All Things 2013 Gopher Baseball Season

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Interesting stuff. That would be incredible if the Big Ten gets 4 bids. However, I suspect in the end it'll be 2 or maybe 3.

Michigan State missed an opportunity for another quality win yesterday, losing 7-3 at Notre Dame. Only dropped one spot in the RPI, though. One thing working in Sparty's favor is their 5-1 head-to-head mark vs. Indiana and Ohio State. Their remaining schedule is pretty soft (don't play Nebraska), so if they can avoid any major hiccups like the one they had vs. Michigan they should be in pretty good shape.

Indiana's certainly going to get in, it's just a matter of which other team (or two) joins the Hoosiers in the NCAA tourney.
 

It should be a fun tournament at Target Field, I hope it's well-attended. With the capacity of Target Field, there should always be plenty of seating, they would probably just open more sections if demand was very large.
 

Gophers play their worst game of the year in the B1G. Lose to Iowa. 3 errors, 7 or 8 walks, a few hit batters. Windle and Soule were not sharp, last weeks snow outs were not a good thing. They need to win the next two.

One down and 1 to go. Gophers played well today. Only 2 walks, did hit 4 batters, and no errors for a 10-2 win.
 

Lincoln gopher said:
Gophers play their worst game of the year in the B1G. Lose to Iowa. 3 errors, 7 or 8 walks, a few hit batters. Windle and Soule were not sharp, last weeks snow outs were not a good thing. They need to win the next two.

One down and 1 to go. Gophers played well today. Only 2 walks, did hit 4 batters, and no errors for a 10-2 win.
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Yeah couldn't figure out what was happening in game 1. I saw we were out to a nice lead early and thought we were cruising along and it would be another nice win but then I saw Iowa started getting chipping away and getting back into it, but with a nice lead with only 6 outs to go that is a game we need to finish and I was glad to see the team was able to move on from that loss quickly and get back towards the right track.
 

Gophers end up taking 2 out of 3 vs the Hawkeyes. Great offensive weekend, pitching and defense were not sharp though. Gophers need to sweep PSU next weekend as Nebraska and Indiana play each other.
 


Okay, with the Gopher having three games against MSU cancelled, how does that affect tie breakers and the like at the end of the season? Will it go strictly by winning percentages or what? With NE and IU playing each other, that seems to give the Gophers a shot at moving up in the percentage column at least.
 


Holy Man said:
Okay, with the Gopher having three games against MSU cancelled, how does that affect tie breakers and the like at the end of the season? Will it go strictly by winning percentages or what? With NE and IU playing each other, that seems to give the Gophers a shot at moving up in the percentage column at least.
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It has to hurt our RPI.
 

Question for those who follow the NCAA baseball tournament process (30 or 31 autos?)

Are there 30 or 31 automatic bids for the NCAA baseball tourney?

More specifically, does the Great West get an auto bid, or are they left out like in basketball?
 



Baseball Field of 64

If the RPI were the only criteria (which obviously it's not), the NCAA Tournament field would look something like this. The current conference leader is designated as the automatic qualifier and noted with an asterisk. Records are vs. D-I opponents.

This is strictly a guide to roughly determine where B1G teams are hanging out relative to the tournament cutline (which right now is roughly #41). Obviously, there are some high-RPI teams from the power conferences (ACC, Pac 12, SEC, etc.) with sucky conference records that are likely to be excuded.

In the end I wouldn't expect the B1G to get 5 bids (the current total); more likely 2, perhaps 3 at the absolute max.

1. *North Carolina (41-4)
2. *Vanderbilt (39-6)
3. Virginia (39-8)
4. LSU (40-6)
5. *Oregon State (34-8)
6. Florida State (35-9)
7. Oregon (34-10)
8. NC State (34-11)
9. South Carolina (33-12)
10. *Cal State-Fullerton (36-7)
11. Mississippi State (33-13)
12. Virginia Tech (28-18)
13. Arizona State (29-12)
14. Indiana (34-8)
15. *South Alabama (34-12)
16. UCLA (28-13)
17. Clemson (30-14)
18. Miami-Florida (27-18)
19. Florida (25-20)
20. Ole Miss (31-14)
21. Louisville (34-10)
22. Georgia Tech (28-16)
23. Mercer (36-12)
24. Notre Dame (27-16)
25. Louisiana (31-15)
26. *North Carolina-Wilmington (32-13)
27. Kansas State (32-14)
28. Kentucky (26-17)
29. Austin Peay (32-13)
30. Maryland (26-21)
31. Alabama (27-18)
32. Central Arkansas (31-11)
33. Cal Poly (28-13)
34. Troy (32-12)
35. Illinois (27-13)
36. Rice (28-14)
37. Michigan State (24-13) -- last 4 in
38. Florida Atlantic (26-17) -- last 4 in
39. *Campbell (37-8)
40. Pitt (33-10) -- last 4 in
41. Ohio State (28-13) -- last 4 in
42. *North Florida (33-12)
43. *Oklahoma (33-12)
48. *New Mexico (27-17)
51. *Lamar (33-11)
68. *Western Carolina (30-17)
71. *South Florida (29-15)
77. *Missouri State (27-13)
84. *Southern Miss (24-19)
88. *Cal State-Bakersfield (29-17)
90. *GOPHERS (24-14)
97. *Gonzaga (28-14)
109. *Milwaukee (18-16)
114. *Saint Louis (29-13)
116. *Rider (26-17)
122. *Bryant (29-14)
125. *Tennessee Tech (30-12)
127. *Columbia (24-19)
157. *Buffalo (23-17)
173. *Delaware State (29-13)
178. *Maine (23-17)
191. *Holy Cross (25-22)
196. *South Dakota State (17-14)
257. *Jackson State (23-18)

Multiple-Bid Conferences
ACC (9), SEC (8), B1G (5), Big East (4), Pac 12 (4), Sun Belt (4), Atlantic Sun (2), Big 12 (2), Big West (2), Conference USA (2), Ohio Valley (2), Southland (2)

B1G Qualifiers Record vs. Teams in the Field
Indiana (7-5): #19 Florida (2-1), #21 Louisville (2-0), #35 Illinois (2-1), #37 Michigan State (0-3), #71 South Florida (1-0)

Illinois (3-6): #14 Indiana (1-2), #41 Ohio State (1-2), #125 Tennessee Tech (1-2)

Michigan State (9-6): #14 Indiana (3-0), #24 Notre Dame (0-1), #28 Kentucky (1-2), #29 Austin Peay (1-2), #41 Ohio State (2-1), #68 Western Carolina (1-0), #125 Tennessee Tech (1-0)

Ohio State (8-7): #24 Notre Dame (0-1), #35 Illinois (2-1), #37 Michigan State (1-2), #90 Gophers (1-2), #122 Bryant (2-1), #196 South Dakota State (2-0)

GOPHERS (5-4): #16 UCLA (1-2), #27 Kansas State (1-1), #41 Ohio State (2-1), #196 South Dakota State (1-0)

***The first NCAA auto bid is doled out this weekend when the Ivy League's Columbia and Dartmouth play a best-of-3 series @ Columbia.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Are there 30 or 31 automatic bids for the NCAA baseball tourney?

More specifically, does the Great West get an auto bid, or are they left out like in basketball?
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I think the Great West is left out from the auto bids because I believe Utah Valley had a very good record last season and had to hope for an at-large bid to get in the tournament and in the end I believe they didn't get in if I remember right.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
I think the Great West is left out from the auto bids because I believe Utah Valley had a very good record last season and had to hope for an at-large bid to get in the tournament and in the end I believe they didn't get in if I remember right.
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Thanks. I thought that was the case, but wasn't sure.
 

Friday results

Gophers over Penn State 11-2
Michigan State over Illinois 12-3
Michigan over Iowa 5-4

In the Hunt for B1G Tournament (top 6 qualify)
1. GOPHERS 10-3
T-2. Indiana 11-4
T-2. Nebraska 11-4
4. Ohio State 12-6
5. Michigan State 8-5
6. Michigan 9-7
7. Illinois 8-8

RPI Heading into Friday
GOPHERS (87)
Indiana (13)
Nebraska (51)
Ohio State (52)
Michigan State (36)
Michigan (132)
Illinois (33)

Saturday
Illinois @ Michigan State, 12:05
Ohio State at Northwestern, 1
GOPHERS @ Penn State, 1:05
Iowa @ Michigan, 3:05
Indiana @ Nebraska, 6:05 (BTN)
 



Gophers take 2 of 3 from Penn State after losing game 3 in extra innings 4-3 after having the bases loaded and nobody out in the top of the 10th and then facing some questionable calls leading to Penn State scoring the game winning run.

Updated B1G Standings
Minnesota 11-4 .733
Indiana 12-5 .706(Play Nebraska on Monday)
Nebraska 12-5 .706(Play Indiana on Monday)
Ohio State 13-7 .650(Play Northwestern on Monday)
Michigan State 9-6 .600
Michigan 10-8 .556
Illinois 9-9 .500
Northwestern 8-12 .400(Play Ohio State on Monday)
Iowa 5-13 .278
Purdue 5-13 .278
Penn State 3-15 .167
 

Huge week for Ohio State

Buckeyes can state their case for an at-large bid with five huge nonconference games this week, all in Columbus.

Tuesday-Wednesday: vs. #25 Georgia Tech
Friday-Sunday: vs. #8 Oregon

RPI of Teams in Hunt for B1G Tournament
#12 Indiana (35-9)
#29 Michigan State (26-14)
#34 Illinois (28-15) -- currently odd man out for BTT @ Target Field
#41 Nebraska (21-24)
#51 Ohio State (31-14)
#104 Gophers (26-15)
#140 Michigan (24-21)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Buckeyes can state their case for an at-large bid with five huge nonconference games this week, all in Columbus.

Tuesday-Wednesday: vs. #25 Georgia Tech
Friday-Sunday: vs. #8 Oregon

RPI of Teams in Hunt for B1G Tournament
#12 Indiana (35-9)
#29 Michigan State (26-14)
#34 Illinois (28-15) -- currently odd man out for BTT @ Target Field
#41 Nebraska (21-24)
#51 Ohio State (31-14)
#104 Gophers (26-15)#140 Michigan (24-21)
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Does this mean no at large for the Gophers if they don't win the tournament? Must have been a soft preseason schedule compared to some of the others. What about teams that don't even qualify for the B1G tournament? Any chance for at-large?
 

Wow! That loss at PSU killed our RPI, dropping us 20+ spots.

Illinois definitely has a shot at an at-large without qualifying for the B1G Tourney, but not likely. I don't believe it has ever happened.
 

Holy Man said:
Does this mean no at large for the Gophers if they don't win the tournament? Must have been a soft preseason schedule compared to some of the others. What about teams that don't even qualify for the B1G tournament? Any chance for at-large?
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Gophers' at-large chances are slim at this point, but maybe winning the Nebraska (strong RPI, but not a great record) and Illinois series' + a strong performance @ Target Field gets them in the mix?

Indiana is in no matter what. Best scenario for the conference is Hoosiers don't earn the auto bid.

Of the others, Sparty is in solid shape to get an at-large, but they can't slip up down the stretch. Eight of final 9 games are on the road (edged WMU 5-4 in Kalamazoo today), all vs. teams with RPI of 150+. No more opportunities for quality wins until the Big Ten tourney, however, a 9-7 record vs. the RPI top 50 (including a sweep of Indiana) looks pretty good. Avoid a meltdown (read: win both series) vs. bottom-feeders Iowa & Penn State, and Sparty likely becomes the 2nd B1G team getting in.

Illinois (only 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, but has a road sweep of Baylor) and Ohio State certainly have a chance for at-larges, especially OSU. The Buckeyes are 6-7 vs. the RPI top 50, and they have a boatload of opportunities for quality wins (Georgia Tech, Oregon, Louisville, Indiana, B1G tourney) down the stretch. All those games are in Columbus.
 

Definitely won't help the RPI as the Gophers lost a midweek game to Milwaukee 2-1 yesterday. Gophers missed some good opportunities as they had a player thrown out at the plate in the 9th, had bases loaded and nobody out in the 7th and didn't score a run, and Milwaukee's winning run was an unearned run as well.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Definitely won't help the RPI as the Gophers lost a midweek game to Milwaukee 2-1 yesterday. Gophers missed some good opportunities as they had a player thrown out at the plate in the 9th, had bases loaded and nobody out in the 7th and didn't score a run, and Milwaukee's winning run was an unearned run as well.
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Sounds like the ugly loss to Penn State.
 

Nebraska owns the Gophers right now. 5-0 (1 win being in the DQ classic last year) since joining the B1G. Better win the next two games and sweep Illinois or the small chance of getting an at large bid by winning the 6th rated conference goes out the window. Huskers are playing for their "get above .500" at large lives.
 

Gophers2Omaha said:
Nebraska owns the Gophers right now. 5-0 (1 win being in the DQ classic last year) since joining the B1G. Better win the next two games and sweep Illinois or the small chance of getting an at large bid by winning the 6th rated conference goes out the window. Huskers are playing for their "get above .500" at large lives.
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Gophers with a big win today, Snelton needs to have a big game tomorrow.
 

Lincoln gopher said:
Gophers with a big win today, Snelton needs to have a big game tomorrow.
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Highly disappointing weekend. Won a game but the bats need to get going or this season is going to be over quickly once the B1G tourney gets started. 4 runs total for the series plus being shut out twice. Ouch!

Need to bounce back versus a very solid Illinois club next weekend.
 

Gophers2Omaha said:
Highly disappointing weekend. Won a game but the bats need to get going or this season is going to be over quickly once the B1G tourney gets started. 4 runs total for the series plus being shut out twice. Ouch!

Need to bounce back versus a very solid Illinois club next weekend.
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The Huskers have a very middle of the road pitching staff. You are right, a disappointing weekend.
 

The Gophers can still take first place with a sweep of Illinois if Indiana loses one of three games to Ohio State. If the Gophers get swept, they will need a little help to make the tournament. If the Gophers were swept, they would have a percentage of .571. If Nebraska took 2 out of 3 from Michigan, Michigan would have a percentage of .541. Ohio State being swept wouldn't help, as they would finish with a percentage of .583.

Michigan State plays at Penn State, and I assume Michigan State would win all three games. But if Penn State took 2 out of 3 from MSU, MSU would finish with a percentage of .523. If Penn state took 1 out of 3, then Minnesota and MSU would have the same percentage, but I believe that MSU would get the tiebreaker based on record vs. the top 6 teams.

If Minnesota wins just 1 out of 3 against Illinois, the Gophers will be in the tournament, because Illinois would have a .583 percentage vs. the Gophers .619 percentage.
 

If things go somewhat close to expected next weekend, Michigan is likely to be the odd man out. 7th-place Michigan State currently is the odd man out, but all Sparty needs to do to finish in the top 6 percentage-wise is pick up one game on either Illinois or Michigan. That seems pretty likely with Illinois (@ Gophers) and especially Michigan (@ Nebraska) playing tough road series while MSU is @ last-place Penn State.
 

Only OSU & IU have clinched B1G tourney spots

Updated standings through Thursday.

If I have it figured correctly, only two teams (Indiana and Ohio State) have clinched a spot in the B1G Tournament. It's amazing to think that the Gophers and Nebraska came into the weekend with regular-season title hopes, yet the possibility still exists one of them might not make the tournament.

Current Seedings
1. Ohio State (15-7, .682, #56 RPI) -- clinched spot
2. Indiana (15-7, .682, #15 RPI) -- clinched spot
3. Nebraska (14-8, .636, #35 RPI) -- clinch spot with win vs. Michigan tonight
4. GOPHERS (12-7, .632, #132 RPI)
5. Illinois (13-9, .591, #33 RPI)
6. Michigan (13-9, .591, #152 RPI)

In the Mix
7. Michigan State (11-8, .579, #34 RPI) -- assured of passing at least one team between #3-6 if it sweeps Penn State

Friday
Michigan State @ Penn State, 1:05
Illinois @ GOPHERS, 2:05 (BTN)
Indiana @ Ohio State, 5:35 (BTN)
Michigan @ Nebraska, 6:35
 

Penn State is beating MSU, that's a surprise. Of course, we want Minnesota to make the Big Ten tournament by winning, but I'll take it however we get it. If Minnesota loses the next two games, and MSU wins tomorrow, both teams would be at 12-9, and I think MSU would get the tiebreaker. I think the applicable tiebreaker is record against the top 6 teams. Maybe Penn State can do it again tomorrow.

But if one of the Gophers' games is cancelled, the Gophers would make the BTT even if they lost one of the remaining two games.

Nebraska beat Michigan, so if the Gophers lose, they can still make the tournament if Nebraska beats Michigan or if Penn State beast MSU tomorrow.

Spoke too soon, the Nebraska/MI game isn't over. OK, now it's over, Nebraska beats Michigan 9-6. I got confused because the Nebraska gametracker used an X to indicate that the home team hasn't had their turn at bat yet. I'm used to seeing that as meaning the home team didn't have to bat in the bottom of the 9th.
 

MSU would win the tiebreaker with the Gophers if they both finish 12-9. Sparty finished 7-5 vs. Illinois (2-1), Indiana (3-0), Michigan (0-3), Minnesota (0-0), Nebraska (0-0), and Ohio State (2-1), while the Gophers would finish 5-7 vs. Illinois (0-3), Indiana (0-0), Michigan (2-1), Nebraska (1-2), and Ohio State (2-1).

Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Illinois have clinched 4 of the 6 spots. Gophers and Michigan control their own destiny with wins. Sparty needs a win and a loss by either Gophers or Michigan to get in. Here's hoping Gophers and MSU win and Michigan loses so that we truly get the best 6 teams (in terms of RPI) at Target Field next week.

The Grand Finale
Michigan (13-10) @ Nebraska (15-8), 12:05 p.m. (BTN)
Michigan State (11-9) @ Penn State, 12:05 p.m.
Illinois (14-9) @ GOPHERS (12-8), 1:05 p.m.
Indiana (16-7) @ Ohio State (15-8), 3:05 p.m. (BTN)

In Hunt for NCAA At-Large Bid
#15 Indiana (lock if it doesn't win B1G tourney)

#29 Illinois (strong finish has Illini in good position, but only 3-6 vs. RPI top 50, with none of those wins coming outside the conference. Series win over Gophers was their first vs. an upper-echelon conference foe)

#41 Michigan State (other than IU, Sparty easily has the best B1G resume with 8-6 record vs. RPI top 50 -- including 3 outside the B1G -- but what are the chances a B1G team gets an at-large bid without at least making the conference tournament? Pretty slim, I'd guess. The pressure is on @ Penn State on Saturday, and even with a win Spartacular needs help from Illinois or Nebraska to be playing @ Target Field next week)

#59 Ohio State (Buckeyes have played a good schedule, but is 8-13 vs. RPI top 50 enough? Getting a share of the regular-season title wouldn't hurt)
 

I'm obviously cheering for the Gophers to make the B1G Tournament, but they are in absolute meltdown mode right now. The Gophers haven't been a strong offensive team all season, but were getting some clutch hits to compensate. The pitching and defense had been solid all year until the final game of the PSU series and have fallen off considerably over the past 6 games. Hopefully we can figure some things out tomorrow and enter the tournament on a positive note and maybe get hot at the right time.
 

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