9-3 tell me I’m wrong

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oldauggie said:
I will assume you were there, I was there too. We were never really in the Maryland game. DJ Moore? Nice player. That running back, I forget his name but those guys were moving the ball on us all game. I am pretty sure that was the game that Winfield was injured and after that happened we were toast.

I do trust the team to improve a little bit this year as long as Winfield is on the field. QB play will be an upgrade too as we can't get much worse than last years version of QB's that never took a D1 snap. Croft played a bit the year before but really it was nothing. I say 6 wins is about right for this 2018 team. Maybe 7.
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I hate to harp on one game in this thread, but ... what? The game was tied until Maryland scored with less than three minutes left in the game. It's not like we needed an unlikely comeback to make it a game late. The ball is the program, and we lost the turnover battle 2-0. We also ran the ball up the middle about 246 times. Yes, I was there, and I was pretty disappointed with the lack of offensive creativity.

We were warned on this board about Maryland's crazy talent last year, and I'm sure that's still true. They were a hefty 4-8 (2-7) last year, but I still believe we should be able to play the Terps tough this year, even on the road.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I hate to harp on one game in this thread, but ... what? The game was tied until Maryland scored with less than three minutes left in the game. It's not like we needed an unlikely comeback to make it a game late. The ball is the program, and we lost the turnover battle 2-0. We also ran the ball up the middle about 246 times. Yes, I was there, and I was pretty disappointed with the lack of offensive creativity.

We were warned on this board about Maryland's crazy talent last year, and I'm sure that's still true. They were a hefty 4-8 (2-7) last year, but I still believe we should be able to play the Terps tough this year, even on the road.
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That was a winnable game and they definitely out schemed and executed the Gophers.
DJ Moore was a force as well.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I hate to harp on one game in this thread, but ... what? The game was tied until Maryland scored with less than three minutes left in the game. It's not like we needed an unlikely comeback to make it a game late. The ball is the program, and we lost the turnover battle 2-0. We also ran the ball up the middle about 246 times. Yes, I was there, and I was pretty disappointed with the lack of offensive creativity.

We were warned on this board about Maryland's crazy talent last year, and I'm sure that's still true. They were a hefty 4-8 (2-7) last year, but I still believe we should be able to play the Terps tough this year, even on the road.
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they had just lost their top two QBs, they would have smoked us with either. Their game against Texas was eye opening, they will be very very good this year.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I guess for me, wins and losses are almost secondary to how the team plays - how the team looks.

Does the team play like a team? Do they look like they have a clue? Can even a casual fan tell by watching that the team has a system, and the players understand the system and are at least trying to execute it? Are they hustling?

Does watching the team run its offense make you want to cringe, close your eyes, or just drink heavily?

Does watching the team on defense make you want to cheer, or vomit?

On one level, the team's record - for me - is not as important as watching a team and feeling good about the way they look.

Last year, there were games where I honestly questioned whether the team knew what it was doing, or what it was supposed to be doing.

I just don't want to sit through any more of those games this season. Please.
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I agree for the most part. There are scenarios where I'd be very disappointed in 6-6. But there's also scenarios where I'd be pretty happy with 6-6.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I guess for me, wins and losses are almost secondary to how the team plays - how the team looks.

Does the team play like a team? Do they look like they have a clue? Can even a casual fan tell by watching that the team has a system, and the players understand the system and are at least trying to execute it? Are they hustling?

Does watching the team run its offense make you want to cringe, close your eyes, or just drink heavily?

Does watching the team on defense make you want to cheer, or vomit?

On one level, the team's record - for me - is not as important as watching a team and feeling good about the way they look.

Last year, there were games where I honestly questioned whether the team knew what it was doing, or what it was supposed to be doing.

I just don't want to sit through any more of those games this season. Please.
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My hope is to see a team that is at least competitive when I bring my family to watch the games at TCF Bank Stadium. Keep the game interesting and entertaining at a minimum.

Sooner or later, the team will find success. Knowing it will take a few recruiting cycles, we want to see positive incremental progress. Not necessarily just on the field.
 


Hates Monikers said:
I hate to harp on one game in this thread, but ... what? The game was tied until Maryland scored with less than three minutes left in the game. It's not like we needed an unlikely comeback to make it a game late. The ball is the program, and we lost the turnover battle 2-0. We also ran the ball up the middle about 246 times. Yes, I was there, and I was pretty disappointed with the lack of offensive creativity.

We were warned on this board about Maryland's crazy talent last year, and I'm sure that's still true. They were a hefty 4-8 (2-7) last year, but I still believe we should be able to play the Terps tough this year, even on the road.
Click to expand...

Your comments are fair and it is interesting that we saw it a bit differently. I saw thier offensive line push us around too much and running backs breaking tackles all game. DJ Moore was too much for our d backs. I guess I saw it as being out played. They were talented.
 

Section2 said:
they had just lost their top two QBs, they would have smoked us with either. Their game against Texas was eye opening, they will be very very good this year.
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Do we know if either of them were any good? (Serious question) My assumption was they were both noobs. Maryland was atrocious last year. Let's not build them up into a paper tiger. Will the be good this year? I don't know. They've been strangely bad as Wisconsin has been strangely good. One would think mean reversion would occur at some point.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I hate to harp on one game in this thread, but ... what? The game was tied until Maryland scored with less than three minutes left in the game. It's not like we needed an unlikely comeback to make it a game late. The ball is the program, and we lost the turnover battle 2-0. We also ran the ball up the middle about 246 times. Yes, I was there, and I was pretty disappointed with the lack of offensive creativity.

We were warned on this board about Maryland's crazy talent last year, and I'm sure that's still true. They were a hefty 4-8 (2-7) last year, but I still believe we should be able to play the Terps tough this year, even on the road.
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They were playing with a 3rd string QB, with not much for a back up plan after him. Yet they put a game plan together that got them a win.
 

Oregon Gopher said:
Good thing you don't run a casino- you're giving higher odds for something more likely to happen!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hah, thanks, I'll flip those around.
Since I'm clearly more of a minor league programmer than a major league stats mind, I guess I'll update my output to match :)
Based on 100,000 seasons with individual game probabilities based on this year's FPI:

0 wins: 0%
1 wins: 0%
2 wins: 1%
3 wins: 6%
4 wins: 15%
5 wins: 24%
6 wins: 26%
7 wins: 18%
8 wins: 8%
9 wins: 2%
10 wins: 0%
11 wins: 0%
12 wins: 0%

I'm pretty sure that I'm ignoring some important correlations here, but I don't have a stats background so whatever.
Alabama for scale:

0 wins: 0%
1 wins: 0%
2 wins: 0%
3 wins: 0%
4 wins: 0%
5 wins: 0%
6 wins: 0%
7 wins: 1%
8 wins: 4%
9 wins: 14%
10 wins: 29%
11 wins: 34%
12 wins: 17%
 



Pompous Elitist said:
Do we know if either of them were any good? (Serious question) My assumption was they were both noobs. Maryland was atrocious last year. Let's not build them up into a paper tiger. Will the be good this year? I don't know. They've been strangely bad as Wisconsin has been strangely good. One would think mean reversion would occur at some point.
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don't know about kasim hill, he got hurt early against UCF and was done for the year. highly recruited redshirt frosh. Pigrim was sensational against Texas and was hurt late. Offensively they were awesome until both got hurt. And both were dual threats, tough to build your team around that on offense and then go to an immobile backup. Defensively they were not good last year.
 

Section2 said:
don't know about kasim hill, he got hurt early against UCF and was done for the year. highly recruited redshirt frosh. Pigrim was sensational against Texas and was hurt late. Offensively they were awesome until both got hurt. And both were dual threats, tough to build your team around that on offense and then go to an immobile backup. Defensively they were not good last year.
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He was 9-12 last year. Very small sample size. Same with Hill. I mean , maybe they're great but difficult to draw a lot of conclusions off such little experience. Texas wasn't great particularly early on - and their coach is a Todd Richard. Will either QB be as mobile this year? Maybe. Are they elite passers or was DJ getting wide open for completions. I'm withholding judgment on Maryland as I thought they looked pretty bad outside of a few players.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
He was 9-12 last year. Very small sample size. Same with Hill. I mean , maybe they're great but difficult to draw a lot of conclusions off such little experience. Texas wasn't great particularly early on - and their coach is a Todd Richard. Will either QB be as mobile this year? Maybe. Are they elite passers or was DJ getting wide open for completions. I'm withholding judgment on Maryland as I thought they looked pretty bad outside of a few players.
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I watched the whole Texas game, Pigrim was fantastic. And I watched him play against us the year before, night and day difference. Dynamic runner and he was efficient and accurate passing. Obvoiusly I have no idea if their mobility will be down, but given they got hurt the first game or two of the year, it's pretty common to come back full strength with a year to recover. Both their RBs are back and both were legit. No idea on OL. edit: their whole OL was underclassmen last year.
 

Section2 said:
I watched the whole Texas game, Pigrim was fantastic. And I watched him play against us the year before, night and day difference. Dynamic runner and he was efficient and accurate passing. Obvoiusly I have no idea if their mobility will be down, but given they got hurt the first game or two of the year, it's pretty common to come back full strength with a year to recover. Both their RBs are back and both were legit. No idea on OL. edit: their whole OL was underclassmen last year.
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Yeah, but they lost the game. They gave up 51 points to a below average TX offense. I’m not saying they’ll be as bad this year but they’ve been a poor team recently despite a first rounder on offense and a couple handful of 4 stars studding the roster. Defense?


Herm, Mora, Green tell us what’s up

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4zLlIdZikDk?start=12" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 



Pompous Elitist said:
Yeah, but they lost the game. They gave up 51 points to a below average TX offense. I’m not saying they’ll be as bad this year but they’ve been a poor team recently despite a first rounder on offense and a couple handful of 4 stars studding the roster. Defense?


Herm, Mora, Green tell us what’s up

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4zLlIdZikDk?start=12" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Click to expand...

You got the wrong team with 51...

http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400934495
 

Whoops?

Damn CTE.

Whatever. They stink, and that mashup is still good.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Whoops?

Damn CTE.

Whatever. They stink, and that mashup is still good.
Click to expand...

That mashup is awesome.
Someone should do that with PJ, TC, JK, TB and GM


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


bfast said:
9-3 = A
8-4 = B
7-5 = C
6-6 = D
6> = F

There were a couple of games last year that were toss ups (Maryland home, Purdue away) that fell the wrong way.

Maybe we get the karma the other way and get 2 out of 3 versus Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern for an 8-5 finish. 8 wins is a successful year for me. 7 is a passing grade.
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Here would be MY grades on the upcoming season:
9 - 3 or better = A+
8 - 4 = A
7 - 5 = B
6 - 6 = C
5 - 7 = D
5 > = F
 


Here are my grades for the upcoming season. Since it's still a transition of players between head coaches with PJ's oldest players only being Sophomores at the oldest, I'm grading the past regime as well since they recruited the Juniors and Seniors:

10+ wins = A for PJ. A for Kill / Claeys
9 - 3 = B for PJ. A for Kill/Claeys
8 - 4 = B for PJ. A for Kill / Claeys
7 - 5 = B for PJ. B for Kill / Claeys
6 - 6 = B for PJ. C for Kill / Claeys
5 - 7 = C for PJ. D for Kill / Claeys
4 - 8 = D for PJ. D for Kill / Claeys
3 - 9 = F for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook


For next year (2019) they are as follows

10+ wins = A for PJ. A for Kill / Claeys
9 - 3 = A for PJ. A for Kill / Claeys
8 - 4 = A for PJ. A for Kill / Claeys
7 - 5 = B for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook
6 - 6 = C for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook
5 - 7 = D for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook
4 - 8 = F for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook
3 - 9 = F for PJ. Kill / Claeys off the hook
 

Some guy said:
NMSU - big W
Fresno - small W
Ohio - medium W
@ Maryland - small W
Iowa - small W
@ Ohio State - big L
@ Nebraska - small L
Indiana - small W
@ Illinois - medium W
Purdue - small W
Northwestern - small W
@ Wisconsin - medium L

Honestly I think we lose @ Wisconsin while playing for a share of the Big Ten West
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If I were a betting man, my optimistic bet would be 8-4....

Why are so many looking at the Nebraska game as an "L". I'm calling for a win in Lincoln.
 

GFBfan said:
That mashup is awesome.
Someone should do that with PJ, TC, JK, TB and GM


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I’m sure many here remember the DJ Steve era. Maybe he would be willing if the price were right. A couple of them stand out to me, there was one about the NFL draft featuring the young and legendary ass-slapper Ron Jaworski, Prime Time, and Bill Tobin ripping Mel Kiper. Another with Herm doing Herm, classic Mike Tyson quote...I’ll just post them.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2N0ZHq1Yjew" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/61KvqlqkC9M" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

MennoSota said:
Don't forget PI,MP and HO!
Click to expand...

http://www.hark.com/clips/knqktqxxjf-you-got-a-phd-pimpin-hoes-degree

<object width="24" height="24" class="hark_player">
<param name="movie" value="http://cdn.hark.com/swfs/player_24x24.swf?pid=knqktqxxjf"/>
<param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/>
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<embed src="http://cdn.hark.com/swfs/player_24x24.swf?pid=knqktqxxjf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allownetworking="all" width="24" height="24" wmode="transparent"></embed>
</object><br/>
<a href="http://www.hark.com/clips/knqktqxxjf-you-got-a-phd-pimpin-hoes-degree" style="font-size: 9px; color: #ddd;" title="Listen to on Hark.com"></a>
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Yeah, but they lost the game. They gave up 51 points to a below average TX offense. I’m not saying they’ll be as bad this year but they’ve been a poor team recently despite a first rounder on offense and a couple handful of 4 stars studding the roster. Defense?


Herm, Mora, Green tell us what’s up

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4zLlIdZikDk?start=12" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Click to expand...

I'm not going to argue that their defense is good. It's not. Their offense before losing their top 2 QBs was really really good, and they return everyone except Moore. If we can win a shootout with them, I will be very optimistic.
 

the Maryland offense loses all but one coach.. its coordinator, Walt Bell, to FSU. Also lost oline coach to Penn State, Rb coach to Natty Champs in Orlando, and TE coach to Rice.
 

Maryland defense had a linebacker go in 5th round, two dlinemen sign as undrafted free agents, a starting corner leave early and sign as an udfa. anothet dl and another lb got mini camp invites, as did their starting tight end from last year.
 

Vandy said:
If I were a betting man, my optimistic bet would be 8-4....

Why are so many looking at the Nebraska game as an "L". I'm calling for a win in Lincoln.
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I agree. 8-4 is absolutely doable. IA and NEB could be flipped and NW could be a loss. Win 1 of those three. All the other W's listed are very reasonable assumptions.
 

Face The Facts said:
Here are my grades for the upcoming season. Since it's still a transition of players between head coaches with PJ's oldest players only being Sophomores at the oldest, I'm grading the past regime as well since they recruited the Juniors and Seniors:
Click to expand...

PJ brought in Williamson, OJ Smith, Royal Silver, Dickson, Vic V, Ben Davis, Gossage. We need some of those guys to be hits. Jucos and transfers are becoming a bigger and bigger part of college football recruiting.
 

go4rob said:
Here would be MY grades on the upcoming season:
9 - 3 or better = A+
8 - 4 = A
7 - 5 = B
6 - 6 = C
5 - 7 = D
5 > = F
Click to expand...

I'm on board with that scale.

With the caveat that like last year I'm not sure what to expect from this team. Too many ?s.

Also everyone looking past Fresno deserves a loss...
 

We're going to be below average at QB again. We are going to have a defensive drop off as our DC shows his true colors. We're in year one. We will be lucky if we are bowl eligible.
...gotta trust the elite system...
 

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