All Things 2021-2022 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

[BleedGopher]

Byron Buxton’s future with the Twins remains in limbo as team gauges trade interest, potential extension offers

Though many in the industry expect the Twins to trade Byron Buxton, team officials are engaged in a debate on whether to keep him for the 2022 season.

Chairman Jim Pohlad, according to major-league sources, is reluctant to move Buxton, knowing such a decision potentially would upset a fan base tired of seeing the team part with homegrown stars. But the Twins have failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension with Buxton, their dynamic, yet oft-injured center fielder who is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season. And the chances of the team returning to contention in Buxton’s final year under club control appear slim without a single veteran starting pitcher returning to the club’s rotation.

The Twins’ front office spent part of last week’s general managers meetings listening to trade interest for Buxton, who hit a career-high 19 home runs in 2021 and produced 4.2 fWAR despite missing 101 games with injuries. Buxton, who turns 28 on Dec. 18, batted .306/.358/.647 and continues to be a difference-maker when healthy.

The Twins, then, are left with a variety of options.

They could trade Buxton for prospects in an attempt to expand their young core. They could improve on the seven-year, $80 million offer they made to Buxton last July, with the goal of finalizing an extension. They also could retain him for one more season, effectively deferring their decision.

“It’s not like something that has snuck up on us at this point,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “We’ve long been thinking about a lot of players, and as they approach closer to free agency these things come into focus a little more on both sides, from a player’s perspective and a team perspective.

“Now, we’re working through understanding all sides of this ultimately. We’ll proceed accordingly. At this stage of the offseason, we’re still just navigating our strategy and planning and trying to understand what’s available to us and what the market looks like on all periods. As is always the case, this isn’t unique to Byron or otherwise, there are people on our team that are interesting to other clubs and we just always need to work through what does that look like, what does our team look like as we navigate it.”

Byron Buxton’s future with the Twins remains in limbo as team gauges trade interest, potential extension offers

The Twins have been unable to come to an agreement with Buxton on an extension thus far and listened to trade offers during the GM meetings.

theathletic.com

Win Twins!!

 

[BleedGopher]

Twins trade targets: Front-line starting pitchers who could fit in Minnesota

If the Twins have any chance of contending in 2022, they need substantial help for a rotation that currently consists of Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and three blank spaces.

Fortunately there are plenty of front-line starters available in this very talented, very deep free-agent class, led by Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Steven Matz and Corey Kluber. Free-agent pitching is never cheap, and often risky, but the Twins have money to spend.

They could also look to rebuild the rotation via the trade market, where their excess veteran bats and a strong collection of prospects could be offered up for veteran starters. Even that path seems to be in the Twins’ favor this offseason, as several non-contenders have multiple quality starters and some contending teams with quality starters are reportedly looking to reduce payroll.

Twins trade targets: Front-line starting pitchers who could fit in Minnesota

Sandy Alcantara, Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt are three starters the Twins could target in trades.

theathletic.com

Win Twins!!

 

[short ornery norwegian]

FWIW - as I type this, the Twins have about one hour to announce changes to the 40-man roster. As noted above, the Twins will likely have to release a number of players who are currently on the 40-man roster in order to protect players in the minor-league system.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Oh Joy, more Jake Cave action to follow.

The Twins have signed OF Jake Cave to an MLB deal, and have outrighted LHP Devin Smeltzer and OF Kyle Garlick to Triple-A St. Paul. LHP Charlie Barnes and C/IF Willians Astudillo have been DFAd.

The six being added: Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Chris Vallimont, Josh Winder, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. #MNTwins 40-man sits at 40.

 

[howeda7]

Oh Joy, more Jake Cave action to follow.

The Twins have signed OF Jake Cave to an MLB deal, and have outrighted LHP Devin Smeltzer and OF Kyle Garlick to Triple-A St. Paul. LHP Charlie Barnes and C/IF Willians Astudillo have been DFAd.

The six being added: Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Chris Vallimont, Josh Winder, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. #MNTwins 40-man sits at 40.

So ridiculous. Derek Favley is now #2 on the list of MN coaches/execs I want fired ASAP well ahead of Zimmer and behind only Mike Sanford Jr.

 

[GophersInIowa]

So ridiculous. Derek Favley is now #2 on the list of MN coaches/execs I want fired ASAP well ahead of Zimmer and behind only Mike Sanford Jr.

A few people have noted that his one year deal is only partially guaranteed. I’m hoping this is only a backup in case a few guys get hurt before opening day. Otherwise can cut him in spring training while costing them almost nothing.

 

[GophersInIowa]

 

[Stan]

What’s a realistic return for Buxton in trade? A couple of AA pitchers? We certainly won’t get AS caliber player back.

 

[howeda7]

A few people have noted that his one year deal is only partially guaranteed. I’m hoping this is only a backup in case a few guys get hurt before opening day. Otherwise can cut him in spring training while costing them almost nothing.

I really don't care how cheap it is. Rocco can't help himself. Cave is his Nick Punto and if he's on the roster he'll play way too much. Tthe only solution is to take it away from him. There 50 other OF'ers they can sign for cheap that would be just as good or better than Divin' Jake.

 

[jamiche]

I can't take another season of Jake Cave. I just can't.
Signing Buxton is a pretty simple calculation. The highest paid position players in MLB are making $30-35M/year. Buxton at 150 games a year is easily worth $27M/year. Buxton at 100 games/year should be worth $18M/year. The Twins current offer is around $11M/year. If they are at all serious about winning in the next three to five years, they need to up the offer to around $18M/year for five to seven years. If they trade him, they'll get prospects who will sit in their farm system forever.
In Twins World, we get Jake Cave and we lose Byron Buxton.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I can't take another season of Jake Cave. I just can't.
Signing Buxton is a pretty simple calculation. The highest paid position players in MLB are making $30-35M/year. Buxton at 150 games a year is easily worth $27M/year. Buxton at 100 games/year should be worth $18M/year. The Twins current offer is around $11M/year. If they are at all serious about winning in the next three to five years, they need to up the offer to around $18M/year for five to seven years. If they trade him, they'll get prospects who will sit in their farm system forever.
In Twins World, we get Jake Cave and we lose Byron Buxton.

He has only played even 100 mlb games once in a season.

Twins fans: We can't get much in return if we trade Byron Buxton.
Twins fans: We must give Byron Buxton a long term deal of 18-20+ million

Those two things don't correlate

 

[jamiche]

He has only played even 100 mlb games once in a season.

Twins fans: We can't get much in return if we trade Byron Buxton.
Twins fans: We must give Byron Buxton a long term deal of 18-20+ million

Those two things don't correlate

They do correlate if he's a $25M-35M/year player superstar talent who was capable of playing a full season. Unfortunately, he's a superstar talent who's not capable of playing a full season, so you have to work backward.

He's still worth significantly more than the $11M the Twins are offering. They obviously aren't being offered equal current value, either in the form of a front line starter or position players. There aren't ten position players in MLB better than Buxton when he's on the field. Then the question becomes what is the proper discount because he's injury prone.

I went on Spotrac to look up his Calculated Market Value and it was very close to my previous guess. They have him at $17.8M. His WAR is slightly under Cody Bellinger, who makes $16.5M and who is older than Buxton and is on the last year of his deal. Buxton's market value, even with his injuries, is comfortably in the $16M-18M/year range. The Twins are low balling him. If they have plans to contend next year they will pay him. If they don't, prospects are on the way.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

They do correlate if he's a $25M-35M/year player superstar talent who was capable of playing a full season. Unfortunately, he's a superstar talent who's not capable of playing a full season, so you have to work backward.

He's still worth significantly more than the $11M the Twins are offering. They obviously aren't being offered equal current value, either in the form of a front line starter or position players. There aren't ten position players in MLB better than Buxton when he's on the field. Then the question becomes what is the proper discount because he's injury prone.

I went on Spotrac to look up his Calculated Market Value and it was very close to my previous guess. They have him at $17.8M. His WAR is slightly under Cody Bellinger, who makes $16.5M and who is older than Buxton and is on the last year of his deal. Buxton's market value, even with his injuries, is comfortably in the $16M-18M/year range. The Twins are low balling him. If they have plans to contend next year they will pay him. If they don't, prospects are on the way.

There are definitely more than 10 position players better than Buxton right now. Buxton has always had superstar talent, that's why he was drafted #2, but he's still not a superstar today. This is the first year Buxton was good at the plate and it's a very small sample size. Bellinger is younger than Buxton and has proven more at a younger age.

I will agree that 11 million is low. I wouldn't pay more than 15 million per year based on his accomplishments/injury history. It's not like Buxton would be the first player with superstar talent that just never pans out because he can't stay healthy.

There's also a good chance that Royce Lewis moves to CF, especially after the ACL injury. If he is their future at CF, then the Twins should definitely trade Buxton.

 

[jamiche]

There are definitely more than 10 position players better than Buxton right now. Buxton has always had superstar talent, that's why he was drafted #2, but he's still not a superstar today. This is the first year Buxton was good at the plate and it's a very small sample size. Bellinger is younger than Buxton and has proven more at a younger age.

I will agree that 11 million is low. I wouldn't pay more than 15 million per year based on his accomplishments/injury history. It's not like Buxton would be the first player with superstar talent that just never pans out because he can't stay healthy.

There's also a good chance that Royce Lewis moves to CF, especially after the ACL injury. If he is their future at CF, then the Twins should definitely trade Buxton.

My mistake on Bellinger's age.

Buxton also had a good year in 2017 when he was able to stay on the field. I'd rather pay Buxton his market value and know that the team has an elite center fielder who is an injury risk than trade him for prospects in order to save money and hope Lewis, who hasn't played in two years and was over matched at the plate in AA, can be the answer in CF.

If the rumors are accurate, the Twins are going to trade Buxton.

 

[GophersInIowa]

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Well done. This made me laugh

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

I really don't care how cheap it is. Rocco can't help himself. Cave is his Nick Punto and if he's on the roster he'll play way too much. Tthe only solution is to take it away from him. There 50 other OF'ers they can sign for cheap that would be just as good or better than Divin' Jake.

I like Punto better than Cave actually, but point taken

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

The stories u hear sometimes from retire players regarding the winter leagues are bananas

 

[howeda7]

They do correlate if he's a $25M-35M/year player superstar talent who was capable of playing a full season. Unfortunately, he's a superstar talent who's not capable of playing a full season, so you have to work backward.

He's still worth significantly more than the $11M the Twins are offering. They obviously aren't being offered equal current value, either in the form of a front line starter or position players. There aren't ten position players in MLB better than Buxton when he's on the field. Then the question becomes what is the proper discount because he's injury prone.

I went on Spotrac to look up his Calculated Market Value and it was very close to my previous guess. They have him at $17.8M. His WAR is slightly under Cody Bellinger, who makes $16.5M and who is older than Buxton and is on the last year of his deal. Buxton's market value, even with his injuries, is comfortably in the $16M-18M/year range. The Twins are low balling him. If they have plans to contend next year they will pay him. If they don't, prospects are on the way.

This front office has willingly paid Josh Donaldson $23 million/year and Jake Odorizzi $18 million/year. The idea that they refuse to pay Buxton $16-18 is inexplicable.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

This front office has willingly paid Josh Donaldson $23 million/year and Jake Odorizzi $18 million/year. The idea that they refuse to pay Buxton $16-18 is inexplicable.

Donaldson is a proven, multi-year All Star. Buxton is not. Odorizzi was a 1 year deal.

Both are very different situations. It's not inexplicable.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

They do correlate if he's a $25M-35M/year player superstar talent who was capable of playing a full season. Unfortunately, he's a superstar talent who's not capable of playing a full season, so you have to work backward.

He's still worth significantly more than the $11M the Twins are offering. They obviously aren't being offered equal current value, either in the form of a front line starter or position players. There aren't ten position players in MLB better than Buxton when he's on the field. Then the question becomes what is the proper discount because he's injury prone.

I went on Spotrac to look up his Calculated Market Value and it was very close to my previous guess. They have him at $17.8M. His WAR is slightly under Cody Bellinger, who makes $16.5M and who is older than Buxton and is on the last year of his deal. Buxton's market value, even with his injuries, is comfortably in the $16M-18M/year range. The Twins are low balling him. If they have plans to contend next year they will pay him. If they don't, prospects are on the way.

I have been saying, guaranteed $16-18 million. Then starting at 80 games, a $1 million bonus for every 10 games played (1 for 80, another 1 for 90) that would add up to another $7 million if he plays 150 games.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

Donaldson is a proven, multi-year All Star. Buxton is not. Odorizzi was a 1 year deal.

Both are very different situations. It's not inexplicable.

Plus Odorizzi's was a qualifying offer so if he became a free agent they would get compensation.

 

[howeda7]

Donaldson is a proven, multi-year All Star. Buxton is not. Odorizzi was a 1 year deal.

Both are very different situations. It's not inexplicable.

He'd also missed huge chunks of time with an injury that's almost guaranteed to recur at some point and we were signing him for his age 33-36 seasons (IIRC.) There is zero reason to assume Buxton will play a lower % of games over the course of a 4-5 year deal than Donaldson would.

Odo is a one-year deal obviously. But he also got hurt, missed almost the entire abbreviated season and somehow it wasn't the end of the world.

The point is that Buxton is a far more valuable player than either, and his injury risk really isn't that much higher.

 

[jamiche]

I have been saying, guaranteed $16-18 million. Then starting at 80 games, a $1 million bonus for every 10 games played (1 for 80, another 1 for 90) that would add up to another $7 million if he plays 150 games.

That's a deal that makes a lot of sense. The problem is that there isn't much trust between Buxton and management because they completely screwed him on service time a few years ago. It's easy to see a Pohlad scenario where there's a season when Buxton is healthy but the Twins aren't contending and.....Buxton finds himself taking a lot of "rest days" late in the season.

 

[jamiche]

He'd also missed huge chunks of time with an injury that's almost guaranteed to recur at some point and we were signing him for his age 33-36 seasons (IIRC.) There is zero reason to assume Buxton will play a lower % of games over the course of a 4-5 year deal than Donaldson would.

Odo is a one-year deal obviously. But he also got hurt, missed almost the entire abbreviated season and somehow it wasn't the end of the world.

The point is that Buxton is a far more valuable player than either, and his injury risk really isn't that much higher.

I think most people in MLB would find a 28 year old Buxton with a five year $90-100M contract more valuable than a 33 year old Donaldson with two years and $50M left on his deal, even with Buxton's injury history.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

He'd also missed huge chunks of time with an injury that's almost guaranteed to recur at some point and we were signing him for his age 33-36 seasons (IIRC.) There is zero reason to assume Buxton will play a lower % of games over the course of a 4-5 year deal than Donaldson would.

Odo is a one-year deal obviously. But he also got hurt, missed almost the entire abbreviated season and somehow it wasn't the end of the world.

The point is that Buxton is a far more valuable player than either, and his injury risk really isn't that much higher.

Yes there is, it's called that's the way it has been their entire careers. You're saying there's zero reason to believe that something that has never happened will now happen. Terrible logic.

Despite this injury Donaldson has played in 153 games with the Twins over the last two seasons, Buxton has played 100. Since 2016 Buxton has played in 447 MLB games, and despite his injuries, Donaldson has played in 638. That's well over as season more.

Odo's deal wasn't the end of the world because it was one year at that price not 5, 6, 7 years of the same thing. It's not remotely comparable.

Donaldson's WAR is significantly higher than Buxton's as well. He's the better, more durable player, and he is far more valuable than Buxton at this point in their careers.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

if Buxton stays healthy, he's worth the $.

If he doesn't stay healthy, he's not worth the $.

But how can you predict whether he'll stay healthy? going by his track record, I think you have to assume that you're lucky if he plays 60% of the season. But, he and his agents want to be paid as if he's going to play 85% or more of the season.

I'd hate to see him walk, but I'd also hate to see the Twins playing him $20 a year to rehab for half the season.

Buxton and his people should be willing to assume some of the risk, based on his injury history. But they won't. hence the conundrum.

 

[WilliamsArenaGuy]

if Buxton stays healthy, he's worth the $.

If he doesn't stay healthy, he's not worth the $.

But how can you predict whether he'll stay healthy? going by his track record, I think you have to assume that you're lucky if he plays 60% of the season. But, he and his agents want to be paid as if he's going to play 85% or more of the season.

I'd hate to see him walk, but I'd also hate to see the Twins playing him $20 a year to rehab for half the season.

Buxton and his people should be willing to assume some of the risk, based on his injury history. But they won't. hence the conundrum.

I can answer this.

If the Twins sign him, he will not stay healthy.

If they don't, he will stay healthy.

We all know it.

 

[Ope3]

if Buxton stays healthy, he's worth the $.

If he doesn't stay healthy, he's not worth the $.

But how can you predict whether he'll stay healthy? going by his track record, I think you have to assume that you're lucky if he plays 60% of the season. But, he and his agents want to be paid as if he's going to play 85% or more of the season.

I'd hate to see him walk, but I'd also hate to see the Twins playing him $20 a year to rehab for half the season.

Buxton and his people should be willing to assume some of the risk, based on his injury history. But they won't. hence the conundrum.

SON - You should consider a making a career in journalism/sports media. You have great knack for summing up the situation.

Seriously, congrats on the retirement.

 

[howeda7]

Yes there is, it's called that's the way it has been their entire careers. You're saying there's zero reason to believe that something that has never happened will now happen. Terrible logic.

Despite this injury Donaldson has played in 153 games with the Twins over the last two seasons, Buxton has played 100. Since 2016 Buxton has played in 447 MLB games, and despite his injuries, Donaldson has played in 638. That's well over as season more.

Odo's deal wasn't the end of the world because it was one year at that price not 5, 6, 7 years of the same thing. It's not remotely comparable.

Donaldson's WAR is significantly higher than Buxton's as well. He's the better, more durable player, and he is far more valuable than Buxton at this point in their careers.

We've had this discussion before. You skew Buxton's #'s by not counting games he spent in the minors in 2016 and 2018 for non-rehab stints. Since 2016, Buxton has played in 598 games (2020 prorated to 162) and Donaldson has played in 685. Buxton has averaged 100 games/season and Donaldson 114.

Donaldson does have a higher overall WAR over that time frame 21.9 vs. 15.9. But since 2019, Buxton's WAR is 9.6 and Donaldson's is 9.2. Going forward I don't think very many people would take Donaldson over Buxton for the same $.

All that said, I'm fine that they signed Donaldson. But giving Buxton 5/$100 or 5/$110 is not at all unreasonable.