9-3 tell me I’m wrong

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Hockeytown said:
If people think less than 6 wins = Fleck failure then those same folks might as well buy the fire fleck tshirt and grab the firefleck.com domain name. This is gonna be a 1-11 year. I was optimistic but this CA kid leaving is no bueno. I expect we are going to hear PJ say the QB position takes years to develop and the Jerry Kill 'goldmine' statement was fraught with fiction. I was optimistic and posted 8-9 wins but this is gonna be like that Brewster 1-11 year.
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I will set the over/under at 4 games and pay you $100 dollars for every game under 4 if you will pay me $50 for every game over 4 that they win. You want a piece of that action?
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
I will set the over/under at 4 games and pay you $100 dollars for every game under 4 if you will pay me $50 for every game over 4 that they win. You want a piece of that action?
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nah, I do not want myself rooting against the maroon and gold in any fashion.

I believe i am seeing this clearly- The team was avg to poor with steady qbing from weber and leidner....i do not see how unsteadiness at that position allows the team to improve. No, this is bad.
 

Hockeytown said:
nah, I do not want myself rooting against the maroon and gold in any fashion.

I believe i am seeing this clearly- The team was avg to poor with steady qbing from weber and leidner....i do not see how unsteadiness at that position allows the team to improve. No, this is bad.
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In a perfect world, you would love to have an all-world QB. In reality, you can have a good team without an all-world QB - IF you are above-average at all the other areas - OL, RB's, Defense and Special teams.

Looking at the Gophers, I think it's reasonable to think they will be better at OL this year. RB's will depend on young players for depth, but if Smith stays healthy, he's solid. Defense - all comes down to DL play. LB's are solid - DB's should be better if they stay healthy.

So, I think the Gophers can be OK (6-6 or better) with just adequate play at QB. Define adequate - limit turnovers, hit a few open receivers, and manage the game. if things break right, and the Gophs get QB play that is better than adequate, then this team could actually surprise some people. BUT they have to stay healthy. a few key injuries could send the whole thing crashing down.
 

Hockeytown said:
nah, I do not want myself rooting against the maroon and gold in any fashion.

I believe i am seeing this clearly- The team was avg to poor with steady qbing from weber and leidner....i do not see how unsteadiness at that position allows the team to improve. No, this is bad.
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Holy smoke Hockeytown! You need to go to Wisconsin and drink some Everclear.
 

In the world of weaponized spin that IS the divided state of University of Minnesota Football in 2018 there is no truth. There is nothing that is certain. There is only "my side vs. your side..." and your side is wrong, guilty and is, of course, "less than honest..." I really don't have a clue any longer if Fleck is a god...or just another propaganda artist.

Some say that if Fleck goes 1-11...he is still doing all the right stuff. Some say 6-6 would be a failure. Some believe that only 13-1 or better is the only thing worthy of praise.

Now, more than ever: the number of Big Ten wins vs Big Ten losses will provide an accurate picture of where exactly Fleck and this GOPHER football program rate against all the other Big Ten Football programs. Wait to see what the record will tell us...if you are willing. Otherwise, argue about what the truth is in a time when there is no truth...when lies are honored as the truth and when anybody can say anything anybody wants to say and still have a base of blind followers. By the way: just where was Fleck born, anyway? Build a wall around the state of Minnesota...stay on your island...don't let anyone in. Border battles are NOT going too well these days. Football players should not be on the field at game time and should never be invited to the state house. Tax other teams for bringing their players into TCF BANK STADIUM because they have an unfair advantage. I'm tired of year zero. It has been going on for over a year now...The years come...and the years go...and nothing changes. Is this the ending of the beginning of new culture or the beginning of the ending of a passing moment in time in the football program at the U?

Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER. Beat the stinking badger.
 


Preach it walrus! This year is gonna be a disaster. Just where is the goldmine that Jerry Kill spoke of? Say what you will about Kaler but his letting FCS Jerry Kill leave MN was genius.
 

Hockeytown said:
nah, I do not want myself rooting against the maroon and gold in any fashion.

I believe i am seeing this clearly- The team was avg to poor with steady qbing from weber and leidner....i do not see how unsteadiness at that position allows the team to improve. No, this is bad.
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I'm inclined to agree with your last sentiment in a general sense. I don't know if we have anyone as good as Webber or Mitch .... hard to pick a lot of wins if we're still hurting there.

I'm hopeful.... but I gotta see these QBs perform before I have a great deal of hope.
 

Good luck and best wishes to all the quarterbacks at the U. Past, present and future. It's a tough gig.
 

I just looked at the standings...the Gophers are still tied for first.
 



Gophers still unbeaten and on the way to 9-3.

The recipe.
Start 4-0 then beat 5 of
Iowa
@Nebraska
Indiana
@illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
 

hello-world said:
Hah, thanks, I'll flip those around.
Since I'm clearly more of a minor league programmer than a major league stats mind, I guess I'll update my output to match :)
Based on 100,000 seasons with individual game probabilities based on this year's FPI:

0 wins: 0%
1 wins: 0%
2 wins: 1%
3 wins: 6%
4 wins: 15%
5 wins: 24%
6 wins: 26%
7 wins: 18%
8 wins: 8%
9 wins: 2%
10 wins: 0%
11 wins: 0%
12 wins: 0%

I'm pretty sure that I'm ignoring some important correlations here, but I don't have a stats background so whatever.
Alabama for scale:

0 wins: 0%
1 wins: 0%
2 wins: 0%
3 wins: 0%
4 wins: 0%
5 wins: 0%
6 wins: 0%
7 wins: 1%
8 wins: 4%
9 wins: 14%
10 wins: 29%
11 wins: 34%
12 wins: 17%
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FPI is a pretty dumb metric when literally zero teams have played a game
 

Walrus, the answer is the truth! Once we begin to listen to the truth and not what people want to believe or say is the truth, then all of the nonsense falls away.

Orwellian Doublethink!

1984 needs to be a reading requirement of all students.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Some guy said:
Gophers still unbeaten and on the way to 9-3.

The recipe.
Start 4-0 then beat 5 of
Iowa
@Nebraska
Indiana
@illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
Click to expand...

But that’s the thing though ... those games, as well Fresno and Maryland games embedded in your “start 4-0” recipe are toss up games, at this point with very little info about the teams.

That’s 7 of 8 games where we’ll probanly need something’s to go our way, in addition to the talent and good plays we make on our own.

That’s a big ask of the football gods ... but we’ll see!
 



alchemy2u said:
Walrus, the answer is the truth! Once we begin to listen to the truth and not what people want to believe or say is the truth, then all of the nonsense falls away.

Orwellian Doublethink!

1984 needs to be a reading requirement of all students.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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For the record we were always at war with Wisconsin.
 

Some guy said:
Gophers still unbeaten and on the way to 9-3.

The recipe.
Start 4-0 then beat 5 of
Iowa
@Nebraska
Indiana
@illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
Click to expand...

I am so naive that I would add Ohio St and Wisconsin to this list. Crazier things have happened.
 

With good play calling and a healthy OL our freshman QB can perform as well as any Gopher QB in decades. 4000 level mistakes, not 1000
 

I like being optimistic, but I've lived through enough Big Ten years that tell me that Freshman quarterbacks (Redshirt or otherwise) on most programs don't have winning seasons.

That said I think Morgan will do good things in Minnesota, but not so much this year. 5-7 would be a respectable season given all the youth of the team.
 

@ Maryland - W
Iowa - W
@ Ohio State - L
@ Nebraska - W if bunch plays
Indiana - W
@ Illinois - W
Purdue - W
Northwestern - W
@ Wisconsin - L


Realistically:
Win:
Illinois
Purdue
Indiana

Toss up:
Iowa
@ Nebraska
@ Maryland
Northwestern

Loss:
@ Ohio State
@ Wisconsin

If we can take 3/4 of those toss up games we are going 9-3.
If Bunch starts for Nebraska that should be a win.


Beat Maryland this week and people will start seeing things my way.
 

I'll be thrilled to tell you I was wrong.

If it happens.
 


I think 12-0. But I'm in Washington and we have legal weed.

Actually 9 wins is possible but optimistic. In my thinking, football is still a line game and grinding out a B1G schedule with a young line is hard. The physical maturity of 18-19 year olds vs 21-22 year olds is substantial. Young lines haven't had serious college level training, and simply don't have the maturity and wiles. Big dreams can devolve to struggling to merely survive the grind.

We'll see. Lots of factors involved, including luck, but I'm thinking 6 to 8 wins.
 

At the beginning of the year I thought 6-7 wins, and I would still bet on that. The team overall is performing better than I thought, but the Rodney injury offsets that in my mind. Over the grind of the league play we'll get worn down and beat physically. To be clear I like Fleck and am optimistic about the years to come. I liked Kill and Claeys and Brewster and Mason too though, so what do I know?
 

ESPN FPI has Minnesota finishing 9-3

I can see it after last week, but I need to see them beat Maryland before I allow myself to get carried away here
 

Ask me after the Maryland game.


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@ Maryland - W
Iowa - W
@ Ohio State - L
@ Nebraska - W if bunch plays
Indiana - W
@ Illinois - W
Purdue - W
Northwestern - W
@ Wisconsin - L

This actually looks plausible if not practical. If we did make it to the Wisconsin game with 1 loss, I'd give us a 50% chance of beating the Badgers. Rivalry game, multiple year losing streak, B1G title game on the line and PJ whipping the guys into a frenzy.

Sooner or later we are going to catch some major breaks in a Wisconsin game.
 


Some guy said:
NMSU - big W
Fresno - small W
Ohio - medium W
@ Maryland - small W
Iowa - small W
@ Ohio State - big L
@ Nebraska - small L
Indiana - small W
@ Illinois - medium W
Purdue - small W
Northwestern - small W
@ Wisconsin - medium L

Honestly I think we lose @ Wisconsin while playing for a share of the Big Ten West
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You're wrong. What you told me to say it.

Curious as to why you have us beating Iowa, but losing to Nebraska? Just because of home field? Lots of season left. You never know who can get hot and who could take a dive.
 


JZsportswhiz said:
ESPN FPI has Minnesota finishing 9-3

I can see it after last week, but I need to see them beat Maryland before I allow myself to get carried away here
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It has them favored in 6/9 remaining, but has us going7.5-4.6 (7-5/8-4).
 

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