Great article about prospects coming from the farm. Anyone see Miranda play in person yet?
Thought we could you some cheering up
Twins midseason top prospects update: Rising stocks, graduations and injuries
It's been a busy few months for the Twins' farm system, with breakouts from Jose Miranda, Josh Winder, Bailey Ober and more.
theathletic.com
Opinions about prospects will often change more rapidly than their big-league counterparts, because even a month of game action for a 20-year-old in the low minors dramatically increases the size of their career track record. Prospects are, almost by definition, less established players with smaller performance samples to evaluate, so it doesn’t take as much to change their perceived value or upside.
That’s especially true now, following the cancellation of the 2020 minor-league season due to COVID-19. No prospects got 2020 game action (save for the handful who played in a few major-league games), putting on hold the usual year-to-year or even month-to-month assessments of their potential and progress. Now that the minors are back in full swing and there are nearly three months of play to evaluate, prospect stocks are very much on the move.
It’s roughly midseason in the minors as well, so let’s pause and take a look at how the Twins’ farm system has changed in terms of stocks rising and falling, graduations, departures, arrivals and injuries. It’s been a busy few months.
Graduations and departures
Six of the Twins’ top-40 prospects
coming into the season have exhausted their prospect status by reaching 130 at-bats or 50 innings as major leaguers.
1.
Alex Kirilloff, COF/1B
3.
Trevor Larnach, COF
6.
Ryan Jeffers, C
10.
Jorge Alcala, RHP
23.
Lewis Thorpe, LHP
27.
Cody Stashak, RHP
Fellow preseason top-40 prospects
Gilberto Celestino (13),
Ben Rortvedt (28),
Bailey Ober (29) and
Nick Gordon (37) are on the verge of doing so as well.
Kirilloff is still a really good 23-year-old hitter whether or not he’s technically a prospect, so losing that label doesn’t change anyone’s long-term outlook or have any real affect, positive or negative, on the team’s future. It does, however, mean the Twins’ placement in any “farm system” ratings will tumble quite a bit. Such is life when your top prospects start reaching the majors. It’s a good thing.
In addition to the graduations, two other top-40 prospects,
Dakota Chalmers (25) and
Travis Blankenhorn (32), were dropped from the 40-man roster and claimed off waivers for nothing in return. They were each subsequently placed back on waivers by their new teams and passed through unclaimed, showing the Twins weren’t alone in viewing them as marginal prospects at this point.
(For more on how Kirilloff and Larnach are adjusting to the big leagues, and being pitched like established veterans, click here.)
Arrivals
For now this section includes only draft picks, although the list will likely grow substantially between now and the July 30 trade deadline when the Twins
trade veterans for prospects.
No. 26 pick
Chase Petty and No. 36 pick
Noah Miller will almost surely find themselves ranked among the Twins’ top-10 prospects going into next season, but for now I’ll hold off on slotting them into specific spots. Most draft classes place a handful of prospects on the next year’s top-40 list, but it’s generally not worth speculating about exactly where until they actually start playing games.
For some context, last year’s first-round pick,
Aaron Sabato, ranked No. 8 on this year’s top-40 list, and second-round pick
Alerick Soularie ranked No. 19. Given those many graduations noted above, Petty cracking next year’s top five isn’t out of the question if he has a strong pro debut and Miller figures to land somewhere in the 6-12 range.
(For more on Petty and Miller, and why the Twins strayed far from their previous college-heavy draft approach to pick them, click here.)
Injuries
Much like the major-league roster, the Twins’ farm system has been hit hard by the injury bug this season, with the following top-40 prospects currently on the minor-league injured list:
2.
Royce Lewis, SS
4.
Jhoan Duran, RHP
7.
Matt Canterino, RHP
12.
Matt Wallner, COF
17.
Blayne Enlow, RHP
18.
Edwar Colina, RHP
19. Alerick Soularie, COF
23. Lewis Thorpe, LHP
34.
Luis Rijo, RHP
Lewis had season-ending knee surgery at the start of spring training. Enlow had elbow surgery in June, likely knocking him out for most of 2022 as well. Colina (elbow) and Soularie (foot) haven’t played this season. Rijo (forearm) logged all of one inning. Duran (elbow) has been shut down, possibly for the season. Canterino (elbow) and Wallner (wrist) haven’t played since May.
You get the idea.
Injuries are part of the deal with developing prospects, and young pitchers were particularly at risk this season after almost 20 months without any game action, making it even harder than usual to build up workloads. But it’s a long list, and perhaps seems even longer because the lack of a 2020 minor-league season kept anyone from getting hurt last year.
For more on Lewis’ preseason injury and months-long return timetable, click here.)
Rising stocks
After more than a year spent developing only behind the scenes, these Twins prospects have carried those improvements into game action and raised their profiles considerably during the first half.
Jose Miranda, IF (preseason ranking: No. 30)
Passed over by all 29 other teams after the Twins left him unprotected from the Rule 5 draft this winter, Miranda had one of the biggest first-half breakouts of any prospect in baseball. He came into this season as a career .258 hitter with a .395 slugging percentage in 356 games, all in the low minors, but Miranda has been crushing Double-A and Triple-A pitching for three months now.
In years past, Twins officials often touted Miranda as having more upside than his modest production suggested, pointing to his low strikeout rates and strong swing mechanics as likely to lead to more success eventually. But no one could have seen this much of a leap coming. He’s hit .341/.410/.610 with 18 homers in 61 games, striking out just 37 times while dramatically upping his walk rate.
Twins coaches challenged Miranda to become more selective, believing his elite contact skills actually hurt him at times because he was so able to get his bat on non-strikes. Slightly toning down his aggression has worked wonders, allowing the 2016 second-round pick to unlock his full potential at 23. Miranda plays all over the infield and could take over at third base if
Josh Donaldson is traded.
Josh Winder, RHP (preseason ranking: No. 15)
Winder, like, Miranda, impressed the Twins with dramatic improvements last year while working behind the scenes and has carried that over to game action this season. He threw in the low 90s as a seventh-round pick in 2018, but now the 6-foot-5 right-hander’s fastball regularly reaches the mid-90s and he’s fine-tuned his off-speed pitches as well.
Promoted to Triple A recently after 10 dominant Double-A starts to begin the season, Winder has a 2.17 ERA in 62 innings overall, striking out 75, walking 13 and holding opponents to a .197 batting average. Chosen as the Twins’ lone rep for the Futures Game, the 24-year-old’s projected profile has transformed from strike-throwing mid-rotation starter to hard-throwing frontline starter.
Bailey Ober, RHP (preseason ranking: No. 29)
Ober is in the major-league rotation, but he’s still a few starts from graduating out of prospect status and no pitcher at any level of the Twins organization has taken a larger step forward this season. Once an intriguing prospect with video game-like numbers in the minors despite a high-80s fastball, he got into better shape, smoothed out his mechanics and now throws 92-94 mph consistently.
That velocity bump
is a game-changer for Ober, who already had elite control and a deep off-speed pitch mix, plus the advantage of higher perceived velocity due to being 6-9. Ober hasn’t topped 100 innings in a season since college way back in 2014, so the Twins will limit his workload for now and try to keep him healthy enough for the raw stuff enhancements to pay off.
Jovani Moran, LHP (preseason ranking: No. 38)
Known previously for his great changeup and inconsistent overall track record, Moran has upped his fastball velocity this season and taken a huge step forward at Double A. Often working two innings at a time, the 24-year-old left-hander has a 1.91 ERA and a jaw-dropping 64 strikeouts in 38 innings of relief, and he’s trimmed his walk rate to a more manageable 3.3 per nine innings.
Moran’s changeup has always been a huge weapon against right-handed hitters, but he often struggled to shut down lefties like a southpaw should. This season he’s held righties to a .082 batting average and lefties to .154, showing the skills to be a high-leverage bullpen option rather than merely a middle reliever. First he’ll need to be tested at Triple A, but Moran is close to the majors.
Louie Varland, RHP (preseason ranking: N/A)
Varland, drafted in the 15th round out of Concordia University in 2019, used the downtime to increase his velocity from 93-95 to 95-97 mph and sharpen his slider. He overpowered Low-A hitters to begin the season, posting a 2.09 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 47 innings, and the 23-year-old right-hander from St. Paul got a well-deserved promotion to High A earlier this week.
Edouard Julien, IF/OF (preseason ranking: N/A)
Julien was known for being a patient hitter at Auburn, but he’s taken his plate discipline to another level. Making his pro debut two years after being picked in the 18th round, Julien leads minor-league baseball with 65 walks and a .474 on-base percentage, including 15 walks in 13 games since a promotion to High A. He’s also hit .285 with 24 steals while bouncing around defensively.
Jordan Gore, RHP (preseason ranking: N/A)
Gore was a switch-hitting college shortstop when the Twins picked him in the 19th round of the 2017 draft, but he slugged just .341 in three seasons. Talked into giving pitching a try, Gore was assigned to the High-A bullpen and racked up 58 strikeouts in 40 innings to earn a Double-A promotion earlier this week. He’s already 26, but Gore has a mid-90s fastball and swing-and-miss splitter.
Spencer Steer, IF (preseason ranking: No. 24)
Steer profiled as a high-contact, low-power utility man coming out of Oregon in 2019, but the Twins drafted him in the third round believing they could tap into more power. Mission accomplished, as Steer has 14 homers (and 40 walks) in 58 games at High A and Double A this season after hitting a grand total of 16 homers in 227 college and pro games from 2017 to 2019.
Yennier Cano, RHP (preseason ranking: N/A)
Cano was initially paired with Moran as the late-inning Double-A relief duo, but the 27-year-old right-hander got a promotion to St. Paul last month while Moran remains in Wichita for now. Cano, who was signed from Cuba in 2019 for $750,000, has a 2.37 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 30 innings between the levels thanks to improved command of a mid-90s fastball and sharp slider.
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