Hot out of my inbox bros (the bolded parts are bananas especially when you see what the Mets gave 33 year old Sterling Marte = 78M for 4 years/19.5m year - so if anyone complains about this they are just bitchin to bitch or an ignoramus) -
Byron Buxton’s $100 million extension with the Twins and how a no-trade clause made it happen
After declining to offer a no-trade clause in previous negotiations, the Twins included the sweetener during this round of talks.
theathletic.com
Byron Buxton didn’t need more years. He didn’t require a bigger base salary. Incentives for performance and playing time weren’t his sole motivation, either.
When it came to completing what some had described as a next-to-impossible contract extension with the
Twins,
a major-league source said Buxton’s top priority was obtaining a full no-trade clause.
After declining to offer it in previous negotiations, the Twins included the sweetener during this round of talks. Once the clause was incorporated, Buxton and the Twins finalized an incentive-heavy seven-year deal worth at least $100 million Sunday, sources confirmed. The deal, which includes bonuses for elite performance and plate appearances, is pending a physical exam.
In agreeing to the deal, Buxton, who turns 28 next month, bypassed an opportunity to become a free agent after the 2022 season at what could be the peak of his career. Buxton belted a career-high 19 home runs and hit .306/.358/.647 in 254 plate appearances this past season.
But Buxton, the No. 2 pick of the 2012 amateur draft and one of the most talented players to ever wear a Twins jersey, set the tone back in March when he acknowledged wanting an extension and discussed his desire to play for one team for his entire career.
“I’ve been blessed to stay with this one team in my career,” Buxton said. “To be able to put on this (uniform for my entire) career and go out there every day, it’s something that many guys can’t do.
“I want to be one of those guys that was there with that one team. This place just means a lot.”
Buxton and the Twins have broached the possibility of an extension repeatedly over the past three years. Both sides had expressed a desire to keep Buxton in a Twins uniform for the rest of his career. Earlier this month, Twins general manager Thad Levine described Buxton, who produced 4.5 wins above replacement last season in 61 games — the most WAR produced since 1900 by anyone who played fewer than 70 games — as the type of player a franchise aspires to build around.
But getting there wouldn’t be so simple.
The Twins had obvious concerns about overextending themselves for a player who has played in only 50 percent of the team’s games since 2017. They were afraid to get locked into a bad contract if Buxton were to continue to get hurt and miss significant amounts of playing time.
On the other side, Buxton’s representatives didn’t want to sign an extension that left their client vastly underpaid were he to develop into the type of superstar everyone hopes he can become.
This deal addresses both parties’ concerns in unique fashion.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal
reports that Buxton will receive a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $9 million in 2022. Buxton will then earn a $15 million base salary each season from 2023 to 2028.
He also earns what are believed to be “unprecedented MVP bonuses” for each year of the deal that range from $3 million to $8 million depending upon how high he finishes in voting.
Beyond that, Buxton can earn an additional $500,000 per season for reaching each of 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625 plate appearances.
Any nine-figure contract carries considerable risk, and Buxton’s extensive injury history magnifies that element of the deal, but that’s already factored into a $15 million annual salary that’s far from star-level pay.
Last season, 71 players across
MLB were paid more than $15 million, including
Josh Donaldson, who led the Twins with a $21 million salary.
Andrelton Simmons,
Miguel Sanó,
Michael Pineda and
Nelson Cruz were also paid at least $10 million by the Twins in 2021.
Consider that
Joe Mauer got $23 million per season in the extension he signed with the Twins in 2010. Since then the average MLB salary has increased by 40 percent, yet Buxton will make 35 percent less than Mauer annually. By today’s standards, Buxton will be paid like a good regular, not a superstar or even a star, and the injury risk is the only reason his price tag wasn’t twice as high.
What does $15 million per season buy on the open market? Less than you’d probably think. This offseason’s top free-agent center fielder, 33-year-old Starling Marte, just signed a four-year deal for $20 million per season. Last offseason’s top center fielder, 31-year-old George Springer, signed a six-year deal for $25 million per season. B.J. Upton got a five-year deal for $15 million per season a decade ago.
Buxton will be paid like a second-tier center fielder, yet he’s demonstrated as much upside as anyone in baseball. Not only did Buxton finish with a 1.005 OPS last season, but he also hit a combined .277/.321/.575 during the past three seasons, fourth best among MLB center fielders. Buxton is also one of the best, if not the best, defensive center fielders in the game and an elite base runner.
On a per-game basis, Mike Trout is baseball’s best player since 2019, averaging 7.8 WAR per 150 games. Buxton is second with 7.7 WAR, followed by superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. (7.5), Aaron Judge (6.9), Mookie Betts (6.9) and Carlos Correa (6.5). Trout, Tatis Jr. and Betts each have deals in excess of $300 million, and Correa is a free agent in line for at least $200 million.
So yes, Buxton has been hurt a ton, but he’s developed into such a spectacular all-around player that he’s been worth far more than $15 million per year even while missing huge chunks of time. Last season, for instance, he was limited to 61 games, yet produced 4.5 WAR, fourth-most among all center fielders. Based on a standard WAR valuation, he was worth about $40 million in 2021.
Buxton totaled 2.1 WAR in the 60-game 2020 season, equivalent to 5.7 WAR worth roughly $45 million in a normal year. He produced 3.0 WAR across just 87 games in 2019, worth around $25 million. He was injured and ineffective in 2018, but in 2017 he played a career-high 140 games and totaled 4.9 WAR for a valuation of about $40 million.
Not only has he been worth at least $15 million in four of the past five seasons, but if Buxton had been paid $15 million in each of those years, he’d have generated roughly $65 million in excess value. Overall during that five-year span, Buxton was worth $50 million per 150 games. Or, viewed another way, it took Buxton an average of just 50 games to provide $15 million in value from 2017 to 2021.
That’s basically what the Twins are paying for in this extension: 50 games per season of Buxton playing like he has since 2017 or even fewer games than that based on his more recent performances. Many reactions to this deal boil down to “it’ll only be worth it if he plays 125 games a year.” But in reality, 125 games of Buxton is likely to be worth double what the Twins are now paying him.
That’s why, despite a lengthy injury history and no assurances that will change, the Twins are taking less of a risk here than it may appear. Buxton needs only to continue doing what he’s been doing — injuries included — to be worth his salaries and then some. Any season in which he’s able to stay healthy for even 100 games, the Twins could get superstar-level value for average-regular prices.
And the Twins would be thrilled to have to pay those sizable incentives because it will have meant Buxton avoided injuries and had an amazing season. If, for instance, he were to max out his incentives in a given year by topping 625 plate appearances and being voted AL MVP, his total compensation would rise from $15 million to $25.5 million, a bargain price for the league’s best player.
As much as both sides negotiated to complete the deal, none of it would have mattered without the no-trade clause. Buxton likes the idea of one day seeing his number retired alongside other Twins greats such as Mauer, Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew and Kirby Puckett. Buxton wants to buy a home and establish roots in the community with his family.
That desire has allowed Buxton to work through potentially disastrous situations that can sour a relationship between a player and a club. Not only did Buxton have to discuss a failed round of contract negotiations in July, but a week later he also heard his name mentioned in rumors as the team shopped him before the July 30 trade deadline. Buxton shrugged it off and said he hoped his representatives and the team would sit down again this offseason.
That uneasiness came just shy of three years after the Twins upset Buxton’s camp when they failed to promote him in September 2018, a move that brought about concerns of service-time manipulation. By sending Buxton home that month instead of promoting him from Triple A, the Twins pushed back the outfielder’s free agency from the end of 2021 to 2022. Through it all, Buxton has remained steadfast that he wanted to be with the Twins for the rest of his career. Once they made clear that was their desire, too, he quickly agreed.
“Obviously (leaving has) crossed my mind, but it’s nothing I’ve worried about,” Buxton said in September. “The only uniform I know is the Minnesota Twins. It’s the only thing I really cared about. As far as contracts and stuff, I’m in a Twins uniform. At the end of next year, I’ll see how that goes.”
