For the Twins to have a chance, Gray and Ryan have to lead the starters. You can argue that a "better" team would have better pitchers as their #1 and #2 starters - but that's a moot point at this stage of the season.
Ober has only made 7 starts due to injury. Paddock was a gamble that backfired. Archer has actually pitched pretty well, but only averages 4 innings per start. Smeltzer is a Triple-A pitcher in my book. Winder has a lot of promise, but has to stay healthy. Bundy is Bundy - a 4.50 ERA with a .500 record.
So another quality starter would really help.
Maeda could potentially return sometime this year, but can't count on that to make the difference.