All Things 2021 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

The Twins about to be no hit.

Angels Sandoval with a no hitter through 8. Twins have never been no hit at home.

Twins Brent Rooker end the no hitter with a 1 out double.
 
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per Shooter:

Besides Nelson Cruz, who as expected was traded to Tampa Bay last week, the most sought-after Minnesota Twin as Friday’s trade deadline approaches is starter Jose Berrios. Outfielder Byron Buxton would be, too, if he were made available, but that’s unlikely.

The Twins have made multiple contract offers to Berrios, 27, who is under club control for 2022. The same for Buxton, 27, also under control for 2022. Expect both to be in Twins uniforms next year.


Win Twins!!
 





Here's the story reference in the tweet via The Athletic (read it and weep) -

Twins, Byron Buxton can’t reach agreement on contract extension, increasing chance of offseason trade​


Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton could not agree on a contract extension, increasing the possibility he will be traded this offseason and perhaps making the team more willing to move right-hander Jose Berríos and other players under team control beyond this season.

The Twins intend to compete in 2022, but Buxton now joins Berríos as players who are likely to become free agents at the end of that season. Buxton is unlikely to be moved before Friday’s trade deadline while he remains on the injured list with a fractured left hand. Berríos, however, would be one of the top starting pitchers available in a thin market. Left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers, also under team control through ’22, already is likely to be dealt, considering the demand for relievers at this time of year.

The Twins’ initial offer to Buxton was for $73 million over seven years, and included a unique incentive package that would have increased its potential value, sources said. Buxton’s side countered, and the Twins responded by increasing the guarantee to $80 million. But ultimately the parties could not bridge the gap that defined these negotiations — the difference between what Buxton delivers as an oft-injured player, and what he might deliver if fully healthy.

“We have had numerous conversations with the Twins over the years in regards to ‘Buck’ and his future with the organization,” said Buxton’s agent, B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports. “None of these talks change that he is a Twin for the rest of this year and assuming that they tender him a contract in arbitration, then he’ll be a Twin next year.

“What the team decides to do in the interim to change the course of that future is certainly their right. But nothing changes as far as we’re concerned in regard to Buck’s goals going forward, which is to get healthy, to play for the organization, his teammates, the city and the fans.”

Abbott declined comment on specific aspects of the negotiations. The Twins declined to comment.

The trade of designated hitter Nelson Cruz on Thursday was an obvious move for the Twins, who are in last place in the AL Central. Cruz, 41, is signed only through this season and did not necessarily figure into the team’s 2022 plans. But trades of Berríos and Rogers before Friday, followed by one of Buxton this offseason, would signal a deeper restructuring.

Buxton, 27, is one of the game’s most exciting players when healthy. But only once has he appeared in more than 92 games in a season — in 2017, when he played in 140. His latest trip to the injured list is the 11th of his career, and the Twins feared they would be taking too much of a risk if they offered him a package closer to what he perceived to be his market value.

Over the past three seasons, the Twins have always been better with Buxton on the field, going 89-52 when he starts and 92-92 without him. The difference has been especially evident this season: The Twins entered Sunday 12-14 when Buxton starts and 30-43 when he does not.

After missing 39 games with a Grade 2 hip strain, Buxton quickly reinforced his importance to the team in his June 19 return. He beat out an infield single and easily ran down a long fly ball for the game’s final out his first day back, then homered and doubled the following day, contributing to two victories.

“It’s definitely a relief when you have the best center fielder in the league playing behind you,” Cruz said at the time. “He impacted the game in so many different ways. We missed him a lot.”

But Buxton’s injury issues resurfaced in only his third game back when he suffered a broken left pinky finger caused by the Reds’ Tyler Mahle hitting him on the hand with a fastball.

In April 2018, Buxton suffered a hairline fracture in his toe by fouling a pitch off his foot, then later was demoted to Triple A for the rest of the season. That offseason, he went to work, simplifying his offensive approach and going back to what made him successful enough to be the second pick of the 2012 draft.

Armed with an aggressive mindset while conducting two-a-day workouts to add strength to his upper body, Buxton turned around his career. With Cruz, a veteran free-agent signee, anchoring the lineup, Buxton was one of several young Twins players to enjoy a dynamic breakout in 2019. Displaying an enhanced power-speed combination, Buxton racked up 44 extra-base hits, including 30 doubles, in 295 plate appearances, batting .262/.314/.513. But he was limited by a bruised forearm in June and a concussion in July before suffering a shoulder subluxation on Aug. 1 that effectively ended his season.

The layoff didn’t affect Buxton, who stayed aggressive at the plate and homered 13 times in 130 at-bats in 2020. He took another step forward in ’21, performing at the highest level of his career. After batting .426/.466/.897 with eight doubles and eight homers in 73 March/April plate appearances, he was named American League Player of the Month.

“The run of games that he’s had is almost not believable because this isn’t a video game,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “These aren’t high school stats. He’s playing against the best guys in the world and just dominating and taking over games when he’s been out there.”
 

Falvey is in over his head.

Isn't Levine the GM?

I guess making the playoffs 3 out of his first 4 seasons, signing one of the best FA's in Twins history in Cruz along with several other good pickups, not strapping the team with any long term terrible contracts, and drafting promising prospects like Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis, means he's in over his head?
 

Isn't Levine the GM?

I guess making the playoffs 3 out of his first 4 seasons, signing one of the best FA's in Twins history in Cruz along with several other good pickups, not strapping the team with any long term terrible contracts, and drafting promising prospects like Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis, means he's in over his head?
They're doing a solid, but not great job.

Some FAs have worked others haven't. Buxton's fragility isn't their fault, and they rightly believe that they shouldn't pay him a massive base salary.

Trade away Buxton and Berrios for big prospect packages. Rogers too. They'll be back to competing for the division in two years.
 

The Twins’ initial offer to Buxton was for $73 million over seven years, and included a unique incentive package that would have increased its potential value, sources said. Buxton’s side countered, and the Twins responded by increasing the guarantee to $80 million. But ultimately the parties could not bridge the gap that defined these negotiations — the difference between what Buxton delivers as an oft-injured player, and what he might deliver if fully healthy.
I'm just going to pat myself on the back with this one. What I said they should do is (almost) exactly what they did (quoting myself below about a month ago). The revised offer puts him at $11.5mm/year guaranteed. If I was in their position, that would be where I'm maxed out. You cannot pay a guy more than that to sit on the bench with what their overall payroll is.

Maeda's contract is basically half (or more) incentives. There is no way in hell I'm giving Buxton $20mil/year guaranteed. I'd give him $10/year base, and a potential to earn another $10/year on plate appearances, and another $5/year on performance incentives. He stays healthy and plays well, he earns $25/year. Or almost guaranteed to happen- he gets injured, and sits/rehabs for half the season for $10mil.

If nothing else, it'll be interesting to see what happens with him. I can't believe any GM/owner would shell out good money for a guaranteed IL player, but as they say, it only takes one...
 



Isn't Levine the GM?

I guess making the playoffs 3 out of his first 4 seasons, signing one of the best FA's in Twins history in Cruz along with several other good pickups, not strapping the team with any long term terrible contracts, and drafting promising prospects like Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis, means he's in over his head?
Falvey is Levine's boss. I assume he is handling negotiating with a cornerstone franchise player directly.

Kiriloff and Larnach were drafted by Terry Ryan and co. Besides, he was brought here to develop pitching and has developed squat so far.

Sure Cruz was a good signing. And when he had the best offense in team history, he refused to part with prospects to help the rotation and started Randy Dobnak in game 2 of the play-offs instead. That told me all I needed to know. This perpetual low-balling of Buxton and Berrios just confirms it.
 

I'm just going to pat myself on the back with this one. What I said they should do is (almost) exactly what they did (quoting myself below about a month ago). The revised offer puts him at $11.5mm/year guaranteed. If I was in their position, that would be where I'm maxed out. You cannot pay a guy more than that to sit on the bench with what their overall payroll is.
If he performs as he has this year and were healthy, he's worth $30 million/year easy.

I agree the potential to earn $25 million/year with incentives is fair. But he's not going to accept a base of $10 with $15 in incentives. There are almost no similar contracts in MLB and certainly none for someone of Buxton's stature. The player's association would flip. They have to get the guaranteed amount somewhere between $15-20/year.
 


Falvey is Levine's boss. I assume he is handling negotiating with a cornerstone franchise player directly.

Kiriloff and Larnach were drafted by Terry Ryan and co. Besides, he was brought here to develop pitching and has developed squat so far.

Sure Cruz was a good signing. And when he had the best offense in team history, he refused to part with prospects to help the rotation and started Randy Dobnak in game 2 of the play-offs instead. That told me all I needed to know. This perpetual low-balling of Buxton and Berrios just confirms it.

Then what's the purpose of the GM? They are typically responsible for personnel decisions. Didn't Terry Ryan make all of the personnel decisions when he was GM?

Kirilloff was drafted one month before Ryan was fired, so I was off a little there. Larnach was drafted in 2018, two years after Ryan was fired.

They are taking the right approach with Berrios and Buxton. Berrios is an average SP, and Buxton has only had one season with more than 300 ABs, and that was 4 years ago.
 



They're doing a solid, but not great job.

Some FAs have worked others haven't. Buxton's fragility isn't their fault, and they rightly believe that they shouldn't pay him a massive base salary.

Trade away Buxton and Berrios for big prospect packages. Rogers too. They'll be back to competing for the division in two years.

This is where I'm at too. I'll add Kepler as someone I'm ready to move on from.
 

Then what's the purpose of the GM? They are typically responsible for personnel decisions. Didn't Terry Ryan make all of the personnel decisions when he was GM?
Yes, Terry Ryan made the decisions. But there was no "President of Baseball Ops" when Terry Ryan was GM. He reported to Dave St. Peter. Derek Falvey is in Terry Ryan's job with a different title. Thad Levine is essentially the Assistant GM with a different title.
Kirilloff was drafted one month before Ryan was fired, so I was off a little there. Larnach was drafted in 2018, two years after Ryan was fired.
I saw Larnach was drafted in 2015, but that was the Padres, so you're right on that one.
They are taking the right approach with Berrios and Buxton. Berrios is an average SP, and Buxton has only had one season with more than 300 ABs, and that was 4 years ago.
Berrios is not "average". He's not an "ace" but he is one of the 20 best starters in the league. His market value is easily 5/$110 or so, and there's no reason they can't pay him that.

My issue is that if they don't sign Buxton/Berrios, they will be either pay just as much for an external FA who's probably not as good, or they will have about a $70-80 million payroll going forward.

Except for Donaldson, there's no precedent for the former, and there's no excuse for later. They had a ~$140 million payroll going into 2020. There's no reason that can't be the norm.
 


How much does Buxton want? Anyone read anything?

How much are the twins willing to take a risk on? If hes like 8 years, 90 million, I'll take that chance. Anything more, nope.
 


The 2022 payroll if they keep everyone who's not a FA is ~$100 million. If they trade Berrios and Buxton it will be about $80 million. The 2020 payroll was ~$140 million. Who are they going to spend $ on if not them?

Then Sano's $12 million comes off after 2022 and Donaldson's $23 million comes off after 2023. There are no other big pending extensions looming. I get not wanting to overpay. But they've built this roster with a lot of payroll flexibility for a reason. Stop acting like you're the A's when you should be the Cardinals.
 

How much does Buxton want? Anyone read anything?

How much are the twins willing to take a risk on? If hes like 8 years, 90 million, I'll take that chance. Anything more, nope.
I don't get why they're trying to go so many years. $80 million for 4 years might get it done. $90 for 8 is laughable and I'm not sure 8 years makes sense for either side.
 

I don't get why they're trying to go so many years. $80 million for 4 years might get it done. $90 for 8 is laughable and I'm not sure 8 years makes sense for either side.
thats a great point.

I thought i read somewhere, cant remember where, it said twins offered 7 years, $73 million. Buxtons side wanted 7 for 80. Are twins really fighting about another million for year for 7 years?

4 years at 80 is fine. But @ 7 years? 3 free years essentially. I probably ready that on bleacherreport though
 

thats a great point.

I thought i read somewhere, cant remember where, it said twins offered 7 years, $73 million. Buxtons side wanted 7 for 80. Are twins really fighting about another million for year for 7 years?

4 years at 80 is fine. But @ 7 years? 3 free years essentially. I probably ready that on bleacherreport though
Buxton's side wanted more than 7/$80, that was the Twins "counter" after they rejected 7/$73.
 



Yes, Terry Ryan made the decisions. But there was no "President of Baseball Ops" when Terry Ryan was GM. He reported to Dave St. Peter. Derek Falvey is in Terry Ryan's job with a different title. Thad Levine is essentially the Assistant GM with a different title.

I saw Larnach was drafted in 2015, but that was the Padres, so you're right on that one.

Berrios is not "average". He's not an "ace" but he is one of the 20 best starters in the league. His market value is easily 5/$110 or so, and there's no reason they can't pay him that.

My issue is that if they don't sign Buxton/Berrios, they will be either pay just as much for an external FA who's probably not as good, or they will have about a $70-80 million payroll going forward.

Except for Donaldson, there's no precedent for the former, and there's no excuse for later. They had a ~$140 million payroll going into 2020. There's no reason that can't be the norm.

I disagree. I'd rank him in the 30-40 range.

I think the Twins are in a similar position as what the White Sox were in several years ago. They dumped Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, both better pitchers than Berrios, while in their mid 20s, for several prospects that make up their 1st place team today.

The Twins are going to continue to struggle until they develop a legitimate ace, and moving their best assets currently is their best chance to do that.
 

This is where I'm at too. I'll add Kepler as someone I'm ready to move on from.
It would be nice if he would hit higher than .200, but his OPS is pretty good considering, and he isn't going to get you much in a trade. I'd keep him.
 


I'm guessing Buxton's counter was something like 7/$140, which makes them going from $73 to $80 laughable. As I said, Falvey is in over his head here IMO.

Why would you give someone $140 million who can't stay healthy, and has only shown the ability to be a top offensive player for 100 ABs? Prior to this season, Buxton has not been great offensively.

Miguel Sano's on base percentage is higher this season than Buxton's was last season. And you're willing to dump Sano for nothing currently.
 

It would be nice if he would hit higher than .200, but his OPS is pretty good considering, and he isn't going to get you much in a trade. I'd keep him.
The Athletic said that in spite of his Mendozaesque BA, he performs above average for corner OFs offensively and is considered a plus average RF and adequate/fill in for CF.

I'm ready to move on from - let's see what Rooker can do with extended playing time at this point.
 

Why would you give someone $140 million who can't stay healthy, and has only shown the ability to be a top offensive player for 100 ABs? Prior to this season, Buxton has not been great offensively.

Miguel Sano's on base percentage is higher this season than Buxton's was last season. And you're willing to dump Sano for nothing currently.
I wouldn't go 7 years on Buxton. I don't understand why they're trying to do that. But I would do 4/$80 or 5/$100. It's risk/reward. If he is the player he's been so far this year, and stays reasonably healthy, you have a league MVP caliber player at a pretty much bargain rate. Sano is/was never going to be that.
 




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