All Things 2021 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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forever a gopher said:
I know nothing about Klint Kubiak. But what are the chances he would be getting an OC job anywhere but here, right after his father retired? Between Zim's kid and Kubiak's kid, if I was the Wilfs, I'd sure be critical that we're not hiring the most qualified, but rather the ones with the correct last names.
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Ordinarily, I would 100% agree with this but really, the Vikings had a top-10 offense in 2020 and it was hard to find a ton of fault with the game-planning and play calling. I would guess young Kubiak will be on a short leash, for sure, but I'm okay with this; maybe not super excited, but okay with it. One thing I know for sure, continuity probably had a lot more to do with this than his last name. And I'm a fan of continuity for sure.

Bored on a Monday, had to dig up some Pro Football Focus positional rankings. Some good, some bad, some very bad.

Cousins - #9 overall QB
Jefferson and Thielen - #2 and #6 overall WR's. That's pretty damn impressive really
Dalvin Cook - Actually couldn't find an overall ranking for RB but Cook was obviously phenomenal, made it through the season, #2 rusher in the league, and great out of the backfield

and then the not so good

O-Line - #26 overall, and significantly worse at G-C-G as the Tackles were not terrible
Secondary - #23 and quite honestly, I thought this would be a lot lower

and finally...

PASS RUSH - Dead last, #32 in the NFL

They've got some work to do, for sure, and not a lot of cap room to do it. Spielman and co need to earn their money this offseason.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Ordinarily, I would 100% agree with this but really, the Vikings had a top-10 offense in 2020 and it was hard to find a ton of fault with the game-planning and play calling. I would guess young Kubiak will be on a short leash, for sure, but I'm okay with this; maybe not super excited, but okay with it. One thing I know for sure, continuity probably had a lot more to do with this than his last name. And I'm a fan of continuity for sure.

Bored on a Monday, had to dig up some Pro Football Focus positional rankings. Some good, some bad, some very bad.

Cousins - #9 overall QB
Jefferson and Thielen - #2 and #6 overall WR's. That's pretty damn impressive really
Dalvin Cook - Actually couldn't find an overall ranking for RB but Cook was obviously phenomenal, made it through the season, #2 rusher in the league, and great out of the backfield

and then the not so good

O-Line - #26 overall, and significantly worse at G-C-G as the Tackles were not terrible
Secondary - #23 and quite honestly, I thought this would be a lot lower

and finally...

PASS RUSH - Dead last, #32 in the NFL

They've got some work to do, for sure, and not a lot of cap room to do it. Spielman and co need to earn their money this offseason.
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Good digging OO. Crazy how slow our defense got, feels like overnight. Position players on offense we are set, the rest of the roster though...
 

If only they had drafted Winfield. Lucky for him they didn't.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Ordinarily, I would 100% agree with this but really, the Vikings had a top-10 offense in 2020 and it was hard to find a ton of fault with the game-planning and play calling. I would guess young Kubiak will be on a short leash, for sure, but I'm okay with this; maybe not super excited, but okay with it. One thing I know for sure, continuity probably had a lot more to do with this than his last name. And I'm a fan of continuity for sure.

Bored on a Monday, had to dig up some Pro Football Focus positional rankings. Some good, some bad, some very bad.

Cousins - #9 overall QB
Jefferson and Thielen - #2 and #6 overall WR's. That's pretty damn impressive really
Dalvin Cook - Actually couldn't find an overall ranking for RB but Cook was obviously phenomenal, made it through the season, #2 rusher in the league, and great out of the backfield

and then the not so good

O-Line - #26 overall, and significantly worse at G-C-G as the Tackles were not terrible
Secondary - #23 and quite honestly, I thought this would be a lot lower

and finally...

PASS RUSH - Dead last, #32 in the NFL

They've got some work to do, for sure, and not a lot of cap room to do it. Spielman and co need to earn their money this offseason.
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PFF is obviously a good metric. I don't have PFF, but I'd be interested in the ratings of the 4 QB's in the championship round: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers. But 3 of these 4 were the only ones receiving votes for the MVP this year. I'd also be interested in the overall OL rankings of these teams.

Looking at those same 4 teams, here is the defensive rankings:

Bills
Points Allowed: 16
Yards Allowed: 14

Chiefs
PA: 10
YA: 16

Bucs
PA: 8
YA: 6

Packers
PA: 13
YA: 9

Basically what that tells you is that the Bucs were the outlier, in that they had a top 10 defense. The other three were pretty much mid-pack as far as defense goes. This is the drum I've been pounding- elite OL and QB will get you far, and an elite defense is no longer required. Sometimes, an elite D will compensate for a below average QB, like SF last year. But that is not a long-term, sustainable thing. However, if you have an elite QB, you can have an average to below average D for a long period of time and still be successful. GB has had an average to below average D for many of the years under Rodgers, but they've still been very successful. Currently the Vikes have neither the QB or OL they need. Yes, the D stinks. But that is not where the priority should lie if they want to become better than mediocre.
 

forever a gopher said:
This is the drum I've been pounding- elite OL and QB will get you far, and an elite defense is no longer required. Sometimes, an elite D will compensate for a below average QB, like SF last year. But that is not a long-term, sustainable thing.
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Even if this is exactly correct, Zim doesn't want to win like that.

He'd rather go down swinging on the "defense wins championships" boat than try to change to fit the modern trends of championship teams.
 


Rams might be another example. Invested heavily in defensive stars like Donald and Ramsey, and had an average QB in Goff. Granted, they went out and got Stafford.
 

forever a gopher said:
I know nothing about Klint Kubiak. But what are the chances he would be getting an OC job anywhere but here, right after his father retired? Between Zim's kid and Kubiak's kid, if I was the Wilfs, I'd sure be critical that we're not hiring the most qualified, but rather the ones with the correct last names.
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He's been on the Vikings staff since 2013, before either Zim or his dad were around. He's been the QB coach for 2 years, which is normally who gets promoted to OC. There is plenty of nepotism in the NFL, but I don't think this is a great example. If they want to keep the same offense, going with anyone else doesn't make sense. Zim's kid is a different story.
 

MplsGopher said:
Rams might be another example. Invested heavily in defensive stars like Donald and Ramsey, and had an average QB in Goff. Granted, they went out and got Stafford.
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Yes, another great example. Goff had a pretty good year (4688 yds, 32:12 TD:INT, 65% completion). Gurley also had over 1,800 total yards and 21 TD's. Goff, however, is not an elite QB, and defenses figured him/McVay out and he has regressed to the mean. So they had one great year, and have gone back to a good team but not great. Their defense was number 1 (!) in both yards allowed and points allowed this year. But they crapped out after winning one game in the playoffs. They also heavily mortgaged the future with a vast number of draft picks to win now with an elite defense. And now they're blowing more picks to get Stafford, who has yet to make anybody around him better.
 

MplsGopher said:
Come on San Franny! You know you want Cousins.

He eats up too much cap, for a guy who can't put us on his back to the Superbowl. Ready to start over with something new.
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He was far from the reason out season went south- I’m surprised the guy is still walking with the sieve Spielman put in front of him.

So by your definition we should only pay big coin to one of 2QBs- both who aren’t available? Hmmm. Wanna go back to TJack (RIP) days?
 



forever a gopher said:
PFF is obviously a good metric. I don't have PFF, but I'd be interested in the ratings of the 4 QB's in the championship round: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers. But 3 of these 4 were the only ones receiving votes for the MVP this year. I'd also be interested in the overall OL rankings of these teams.

Looking at those same 4 teams, here is the defensive rankings:

Bills
Points Allowed: 16
Yards Allowed: 14

Chiefs
PA: 10
YA: 16

Bucs
PA: 8
YA: 6

Packers
PA: 13
YA: 9

Basically what that tells you is that the Bucs were the outlier, in that they had a top 10 defense. The other three were pretty much mid-pack as far as defense goes. This is the drum I've been pounding- elite OL and QB will get you far, and an elite defense is no longer required. Sometimes, an elite D will compensate for a below average QB, like SF last year. But that is not a long-term, sustainable thing. However, if you have an elite QB, you can have an average to below average D for a long period of time and still be successful. GB has had an average to below average D for many of the years under Rodgers, but they've still been very successful. Currently the Vikes have neither the QB or OL they need. Yes, the D stinks. But that is not where the priority should lie if they want to become better than mediocre.
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What the SB proved this year, emphatically, is that you need to be strong in the trenches on both sides and the Vikings were far, FAR from that. They have some work to do, and this year's draft is not strong in those areas (at least not where they are drafting).

Right now, forget about Cousins, maybe this team really isn't that close considering they are woefully inadequate on both OL and DL. They have serious interior OL issues and DT issues. And a growing issue at Safety as well. Not to mention salary cap issues.

With a new HC/GM like some teams, sure, this team would be a candidate to jettison Cousins for capital and somewhat rebuild. No way in hell that's what Zim/Spielman are going to do. If they win 4-5 games in 2021, one or both could be gone. So that's how they are going to approach this offseason, with largely 2021 in mind only.
 


Oregon Gopher said:
He was far from the reason out season went south- I’m surprised the guy is still walking with the sieve Spielman put in front of him.
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Agree. But, as I'm sure you agree with, you shouldn't get a big payday just because you can take a beating.

Oregon Gopher said:
So by your definition we should only pay big coin to one of 2QBs- both who aren’t available? Hmmm. Wanna go back to TJack (RIP) days?
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No. My points have merely been that if Zim wants to win it with defense, maybe we should not be paying top (half of the league) dollar to a QB who is good but not great.

As I pointed out, our best season (2017) was with a QB that we picked up for 1yr/$2M.
 

BleedGopher said:

Skol Vikes!!
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Can't be the PLAYERS, huh, Jim?

Gonna be a long offseason, we'll see more articles like this. At the end of the day, just having Hunter and Pierce last year would have put them in the playoffs, and that's with a substandard OL. I'm not saying that either Adam Zimmer or Klink Kubiak will turn out to be Kyle Shanahan, but this isn't exactly unprecedented in the league and it can actually work on some occasions. And like I said before, there's something to be said for continuity. Young Zim has largely been responsible for the LB's in recent years, hardly anything that would be considered a glaring weak spot during that time
 



Chad Graff with The Athletic and the 5th piece in his look at the Vikings offseason decisions, closing with this look at the Kirk Cousins debate.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in 2021... and beyond

He doesn't exactly come out and say it but the reality is, Cousins is pretty much exactly what Zim is looking for in a QB for his team, when he has a strong defense to work with; a QB that is GREAT in play action, the offense runs the ball really effectively, and doesn't turn the ball over (overlooking Cousins' first 6-7 games last year).

Short story, and I believe this; the Vikings are not looking to move Cousins. The article says they have not made one single call to anyone about it (doesn't say they haven't fielded any calls however). Like anything else, like pretty much any other player, if someone blows you away with an offer, you have to listen so you can't say it will never happen. But I think it's fairly safe to assume that Cousins will be starting Week 1 this fall for the Purple
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Chad Graff with The Athletic and the 5th piece in his look at the Vikings offseason decisions, closing with this look at the Kirk Cousins debate.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in 2021... and beyond

He doesn't exactly come out and say it but the reality is, Cousins is pretty much exactly what Zim is looking for in a QB for his team, when he has a strong defense to work with; a QB that is GREAT in play action, the offense runs the ball really effectively, and doesn't turn the ball over (overlooking Cousins' first 6-7 games last year).

Short story, and I believe this; the Vikings are not looking to move Cousins. The article says they have not made one single call to anyone about it (doesn't say they haven't fielded any calls however). Like anything else, like pretty much any other player, if someone blows you away with an offer, you have to listen so you can't say it will never happen. But I think it's fairly safe to assume that Cousins will be starting Week 1 this fall for the Purple
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This is not surprising at all. If they are able to move on from Cousins and bring somebody else in (whether a vet or draft a rookie), the chances are there will be some growing pains, and it may mean they don't make the playoffs if they get off to a slow start. Zim and Spielman are going to throw everything at 2021, future be damned, in an attempt to save their hides. I stand by the fact that if you don't have long term confidence in somebody (GM or coaching staff), then just let them go. If anybody is essentially on a year-by-year basis, it probably means they're not going to cut it long term and you may as well make the move.

There are a lot of similarities to the Pitino era- Pitino cobbled together a bunch of transfers in an attempt to win enough this year, make the tourney and save his job. This is not a sustainable path, and will most likely mean 2021/2022 will be worse than this year. But hey, he saved his job! The DL/OL/QB as it currently stands are not what you need to win big in the NFL. QB is good enough to get you to the playoffs, but not good enough in big games to get you anywhere. OL has been neglected far too long. But if they can get Hunter to stay and hit on their first round pick, they can make the playoffs and probably save their jobs as well. But this team won't be any closer to winning a super bowl.

In both instances, the track record is far long enough to know how this is going to play out. To look at the success of one single season and disregard all others is silly when the track record has been written. Whether or not they make the playoffs in 2021 will not signify whether or not this team can get to the super bowl anytime soon. Without foundational changes to coaching style, qb, ol, dl, this team is not getting there.
 

Oregon Gopher said:
He was far from the reason out season went south- I’m surprised the guy is still walking with the sieve Spielman put in front of him.

So by your definition we should only pay big coin to one of 2QBs- both who aren’t available? Hmmm. Wanna go back to TJack (RIP) days?
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Cousins cap # for 2022 is $45 million. it's an albatross around our neck. We will be forced to extend him once again to get the # down. If there is an opportunity to get out from under the contract, we need to take it. It's not really about Cousins, it's about his salary. For that amount, he needs to be Patrick Mahomes to cover for the other deficiencies we can't afford to fix, and he's just not. We are better off with someone like Jimmy G or a rookie and $ to fix the O-line and the defense.
 

I honestly think if the Vikings defense is healthy we have a chance to be good next year. The Packers are clearly front runners for our division, but the NFC is pretty meh overall. The west will all beat up on each other, the south is basically TB's if Brady is back and Brees retires, and the East is a shit show.

Do some work on the OL, maybe get another edge rusher or DT, and hope the young DB's continue to improve.

If the Vikings get into the playoffs anything can happen.
 

The latest NFL Draft projection I saw said they will target an edge rusher and the best one out there is Gregory Rosseau from Miami.


Vikings take Miami DE Gregory Rousseau in Draft Wire mock draft (yahoo.com)
  • The Vikings had two elite pass rushers under contract heading into the 2020 season. By the end of the year, neither of those players were on the field for the team, and the pass rush struggled as a result.

    Defensive end Danielle Hunter’s offseason injury turned out to be season-ending, while Yannick Ngakoue was traded to the Ravens after a 1-5 start.

    Minnesota has to make sure its pass rush isn’t as bad as it was in 2020. An easy way to help with that would be to take a top defensive end prospect in the first round of the NFL draft.


    At least, that’s what our friends at Draft Wire think the Vikings should do. Luke Easterling, who writes for Draft Wire, tabbed Minnesota to take Miami DE Gregory Rousseau in the 2021 draft.

    Rousseau had 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in 2019. In 2020, he opted out, but the potential he showed in his collegiate career before that helped him remain a top prospect. If the Vikings take him and the defensive end pairing is Hunter and Rousseau, the pass rush most likely will have gotten a lot better. He was also a second All American during that season.



 

Rumblings of Russel Wilson Jr. wanting out of Seattle. Between him and Watson, get 'er done!
 

howeda7 said:
Rumblings of Russel Wilson Jr. wanting out of Seattle. Between him and Watson, get 'er done!
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Why, and what type of situation does he want to go to? Can't imagine it's about getting paid top dollar, and more about trying to win a championship.
 

howeda7 said:
Cousins cap # for 2022 is $45 million. it's an albatross around our neck. We will be forced to extend him once again to get the # down. If there is an opportunity to get out from under the contract, we need to take it. It's not really about Cousins, it's about his salary. For that amount, he needs to be Patrick Mahomes to cover for the other deficiencies we can't afford to fix, and he's just not. We are better off with someone like Jimmy G or a rookie and $ to fix the O-line and the defense.
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What you're saying isn't incorrect, it's just not going to happen. Zim/Spielman are NOT going to dramatically reduce the quality at the QB position going into 2021. Zero chance. They know a bad season and one or both of them could be gone.

Would you sacrifice your job to make it easier for the next guy who replaces you? Not going to happen.

If Bradbury and Cleveland (and O'Neill really) take steps forward going into next year, which isn't that much of a stretch, and the get guards in free agency and the draft, the OL could be more than adequate.

Hunter and Pierce return at full speed (fingers crossed) and a few of the DTs in the Watts, Johnson, Stephen, and Lynch group step up, the DL may not be a disaster, and yes, I actually have a lot of confidence in the young CB's taking big strides next year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Safety taken in the first round, depending on who's available. They have holes at S, DT, DE and obviously the OL.
 

MplsGopher said:
Why, and what type of situation does he want to go to? Can't imagine it's about getting paid top dollar, and more about trying to win a championship.
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He wants better weapons and to get hit less. We've got the weapons. We would need to work on the Oline.
 

The Athletic threw up a small chunk on Cousins in their Free Agency and Trade News tracker:

>>Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins signed a two-year extension last offseason, giving the team enough short-term flexibility to offer running back Dalvin Cook a new contract. But as a result, Cousins is set to count for $45 million against the cap in 2022, and his contract becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the Vikings roster on March 20. That’s led to speculation Minnesota could look to trade Cousins, but The Athletic’s Chad Graff doesn’t expect that to happen.

From Graff: The team hasn’t made a single call to another team looking to trade Cousins, according to a source. They want to be in contention for a playoff run and believe they have a team that can do that with Cousins at the helm. They don’t want to get worse at quarterback.
 

tmvander said:
I honestly think if the Vikings defense is healthy we have a chance to be good next year. The Packers are clearly front runners for our division, but the NFC is pretty meh overall. The west will all beat up on each other, the south is basically TB's if Brady is back and Brees retires, and the East is a shit show.

Do some work on the OL, maybe get another edge rusher or DT, and hope the young DB's continue to improve.

If the Vikings get into the playoffs anything can happen.
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Not to harp on you personally, but this type of thinking is what gets teams into a sustained level of mediocrity. "Just get into the playoffs, as it gives you a chance". But that means you're OK with just being a playoff team. The Bears were a playoff team this year- would you feel good about your team if you were a Bears fan? Even if they trade for Wentz, they're not a SB contender. l posted this earlier, but to reiterate, the only 4 teams to go from wildcard to super bowl appearance since 2000 are:

2000 Ravens (with one of the greatest defenses of all time)
2005 Steelers (with future HOF QB)
2007 Giants (with future HOF QB)
2010 Packers (with future HOF QB)

It's not as random and not nearly as much parity as the NFL leads you to believe. You've seen low seeds with teams that were unexpected get to the championship in the MLB and NHL, but it just doesn't seem to happen in the NFL. Get elite talent at QB and OL. Everything else is secondary. Until you do that, you're just going to be treading water.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
The Athletic threw up a small chunk on Cousins in their Free Agency and Trade News tracker:

>>Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins signed a two-year extension last offseason, giving the team enough short-term flexibility to offer running back Dalvin Cook a new contract. But as a result, Cousins is set to count for $45 million against the cap in 2022, and his contract becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the Vikings roster on March 20. That’s led to speculation Minnesota could look to trade Cousins, but The Athletic’s Chad Graff doesn’t expect that to happen.

From Graff: The team hasn’t made a single call to another team looking to trade Cousins, according to a source. They want to be in contention for a playoff run and believe they have a team that can do that with Cousins at the helm. They don’t want to get worse at quarterback.
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They're probably drawing straws to figure out who will have to be the one to approach other teams about taking on Cousins' contract.
 

More interesting notes from Chad Graff at The Athletic, this time regarding the chances of returning of the 11 Vikings unrestricted Free Agents. Nobody above a 50% chance or returning, with Brett Jones being the most likely. If he takes a team friendly number, that would help the Vikings.

Predictions for the Vikings 11 unrestricted FA's

Rashod Hill is another interesting situation. From what I've read previously, Hill actually grades out really well when he's played consistently. IF he accepts a reasonable number from the Vikings, he could fill the void left by Reiff leaving (possibly) and mean the holes on the OL might just be a little less, provided Cleveland and O'Neill and Bradbury continue to improve and develop. But up until now, indications were that Hill could/would test the market for a better number. We'll see. If Reiff doesn't come back, Hill has to see that he has a decent chance at starting in Minny.
 

Rieff actually had a good year last year, from what I recall reading. Obviously not the LT of the future. So if they're planning to trade him or cut him and put Cleveland there, then we need two guards. If they want to keep Cleveland at RG, and try their luck with Rieff one more year at LT, or perhaps as OO is suggesting sign Hill, maybe that is the play.

Regardless, keeping Dozier as the starting LG would be extremely disappointing.

Of the other UFA's, don't we have to try to keep both Harris and Wilson? The rest, I'm not too concerned about.
 

howeda7 said:
The Bears are trading a 1st, 3rd and Nick Foles for Carson Wentz. Cousins should be worth at least that much as his contract is far less awful and he's better than Wentz.
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Starting to sound like this was just smoke coming out of the Eagles camp to gin up a stronger offer from Indy. The Eagles have not exactly played this situation very well. Their leverage is dwindling by the day, as it looks like the only likely suitor is Indy. Hard to have a bidding war with just one team interested
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Starting to sound like this was just smoke coming out of the Eagles camp to gin up a stronger offer from Indy. The Eagles have not exactly played this situation very well. Their leverage is dwindling by the day, as it looks like the only likely suitor is Indy. Hard to have a bidding war with just one team interested
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Darn. I wanted the Bears to give up a 1st to get a QB just like the one they already have.
 


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