All Things 2024 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

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Gary Gaetti, Al Newman, and Kent Hrbek turned an unprecedented two triple plays at Fenway Park on this date in 1990, with Tom Brunansky hitting into the first one. (The Twins still lost 1-0.)

The next night the Twins tied an AL record by turning six doubles plays in a 5-4 loss.
 

In looking up where I screwed up on the home run list, I was fairly surprised to see Gaetti is 87th all-time in home runs with 360.

Also of note, I highly doubt there will ever be another 300 game winner in my lifetime and seeing someone get to 3000 hits doesn't feel like a very safe bet either, so the other big milestone is the 500 home run club. Stanton is at 420 (at 34 years old). He could get there. Judge is at 291 (32 years old), and Harper is at 327 at 31 years old. Other than that, I don't see any likely candidates.
 
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Breakin' The Plane said:
In looking up where I screwed up on the home run list, I was fairly surprised to see Gaetti is 87th all-time in home runs with 360.

Also of note, I highly doubt there will ever be another 300 game winner in my lifetime and seeing someone get to 3000 hits doesn't feel like a very same bet either, so the other big milestone is the 500 home run club. Stanton is at 420 (at 34 years old). He could get there. Judge is at 291 (32 years old), and Harper is at 327 at 31 years old. Other than that, I don't see any likely candidates.
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300 wins won't happen again I don't think. 3000 hits is more likely, but would still be hard. Has to be a guy like Arraez that starts in the MLB at a young age. Arraez would have to average a bit over 200 hits per year for 10 more seasons to get to 3000.

Trout would have been a legit contender to get to 600 HR if he had stayed healthy. He's at 378 even with all the injuries. A guy like Soto might have a shot at 500 one day. He started at 19 years old so got an early start.
 
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I should have looked up the hit leaders first. Freeman and Altuve have shots to get to 3000. Freeman will need about 700 more after this season, Altuve around 750. If either plays four more seasons and remain relatively healthy, they can get to it. They're both 34 years old.

Machado will need about 1100 more after this season but he just turned 32.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
OK - day 3 of the draft for the Twins - (we like tall pitchers....)

round 11 - Michael Carpenter - LH Pitcher - Madison Area Technical College, WI (a juco) - 6'1", 195 lbs -- at his Juco went 10-2 with 1.03ERA - 111K in 78 IP

rnd 12 - Christian Becerra - RH P - Cal - 6'1", 170lbs - mostly worked out of 'pen - this year at Cal went 4-1 w/3.68 ERA - 51 IP, 57 K - 14 BB

rnd 13 - Xavier Kolhosser - RH P - St. John's (NY) - 6'5", 195 lbs - this year went 9-2 w/3.43 ERA, 76 IP, 51 K, 26 BB

rnd 14 - Jacob Kisting - RH P - Bradley Univ. - 6'5", 220 lbs - this year went 1-1 w/ 6.19 ERA, 16 IP, 15 K, 6 BB - did better in summer-league play

rnd 15 - Cole Peschl - RH P - Campbell U. (NC) - 6'1", 215 lbs - this year 3-3, 5.48 ERA, 69 IP, 83 K, 19 BB

rnd 16 - Aidan Haugh - RH P - North Carolina - 6'6", 210 lbs - was a juco, '24 1st season at N. Carolina - appeared in 22 games, 8 as a starter - 4-3, 4.83 ERA, 54 IP, 61 K, 27 BB

rnd 17 - Jay Thomason - 3B - Bat L/Throw R - Air Force - 6'1", 200 lbs - this season hit .358/.452/.763 (1.215 OPS) - 21 HR, 55 RBI,

rnd 18 - Michael Ross - RH P - Samford Univ. - 6'2", 205 lbs - this year 13-0, 3.27 ERA, 96 IP, 88 K, 21 BB

rnd 19 - Logan Whitaker - RH P - NC State - 6'6", 220 lbs - this year 3-1, 5.49 ERA, 59 IP, 69 K, 22 BB (appeared in 13 gms, 9 as a starter)

rnd 20 - Merit Jones - RH P - Utah - 6'4", 200 lbs (full name is Christian Merit Jones) - this year 3-5, 5.66 ERA, 68 IP, 68 K, 33 BB
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Interesting note on Zebby (what a great name) Matthew’s and how far he’s come. Easier for those tall hurlers to add velocity, like Festa-


Matthews was a soft-tossing control artist when the Twins took him in the eighth round out of Western Carolina in 2022. Now the 6-foot-5 right-hander tops out at 98 mph as part of a good four-pitch mix, and he hasn’t needed to sacrifice pinpoint control. Another developmental success story, Matthews is a step from the majors after a Triple-A promotion to start the second half.
 

the Twins do seem to have a type when it comes to drafting pitchers. land bigger guys with decent control and go to work to bump up the velocity.

if they can just keep them healthy. don't know if it's just bad luck or something the Twins developmental people are doing, but so many of their top pitching prospects keep getting hurt. they can't convert them all to relievers. some of them have to stick as starters.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
the Twins do seem to have a type when it comes to drafting pitchers. land bigger guys with decent control and go to work to bump up the velocity.

if they can just keep them healthy. don't know if it's just bad luck or something the Twins developmental people are doing, but so many of their top pitching prospects keep getting hurt. they can't convert them all to relievers. some of them have to stick as starters.
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3/5 of their rotation was developed in part by our minor leagues; with Ober being a draft pick.

I wonder if the injuries experienced by some of our draft picks (pitchers) are at a higher rate than other organizations. It’s human nature/bias to think one has gotten the short end of the stick

I mentioned it in previous threads, but for most teams, the majority of their rotation isn’t home grown, it’s acquired via trades ( including minor leaguers developed on the farm) or via free agency. Teams like the Rays or Guards are outliers; and the article which I’m referring regarding this info on teams’ rotations, was published a few years ago, so not even I, Art Linklatter, can provide a link.
 
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this is interesting (at least to me)

Austin Mock in The Athletic uses a system to predict which teams have the highest odds of making the playoffs. here's what he does:

My MLB model creates a projection for every player which can then be combined into a team rating. From there, I’m able to simulate every game of the regular season and playoffs to see how often every team wins the World Series. This process runs 100,000 times to get a large enough sample to most accurately reflect the expected results. I will note that I do not project any trades before they’re official.

for the Twins - he projects them to finish the season with 89.5 wins, which would be the 6th most in MLB and 3rd-most in the AL.

Odds of making the playoffs - 84.2%
odds of winning the division - 47.1% (Guardians at 41.1%)
odds of making it to the World Series - 14.3% (5th-highest in MLB)
odds of winning the World Series - 6.8% (6th-highest behind Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles and Braves)
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
In looking up where I screwed up on the home run list, I was fairly surprised to see Gaetti is 87th all-time in home runs with 360.

Also of note, I highly doubt there will ever be another 300 game winner in my lifetime and seeing someone get to 3000 hits doesn't feel like a very safe bet either, so the other big milestone is the 500 home run club. Stanton is at 420 (at 34 years old). He could get there. Judge is at 291 (32 years old), and Harper is at 327 at 31 years old. Other than that, I don't see any likely candidates.
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Another 300-game winner isn't likely, but it's at least worth keeping an eye on Verlander. He's sitting at 260 right now, so if he played another 3 seasons after this one, and averaged around 12-13 wins per (assuming he picks up another handful yet this season), he would get there. He would be 44 in that season, an age met, and sometimes easily surpassed, by a number of great pitchers in history.

But if he can't/doesn't want to hang on and get there, it probably will never happen again. Kershaw has 210 and is only 36, but he kind of feels cooked already and I wouldn't be surprised if he retired after this season. Surprisingly, there are only 15 active players with 100 wins, and almost all are in their mid- to late-30s.
 





Gopher_In_NYC said:
Name the 6 active MLB players guaranteed to be in the Hall of Fame when they retire (not my creation, but it made sense to me FWIW) -

youtube.com

Active players who are guaranteed to make the Hall of Fame #mlb #baseball #trivia

Buy tickets NOW for our All-Star event on Tuesday, July 16th in Dallas, Texas! https://shop.jomboymedia.com/products/jomboy-media-all-star-party-dallasSubscr...
youtube.com youtube.com
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Off the top of my head: Trout, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Freeman, Altuve? Maybe Betts?

Edit: Ah close, the one guy I missed I didn't consider as still active. Forgot he signed with the Blue Jays.

I feel like Altuve is pretty much a lock as well. His numbers are right there, then add in what he's done in the postseason and winning an MVP as a 2B.

Also, is Freeman one of the most underrated great players of all time? He doesn't get the notoriety of a lot of other guys, even though he's played in big markets his entire career. He just quietly continues to rake.
 
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GophersInIowa said:
Off the top of my head: Trout, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Freeman, Altuve? Maybe Betts?

Edit: Ah close, the one guy I missed I didn't consider as still active. Forgot he signed with the Blue Jays.
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What a sneaky great career he had - if he would have played on the East Coast, his mug would have been everywhere.

I whiffed on him also.
GophersInIowa said:
I feel like Altuve is pretty much a lock as well. His numbers are right there, then add in what he's done in the postseason and winning an MVP as a 2B.
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Good add and I agree.
GophersInIowa said:
Also, is Freeman one of the most underrated great players of all time? He doesn't get the notoriety of a lot of other guys, even though he's played in big markets his entire career. He just quietly continues to rake.
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Consumable pro; with such a sweet swing. Especially respect guys that also can use their 🧤 as a weapon.

He seems like a great dude too - both his parents are Canadian, so that helps.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
this is interesting (at least to me)

Austin Mock in The Athletic uses a system to predict which teams have the highest odds of making the playoffs. here's what he does:

My MLB model creates a projection for every player which can then be combined into a team rating. From there, I’m able to simulate every game of the regular season and playoffs to see how often every team wins the World Series. This process runs 100,000 times to get a large enough sample to most accurately reflect the expected results. I will note that I do not project any trades before they’re official.

for the Twins - he projects them to finish the season with 89.5 wins, which would be the 6th most in MLB and 3rd-most in the AL.

Odds of making the playoffs - 84.2%
odds of winning the division - 47.1% (Guardians at 41.1%)
odds of making it to the World Series - 14.3% (5th-highest in MLB)
odds of winning the World Series - 6.8% (6th-highest behind Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles and Braves)
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I’m doubling down - thanks Jennifer Coolidge for showing me the way.

We win the Central by 3+ games and make it to the ALCS where we lose to those Baby Birdies from BMore. Baldelli is outed being a cyborg, so he receives zero credit for 4 👑 in 6 years.

I think Pablo goes on an epic run in the second half, he’s to good not to bounce back and the bats continue to sizzle.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Name the 6 active MLB players guaranteed to be in the Hall of Fame when they retire (not my creation, but it made sense to me FWIW) -

youtube.com

Active players who are guaranteed to make the Hall of Fame #mlb #baseball #trivia

Buy tickets NOW for our All-Star event on Tuesday, July 16th in Dallas, Texas! https://shop.jomboymedia.com/products/jomboy-media-all-star-party-dallasSubscr...
youtube.com youtube.com
Click to expand...

Trout, Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Stanton, Altuve? Judge, Ohtani, Harper in the wings?

Edit: I also missed on Freeman and Votto. I’m a big fan of Votto, but looking at his overall numbers, he seems borderline to me. Freeman seems more assured, as he’s still putting up numbers and you can foresee two-three solid seasons ahead for him.
 
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coolhandgopher said:
Trout, Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Stanton, Altuve? Judge, Ohtani, Harper in the wings?

Edit: I also missed on Freeman and Votto. I’m a big fan of Votto, but looking at his overall numbers, he seems borderline to me.
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Rolen got in and I would put him and Votto on the same level.

Back in the day, I wouldn’t have let either of them in, but times have changed and it is a subjective thing, so if someone has a strong B+/A- career, I say let them in at this point in my travels.


coolhandgopher said:
Freeman seems more assured, as he’s still putting up numbers and you can foresee two-three solid seasons ahead for him.
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Gopher_In_NYC said:
What a sneaky great career he had - if he would have played on the East Coast, his mug would have been everywhere.

I whiffed on him also.

Good add and I agree.

Consumable pro; with such a sweet swing. Especially respect guys that also can use their 🧤 as a weapon.

He seems like a great dude too - both his parents are Canadian, so that helps.
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It's fun looking through the all-time leader lists in different categories. In doing so, noticed two guys that are very underrated IMO are Lance Berkman and Carlos Delgado. Berkman has the 31st highest OPS of all-time. Delgado is 44th. Delgado has 31st highest SLG of all-time, Berkman at 41st.

Not saying they deserve to be in the Hall but both guys didn't even make it past the first ballot. Crazy.
 

GophersInIowa said:
It's fun looking through the all-time leader lists in different categories. In doing so, noticed two guys that are very underrated IMO are Lance Berkman and Carlos Delgado. Berkman has the 31st highest OPS of all-time. Delgado is 44th. Delgado has 31st highest SLG of all-time, Berkman at 41st.

Not saying they deserve to be in the Hall but both guys didn't even make it past the first ballot. Crazy.
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Bergman always reminded me of a guy who looked like he could be on your softball team; semi-portly, but athletic.

Delgado was such a great left hand stick.

I think that voters have become much less stringent in their approach in the recent past than they were, unfortunately, when they were on the ballot.
 
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I legit cried watching this live. Couldn’t have scripted the day much better.

 

on the Hall of Fame, I am one of those grumpy old guys. I think the Hall should be reserved for the truly great players - in today's parlance "generational" talent. there are players in the Hall who - in my opinion - really don't belong - IF you are comparing them to Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Koufax, Gibson, etc.

at the same time, I understand that the game has changed - and it's harder to compare stats to players of earlier eras. the traditional 'counting' stats are less important in today's game.

so for me, the question is one of standards. what is the standard for a Hall of Fame player, and should those standards change over time to reflect changes in how the game is played and evaluated?

but in the end, my personal opinion is that, if there is a question on whether someone belongs in the Hall of Fame, my choice would be to err on the side of caution. I would rather keep a borderline player out of the Hall as opposed to letting a borderline player in the Hall.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
on the Hall of Fame, I am one of those grumpy old guys. I think the Hall should be reserved for the truly great players - in today's parlance "generational" talent. there are players in the Hall who - in my opinion - really don't belong - IF you are comparing them to Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Koufax, Gibson, etc.

at the same time, I understand that the game has changed - and it's harder to compare stats to players of earlier eras. the traditional 'counting' stats are less important in today's game.

so for me, the question is one of standards. what is the standard for a Hall of Fame player, and should those standards change over time to reflect changes in how the game is played and evaluated?

but in the end, my personal opinion is that, if there is a question on whether someone belongs in the Hall of Fame, my choice would be to err on the side of caution. I would rather keep a borderline player out of the Hall as opposed to letting a borderline player in the Hall.
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I think it has a lot to do with there being more teams and more players overall. Expanding globally and having better training means there is less difference between the truly great and the very good. A smaller percentage of players get into the Hall of Fame now than they used to so they are technically more selective now.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
In looking up where I screwed up on the home run list, I was fairly surprised to see Gaetti is 87th all-time in home runs with 360.

Also of note, I highly doubt there will ever be another 300 game winner in my lifetime and seeing someone get to 3000 hits doesn't feel like a very safe bet either, so the other big milestone is the 500 home run club. Stanton is at 420 (at 34 years old). He could get there. Judge is at 291 (32 years old), and Harper is at 327 at 31 years old. Other than that, I don't see any likely candidates.
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Wow. I had no idea stanton has that many. 129 ahead of judge and only 2 years older
 

I hate to bring religion into this, but the metaphor I think of when assessing HOF is Noah.

The bible says that Noah was righteous in his time. Theologians have argued about what that means. Does it mean that the bar was so low that an average man would rise above it? Looking at HOF that way, you only have contemporaries to compare each player to. A player that was great in his time should be HOF worthy, even though they have lesser numbers compared to the past.
 


GophersInIowa said:
It's fun looking through the all-time leader lists in different categories. In doing so, noticed two guys that are very underrated IMO are Lance Berkman and Carlos Delgado. Berkman has the 31st highest OPS of all-time. Delgado is 44th. Delgado has 31st highest SLG of all-time, Berkman at 41st.

Not saying they deserve to be in the Hall but both guys didn't even make it past the first ballot. Crazy.
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If there’s one player who needs a reassessment and admission to the HOF, it’s Sweet Lou Whitaker in my book. He’s smack dab in the middle of the HOF 2B’s from statistically point of view, was part of an iconic double play combo for 10+ years that included a World Series win and he’s gotten minimal support over the years, both initially (3% of the vote!) and through the veteran committee in 2020 fell well short of the needed votes. I don’t get it.
 

I think players are no longer a lock if they get to 500 HR. That is probably 600. Stanton shouldn't be in the hall if he gets to 500 IMO.

I'm on a fun adventure through the career stats leaders. How ridiculous was the steroid era? Palmeiro had a streak of 9 seasons in a row with 38+ HR and 104+ RBI yet was only an All-Star twice and never finished top 4 in MVP.
 

coolhandgopher said:
If there’s one player who needs a reassessment and admission to the HOF, it’s Sweet Lou Whitaker in my book. He’s smack dab in the middle of the HOF 2B’s from statistically point of view, was part of an iconic double play combo for 10+ years that included a World Series win and he’s gotten minimal support over the years, both initially (3% of the vote!) and through the veteran committee in 2020 fell well short of the needed votes. I don’t get it.
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He's in a similar situation that Blyleven was in. Was never great (although had a 5 year run that was near great in the mid 80s) but was very good for a long time. He's probably the second best 2B of the 80's behind Sandberg.

I think voters are influenced by those big seasons (MVPs, Cy Youngs, etc). He never had one of those. I agree he's someone that should have gotten more support at least.
 


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