All Things 2021 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I've posted this before, but it bears repeating. Falvine haven't selected a pitcher with any of their first three picks in any draft since they've been here. I'd argue it's much easier to find a bat on the open market than it is to find a pitcher, especially if you don't want to grossly overpay. Thus, that kind of oversight on draft strategy befuddles me.

Often times, they also take less time to make an impact as well at the MLB level - see Vandy pitchers and their track records.

 

[howeda7]

I've posted this before, but it bears repeating. Falvine haven't selected a pitcher with any of their first three picks in any draft since they've been here. I'd argue it's much easier to find a bat on the open market than it is to find a pitcher, especially if you don't want to grossly overpay. Thus, that kind of oversight on draft strategy befuddles me.

Drafting a pitcher in the 1st round is for amateurs. The real value is finding the next Cory Kluber. I think Falvey fancies himself too smart for his own good sometimes.

 

[From the Parkinglot]

Drafting a pitcher in the 1st round is for amateurs. The real value is finding the next Cory Kluber. I think Falvey fancies himself too smart for his own good sometimes.

I think both of the GM’s are too smart for their own good. They are always thinking they can find the next steal. What the hell was the pint of paying Matt Shoemaker when you could have his pitched Dobnek after you resigned him. If you look at the relieves they have traded away or not resigned since they stated here it’s a pretty amazing downfall. Not to mention the Ynoa kid that’s 23 and pitching lights out for Atlanta right now. He was traded away for 1 start of Jamie Gracia, who you then traded for two pitchers who you DFA’d.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, more than any other sport. It's easier to project position players than it is pitchers. There are so many busts in the first few rounds of the draft for all positions, especially pitchers.

In 2016 the Twins selected Tyler Jay 6th overall, who's now 27 and still has never pitched in the majors. They drafted Kohl Stewart 4th overall in 2013, who has been a bust and struggled in the majors with limited appearances.

Even in drafts where several really good pitchers were drafted in the 1st, mixed in are several pitchers who you have never even heard of.

 

[howeda7]

No Sano or Cave in the line-up tonight. At least Rocco seems to recognize this series as the do-or-die it is.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Another game where they can’t hit in the clutch and the bullpen sucks balls. Maeda was pitching well, only at 87 pitches but yeah let’s turn it over to the bullpen.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Seriously WTF

 

[From the Parkinglot]

Another game where they can’t hit in the clutch and the bullpen sucks balls. Maeda was pitching well, only at 87 pitches but yeah let’s turn it over to the bullpen.

I just don’t understand it. Not only is your bullpen bad. You are one game into a 16 day 17 game streak without a day off. You have now royally screwed your already terrible bullpen by taking Maeda out. He wasn’t going to pitch for 5 days so why not let him go one more inning or two and another 30 pitches. At least then you’re losing with your best players Instead or losing with junk pitchers on the mound. Now Alcala will have to be sent down to bring up some other trash pitcher that doesn’t deserve to pitch in the majors.

The way the front office has developed pitchers really needs to be spotlighted. They have developed no good pitchers and there are no pitchers in the system. Anyone doubt me go look at the Saints team filled with a bunch of never beens.

 

[From the Parkinglot]

I also loved pitch hitting Kyle Garlick who is a career journey man at the age of 29 over a guy in Larnech who may or may not be a corner outfield of your future. I mean we are 8 games under if only I don’t let my future lefty hit and put this stiff in we can get to 7 games under.

total system failure. Set up the rummage sale and everything must go.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I just don’t understand it. Not only is your bullpen bad. You are one game into a 16 day 17 game streak without a day off. You have now royally screwed your already terrible bullpen by taking Maeda out. He wasn’t going to pitch for 5 days so why not let him go one more inning or two and another 30 pitches. At least then you’re losing with your best players Instead or losing with junk pitchers on the mound. Now Alcala will have to be sent down to bring up some other trash pitcher that doesn’t deserve to pitch in the majors.

The way the front office has developed pitchers really needs to be spotlighted. They have developed no good pitchers and there are no pitchers in the system. Anyone doubt me go look at the Saints team filled with a bunch of never beens.

Duran and Balazovic are both top 100 prospects. There’s a few intriguing arms in the system.

 

[From the Parkinglot]

Well one is pitching for single A Cedar Rapids and the other is on I’m the injuried lost for the saints. I will believe it when I see it.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

I don't even know what to say anymore. Someone in that front office has to see the incompetence and total lack of leadership in that dugout.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Latest mailbag from The Athletic (good info)-

Twins mailbag: Comeback odds, Miguel Sanó's future, blaming Rocco Baldelli and trade ideas

Who will the Twins look to deal if they are sellers at the deadline? And how much do they miss James Rowson? Answers to these and more.

theathletic.com

Ugly bullpen meltdowns, injuries and futility in extra innings have dominated the Twins’ season, leaving an understandably frustrated fan base with tons of questions about where this team goes from here and how it got into this mess.

Let’s open the mailbag and see if we can make sense of these past six weeks.

---

Please explain why I should not root for Rocco Baldelli to be fired after every loss? — Anthony M.

I picked this one, but there were many versions of basically this same question.

No manager of a 12-21 team in baseball history has ever avoided criticism and Baldelli shouldn’t be the first, by any means. However, it’s surprising to see how many fans want to attribute the bulk of the Twins’ many struggles to Baldelli, if only because baseball managers are rarely perceived as having the same level of influence or value as NFL or NBA head coaches, let alone as their own players.

Beyond that, Baldelli is in his third season, having won division titles in his first two. He was voted AL Manager of the Year in 2019, received votes for the same award last season and had, going into Tuesday’s game, a .587 career winning percentage that’s 12th best in MLB history among managers with at least as many games. And now, after a bad six weeks, tons of people want him fired?

I’ve questioned a fair amount of Baldelli’s in-game strategy this season, but the idea that he’s anywhere near the top of the list of places to assign blame for this start strikes me as misguided at best. It’s easier to just blame one person for the entire mess, but good or bad, since when are managers more responsible for the performances of players than the players themselves? It makes no sense.

Baldelli didn’t sign Alexander Colomé and he didn’t tell Tyler Duffey to cease being effective. How is anyone supposed to have a good bullpen with, at most, three non-flammable options? Similarly, why is he to blame for Miguel Sanó, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco falling off? And what’s been more damaging in extra innings, Baldelli not ordering a few bunts or an entire lineup hitting .130?

I’d never suggest that a manager is immune from criticism, or even harsh criticism, but Baldelli can only push the buttons and pull the strings he has available to him. Unless you’re prepared to give managers more credit than star players for successful seasons — which almost no one in baseball ever does, me included — don’t act like they’re automatically the driving force behind poor stretches.

“My players make me look smart or stupid,” Tom Kelly said in 1991. “I just try not to screw things up. You’ve got to have the horses to go to the post.”

Kelly should know. He won two World Series titles in five years and then went eight seasons without a winning record from 1993 to 2000.

How anyone can look at this Twins team and think Baldelli has had “the horses” is beyond me.

Are there examples of teams starting out this badly and still winning their division? Any that are instructive or informative for what might contribute to it happening for the Twins this season? — Joel S.

Plenty of examples in baseball history, although it probably makes more sense to focus on recent years because of the various changes in playoff formats. For instance, the Washington Nationals won the World Series just two seasons ago after starting 14-19 (and worse, 19-31). Five teams since 2000 started 12-21 or worse and went on to make the playoffs.

Limiting this to recent Twins history, the 2006 Twins started 14-19, didn’t get above .500 for good until late June and sat 12 games back in the AL Central as late as mid-July. They won 96 games and the division title. Obviously, you can’t count on that happening again, but playing poorly for 30 or 40 games of a 162-game season isn’t a death sentence.

Have the Twins ever had this bad of a stretch at some point during a season in which they made the playoffs? — Jacob L.

Definitely. Starting a season this poorly gets considerably more attention than having a similarly poor stretch in the middle of a season. Those can sometimes just blend into the six-month grind, whereas there’s no masking a 12-21 start. They had at least one stretch of 12-21 or worse and still made the playoffs in 1970, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2017. It’s relatively common.

With Sanó continuing to struggle, at what point does management step in and make a change? — Chad A.

As of early last week, the Twins were delaying Sanó’s return from the injured list despite his strained hamstring being healed and I was fairly convinced that they were preparing to greatly reduce his role. But then back-to-back-to-back injuries to Luis Arraez, Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton all but forced them to change those plans and now Sanó is playing regularly again.

This is purely hypothetical given the Twins’ never-ending injuries, but if they somehow got all of their preferred hitting options available at the same time, my guess is that Sanó would be a part-time player who is in the lineup mostly against left-handed pitchers. But until Kirilloff is healthy and the Twins have enough quality outfield alternatives to use Kirilloff at first base, Sanó will play regularly.

Sanó is owed about $9 million for the remainder of this season and $9 million for next season, plus a $14 million team option or $2.75 million buyout for 2023. Even if the Twins are ready to move on, which I think is a very real possibility, they’d likely have to eat a sizable portion of the remaining $20.75 million he’s owed just to trade him for a marginal return.

It may come to that, either at the July 30 trade deadline or this offseason, but in the meantime the Twins have reason to give him one last chance to get back on track, both because their other lineup options are lacking due to injuries and because Sanó might be able to recoup some of that missing value. He’s hit just .185/.284/.415 since the start of 2020 but had a monster second half in 2019.

Are there any moves that can be made to help the bullpen? — Anthony M.

Yes. I detailed many of them in my recent article breaking down the bullpen’s shocking struggles.

The good news, or at least the less-bad news, is that fixing a terrible bullpen is generally easier than fixing a terrible rotation or a terrible lineup. Good relief pitchers are less expensive than good starting pitchers or good position players, in terms of both money needed to sign them and prospects needed to trade for them. Plus, there are always good relievers shopped at the trade deadline.

That doesn’t mean the cost to acquire one or two of those good relievers won’t cause Twins fans to wince, especially if they’re a two-month rental unlikely to contribute more than 15-20 innings. But raising the talent level of a struggling bullpen, or at least bringing in a new set of talented arms to replace the under-performing ones, should be plenty doable, if not now then by mid-June.

Where are Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s developmental arms? I don’t see any arms anywhere close. — Nicholas C.

It takes time to develop young pitching. Falvey and Levine took over the Twins in 2017. Their first draft was in June of 2017, meaning any high school pitcher picked then would be 21 years old now. Not many 21-year-old arms are ready to thrive in the majors, particularly after having an entire minor-league season canceled by COVID-19.

Midway through their second season at the helm, Falvey and Levine made the trade for Jhoan Duran, then a 20-year-old High-A pitcher in Arizona’s farm system. Three years later Duran is the Twins’ top pitching prospect and a big part of their future rotation plans, but he’s also still just 23 and has only seven career starts above High A, including zero at Triple A.

This is the fifth season with Falvey and Levine in charge, which means the young arms they drafted, signed or traded for in the first couple years are just nearing the big leagues. It’s also true that they’ve used the majority of their high draft picks on hitters rather than pitchers, selecting Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, Ryan Jeffers, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner and Aaron Sabato in the top two rounds.

Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Cole Sands and Josh Winder are the Twins’ top five pitching prospects and each of them could be ready for the majors by the end of this year. Jorge Alcala is another mid-2018 trade pickup who looks like a keeper, albeit as a reliever. There’s young pitching on the way soon, but waiting for it to actually arrive always requires patience.

When do the Twins realize Jake Cave is not an everyday player? — Mark P.

I can’t say I fully understand Cave’s continued presence on the roster given how poorly he’s hit since last season and how much better a right-handed hitter would fit in his role given the other outfield options. That poor fit is something that I’ve written about for two years, separate from any thoughts specifically about Cave, who has hit .199 in 72 games since 2020.

However, it’s somewhat similar to the Sanó situation discussed previously, in that any plans of scaling back Cave’s role or perhaps even parting ways with him were put on hold by injuries. Kepler manning center field every day is clearly something the Twins would like to avoid and Cave is the only other center fielder Baldelli has on the roster. Again, the manager can only push the buttons in front of him.

Keon Broxton is the starting center fielder at Triple A and as a right-handed hitter he’d be a better stylistic fit than Cave in theory, but Broxton didn’t play in the majors at all last season after hitting .167 in 2019 and .179 in 2018. He’s also 31 and has had basically one good half-season in the majors, way back in 2016, so the idea of Broxton as an outfield upgrade is somewhat iffy.

Are the Twins missing the work of hitting coach James Rowson, who left the team after guiding the Bomba Squad in 2019? — Paul R.

Rowson was a very good hitting coach, which is why the Marlins lured him away with more money and a promotion to bench coach/offensive coordinator. There’s no real way to quantify the impact of a hitting coach, so naturally, with the Twins’ lineup failing to come anywhere close to its 2019 production, the loss of Rowson is something on which many fans have focused.

I don’t doubt that the Twins miss Rowson, perhaps a lot, but it should also be noted that Rudy Hernandez was the assistant hitting coach back then, working specifically with several players who had 2019 breakouts, and he remains with the team now. It’s also worth noting that the Marlins rank 25th in OPS since hiring Rowson, including 24th this season, both ranks much worse than the Twins’ ranks.

I do wonder what would have happened had former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton been hired as the Pirates manager a month earlier. Rowson seemingly was the natural in-house replacement. Instead, the Pirates bringing in a new front office delayed their manager search for a month, and in the meantime Rowson was hired away by the Marlins, leaving the Twins with two spots to fill.

Who do you see getting moved at the trade deadline if this team doesn’t turn it around soon? — Ian B.

I hesitate to even get into this in May, but if the Twins are indeed sellers as the July 30 deadline nears, the most likely players to get traded are impending free agents (Nelson Cruz, Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Hansel Robles) and those with just one more year of team control (Byron Buxton, José Berríos, Taylor Rogers, Duffey). And, for reasons outlined earlier, Sanó as well.

Except here’s the thing: Rarely do sellers actually have that many good players to sell. Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine the Twins not valuing Buxton, Berríos and Rogers highly for 2022. In other words, most teams with as many assets as the Twins don’t end up being sellers, because by the time late July rolls around they’ve gotten at least somewhat back on track and aren’t blowing it up.

I know you’ve written articles on it before, but do you think the Twins have changed their approach on extensions for José Berríos and Buxton? — Tony G.

They’ve offered long-term deals to both Berríos and Buxton in past offseasons, but the players have seen them as too team-friendly. And now, with free agency around the corner following 2022 for each player, the window to get something done is probably either closing or already closed. Once a player is this close to free agency, there’s little incentive to negotiate with one team instead of 30.

Do you see Polanco’s career being closer to Cristian Guzmán, Luis Rivas or Eduardo Escobar by the end of it? — Bennett P.

This is Polanco’s age-27 season. Here are the career hitting numbers for those four players through age 27:

THROUGH AGE 27	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Jorge Polanco	.276	.334	.431	.765	106
Eduardo Escobar	.253	.298	.381	.679	86
Luis Rivas	.262	.307	.385	.692	80
Cristian Guzman	.260	.298	.374	.672	73

Those numbers should make it obvious why the Twins are being patient with Polanco as he tries to get back on track after ankle surgeries the past two offseasons. It’s not easy to find above-average hitters who’re also capable middle infielders, and Polanco’s career stats blow away the other three through the same age. Even his 88 OPS+ while mostly struggling since 2020 beats the other three.

Also of note: Polanco has batted .309/.377/.500 with eight extra-base hits and seven walks in his last 20 games. He’s been putting in the work to get his pre-injury mechanics back.

Willians Astudillo’s batting average is higher than his on-base percentage. Has that ever been true of a player qualified for the batting title? — Alex A.

It’s never happened, but a few hitters have come close.

It may seem counter-intuitive that someone’s on-base percentage can be lower than their batting average since AVG is part of OBP, but it’s possible thanks to a quirk in baseball’s record-keeping rules. Sacrifice flies count against OBP but not against AVG, so a player with more sac flies than walks (and hit by pitches) would have a lower OBP than AVG.

Astudillo fits that description right now, with zero walks or hit by pitches and one sac fly. So he’s got a .324 batting average and a .319 on-base percentage.

Ozzie Guillen came close a couple of times for the White Sox. He hit .273 with a .284 OBP in 1991 and then hit .263 with a .273 OBP in 1996. Ivan Rodríguez hit .281 with a .294 OBP for the Tigers in 2007. There are a handful of other hitters in that same AVG/OBP range for a season or two.

Astudillo has a .300 batting average and .319 on-base percentage in 386 career plate appearances, totaling seven walks, six hit-by-pitches and six sacrifice flies.

How much money would we have made if we bet the Twins would be 12-21 after 33 games? — Mark B.

Enough to pay for some really good therapy, at least. And maybe have enough left over for some even better booze.

 

[howeda7]

I also loved pitch hitting Kyle Garlick who is a career journey man at the age of 29 over a guy in Larnech who may or may not be a corner outfield of your future. I mean we are 8 games under if only I don’t let my future lefty hit and put this stiff in we can get to 7 games under.

total system failure. Set up the rummage sale and everything must go.

I can't really criticize that particular move. Larnach is a lefty. The Sox brought in a lefty. Garlick has been crushing lefties and Larnach has yet to get a hit. It made sense.

In the short term, release the obvious trash who is not helping (Sano, Cave, Shoemaker) and get Rooker, Broxton and Thorpe up instead.

Barring a miracle, Cruz, Simmons, Pineda, Happ, Duffy, Robles and Thielbar should all be dealt by the trade deadline. I'd listen on Meada too.

 

[From the Parkinglot]

I can't really criticize that particular move. Larnach is a lefty. The Sox brought in a lefty. Garlick has been crushing lefties and Larnach has yet to get a hit. It made sense.

In the short term, release the obvious trash who is not helping (Sano, Cave, Shoemaker) and get Rooker, Broxton and Thorpe up instead.

Barring a miracle, Cruz, Simmons, Pineda, Happ, Duffy, Robles and Thielbar should all be dealt by the trade deadline. I'd listen on Meada too.

Meada is gone too but not sure you get back a lot unfortunately…I would try to move Donaldson too but not sure many people want a 35 year old with 45 million left…

my thing is I want my young players getting all the at bats whether it is lefty on lefty or not. Larnach is the future not Garlick. I can give it a pass now but once they are 20 games below .500 in June it has to change.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I'm really starting to wonder about Wes Johnson. He was advertised as being able to help pitchers find more velocity on the fast ball - and he did seem to show results with some guys - but now we see people like Duffey apparently regressing. Duffey, Stashak and others are seeing drops in their average velocity.

Plus, Johnson is in love with the breaking ball. It's like he wants everyone to just throw sliders every pitch.

almost every team in MLB has multiple guys in the pen throwing 95+. The Twins have a bunch of guy who come in and nibble at the corners with breaking balls. drives me nuts.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

Maeda makes 3 million. They'll hold that contract as long as they can.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Seriously WTF

 

[howeda7]

Meada is gone too but not sure you get back a lot unfortunately…I would try to move Donaldson too but not sure many people want a 35 year old with 45 million left…

my thing is I want my young players getting all the at bats whether it is lefty on lefty or not. Larnach is the future not Garlick. I can give it a pass now but once they are 20 games below .500 in June it has to change.

Maeda is under contract for two more years for pretty cheap. I would keep him unless you get good value back. He's not the ace he was last year, but he's still a good #3/4 I think.

 

[boofbonser]

Seriously WTF

The still shot is pretty great too. Painful, but hilarious.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Well one is pitching for single A Cedar Rapids and the other is on I’m the injuried lost for the saints. I will believe it when I see it.

Well when you see it they won’t be in the minor league system anymore. Anyone “in the system” is kinda in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” boat.

 

[GophersInIowa]

 

[From the Parkinglot]

Maeda is under contract for two more years for pretty cheap. I would keep him unless you get good value back. He's not the ace he was last year, but he's still a good #3/4 I think.

I agree but the cheapness and his 2020 year may help him to become the best trade chip the twins have. I am scared that this is a 5 year March through the desert with the looted prospects especially the pitchers and bullpen arms.

 

[gophersfan]

The Chicago White Sox are pouring it on. 9-3.

 

[From the Parkinglot]

The Chicago White Sox are pouring it on. 9-3.

But he saved his best relievers for tomorrow so far.

 

[howeda7]

If we lose tomorrow, the fire sale begins. And for God sake, please cut Sano and Cave already.

 

[Ope3]

If we lose tomorrow, the fire sale begins. And for God sake, please cut Sano and Cave already.

1 win or loss at this point is not going to move the needle. I look for a gradual sell off of usable assets from Memorial Day up to the Trade Deadline.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

1 win or loss at this point is not going to move the needle. I look for a gradual sell off of usable assets from Memorial Day up to the Trade Deadline.

No, is where we need to maximize our acumen and patience and maybe get a nice haul for Nellie - that sucks, but how much longer can Stanton say healthy for the Yanks? LOL

 

[howeda7]

1 win or loss at this point is not going to move the needle. I look for a gradual sell off of usable assets from Memorial Day up to the Trade Deadline.

If they lose today they are 10 games back. Win and it's 8 and you can at least pretend for another week.

Most teams are not looking to add yet. It will probably be after 7/1 before much movement. But at least play the kids. Gordon over Simmons. Rooker over Sano. etc.

 

[howeda7]

No, is where we need to maximize our acumen and patience and maybe get a nice haul for Nellie - that sucks, but how much longer can Stanton say healthy for the Yanks? LOL

You're not getting a major haul for a half season of a 40 year old DH.