All Things 2021 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

[howeda7]

Kiriloff having wrist surgery. Out for the year. There goes one of the few reasons to still watch. But it is a wise decision. He has not been the same since hurting it.

 

[BleedGopher]

Kiriloff having wrist surgery. Out for the year. There goes one of the few reasons to still watch. But it is a wise decision. He has not been the same since hurting it.

At least we didn't wait until December for one of our players to have off-season surgery like we often do.

Win Twins!!

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

$22 million/year is not top 10 money.

Ok, he would be tied with Yu Darvish as the 12th highest paid pitcher in baseball. I was off by 2.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I don't know, but you don't pay a 2/3 starter top 10 money just because you don't have anyone better.

Pray tell, how do you know what the market (what teams are actually willing to pay) for him is?

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

LaVelle has been tweeting that Berrios and his agents have shot down every offer the Twins have made. Berrios wants to go to free agency, and he wants "ace" money - $20- to $25 mill a year. You can argue over whether he's worth it, but it only takes one team willing to pay to set the going rate.

with Buxton, it's a real catch-22. due to the injuries, his trade value is diminished. I tend to agree with LaVelle on this one - offer a deal with a decent guaranteed salary and incentives based on playing time.

Txs.

Do you know if they've given Berrios a firm offer of $17-18M/per for 4-5 years? I'd give him something like that and tell him he has 72 hours to decide and if he doesn't pull the trigger -
Hasta La Vista time.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Pray tell, how do you know what the market (what teams are actually willing to pay) for him is?

I don't, but Berrios' camp has been adamant that they want 20+ million. He's going to take it to free agency to see if he can get that, if the Twins don't offer in that range. It doesn't appear the Twins are willing to offer that much.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I don't, but Berrios' camp has been adamant that they want 20+ million. He's going to take it to free agency to see if he can get that, if the Twins don't offer in that range. It doesn't appear the Twins are willing to offer that much.

Txs. Per my other post I'd give him $17-!8M per year for 4/5 years and give him 72 hours to say yes.

I don't think he's worth north of $20M either.

If they trade him send him to the Mets: DeGrom, Stro (8 innings of one hit ball last nigh with under 100 pitches) and him make a nice post season rotation and with the Yanks in serious jeopardy of missing out of playoffs this year, Cohen (the new owner, needs to go all in IMO) - as he can make a big splash this year.

 

[howeda7]

Ok, he would be tied with Yu Darvish as the 12th highest paid pitcher in baseball. I was off by 2.

And 5 + more will pass that this off-season. By next year, it won't be top 15 $.

And just because his contract averages $22 million, doesn't mean it starts there. $18, 20, 22, 24, 26 over 5 years. He would likely never be in the top 10-15.

 

[howeda7]

Txs. Per my other post I'd give him $17-!8M per year for 4/5 years and give him 72 hours to say yes.

I don't think he's worth north of $20M either.

If they trade him send him to the Mets: DeGrom, Stro (8 innings of one hit ball last nigh with under 100 pitches) and him make a nice post season rotation and with the Yanks in serious jeopardy of missing out of playoffs this year, Cohen (the new owner, needs to go all in IMO) - as he can make a big splash this year.

So you'd rather let him walk away over a difference of $4 million/year? To what end? To pay some free agent not as good as Berrios $22 million/year because you have almost no starting pitching?

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

And 5 + more will pass that this off-season. By next year, it won't be top 15 $.

And just because his contract averages $22 million, doesn't mean it starts there. $18, 20, 22, 24, 26 over 5 years. He would likely never be in the top 10-15.

7 of those highest paid pitchers are FAs after this season and will likely have their salaries reduced, so yes he likely will.

I'm also not sure where you came up with the 5+ number, there doesn't appear to be many in line for a large pay increase after this offseason.

 

[howeda7]

7 of those highest paid pitchers are FAs after this season and will likely have their salaries reduced, so yes he likely will.

I'm also not sure where you came up with the 5+ number, there doesn't appear to be many in line for a large pay increase after this offseason.

Grienke and Scherzer will take pay cuts probably, but not below $22 million. In any event, Berrios wouldn't go immediately that high, so he would not be getting top 10 $ in 2022 and not likely in any year.

I was thinking of overall players, not just starters, so my bad. There are several (Story, Seager, Freeman, Correa, Jose Ramirez) who will be going above that amount. But the only pitcher likely to who's not already there is Syndergaard.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

So you'd rather let him walk away over a difference of $4 million/year? To what end? To pay some free agent not as good as Berrios $22 million/year because you have almost no starting pitching?

Good question. I would let him walk over $4M, as I don't think he wants to be here., just a gut feeling.

Interesting article today in The Athletic, where they said the Twins really have three options -

1. Sign him whenever.
2. Trade him for what you can get, although according to them, what teams are presently officering now are marginal big leaguers or low minors - they are being told that top prospects at Double A or Triple AAA are off limits at this point and this is league wide. Will be interesting to see if that changes.
3. Hang on to them, if you can't swing or don't want options 1 or 2. Why? You get 1.5 years ore service out of them (especially if you think you can reboot and compete next year) and the compensatory draft picks when they sign else where.

 

[howeda7]

Good question. I would let him walk over $4M, as I don't think he wants to be here., just a gut feeling.

Interesting article today in The Athletic, where they said the Twins really have three options -

1. Sign him whenever.
2. Trade him for what you can get, although according to them, what teams are presently officering now are marginal big leaguers or low minors - they are being told that top prospects at Double A or Triple AAA are off limits at this point and this is league wide. Will be interesting to see if that changes.
3. Hang on to them, if you can't swing or don't want options 1 or 2. Why? You get 1.5 years ore service out of them (especially if you think you can reboot and compete next year) and the compensatory draft picks when they sign else where.

They should sign him. They don't have anyone better to spend $ on.

Failing that, they should keep him and either take the pick, or trade him next year at the trade deadline if they're not contending.

The only way I would trade him now, is if I get a top 3 prospect, another top 20 and an established ML player. Think Balazovich, Ober and Arreaz.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

They should sign him. They don't have anyone better to spend $ on.

Failing that, they should keep him and either take the pick, or trade him next year at the trade deadline if they're not contending.

The only way I would trade him now, is if I get a top 3 prospect, another top 20 and an established ML player. Think Balazovich, Ober and Arreaz.

As I posted before, I think the Mets being in NYC and with the Yanks seriously in trouble for making the playoffs this year, they have to big; this scenario has rarely presented itself in the 23 years I've lived here and tis is the first year Cohen has owned the team- I became a Mets friend as baseball is a long azz season, there was no option to watch the Twins out here when I moved and I deplore the Yankees and the clownz who walk around with the 27 championships tees - the majority of them occurred before most of them were born.

The Mets have 4 Top 100 prospects with one being a pitcher. I think as the deadline gets closer, they'll end up being more aggressive (fingers crossed) - as I don't think Berrios will sign, even at your number.

 

[BleedGopher]

Win Twins!!

 

[howeda7]

Win Twins!!

Cruz and some pitcher I never heard of for the Rays #10 and #17 prospects, both pitchers. Not terrible, but both are already ~25 and "mid-rotation" guys at AAA.

 

[Iceland12]

Cruz and some pitcher I never heard of for the Rays #10 and #17 prospects, both pitchers. Not terrible, but both are already ~25 and "mid-rotation" guys at AAA.

Cruz has strung together a number of good years. Surprised they couldn't get more for him. Maybe being a Free Agent, and his age, brought the price down.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Cruz has strung together a number of good years. Surprised they couldn't get more for him. Maybe being a Free Agent, and his age, brought the price down.

This was actually a pretty good deal for just 1/2 year of Cruz. Joe Ryan has big strikeout potential. Almost 12 K per 9 this year. Both will probably get some starts this year.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Will be interesting to see if they included his Star Wars Bubblehead' in the deal.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Good trade.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

Time will tell, but I'm shocked at the return they got. Tampa's farm system was ranked tops in MLB to start the season. You got their 10th and 17th prospects for a guy who basically could only be traded to the AL. Of course there's a big hill to climb for both guys to be big league pitchers, but on paper, the Twins did very well.

 

[tikited]

Time will tell, but I'm shocked at the return they got. Tampa's farm system was ranked tops in MLB to start the season. You got their 10th and 17th prospects for a guy who basically could only be traded to the AL. Of course there's a big hill to climb for both guys to be big league pitchers, but on paper, the Twins did very well.

I agree but remember that Cruz was still easily the Twins best hitter.

 

[tmvander]

I like what I am seeing from Joe Ryan's numbers at least. At AAA he hasn't pitched a lot of innings this year (57) but that's probably expected after no ball last summer. In those 57 innings he has 75 K's and is holding opponents to a .175 average. .79 WHIP isn't bad and his ERA is 3.6.

Strotman isn't as much of a strikeout guy. Has pitched 58 innings with only 62 K's. His WHIP is higher at 1.4 but his ERA is still only at 3.3 (all AAA starts).

I'll be surprised if either of these guys are going to be aces but they could provide some depth for a rotation that looks to be a complete unknown. I'm sure they'll be better than Dobnak and Ober.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Ryan could be a mid-rotation starter. Strotman will wind up in the bullpen.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Ryan could be a mid-rotation starter. Strotman will wind up in the bullpen.

The Athletic FWIW, really liked the trade and thinks the Twins received excellent value for Nellie.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Strotman is coming off Tommy John surgery, and word is he is still getting his velocity and command back. Most "experts" I've seen think the Twins got good value.

On Berrios, LaVelle E. Neal was on with Barreiro and said that - supposedly - the Twins' asking price from other teams was: one current major league player and two of the other team's top 10 minor-league prospects. That's a steep price - especially when you consider that the CBA negotiations are looming and no one is sure if there will even be a 2022 season.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Hypothetically if there is no 2022 season, does it still count as a year in terms of contracts? Like would Berrios still be a free agent next winter or would everything get pushed back a year?

 

[howeda7]

Hypothetically if there is no 2022 season, does it still count as a year in terms of contracts? Like would Berrios still be a free agent next winter or would everything get pushed back a year?

He would still be a FA. It would be just like 2020 but prorated to zero games instead of 60. I suppose in theory it could be negotiated the other way, but I can't see the players going for that.

 

[howeda7]

Strotman is coming off Tommy John surgery, and word is he is still getting his velocity and command back. Most "experts" I've seen think the Twins got good value.

On Berrios, LaVelle E. Neal was on with Barreiro and said that - supposedly - the Twins' asking price from other teams was: one current major league player and two of the other team's top 10 minor-league prospects. That's a steep price - especially when you consider that the CBA negotiations are looming and no one is sure if there will even be a 2022 season.

As I said above, the equivalent of Arreaz, Belezovich and Ober. If they can get that, then by all means go ahead. If not, offer him 5/$110 and get him signed.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Jim Bowden, who now writes for The Athletic, weighs in very favorably on the trade -

Bowden: Grading the Nelson Cruz trade for the Rays and Twins

The Rays landed Cruz's impact bat and strong clubhouse presence. The Twins netted two pitching prospects, and might just be getting started.

theathletic.com

The Rays on Thursday acquired Nelson Cruz, one of the best designated hitters of the past decade, from the Twins in a four-player trade that sent Triple-A pitching prospects Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to Minnesota. Tampa Bay also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the deal.

Cruz’s impact bat, which can carry a team for weeks at a time, immediately improves the Rays offense and significantly boosts their postseason chances. The 17-year veteran also gives the Rays another important team leader and mentor for their young hitters.

Meanwhile, the Twins landed two young, middle- to back-end-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospects who are close to being big-league ready and are controllable at the major-league level through at least 2027.

Let’s break down and grade the trade for both sides.

Rays get​

Nelson Cruz, DH​

Age: 41
Height: 6-2 Weight: 230
Bats: R Throws: R
Service Time: 13.082
Contract: Signed through 2021 (1 year, $13 million)
2021 Stats: Slash: .294/.370/.537 2B: 13 HR: 19 RBI: 50 OPS+: 151

Cruz has been one of the best designated hitters in baseball since 2014, averaging more than 40 home runs and 100 RBIs per (162-game) season during that span. A seven-time All-Star, Cruz has won four Silver Slugger Awards and finished top 10 in the American League MVP voting five times. Cruz is a true leader in the clubhouse and a strong mentor for young hitters, which could really help young Rays players such as Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Wander Franco and Vidal Bruján. Oh, and he wears the most drip sunglasses in the league and has some of the best eyebrows the game has ever seen. Cruz will be a difference-maker for the Rays on and off the field the rest of the season.

Calvin Faucher, RHP​

Age: 25
Height: 6-1 Weight: 190
Service Time: 0.00
2021 Stats at Double-A Wichita: W-L: 1-1 ERA: 7.04 IP: 30 2/3 H: 39 BB: 24 SO: 42

Faucher was the Twins’ 10th-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft and signed for $10,000. He was a closer at UC Irvine, where he posted 20 saves in two seasons. He has an average fastball that arrives at 90 to 91 mph. His slider, which has good downward tilt, is his best offering. Command and control have been a problem for Faucher, who profiles as an organizational (non-prospect) player at this point in his career.

Summary: The Rays desperately needed a middle-of-the-order impact bat to ride for key stretches, and Cruz can definitely provide that over the final 10 weeks of the season. His presence will take pressure off some of their younger boppers like Meadows and Arozarena. Although the Rays paid a significant price for a one-dimensional player they’ll control through only the rest of the year, this deal was a no-brainer for them because they have so many pitching prospects they like better than Ryan and Strotman.

Rays’ trade grade: A​

What’s next: The Rays now need to turn their attention to the starting pitching market to see if they can land a veteran such as Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, Jon Gray of the Rockies or Pablo López of the Marlins.

---

Twins get​

Joe Ryan, RHP​

Age: 25
Height: 6-2 Weight: 205
Service Time: 0.00
2021 Stats at Triple-A Durham: W-L: 4-3 ERA: 3.63 IP: 57 H: 35 BB: 10 SO: 75

Ryan is the best pitching prospect heading back to Minnesota in the deal. He appears to be major-league ready; he just needs an opportunity. The 25-year-old right-hander has a mid-90s fastball with a deceptive delivery and can be dominating at the top of the strike zone. His changeup is his best secondary pitch. He also throws a slider and curveball that have flashed close to average at times. Ryan should be ready to make his big-league debut by September, and the development of his breaking balls will determine how successful he will be during his career for the Twins.

Drew Strotman, RHP​

Age: 24
Height: 6-3 Weight: 195
Service Time: 0.00
2021 Stats at Triple-A Durham: W-L: 7-2 ERA: 3.39 IP: 58 1/3 H: 50 BB: 33 SO: 62

Strotman underwent Tommy John in 2018 and because of it made only nine starts in 2019. But last year he pitched at the Rays’ alternate site and was so impressive they added him to the 40-man roster this past offseason. Because Tampa Bay’s farm system is so loaded, Strotman probably would have been dropped from the 40-man roster this offseason, which made it easier for the Rays to include him in this trade. Strotman’s fastball is mostly 91 to 94 mph, and he throws a cutter and hard slider. He profiles as a back-of-the rotation starter or a set-up reliever.

Summary: The Twins pulled the trigger on this deal eight days before the July 30 deadline because they believed they wouldn’t be able to get a better trade even if they waited until the end. There were not a lot of contending teams looking for designated hitters, as the Red Sox have J.D. Martinez, the Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton, the Astros have Yordan Alvarez and the White Sox will soon get Eloy Jiménez back from the injured list. Although Cruz would have fit nicely with other teams, including the A’s, Mariners and Blue Jays, the Rays wanted him the most. When Tampa Bay stepped up with such a strong offer of pitching prospects for a rental, the Twins had to close the deal.

Twins’ trade grade: B+​

What’s next: The Twins could be the headliner of this trade deadline. They can now fully focus on listening to offers for veteran position players such as third baseman Josh Donaldson and center fielder Byron Buxton (if they can’t reach a contract extension with him), starting pitchers José Berríos and Michael Pineda and relievers such as Taylor Rogers and Hansel Robles. If the Twins continue to make trades like this one, they could engineer one of the quickest and best rebuilds we’ve seen in years at this trade deadline.