2022 Minnesota Bowl Projection Tracker


cjbfbp

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Doesn't matter. The conference has as much say as who goes to what bowls. At some point, they need to make sure that records dictate bowl placement. Can't imagine that they'd try to justify continuously favoring certain programs over others.

Also...the Gophers represented very well at the Outback Bowl a few years back. People will travel to decent bowls if we get them.

I'm not saying that but it certainly looked that way last season. The conference may have the ultimate say but they'll still listen to preferences expressed by the bowls (obviously they did last season). Right now I expect the Gophers to get the kind of bowl they deserve but, remember, we were 10-2 when we went to the Outback.
 

stocker08

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I'm not saying that but it certainly looked that way last season. The conference may have the ultimate say but they'll still listen to preferences expressed by the bowls (obviously they did last season). Right now I expect the Gophers to get the kind of bowl they deserve but, remember, we were 10-2 when we went to the Outback.

Yes, the bowl games themselves have some say too. But the fact is that the conference brass isn't going to continuously shit on certain teams. Gophers got the short end of the stick last year. I'd expect that if they finish 8-4 along with a few other teams....we won't find ourselves at the bottom of the pecking order for a second straight year.
 

cjbfbp

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Yes, the bowl games themselves have some say too. But the fact is that the conference brass isn't going to continuously shit on certain teams. Gophers got the short end of the stick last year. I'd expect that if they finish 8-4 along with a few other teams....we won't find ourselves at the bottom of the pecking order for a second straight year.

I expect that too.
 




tjgopher

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Yes, but they wouldn't do that for us. PSU is still a national brand. Last year, when we were in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, that game had the worst attendance of that bowl's history (by a significant margin). That includes the years when that bowl had other names.

That wasn't Minnesota's fault. Gopher fans travelled fairly well. West Virginia brought about 200 people. And, for much of that bowl's history, it included PAC 12 or Big 12 teams (that are closer than West Virginia). In fact, the three previous Minnesota appearances are three of the highest attended games.

That said, you are correct, they are not moving Minnesota up 3-4 spots in the bowl pecking order the way they did Penn State last year.
 

Gophers_4life

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Lot of it depends on if both OSU and Michigan can get into CFP. That would bump us "up the ladder" by one spot, regardless.
 

mnsportsgeek

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Lot of it depends on if both OSU and Michigan can get into CFP. That would bump us "up the ladder" by one spot, regardless.
That would also hinge on Illinois having only 2 losses. Most assumptions are that Penn State gets the Orange Bowl. If the B1G gets 2 playoff teams then Penn State just moves from Orange Bowl to Rose Bowl.

The rest of the B1G only moves up a place if Illinois moves into that Orange Bowl spot. Which would give the B1G an unprecedented 4th team in a NY6 bowl. Likely meaning they have to beat Michigan. Otherwise they go Citrus Bowl and nobody else moves up besides Penn State.
 



stocker08

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That said, you are correct, they are not moving Minnesota up 3-4 spots in the bowl pecking order the way they did Penn State last year.

Right. PSU got favoritism there....that only a few B10 teams would. But I think that's more an outlier than anything. Bowls themselves may prefer taking a worse team because they are a national "brand". But for the Big Ten Conference as a whole....you want to put your best foot forward....especially in the New Year's games.

PSU held tough for a half....but ultimately ended up getting beaten handily by Arkansas. That's what happens when you put a 7-5(4-5) team up against a ranked SEC team. Minnesota would have given the conference a much better chance for a win there.

That would also hinge on Illinois having only 2 losses. Most assumptions are that Penn State gets the Orange Bowl. If the B1G gets 2 playoff teams then Penn State just moves from Orange Bowl to Rose Bowl.

The rest of the B1G only moves up a place if Illinois moves into that Orange Bowl spot. Which would give the B1G an unprecedented 4th team in a NY6 bowl. Likely meaning they have to beat Michigan. Otherwise they go Citrus Bowl and nobody else moves up besides Penn State.

Think we'll see either OSU or Michigan in the playoff. The other will get a NY6 game along with either PSU or Illinois. Outside chance that both those teams get an NY6 game....but both are likely to finish with 10 wins....so it's not impossible.

Maryland still has OSU and PSU along with Wisconsin. Purdue has Illinois and Iowa. Those are the other B10 teams looking at eight win seasons. Don't see either Wisconsin or Iowa winning out....especially since they still have to play each other. Probably Illinois/PSU getting the Citrus Bowl. Then Maryland/Purdue/Minnesota jockeying for the ReliaQuest/Music City Bowls. If Wisconsin manages to beat Maryland, Iowa, AND Minnesota....they'd be in that mix rather than Maryland....but I don't see that happening the way that team has looked this year.

Regardless....finish the season 8-4....and I think it sets up nicely to play a good SEC team.
 

MaxyJR1

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That would also hinge on Illinois having only 2 losses. Most assumptions are that Penn State gets the Orange Bowl. If the B1G gets 2 playoff teams then Penn State just moves from Orange Bowl to Rose Bowl.

The rest of the B1G only moves up a place if Illinois moves into that Orange Bowl spot. Which would give the B1G an unprecedented 4th team in a NY6 bowl. Likely meaning they have to beat Michigan. Otherwise they go Citrus Bowl and nobody else moves up besides Penn State.
If Mich and tOSU go to Playoff (Will be hard to justify with SEC bias and Clemson.

Based on rankings, Illinois and Penn State will be really close if both are 10-2. Assume highest ranked would go to Rose Bowl. Penn State would need to be rated ahead of one of the 4 SEC teams to be considered for Orange Bowl.

Highest ranked SEC/B1G or Notre Dame team goes to Orange. Penn State or Illinois would need to be ahead of the 2 loss SEC teams in final ranking to get Orange bowl if Michigan goes to Rose Bowl.

Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU

My prediction
tOSU playoff
Michigan Rose
Illinois/Penn State Possibly Orange
 

Some guy

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Lot of it depends on if both OSU and Michigan can get into CFP. That would bump us "up the ladder" by one spot, regardless.
I don’t think that’s true.
It’s more to do with number in NY6 than number in CFP

Pretty confident in 3 maybe 4 in NY6

Winner of big ten in playoff.
Loser of Ohio state Michigan in NY6
Higher ranked of penn state Illinois in NY6
Maybe the lower ranked of them in NY6
Possible the big ten has 4 teams in the top 10 15entering the postseason.
 

Some guy

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If Mich and tOSU go to Playoff (Will be hard to justify with SEC bias and Clemson.

Based on rankings, Illinois and Penn State will be really close if both are 10-2. Assume highest ranked would go to Rose Bowl. Penn State would need to be rated ahead of one of the 4 SEC teams to be considered for Orange Bowl.

Highest ranked SEC/B1G or Notre Dame team goes to Orange. Penn State or Illinois would need to be ahead of the 2 loss SEC teams in final ranking to get Orange bowl if Michigan goes to Rose Bowl.

Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU

My prediction
tOSU playoff
Michigan Rose
Illinois/Penn State Possibly Orange
You think it’s possible the big ten only gets two in the New Years 6?

Rose - Ohio state/Michigan
Playoff - Ohio state/Michigan
Cotton - G5 champ
Sugar
SEC #1 not in playoff vs big 12 #1 not in playoff
Orange - ACC #1 not in playoff vs big ten/SEC/notre dame

Big ten number 3 will go to cotton bowl at worst
Big ten number 4 could go to cotton bowl if big ten number 3 goes orange bowl.

If the big ten somehow got two in the playoff it might be a lock to get 4.


There are 12 spots.

The big 12 will get 1
The G5 will get 1

This leaves 10 spots for the SEC/Big 10/ pac 12/ ACC combined

SEC will get minimum 3
big ten will get minimum 2
ACC 1
Pac 12 1

That means there are 3 spots for SEC #4, pac 12 #2-3
ACC #2-3
Big ten #3-4

3 spots for
Penn state
Illinois
Ole miss
North Carolina/wake/nc state/Syracuse
Oregon/USC/UCLA/Utah (but one of these four already in as pac 12 champ.)
 



MaxyJR1

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You think it’s possible the big ten only gets two in the New Years 6?

Rose - Ohio state/Michigan
Playoff - Ohio state/Michigan
Cotton - G5 champ
Sugar
SEC #1 not in playoff vs big 12 #1 not in playoff
Orange - ACC #1 not in playoff vs big ten/SEC/notre dame

Big ten number 3 will go to cotton bowl at worst
Big ten number 4 could go to cotton bowl if big ten number 3 goes orange bowl.

If the big ten somehow got two in the playoff it might be a lock to get 4.


There are 12 spots.

The big 12 will get 1
The G5 will get 1

This leaves 10 spots for the SEC/Big 10/ pac 12/ ACC combined

SEC will get minimum 3
big ten will get minimum 2
ACC 1
Pac 12 1

That means there are 3 spots for SEC #4, pac 12 #2-3
ACC #2-3
Big ten #3-4

3 spots for
Penn state
Illinois
Ole miss
North Carolina/wake/nc state/Syracuse
Oregon/USC/UCLA/Utah (but one of these four already in as pac 12 champ.)
Nice break down. Illinois has Michigan on regular season and then possible Champ game. They will likely have 3-4 losses and not be considered. Penn State Michigan and tOSU are the likely only teams getting into those games.
 

Some guy

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Nice break down. Illinois has Michigan on regular season and then possible Champ game. They will likely have 3-4 losses and not be considered. Penn State Michigan and tOSU are the likely only teams getting into those games.
I would bet money on 3
If Illinois has 2 or fewer losses including the championship game I might even bet money on 4


2019 wisconsin was not punished for a big ten title game loss. The playoff committee kept them at 8 after a loss to Ohio state.
So if Illinois and penn state are both in the top 10 entering championship week, I think big ten has a shot to get 4 based on how pac 12 finishes.
 

Iceland12

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Doesn't matter. The conference has as much say as who goes to what bowls. At some point, they need to make sure that records dictate bowl placement. Can't imagine that they'd try to justify continuously favoring certain programs over others.

Also...the Gophers represented very well at the Outback Bowl a few years back. People will travel to decent bowls if we get them.

Just a note. There were a lot of Gopher fans at the game and the events. Though Outback officials complained that many of them were already in Florida. Thus not spending money on hotels. Maybe not on food and drink if they lived in the Tampa Bay or Orlando areas.

Can "sorta" understand it, but c'mon. Maybe the ReliaQuest Bowl officials wouldn't be so upset.;)
 

mnsportsgeek

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If Mich and tOSU go to Playoff (Will be hard to justify with SEC bias and Clemson.

Based on rankings, Illinois and Penn State will be really close if both are 10-2. Assume highest ranked would go to Rose Bowl. Penn State would need to be rated ahead of one of the 4 SEC teams to be considered for Orange Bowl.

Highest ranked SEC/B1G or Notre Dame team goes to Orange. Penn State or Illinois would need to be ahead of the 2 loss SEC teams in final ranking to get Orange bowl if Michigan goes to Rose Bowl.

Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU

My prediction
tOSU playoff
Michigan Rose
Illinois/Penn State Possibly Orange
Penn State probably will benefit in the poll by not getting pummeled twice in the next 5 weeks. Illinois is gonna have to go 4-1 in their next 5 to finish higher than Penn State IMO meaning a win over Michigan or a big ten championship.
 

Gophers_4life

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I don’t think that’s true.
It’s more to do with number in NY6 than number in CFP

Pretty confident in 3 maybe 4 in NY6

Winner of big ten in playoff.
Loser of Ohio state Michigan in NY6
Higher ranked of penn state Illinois in NY6
Maybe the lower ranked of them in NY6
Possible the big ten has 4 teams in the top 10 15entering the postseason.
You're right, it is a NY6 thing that is a variable overall, in a sense.

CFP is a variable, Orange Bowl is a variable, and this year so is Cotton Bowl.


Although, my understanding is that if the Orange Bowl selects a Big Ten team in a year where it (the Orange) is not a semi-final game, then the Citrus Bowl can select an ACC team or Notre Dame to "replace" the Big Ten team it "should've" gotten (but went to the Orange instead).

2016 season is an example of this -- the Citrus took Louisville to "replace" that they "lost" Michigan to the Orange.
 

Gophers_4life

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Just a note. There were a lot of Gopher fans at the game and the events. Though Outback officials complained that many of them were already in Florida. Thus not spending money on hotels. Maybe not on food and drink if they lived in the Tampa Bay or Orlando areas.

Can "sorta" understand it, but c'mon. Maybe the ReliaQuest Bowl officials wouldn't be so upset.;)
Tough s__t.

There is still some semblance of merit, in the equation. As it should be.

Otherwise, bowls should just sign long-term contracts with a few teams that have very large, wealthy traveling fanbases and be done with it.
 


PMWinSTP

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short ornery norwegian

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there is still a possibility that the B1G could get two teams in the CFP with OSU and Michigan. that would bump all remaining teams up a notch on the Bowl pecking order.

as things now stand, it looks like Ind, Neb and NW will not be bowl eligible. Rut and MSU are on the fence. So the B1G could have from 9 to 11 teams that are bowl eligible.

Let's assume OSU is in the CFP and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl...
if the season ended today, going on records and pecking order:
OSU - CFP
Michigan - Rose
Ill or PSU - Citrus or ReliaQuest
MN or Maryland - Mayo or Music City
Iowa or WI - Pinstripe or Guaranteed Rate
Purdue - Quick Lane

obviously, a lot can change in the last three weeks. Gophers have to beat NW and at least split with IA and WI.
 

GoForGold

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Interesting on Missouri. Need a couple wins to be bowl eligible. Assuming they beat Jerry's club, they are at Tenn and have Ark at home.
Duke and Wake will likely be playing that last game of the season for a trip to the Mayo Bowl.
 

GoForGold

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All I know is the Rose Bowl is still in play for the Gophers.
 

gopherbadgerman

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If the gophers win out but do t win the west what is best case for a bowl? Citrus?
 

DelawareGopher

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GoForGold

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Pinstripe vs Duke would suck. Cold weather baseball stadium game against a non-football school.

I’d selfishly like the Mayo Bowl vs Wake since I’m an alum of both schools. Can’t lose! Or can’t win…not sure which.
The Queen City seems like a nice place to visit. I've never been to North Carolina. Little known fact: it was originally called the Queen City Bowl.
 

mnsportsgeek

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If the gophers win out but do t win the west what is best case for a bowl? Citrus?
IMO yes. Pending some unforeseen craziness.

1 - Playoff (OSU or UM)
2 - Rose (OSU or UM)
3. NY6 (Penn State)
4. Citrus (West champ)

The unforeseen craziness is the West champion winning the big ten, which would send them to the Rose, UM/OSU to random NY6 and Penn State would be on the fringe of a 4th B1G NY16 bid or go to the Citrus.

edit: sorry, didn't read your "don't win the west" bit. No, I think Citrus is out of reach if we don't win the west. Next best opportunity would be Tampa.
 
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