All Things 2021 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

[RememberMurray]

Read the thread. Others (Ogee in particular) have laid out that case pretty well, I think.

The biggest thing by far is Cousin's contract. Even though, yes, the obvious thing is to rework it to kick the can down the road. But still ...

I could read the entire thread and extrapolate, but I was hoping you could tell me why you, in particular, feel that way.

I get it that many, many Viking fans are definitely not Kirk Cousins fans.

 

[MplsGopher]

I was hoping you could tell me why you, in particular, feel that way.

Post #447 is excellent.

 

[RememberMurray]

Post #447 is excellent.

I get another reading assignment. Okay, I'll read it again...

 

[RememberMurray]

Okay, I read #447 again. My takeaway:

I think until the Vikings win a Super Bowl, or Kirk Cousins is gone — or both — we'll have a lot of unhappy Viking fans.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I think what a lot of people see in the situation is this:

The Cousins contract issues comes to a head in the next year. The Vikes cannot go into a season with the QB having a $45-million cap hit. So they either have to rework the contract or figure out some way to get out from under the deal. But either way, the clock is ticking.

If they decide to start over with a young QB, it will take time to develop.

So, a lot of people are adding 2+2 and it comes out to Zim and Spielman saying "We Need to Win this year" or Zigy could say "bleep it" and decide it's time to clean house.

With Zim adding a lot of veterans on defense, it also gives it the feel of a big push to go as far as the team can go in 2021.

A big year - with a playoff win or two - and Zim and Spielman probably stick around.

but a major flop - let's say a .500 record and miss the playoffs, or make the 1st round and get their butts handed to them - and Zigy might just pull the plug.

So - under this theory- Zim and Spielman are playing for their jobs, and they may be making decisions that help in the short term, but don't help in the long run.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

I think what a lot of people see in the situation is this:

The Cousins contract issues comes to a head in the next year. The Vikes cannot go into a season with the QB having a $45-million cap hit. So they either have to rework the contract or figure out some way to get out from under the deal. But either way, the clock is ticking.

If they decide to start over with a young QB, it will take time to develop.

So, a lot of people are adding 2+2 and it comes out to Zim and Spielman saying "We Need to Win this year" or Zigy could say "bleep it" and decide it's time to clean house.

With Zim adding a lot of veterans on defense, it also gives it the feel of a big push to go as far as the team can go in 2021.

A big year - with a playoff win or two - and Zim and Spielman probably stick around.

but a major flop - let's say a .500 record and miss the playoffs, or make the 1st round and get their butts handed to them - and Zigy might just pull the plug.

So - under this theory- Zim and Spielman are playing for their jobs, and they may be making decisions that help in the short term, but don't help in the long run.

I think you're mostly right here, but I don't buy whatsoever that Zim/Spielman are doing anything that is hurting the team long term. Without question a lot of the moves they have made are for this year and why not? They had essentially a top-10 offense last year and will have a ton of guys starting on defense this year that were not factors last year. Zero chance the defense isn't substantially improved this season. They could have 5-6+ guys starting that will be improvements over who started last year.

Cousins' contract is not the albatross that people are making it out to be. The new TV deal means HUGE money moving forward, MASSIVE money in the coming years. Any re-work of his contract will ease the burden moving forward. He's 32 and just had the best year of his career. I would bet about anything, Cousins' salary cap hit in 2022 and beyond will actually be pretty manageable and more in line with where he falls in the pecking order among NFL QB's.

Look, not many have been more upset with their lack of addressing the QB situation for so many years as I have, but right now? Be careful what you wish for, grass is always greener, etc. Mortgaging the future and rolling the dice that some unknown commodity is going to be CONSIDERABLY better than Cousins is not really a smart play. Not at all. Tua was the #5 overall pick last year, Daniel Jones the #6 overall pick the year before; how many would take one of them over Cousins right now, in a heartbeat?

Like it or not, Cousins is the guy for the foreseeable future.

 

[RememberMurray]

I think you're mostly right here, but I don't buy whatsoever that Zim/Spielman are doing anything that is hurting the team long term. Without question a lot of the moves they have made are for this year and why not? They had essentially a top-10 offense last year and will have a ton of guys starting on defense this year that were not factors last year. Zero chance the defense isn't substantially improved this season. They could have 5-6+ guys starting that will be improvements over who started last year.

Cousins' contract is not the albatross that people are making it out to be. The new TV deal means HUGE money moving forward, MASSIVE money in the coming years. Any re-work of his contract will ease the burden moving forward. He's 32 and just had the best year of his career. I would bet about anything, Cousins' salary cap hit in 2022 and beyond will actually be pretty manageable and more in line with where he falls in the pecking order among NFL QB's.

Look, not many have been more upset with their lack of addressing the QB situation for so many years as I have, but right now? Be careful what you wish for, grass is always greener, etc. Mortgaging the future and rolling the dice that some unknown commodity is going to be CONSIDERABLY better than Cousins is not really a smart play. Not at all. Tua was the #5 overall pick last year, Daniel Jones the #6 overall pick the year before; how many would take one of them over Cousins right now, in a heartbeat?

Like it or not, Cousins is the guy for the foreseeable future.

Spot on.

We all want an "elite" QB, but — by definition — those are very hard to come by. If you can't have one of those guys, Cousins is definitely in the next tier down; plus, he is durable. As far as his contract is concerned, Ogee nailed it: when the cap goes up, it won't be a problem. I think the Vikings are really good at cap management.

They had a factoid on KFAN today, and if I remember correctly it was as follows: Since 2005, only ONE quarterback drafted in the top 10 is still with his original team!

As Ogee pointed out, the Vikings offense looks quite good right now.

On defense, just getting Pearson and Hunter back, plus the Tomlinson FA signing, and the veteran addition of Patrick Peterson make the defense look vastly improved already.

I don't think firing the staff is a good blueprint for being a successful team. Hey, up until a couple of years ago, Andy Reid supposedly "couldn't win the Big One". I really don't like the idea of firing the staff after a (hypothetical) season in which the team goes 12-4 and wins a playoff game.

 

[MplsGopher]

I really doubt that anyone who has followed this team, even if just since 2017 (the miracle year), feels like Cousins is unquestionably "the guy".

I don't feel that way. Certainly didn't feel like a career year.

Maybe he'll be a surprise next year. But so far, he hasn't even felt as good as Keenum in 2017.

 

[MplsGopher]

As Ogee pointed out, the Vikings offense looks quite good right now.

Except, you know, OFFENSIVE LINE.

 

[forever a gopher]

They had a factoid on KFAN today, and if I remember correctly it was as follows: Since 2005, only ONE quarterback drafted in the top 10 is still with his original team!

Huh? You obviously got whatever they said way wrong.

Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes

Out of these, it's pretty easy to argue that 6/8 are upgrades over Cousins. Jury is out on 2 of them (Tua and Jones), but they are still very young and not on a great team.

 

[RememberMurray]

Huh? You obviously got whatever they said way wrong.

Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes

Out of these, it's pretty easy to argue that 6/8 are upgrades over Cousins. Jury is out on 2 of them (Tua and Jones), but they are still very young and not on a great team.

Yes, I obviously heard it wrong. Nice catch. If anyone else heard the program, maybe you can set me straight. It was on the Common Man show.

That being said... you're ranking Burrow, Murray, Herbert, Mayfield, Allen and Mahomes as upgrades.

I'll give you Mahomes, obviously. That's one.

Burrow, Mayfield, Allen and Herbert have to be added in to the "jury is still out" category, because of short resumes, in my opinion. Burrow hasn't even played one full season!

---

Mayfield: 61.9%, 75 TDs, 43 INTs, 246.3 YDs/Game, YDs/Att 7.4

Cousins: 67%, 190 TDs, 84 INTs, 260.3 YDs/Game, YDs/Att 7.7

I must be missing something in Mayfield vs. Cousins...

---

That leaves you with Murray and Mahomes from your list: 2 guys that are arguably a clear step up from Cousins. TWO guys. Count 'em.

That's rare air. My point stands. Elite QBs are hard to come by.

 

[RememberMurray]

A question:

Which NFL teams will have an ELITE quarterback starting Week One, 2021?

 

[howeda7]

A question:

Which NFL teams will have an ELITE quarterback starting Week One, 2021?

Houston (if not in prison/suspended)
Kansas City
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Atlanta (he's getting marginal but I'll leave him on)
Seattle

End of List.

 

[RememberMurray]

Houston (if not in prison/suspended)
Kansas City
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Atlanta (he's getting marginal but I'll leave him on)
Seattle

End of List.

Yeah, and Watson won't start. Atlanta: I'd say Ryan is in the "very good" category, but not elite.

So... 4 out of 32 teams.

 

[howeda7]

Yeah, and Watson won't start. Atlanta: I'd say Ryan is in the "very good" category, but not elite.

So... 4 out of 32 teams.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are borderline but haven't proved enough yet IMO.

 

[MplsGopher]

Cousins: ... but, I’ve got stats!! Career year stats!

Yeah, I guess wins are “important” too.

 

[RememberMurray]

Cousins: ... but, I’ve got stats!! Career year stats!

Yeah, I guess wins are “important” too.

Okay, let's go with wins. What are the wins comparisons? Have you looked?

How do Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan — to name a few — stack up in wins? How about Baker Mayfield? Joe Burrow?

You pick the QBs, and compare.

 

[howeda7]

I don't love Cousins but it is what it is. I don't really understand what the Cousins haters want him to do? His contract was a fair market rate contract when he signed it. So was the extension. Is he supposed to apologize and give half of it back?

 

[MplsGopher]

I don't love Cousins but it is what it is. I don't really understand what the Cousins haters want him to do? His contract was a fair market rate contract when he signed it. So was the extension. Is he supposed to apologize and give half of it back?

No, of course not.

But it absolutely confirms the narrative that Zim/Speil are 2021 or bust.

 

[MplsGopher]

Okay, let's go with wins. What are the wins comparisons? Have you looked?

How do Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan — to name a few — stack up in wins? How about Baker Mayfield? Joe Burrow?

You pick the QBs, and compare.

Here the much better questions to ask yourself:

had Cousins felt like “the guy” since he was signed here?

I say no.


Ask Washington fans the same question.

 

[RememberMurray]

Here the much better questions to ask yourself:

had Cousins felt like “the guy” since he was signed here?

I say no.


Ask Washington fans the same question.

Well... I guess we've dropped wins as a comparative. Wins were brought up by you, not me.

But, we'll move on. If by felt like "the guy", you mean did he or does he look as though he'll ever be as good as, say, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, then the answer is clearly no. I don't think he will.

But... what are the odds that the Vikings could have replaced Cousins with a player of the caliber of Wilson or Rodgers? Did you see a particular opportunity that was available that the team management missed out on to get a Russell Wilson type?

Who was available, that the Vikings could have gotten, that would be clearly better than Cousins?

In fact, let's start out simpler than that: which current, veteran NFL QBs would you say are clearly better than Cousins?

My point, once again: elite QBs are very, very rare. Cousins isn't elite. But he's pretty good.

 

[RememberMurray]

Here the much better questions to ask yourself:

had Cousins felt like “the guy” since he was signed here?

I say no.


Ask Washington fans the same question.

First, let's ask Washington fans a far more pertinent question: what do Washington fans think of the QBs they've had since Cousins left there?

What do you think of those post-Cousins Washington QBs?

The Washington team had Haskins, their big #1 draft pick... he started for a few games. How would you say that worked? They signed Alex Smith, who suffered a devastating injury — in contrast with Cousins' durability. Now they are probably looking at starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do you like that move as an answer?

Yes, Washington fans bitched about Cousins, exactly like Viking fans are doing now. Are Washington fans happier with their post-Cousins quarterback play?

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Huh? You obviously got whatever they said way wrong.

Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes

Out of these, it's pretty easy to argue that 6/8 are upgrades over Cousins. Jury is out on 2 of them (Tua and Jones), but they are still very young and not on a great team.

Not picking an argument but you kinda conveniently left out the failures like Mitchy Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold (at least until now?), and even later picks like Paxton Lynch and Jordan Love are questionable.

I want them to address the position as much as anyone, but if you're not picking really high AND massively in love with someone, you're probably wasting a pick

 

[forever a gopher]

I don't love Cousins but it is what it is. I don't really understand what the Cousins haters want him to do? His contract was a fair market rate contract when he signed it. So was the extension. Is he supposed to apologize and give half of it back?

I’m not hating on Cousins. I’m hating on the Vikes continued practice of getting slightly-better-than-ok QBs to plug a hole for a few years. I was all about the first Cousins contract. I thought he was on a bad team, and that was holding him back. Turns out with years of more evidence, he is the same QB in big games he was in Washington as he is here. We knew that before extending him, and chose to extend him anyway, that’s my beef. There is a 0% chance he leads a team to a super bowl.

 

[forever a gopher]

Not picking an argument but you kinda conveniently left out the failures like Mitchy Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold (at least until now?), and even later picks like Paxton Lynch and Jordan Love are questionable.

I want them to address the position as much as anyone, but if you're not picking really high AND massively in love with someone, you're probably wasting a pick

Not at all. Read Murray’s statement. That’s what I was replying to. He said one QB drafted in the top 10 since 2005 is still with their original team. That is obviously a preposterous statement. So I provided a list of all the QBs drafted top 10 since 2005 still with their original team. Of course there are flameouts, but that’s not what the list was addressing. The guys you listed aren’t with their original team, so don’t qualify to be put on a list to refute his comment.

If you want to provide a list of all the top 10 QB flameouts, have at it. There are plenty. Drafting is an inexact science- just ask the Wolves. But his ascertation was incorrect, so I was correcting it.

 

[forever a gopher]

Yes, I obviously heard it wrong. Nice catch. If anyone else heard the program, maybe you can set me straight. It was on the Common Man show.

That being said... you're ranking Burrow, Murray, Herbert, Mayfield, Allen and Mahomes as upgrades.

I'll give you Mahomes, obviously. That's one.

Burrow, Mayfield, Allen and Herbert have to be added in to the "jury is still out" category, because of short resumes, in my opinion. Burrow hasn't even played one full season!

---

Mayfield: 61.9%, 75 TDs, 43 INTs, 246.3 YDs/Game, YDs/Att 7.4

Cousins: 67%, 190 TDs, 84 INTs, 260.3 YDs/Game, YDs/Att 7.7

I must be missing something in Mayfield vs. Cousins...

---

That leaves you with Murray and Mahomes from your list: 2 guys that are arguably a clear step up from Cousins. TWO guys. Count 'em.

That's rare air. My point stands. Elite QBs are hard to come by.

You are right in that some are not necessarily better statistically better than Cousins right now. I should have framed it- which QBs would you rather have right now? Burrow has only played a single partial season, but I’ve seen enough to say I’d rather have him than Cousins. I would argue Murray is not as good of a QB right now as Cousins either. But I’d much rather have him and see him continue to develop and build around than Cousins.

 

[RememberMurray]

You are right in that some are not necessarily better statistically better than Cousins right now. I should have framed it- which QBs would you rather have right now? Burrow has only played a single partial season, but I’ve seen enough to say I’d rather have him than Cousins. I would argue Murray is not as good of a QB right now as Cousins either. But I’d much rather have him and see him continue to develop and build around than Cousins.

No offense, but I think it is a bit of a head-scratcher to already prefer Burrow to Cousins at this point in their respective careers, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

I think you probably realize that the Vikings coaching staff and their management team have a higher opinion of Cousins than you have, so it seems pretty likely that Cousins is going to be our team's QB for the foreseeable future.

 

[MplsGopher]

You are right in that some are not necessarily better statistically better than Cousins right now. I should have framed it- which QBs would you rather have right now? Burrow has only played a single partial season, but I’ve seen enough to say I’d rather have him than Cousins. I would argue Murray is not as good of a QB right now as Cousins either. But I’d much rather have him and see him continue to develop and build around than Cousins.

Hit the nail on the head.

And would guess many Vikings fans agree. Cousins just doesn't feel like "the guy" that's going to lead us to the promised land. Stats be damned.

 

[MplsGopher]

I think you probably realize that the Vikings coaching staff and their management team have a higher opinion of Cousins than you have, so it seems pretty likely that Cousins is going to be our team's QB for the foreseeable future.

I'm sure the contract has nothing to do with that, at all ...

 

[MplsGopher]

Well... I guess we've dropped wins as a comparative. Wins were brought up by you, not me.

It was, and yes I am moving the goalposts. No dodging that from me.

Because you've made it clear that you're always going to try to hide behind numbers, and ignore gut feel and eyeball test. That is your prerogative, and that is fine.

My point, once again: elite QBs are very, very rare. Cousins isn't elite. But he's pretty good.

Perfectly fine, and agree.

The point is simply this: in the NFL, you just can't afford to "buy a Super Bowl" by just paying top dollar at every position. They set it up that way, on purpose, so it wouldn't by like baseball with the Yankees.


So, if you don't have an elite veteran (Rodgers, etc.), and you "only" have a pretty good QB, then two things:
- you don't hang a noose around the team's neck by paying that player as if he was elite!
- you eventually move on, knowing that this is never going to be "the guy".


You hope to get lucky with a great rookie QB, who you pay very cheaply on their rookie deal. And you use that money to load up at the other positions.

That's pretty much what you have to do these days, to take a shot at a Super Bowl.