InterestingI couldn't help myself, so I did a little research.
Since the 2018-19 season, 8 Big Ten teams finished the Big Ten regular season with a 9-11 record (2 games below .500). 4 of those made the NCAA Tournament (Gophers 2019, Maryland 2020, MSU 2020, Indiana 2022) and 1 other by my estimation (Wisconsin 2023) was near the bubble heading into the Big Ten Tournament but did not make it. The other 3 (Indiana 2020, Purdue 2020, Nebraska 2023) by my estimation were not close to the bubble.
So a little bit of a mixed bag. ... 5 of the 8 were close to the bubble, 4 made it (50%).
2023 Nebraska wasn’t close to the bubble
2020 Indiana wasn’t close to the bubble, but on February 27 they had 4 games left and if they won 2 or 3 instead of 1 they would’ve been on the bubble or in
2020 Purdue was 16-15, if they were 19-12 (9-11) it would be different
2020 Purdue also lost 5 of their last 7. They spend February on the bubble but then fell off the bubble the last 3 weeks of the season.
I should revise my statement.
I shouldn’t say “near the bubble”
I should say “in the bubble discussion in February”
Because if the gophers went 18-13 8-12
They’d almost assuredly be on the bubble discussions in February unless they happen to have 6 of their 8 conference wins in the month of February.