All Things 2024 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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MplsGopher said:
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You can't have it both ways, Hock. Defensive players have to be able to hit you somewhere. Where I'm sure we'll end up going is "no high hits", "no low hits", and a ton of flags on defensive players that don't manage to hit a moving target within a 12" zone at the mid-section, all while not dropping their head and managing to hit with their shoulder and not touching their helmet to the player.
 

forever a gopher said:
You can't have it both ways, Hock. Defensive players have to be able to hit you somewhere. Where I'm sure we'll end up going is "no high hits", "no low hits", and a ton of flags on defensive players that don't manage to hit a moving target within a 12" zone at the mid-section, all while not dropping their head and managing to hit with their shoulder and not touching their helmet to the player.
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Why is it that hard to have a “tackle strike zone” between the chest down and mid-thigh up?

Tackling at the knees or lower has to go.

Just because defensive secondary are little b**ches who are scared of getting run over by big bodies … tough s**t. That’s an integral part of the strategy of the game, body type matchups.
 



Is there any chance in hell that in 2024 a guy like Nix is gonna beat out Darnold?

I don’t see why. Nix to me is the same thing as Rattler: maybe a half-step up from Mond.


Just take the two best defense available with both firsts.

Maybe Darnold pulls a Keenum. Maybe not but then we can swing for the fence next year in a much better spot in the draft.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I hope it's true but much of the steam has come from Florio speculating.
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JimmyJamesMD said:
I take what Florio says with a grain of salt. He's a big Vikings rube. Feels like he's trying to wish it into existence.
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There could be something to this though. Listening to Michael Lombardi, the former GM, and he equated the difference between #8 and #11 as somewhere around a 3rd round pick; said the Falcons would buy off on that punishment in a second if they only had to give up that draft value, without even giving up an actual pick.

Hey, we can keep our fingers crossed, right?
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
There could be something to this though. Listening to Michael Lombardi, the former GM, and he equated the difference between #8 and #11 as somewhere around a 3rd round pick; said the Falcons would buy off on that punishment in a second if they only had to give up that draft value, without even giving up an actual pick.

Hey, we can keep our fingers crossed, right?
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100% I think it's possible.
 



This is entirely based on a slip of tongue from Cousins??

Watch this:

Kirk “Last month, I was careless with my words during an introductory press conference, in which I seemed to imply that misconduct had occurred. That is not true. [clarifying blah blah about what “really” happened] I want to apologize to everyone, including both the Vikings and Falcons organizations as well as the NFL for the trouble my misstatement last month has caused. Thank you.”

*poof*

Is there actual proof?? Or is this just more rube-bait?
 

Alec Lewis of The Athletic has a long article up about NFL draft strategies. It's based on academic studies by two college professors, Richard Thaler and Cade Massey. Thaler has won the Nobel Prize in economics.

according to Thaler and Massey,

Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.

Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.

Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.

Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.

But, in his article, Lewis notes that trading down for more picks has not always worked out. One of the examples he cites is Rick Spielman who completed 37 draft-pick trades between 2011 and 2020, with "mixed" results.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Alec Lewis of The Athletic has a long article up about NFL draft strategies. It's based on academic studies by two college professors, Richard Thaler and Cade Massey. Thaler has won the Nobel Prize in economics.

according to Thaler and Massey,

Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.

Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.

Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.

Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.

But, in his article, Lewis notes that trading down for more picks has not always worked out. One of the examples he cites is Rick Spielman who completed 37 draft-pick trades between 2011 and 2020, with "mixed" results.
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While I agree on paper, the problem with statistical-based logic like this is that the payoff on essentially “winning the lottery” is incredible and can’t really be correctly valued by such models.

That doesn’t in of itself justify a pure “keep pulling the slot machine arm until something good happens” mentality either.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Alec Lewis of The Athletic has a long article up about NFL draft strategies. It's based on academic studies by two college professors, Richard Thaler and Cade Massey. Thaler has won the Nobel Prize in economics.

according to Thaler and Massey,

Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.

Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.

Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.

Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.

But, in his article, Lewis notes that trading down for more picks has not always worked out. One of the examples he cites is Rick Spielman who completed 37 draft-pick trades between 2011 and 2020, with "mixed" results.
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The amount of 5-7 Round draft picks that Spielman could've acquired for 11 and 23 is terrifying to contemplate.
 



Per Shama:

Superstar receiver Justin Jefferson didn’t attend yesterday’s first voluntary offseason workout program. That’s not unexpected from an uber talent who is in a year of contract talks.

O’Connell is unsure when Jefferson might participate in workouts, with volunteer days now and mandatory activities ahead. “… I know I’ve had a lot of great dialogue with Justin throughout even the early part of this offseason and leading up. So, you know, my hope is we can get him around the team.

“He’s obviously such a special player, but it goes beyond that. Especially this time of year because of just the energy and the flat-out way he comes in when he’s in this building and he goes to work and how his teammates respond to him.

“So, I want him here as much as we can have him, but also understand that there are a lot of factors involved. And like I said, there’s nobody I love having more around on a daily basis, just because of how he elevates others. Truly a special, special player.”


Skol Vikes!!
 



short ornery norwegian said:
in my book, 7th round picks are really no different than undrafted free agents. they have roughly the same chance of becoming a productive player.
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Essentially, yes in that respect anyway. But the primary difference is, the undrafted FA can sign with any team he wants and the team that drafted the 7th rounder owns his rights. You don't have to compete with the other 31 teams in the league for a 7th round pick
 

short ornery norwegian said:
in my book, 7th round picks are really no different than undrafted free agents. they have roughly the same chance of becoming a productive player.
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It's definitely better for the player to not get drafted that late. Become a free agent and sign where you want to (assuming the other team wants you).
 

Heard some interesting discussion about the draft on the VSiN Lombardi show today. Some obvious, some not so obvious.

The obvious, that almost everything that's coming out right now about players moving up and moving down draft boards is coming from the agents. Virtually 100% agents drumming up interest in their clients.

The not so obvious, that the REAL "leaks" are going to come out next Wednesday and Thursday, 12-18 hours before the draft; that's when the real leaks come out apparently, which kinda makes sense.

I'm not even sure it's a lock that 4 QBs are going to go in the top 4 or 5 of the draft. And I think an OL like Joe Alt or even Fualaga could get drafted top 5, easily; I sprinkled a few bucks on both, the odds are SUPER long on an OL other than Alt to go really high, definitely good value.
 

was reading an article in The Athletic that ranked every NFL team heading into the draft. how was the ranking done? =

The model takes into account an array of metrics and tries to put a “value” on every player. This value is essentially how many points above average a player brings to his team in a typical NFL game. Positional value weighs heavily when calculating that total. So the best running back or linebacker in the league will not be worth as much as the best wide receiver or edge rusher. After summing up all the values, each team was ranked 1-32. Here’s how the rosters stack up entering the draft.
the top 5:
1. 49ers
2. KC Chiefs
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Philadelphia Eagles

so where do the Vikings come in.........,?

23. Minnesota Vikings​

We all know the Vikings are looking to upgrade at QB after losing Cousins to Atlanta, but the rest of the offense is in great shape. The defense needs some work, especially on the interior DL and CB. DC Brian Flores is a great defensive-mind but the Vikings can make his job easier by acquiring more talent on defense.
 






JimmyJamesMD said:
florio thinks pick swap is a possibility.

If there was compensation Im thinking 3rd rounder at best
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The #8/#11 pick swap would be about just that, a 3rd round value.

The next couple of days is definitely possible, if I recall, the Eagles/Cardinals tampering ruling for HC Gannon was handed down just before the draft last year. The NFL has made it clear they are taking this more and more serious, this could work out fairly well for the Vikings
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
The #8/#11 pick swap would be about just that, a 3rd round value.

The next couple of days is definitely possible, if I recall, the Eagles/Cardinals tampering ruling for HC Gannon was handed down just before the draft last year. The NFL has made it clear they are taking this more and more serious, this could work out fairly well for the Vikings
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I have to wonder if this was only brought to light by Cousins mentioning it at the press conference.
 



GophersInIowa said:
I have to wonder if this was only brought to light by Cousins mentioning it at the press conference.
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It's possible, but in at least one reporting of this, there was mention of more contact than just Cousins talking with the Falcons training staff, which is what was in the presser. I've only seen that in one place so I don't know if it's true, but I thought I saw there were multiple contacts made between Cousins and the Falcons. That would make things quite a bit worse I would think.

EDIT: Last year, the Eagles and Cardinals swapped 3rd rounders for the "tampering" by the Cardinals in pursuing Gannon for HC, the Eagles moving up 28 spots in the 3rd. That's not small, and this feels more egregious with the Cousins/Falcons scenario than what happened last year.
 

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