All Things 2021-2022 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Not going out on much of a limb there. If Opening Day is before May 1st, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

May be a bonanza for the remaining free agents since there could be a feeding frenzy to sign them! I don't think this favors us.
Looks like Jax may be in the rotation again!

 

[Ope3]

Not going out on much of a limb there. If Opening Day is before May 1st, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Yes, I was being facetious. A few weeks ago I indicated if they play by what would be the All Star Break, I would be pleasantly surprised.

I think most likely is a 60 game sprint like 2020 (owners will be motivated the threat of losing Post Season TV bucks), and no season at all is at least possible.

 

[howeda7]

Yes, I was being facetious. A few weeks ago I indicated if they play by what would be the All Star Break, I would be pleasantly surprised.

I think most likely is a 60 game sprint like 2020 (owners will be motivated the threat of losing Post Season TV bucks), and no season at all is at least possible.

If I'm the players and it gets to that point, I force them to cancel the season.

 

[Ope3]

If I'm the players and it gets to that point, I force them to cancel the season.

Yes quite possible, high stakes Game of Chicken at that point.

 

[forever a gopher]

If I'm the players and it gets to that point, I force them to cancel the season.

In general, I would agree. Tough spot for a player at the middle to end of their prime- they lost a good chunk of 2020, and now may lose some or all of 2022. Tough to work your butt off, only to have to spend your prime sitting on your couch at home.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

I was talking to my buddy about what the Saints roster will look like.

I said a bunch of 2nd & 3rd year minor league guys who should really be in Wichita or Cedar Rapids, and all the non-roster invitees to camp.

 

[Ope3]

In general, I would agree. Tough spot for a player at the middle to end of their prime- they lost a good chunk of 2020, and now may lose some or all of 2022. Tough to work your butt off, only to have to spend your prime sitting on your couch at home.

On a SKOR North Podcast today, Mackey mentioned some stat that in the past 10 years players salaries have increased about 12%. In the same time frame, the value of MLB franchises has increased well over 300%.

That seems worth digging their spikes in to get a much better shake in the CBA.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

the players' big issue is raising the minimum salary and trying to get to free agency sooner, to drive up salaries quicker for younger players.

But, they still are 100% opposed to any kind of salary cap - even a salary floor.

so they want more money for the younger players with no cap or limit on how much the veterans can earn.

And they want some type of penalty for teams that "tank" - like taking away revenue sharing or draft picks. also want the luxury tax to go way up, so teams can have higher payrolls without paying the penalty.

so, it comes down to "give us everything we want, and you get nothing." and then they accuse the owners of 'negotiating in bad faith.'

 

[TruthSeeker]

the players' big issue is raising the minimum salary and trying to get to free agency sooner, to drive up salaries quicker for younger players.

But, they still are 100% opposed to any kind of salary cap - even a salary floor.

so they want more money for the younger players with no cap or limit on how much the veterans can earn.

And they want some type of penalty for teams that "tank" - like taking away revenue sharing or draft picks. also want the luxury tax to go way up, so teams can have higher payrolls without paying the penalty.

so, it comes down to "give us everything we want, and you get nothing." and then they accuse the owners of 'negotiating in bad faith.'

Not true. They're accepting the luxury tax cap, but they want it raised $40 million.

That's extremely reasonable if revenues have increased 300%.

 

[Ope3]

Not true. They're accepting the luxury tax cap, but they want it raised $40 million.

That's extremely reasonable if revenues have increased 300%.

Just to be clear, the way I understood the 300% figure, it was value of the franchise (essentially they were selling 3X as much from 10 yrs ago), not that net or gross revenues were up that much.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Just to be clear, the way I understood the 300% figure, it was value of the franchise (essentially they were selling 3X as much from 10 yrs ago), not that net or gross revenues were up that much.

Right. 2010 revenue was $6.14 billion. 2019 revenue was $10.37 billion.

That's roughly a 70% increase. The entire ask by the MLBPA seems completely reasonable when compared to the revenue increase.

They want less than a 20% increase to the luxury tax, and I think a 50% increase in minimum pay.

The owners' position is a joke. It'd be a complete slap in the face and non-starter for me if I were part of the MLBPA.

 

[Dano564]

It's an interesting situation anytime these lockouts / strikes occur.

The players have about a 3-5 year lifespan of earning potential. That's 18 - 30 months of productive wage earning periods.

The owners are all in the 60's and 70's and many have been living their best life already for 20-30 years, with another 20-30 years of residual income blowing at their back.

Each month the players hold out, they are hurting their earning potential substantially. For the owners, this should just be one of their many revenue streams, not to mention, their net worth, even without playing is probably still increasing during this negotiating period.

No owner that I know of has ever had to sell a franchise because they spent too much money on a player.

 

[Dano564]

Oh, and I'd be really okay with baseball not starting until May 1. I think it would be better to play a shorter season.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

It's an interesting situation anytime these lockouts / strikes occur.

The players have about a 3-5 year lifespan of earning potential. That's 18 - 30 months of productive wage earning periods.

The owners are all in the 60's and 70's and many have been living their best life already for 20-30 years, with another 20-30 years of residual income blowing at their back.

Each month the players hold out, they are hurting their earning potential substantially. For the owners, this should just be one of their many revenue streams, not to mention, their net worth, even without playing is probably still increasing during this negotiating period.

No owner that I know of has ever had to sell a franchise because they spent too much money on a player.

No doubt. Honestly, I'd be fine if they took a couple of years off. Baseball has always been adept at figuring out new ways to drive away fans. This won't go over very well with the fan that has other options

 

[ecoperson]

On a SKOR North Podcast today, Mackey mentioned some stat that in the past 10 years players salaries have increased about 12%. In the same time frame, the value of MLB franchises has increased well over 300%.

That seems worth digging their spikes in to get a much better shake in the CBA.

Comparing the percentage increase in salaries versus franchise value is not the most appropriate comparison. Value is speculative while salaries are real costs. It's like suggesting that Amazon employees should all be making $500K instead of $50K annually because Amazon stock has gone up 10x over the last decade. A more appropriate measure for comparison would be how much revenue for MLB franchises has gone up.

 

[Ope3]

Comparing the percentage increase in salaries versus franchise value is not the most appropriate comparison. Value is speculative while salaries are real costs. It's like suggesting that Amazon employees should all be making $500K instead of $50K annually because Amazon stock has gone up 10x over the last decade. A more appropriate measure for comparison would be how much revenue for MLB franchises has gone up.

Correct, I was not suggesting that player salaries should also triple to match the value of the franchises increasing. Just pointing out the MLPA sees the Owners gaining overall value by leaps and bounds, while their salary increases have been much more modest. It's just one part of the overall picture.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

But - have to figure in that teams took revenue hits in 2020 and into 2021 due to covid limiting in-game attendance.

And that matters - especially if you are a team like the Twins that does not get as much local TV revenue.

one estimate - in 2019 - had the Dodgers hauling in $239-mill a year in local TV revenue, while the Twins pull in $43-mill. And the Marlins only get $20-mill in local TV Revenue.

So there is a lot of financial disparity in baseball. It's not like the NFL where revenues are more equal.

I think there is a fair deal waiting to be reached. but both sides are going to have to be willing to negotiate.

and that is just the economic side. the pace-of-play issues still have to be addressed.

 

[forever a gopher]

It's an interesting situation anytime these lockouts / strikes occur.

The players have about a 3-5 year lifespan of earning potential. That's 18 - 30 months of productive wage earning periods.

The owners are all in the 60's and 70's and many have been living their best life already for 20-30 years, with another 20-30 years of residual income blowing at their back.

Each month the players hold out, they are hurting their earning potential substantially. For the owners, this should just be one of their many revenue streams, not to mention, their net worth, even without playing is probably still increasing during this negotiating period.

No owner that I know of has ever had to sell a franchise because they spent too much money on a player.

It always boils down to: millionaires fighting with billionaires. The billionaires have a greater ability to ride it out.

I will repeat over and over- there should be a salary floor and hard salary cap. The top 3% of players signing deals in excess of $200MM might not increase their earnings, but with a cap and a floor, it will distribute more money to the "middle class" of players. So, less guys making $25mm+, but more making $10-20mm. A salary cap and floor will increase parity. Parity increases interest and distributes good players more evenly across the teams in the league, giving non-major markets on average more "superstars" instead of all of them making their way to the top 5 TV markets. Baseball should be focused more on making sure people give a crap about baseball in 10 years instead of focusing on "getting a win" in the current standoff. Make the game better and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Go Gophs]

Baseball dying on the vine. Nowhere to watch it, declining popularity, hard to watch.

And here they are arguing about money. All this is doing is alienating any fans that are still left. How sad that this once great game has come to this. On it's way to being a niche sport, out of mainstream and lost to the annals of time.

 

[Dano564]

Baseball dying on the vine. Nowhere to watch it, declining popularity, hard to watch.

And here they are arguing about money. All this is doing is alienating any fans that are still left. How sad that this once great game has come to this. On it's way to being a niche sport, out of mainstream and lost to the annals of time.

It does seem to be dying. I don't know any of my kids or kids friends who watch baseball,

Baseball started taking a real bad turn when the Yankees and Red Sox decided they each wanted to see 10 pitches per at bat before getting out or getting on base.

Having a 5 hit inning with 5 minutes between hits just sucks.

 

[Go Gophs]

It does seem to be dying. I don't know any of my kids or kids friends who watch baseball,

Baseball started taking a real bad turn when the Yankees and Red Sox decided they each wanted to see 10 pitches per at bat before getting out or getting on base.

Having a 5 hit inning with 5 minutes between hits just sucks.

Yep the game is too slow. And its the same 3-4 teams that ever have a chance of making the WS.
Couple that with it hard to find a game on TV and all the other sports options out there and I would say it is teetering...

 

[Dano564]

Regarding baseball salaries going up 12% and value of franchises going up 300%, the two aren't comparable from the standpoint they should go up equal percentages, but that tying it to revenue isn't the best match either.

Baseball owners don't own franchises for the annual revenue as they do for the growing value of the franchise.

Same thing in real estate. Some own a house to rent for the income of the rent. Others own larger and nice homes that don't cash flow as well, but gain on the appreciate / net worth growth.

Baseball franchises have no competition. Predictable revenue and costs. And it's extremely scarce with incredible barriers to entry.

This is why people hate billionaires more and more and will continue to do so.

The NFL for example changed it's rules so you can't replicate a cooperative model for owning a team. Even coming to the table with 10 partners each holding 10% is excluded. It's rich people changing the rules so only the uber elite can play.

Not only do you have all the money, you get to make the rules to further restrict whoelse gets to take advantage of the opportunities you have taken advantage of.

 

[howeda7]

Yep the game is too slow. And its the same 3-4 teams that ever have a chance of making the WS.
Couple that with it hard to find a game on TV and all the other sports options out there and I would say it is teetering...

I would strongly disagree with that. No one would have put the Braves as a top 4 team to win the WS in 2021.

They certainly must address pace of play/game time and the teams stuck with the Bally's sports mess have to get out of it somehow.

 

[Ope3]

I would strongly disagree with that. No one would have put the Braves as a top 4 team to win the WS in 2021.

They certainly must address pace of play/game time and the teams stuck with the Bally's sports mess have to get out of it somehow.

Add to that, Tampa pushed the Dodgers to 6 games in the 2020 WS and had the best record in the AL in 2021.

The Yankees have most financial resources at their disposal. Last time they even won the AL Pennant was 2009.

 

[howeda7]

 

[GophersInIowa]

Indications are it's suicide.

 

[forever a gopher]

Add to that, Tampa pushed the Dodgers to 6 games in the 2020 WS and had the best record in the AL in 2021.

The Yankees have most financial resources at their disposal. Last time they even won the AL Pennant was 2009.

It's actually been quite amazing how varied the WS teams have been, considering the payroll inequity. In 2021, the Dodgers spent the most at $271mil and the Orioles with the least at $42mil. LAD spent 6.5 times as much as the Orioles. That is a broken system. MLB has had the advantage of somewhat varied teams in the WS, not because of themselves, but in spite of themselves.

WS teams from the past 10 years, with payroll rank in parentheses:
Braves (11)
Astros x3 (4, 8, 17)
Dodgers x3 (2, 3, 1)
Rays (28)
Nationals (7)
Red Sox x2 (1, 4)
Cubs (6)
Indians (23)
Royals x2 (12, 18)
Mets (22)
Giants x2 (6, 8)
Cardinals (11)
Tigers (5)

That's 13 teams over 20 total season (2 teams x 10 seasons). 5 of the 20 had payrolls at or below the mean (15th).

One of the more belabored investigations, but probably more telling, is overall winning % of the teams and where they rank in payroll. Look at overall winning % over the past 10 years of NYY, LAD, BOS- it is very high. So even though the Yankees haven't made the WS, they have been highly successful from a regular season standpoint.

 

[BleedGopher]

ESPN Top 100 prospects:

56. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins​

Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Premium physical tools with feel and bad luck

Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft on the strength of his plus power/speed/physical skills/makeup combo, along with plenty of hit tool and real defensive value -- even if the position wasn't clear. The offensive performance has been underwhelming amid some tinkering with his swing and aggressive promotions, while his defensive home was still in question between center field or the infield. 2020 looked to be an important year for him to consolidate gains in the upper minors to springboard into a 2021 MLB debut, but the 2020 minor league season was canceled and Lewis tore his ACL just before the 2021 season started. Now, some moderate offensive and defensive questions are magnified as he hasn't played a competitive game since 2019 Arizona Fall League, where he raked and seemingly started to turn the corner.

Lewis got live at-bats during and after fall instructs but hasn't run the bases yet and can't go to early camp since he's on the 40-man roster. Given the long-term extension to Byron Buxton, a home in center field is now less likely, so Lewis will spend most if not all of 2022 in the upper minors, playing mostly shortstop but also likely playing some third and second base.

Offensively, Lewis' pitch selection is below average, his mechanics have changed and he has missed tons of reps -- so ideally 2022 can be a year to solve all of these relatively minor issues to springboard into the big league career envisioned years ago. The most likely outcome here is a super-utility player every good team needs -- not the no-hit shortstop -- the multiposition guy who can hit, like Ben Zobrist, Enrique Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Chris Taylor et al -- with some chance Lewis can land higher than that.

57. Austin Martin, 2B, Minnesota Twins​

​

Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Gifted hitter with solid secondary tools

Martin has some real questions on both offense and defense, but I'm still buying because he's good at all the right things, including making adjustments. He has been a plus hitter since his freshman year at Vanderbilt and until his 2020 draft spring. Martin's also a plus pitch selection guy and he has average raw power, so the ingredients are here for a solid everyday bat at any position -- but he had trouble getting to his raw power in games last season. This in part led to Toronto cutting bait with the No. 5 overall pick from the 2020 draft in a package for Jose Berrios at the trade deadline. The Twins are proactively working with Martin, as they successfully have with some other prospects, to tap into his power more often, but the downside is a plus hitter with below-average power. Even that is still a low-end everyday player.

Martin was solid defensively at second base, third base and center field while in college, with 2020 the year he was going to get a chance to play shortstop, but never really did. He now looks to be a bit overmatched at shortstop and will be on an upper-minors Twins utility merry-go-round with Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda and Spencer Steer. As noted in Lewis' blurb, center field looks like a no-go zone for long-term fits given the Buxton extension (not to mention Kepler, Larnach and Kirilloff), while second, short and third are much more open to competition. I think second base is Martin's best long-term fit, but he also will likely always play multiple positions.

82. Jose Miranda, 3B, Minnesota Twins​

Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Gifted all-around bat, fits in a corner

Miranda has migrated from a primary second baseman as an amateur to now fitting best at either third base (where he's fringe-average) or first base (where he'll go if he regresses at third base). One reason this has happened is that he's a bat-first player for whom the glove was never really the selling point, but he has also added strength and steadily added in-game power. Last year, he hit 30 homers across Double-A and Triple-A with exit velos better than the first basemen ranked around him while being age-appropriate for a prospect at those levels, with roughly average walk rates and much-better-than-average contact rates.

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2022

A switch-hitting Buster Posey? The next Carlos Correa? We rank baseball's next wave of future stars.

www.espn.com

Win Twins!!

 

[short ornery norwegian]

MLB and the MLBPA had a negotiation session - it lasted all of 15 minutes, with apparently virtually no movement.

I'm starting to think there is a real possibility that there is no MLB season in 2022.

if there is a season, I would bet that it will be 100 games tops.

this sport is in deep doo-doo.

and I'm ticked. my 1st year in retirement. I was looking forward to being able to sit down and watch a lot of baseball, and now this.

I hope somebody televises some minor-league games, at least.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

MLB and the MLBPA had a negotiation session - it lasted all of 15 minutes, with apparently virtually no movement.

I'm starting to think there is a real possibility that there is no MLB season in 2022.

if there is a season, I would bet that it will be 100 games tops.

this sport is in deep doo-doo.

and I'm ticked. my 1st year in retirement. I was looking forward to being able to sit down and watch a lot of baseball, and now this.

I hope somebody televises some minor-league games, at least.

They are bound and determined to ruin it