Kentucky).

2) You speak of Alabama and Auburn like they are interchangeable. Despite Auburn's recent victory, I don't believe that they are (unless a bunch of players sit out for Alabama). Alabama has racked up 500 or more yards in 9 of their 12 games this season.
 

Minnesota playing Alabama or Auburn. Big Story.

Minnesota playing Tennessee. Cute story.
 

cjbfbp said:
Two things:

1) I don't think we will have the option of facing Tennessee (or Texas A&M or Kentucky).

2) You speak of Alabama and Auburn like they are interchangeable. Despite Auburn's recent victory, I don't believe that they are (unless a bunch of players sit out for Alabama). Alabama has racked up 500 or more yards in 9 of their 12 games this season.
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Some of those 9 games were against decent opponents.
 

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