All Things 2024 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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The Vikings have too many holes and too few draft choices over the next two years. Given their sparse draft pick situation, I'd prefer they play it strategically instead of shooting for a moon that is statistically unlikely to be there.
#11: Turner
#23: Nix

If Nix isn't the answer they will have plenty of cap space plus a high draft pick to use on a potential franchise QB next year.
 

jamiche said:
The Vikings have too many holes and too few draft choices over the next two years. Given their sparse draft pick situation, I'd prefer they play it strategically instead of shooting for a moon that is statistically unlikely to be there.
#11: Turner
#23: Nix

If Nix isn't the answer they will have plenty of cap space plus a high draft pick to use on a potential franchise QB next year.
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Qb is thin in next years draft and cap space isn't going to get you a top qb.

Go for it this year.
 

MplsGopher said:
Thanks @swede2 for checking into that and sharing what you found.

I'm guessing your stats largely cover this, but what I'm interested is roughly like this:

- last X years (relevant timeframe, so maybe 15)
- team traded major assets (by some agreed upon definition) to "buy their way into" the top 5 (ie, they didn't organically earn a top 5 spot)
- used that to pick a QB (are their even any instances of doing that and then not picking a QB??)
- the QB turned into a "successful franchise QB" (again relying on some agreed upon definitions of success and what being a franchise QB is)


With those definitions (specifically the top 5 part and the last 15 years part), I wouldn't be surprised if two things are true: 1) there are zero instances where it worked out (top 5 means Mahomes is not included here), and 2) there are actually fairly few instances of this. Point 2 simply being because it costs so damn much to do.


Do the Vikings -- the Vikings, up there with the most unlucky franchises in the NFL -- really think they're going to be the ones to buck the trend???
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Trading up is to get a top 5 is, with the exception of Bartkowski, a fairly new phenomenon. There isn't an example of a QB in this scenario where most, if any, would agree that giving up two first round picks, or more, was worth. Eventually it will happen that a team trades up and hits the jackpot, but the cynic in me agrees, it won't happen to this Minnesota Vikings franchise.

The data would suggest that the Vikings would be more likely to get there guy with the 23rd they just acquired then by trading into the top 10.
 

Big hole in the data: Eli Manning. Giants traded the no. 4 pick and a future 1st and change to move up to no. 1. But the Giants were already in the Top 5. He was no Peyton but won a couple of rings.
 

swede2 said:
Trading up is to get a top 5 is, with the exception of Bartkowski, a fairly new phenomenon. There isn't an example of a QB in this scenario where most, if any, would agree that giving up two first round picks, or more, was worth. Eventually it will happen that a team trades up and hits the jackpot, but the cynic in me agrees, it won't happen to this Minnesota Vikings franchise.

The data would suggest that the Vikings would be more likely to get there guy with the 23rd they just acquired then by trading into the top 10.
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Right. We are completely on the same page.

But the "common sense NFL fan" in us all says that they didn't trade for the 23rd pick, with already having the 11th pick, not to try to put a package together to move up. Only question is how far up and what else they're willing to throw into the deal.

I hate it, but everyone is saying it as if KAM put it on a billboard somewhere. I hope they don't do it. I'd rather take two defensive guys to be quite honest.
 



I just can't understand (other than if it's just trolling, so that would be kg) how people can't see it coming that 2024 QB first round class is going to end up exactly like 2021 QB first round class.

Five drafted, and maybe one decent starter.
 





MplsGopher said:
I just can't understand (other than if it's just trolling, so that would be kg) how people can't see it coming that 2024 QB first round class is going to end up exactly like 2021 QB first round class.

Five drafted, and maybe one decent starter.
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How could you possibly know this?
 

MplsGopher said:
Thanks @swede2 for checking into that and sharing what you found.

I'm guessing your stats largely cover this, but what I'm interested is roughly like this:

- last X years (relevant timeframe, so maybe 15)
- team traded major assets (by some agreed upon definition) to "buy their way into" the top 5 (ie, they didn't organically earn a top 5 spot)
- used that to pick a QB (are their even any instances of doing that and then not picking a QB??)
- the QB turned into a "successful franchise QB" (again relying on some agreed upon definitions of success and what being a franchise QB is)


With those definitions (specifically the top 5 part and the last 15 years part), I wouldn't be surprised if two things are true: 1) there are zero instances where it worked out (top 5 means Mahomes is not included here), and 2) there are actually fairly few instances of this. Point 2 simply being because it costs so damn much to do.


Do the Vikings -- the Vikings, up there with the most unlucky franchises in the NFL -- really think they're going to be the ones to buck the trend???
Click to expand...
Sounds like you have no faith that the Wilfs hired the appropriate decision makers to identify/draft/develop QB talent.
 


jamiche said:
The Vikings have too many holes and too few draft choices over the next two years. Given their sparse draft pick situation, I'd prefer they play it strategically instead of shooting for a moon that is statistically unlikely to be there.
#11: Turner
#23: Nix

If Nix isn't the answer they will have plenty of cap space plus a high draft pick to use on a potential franchise QB next year.
Click to expand...
I’d take Murphy & Pennix Jr. in your scenario; harder to find elite DTs than edge rushers (IMO) and we just acquired two via FA as well. I simply like Pennix vs. Nix. They can only do this, from my perspective if they have Nix and/or Pennix on the same level with McCarthy - assuming he’s 4 rated.

I also agree and see the logic of going all in to get your franchise QB in the top 2-4 picks as well.

It’s an interesting dichotomy and I wish the draft was next weekend.
 



so, if I'm reading this right, the Bears sent Justin Fields to the Steelers for -------
a conditional 6th round pick that could go as high as a 4th round pick if Fields plays 51% of the snaps on offense.

damn. that guy's value dropped like a meme stock.
 

jamiche said:
The Vikings have too many holes and too few draft choices over the next two years. Given their sparse draft pick situation, I'd prefer they play it strategically instead of shooting for a moon that is statistically unlikely to be there.
#11: Turner
#23: Nix

If Nix isn't the answer they will have plenty of cap space plus a high draft pick to use on a potential franchise QB next year.
Click to expand...
If the Vikes wanted Nix, they could have picked him in the second round when he’ll still be sitting there. No reason to trade up into first round. Plus, they would have attended his pro day.
 

forever a gopher said:
If the Vikes wanted Nix, they could have picked him in the second round when he’ll still be sitting there. No reason to trade up into first round. Plus, they would have attended his pro day.
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I think the pro day attendance is overrated. I can't remember the instances right now offhand but I want to say there have been a few instances in recent years where someone was drafted really high and that team didn't attend the pro day. At that point, you have most of the information you need to make an informed decision. To go along with that, Nix was one that did a fair amount of work at the combine also.
 





LakevilleBro said:
Now I think I would rather keep our two first rounders. Moving up to take a QB is a big crap shoot.
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Correct

But KAM's job is 100% on the line, with how dogs__t he and his "analytics" have drafted.

It's go big now or get fired, for him.


If I were the Wilfs, I would decree that draft picks are off limit. So if #4 is the best they can do for #11 and #23, so be it. That all but guarantees Maye is out of reach.
 


I spent 20-25 minutes of my life that I can’t get back on YouTube reviews of the various quarterbacks. My conclusion is that everybody is an expert and nobody knows anything. My conclusion after that waste of time is the same as before. The Vikings should use the two 1st rd picks on two players. As to which players, no clue.
 


LakevilleBro said:
Even if we pick a QB in round 1, if Spencer Rattler is available in the 4th round, it's a no-brainer for the Vikings.
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For a team that still has some holes, I'm not sure about that. They'll give up both 1st rounders for that 1st round QB, they don't have a 2nd, they don't have a 3rd, and they'd spend a 4th on another QB? That's a tall order.

Blackhammer said:
Maybe it’s just me but wouldn’t have made sense for the Bears to hold on to Fields into the season ?
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Everything I heard was, there's no way they could have had both Fields and Williams in the building by the time things crank up with offseason stuff. Fields has a lot of allies in the building, wouldn't be fair to Williams, and a few other reasons I can't remember.
 

jamiche said:
I spent 20-25 minutes of my life that I can’t get back on YouTube reviews of the various quarterbacks. My conclusion is that everybody is an expert and nobody knows anything. My conclusion after that waste of time is the same as before. The Vikings should use the two 1st rd picks on two players. As to which players, no clue.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't hate this either, as I actually think KOC and McCown could do some things with a guy like Sam Darnold; no, maybe not the long term franchise solution but I think if things fell right with the draft and the rest of FA, they could contend for the playoffs.

The thing I'm worried about is, if you're trading to 4th, and you have a guy you really love and it's McCarthy (as some are saying), what happens if the board changes and the first 3 are Williams, Maye and McCarthy? Not saying Daniels would be a horrible consolation prize but what if the Vikings happen to NOT be very high on whoever is left at #4?

It's risky. I think you can only trade up into #4 early (like way before the draft) if you happen to LOVE all four of those QB's. Such different players, is that possible?
 

swede2 said:
Big hole in the data: Eli Manning. Giants traded the no. 4 pick and a future 1st and change to move up to no. 1. But the Giants were already in the Top 5. He was no Peyton but won a couple of rings.
Click to expand...
The guy they traded for him was #4 pick Phillip Rivers. The Chargers used that future first round pick to draft Shawne Merriam. They Chargers also got K Nate Kaeding, that made multiple pro bowls.

I’d say the Chargers did far better.

How ironic that both QBs actually did turn out to be good. When do two in the same draft turn out as well as those two, other than 1983?
 

LakevilleBro said:
Even if we pick a QB in round 1, if Spencer Rattler is available in the 4th round, it's a no-brainer for the Vikings.
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Not drafting a QB in the first round would be the BiG Balls move of All Time and Ogee’s point about all the holes we have/lack of picks is a good point. There’s lots of moves available on the Vikes’ chess board - some are more realistic than others, but as a risk taker, I like betting on the long shots.

He could be the Cousins of this class 🤪
 

atsgopher said:
The guy they traded for him was #4 pick Phillip Rivers. The Chargers used that future first round pick to draft Shawne Merriam. They Chargers also got K Nate Kaeding, that made multiple pro bowls.

I’d say the Chargers did far better.

How ironic that both QBs actually did turn out to be good. When do two in the same draft turn out as well as those two, other than 1983?
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I mean I understand you're comparing the total package of individuals, but you think the Chargers did better than the team who won two Super Bowls with the guy they got?? Not only that, that guy beat the unbeatable Patriots both times, whom Rivers and the Chargers could never get past themselves.

I think the Giants clearly won, and it isn't even debatable.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
For a team that still has some holes, I'm not sure about that. They'll give up both 1st rounders for that 1st round QB, they don't have a 2nd, they don't have a 3rd, and they'd spend a 4th on another QB? That's a tall order.



Everything I heard was, there's no way they could have had both Fields and Williams in the building by the time things crank up with offseason stuff. Fields has a lot of allies in the building, wouldn't be fair to Williams, and a few other reasons I can't remember.
Click to expand...
Fair point. I was assuming that we would not trade both our picks to move up, and we would just use one 1st round pick on a QB.
 

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