2022 Minnesota Bowl Projection Tracker




RememberMurray

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Do any Gopher Hole posters know how the bowl selectors decide which teams go to which bowls?
 




MGGopher

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I think most people know this, but:
  • The conference provides almost no guidance regarding how bowl selections get made other than the rough structure linked above. All speculation aside from that. It's the system that gets 8-4 Minnesota to the very prestigious Citrus Bowl in 2014 and 8-4 Minnesota to the very lackluster Guaranteed Rate Bowl in 2021.
  • B1G has previously stated their desire to place as many different teams at each bowl as possible during the 6-year cycles and have absolutely said there would be no repeats in back-to-back years.
  • In practice, I suppose that means PSU won't go to Tampa, MN won't go to Phoenix, Purdue no to Nashville, and Maryland no to Pinstripe. Iowa no to Orlando, but that was unlikely anyways. Wisconsin went to Vegas last year which is off the slate this year, but they played in the Mayo Bowl in 2020, so it's unlikely they return there. Illinois didn't go to a bowl last year, so again, wide open.
 


FanSinceTheFifties

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I get the intent of the process but it still feels like it screws the lesser brands. PSU (7-5, 4-5) jumping MN (guaranteed rate), wisconsin (vegas) , and PU (music city) (8-4, 6-3) to make the outback bowl as a prime example last year. It was fun watching them lose given IMO they didn't deserve to be there.
Bowl games are attractions to draw money to the host cities. They invite the teams that spend the most that comply with their automatics. And I always root for the team from my conference in inter-conference games.
 



RememberMurray

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I think most people know this, but:
  • The conference provides almost no guidance regarding how bowl selections get made other than the rough structure linked above. All speculation aside from that. It's the system that gets 8-4 Minnesota to the very prestigious Citrus Bowl in 2014 and 8-4 Minnesota to the very lackluster Guaranteed Rate Bowl in 2021.
  • B1G has previously stated their desire to place as many different teams at each bowl as possible during the 6-year cycles and have absolutely said there would be no repeats in back-to-back years.
  • In practice, I suppose that means PSU won't go to Tampa, MN won't go to Phoenix, Purdue no to Nashville, and Maryland no to Pinstripe. Iowa no to Orlando, but that was unlikely anyways. Wisconsin went to Vegas last year which is off the slate this year, but they played in the Mayo Bowl in 2020, so it's unlikely they return there. Illinois didn't go to a bowl last year, so again, wide open.

Thanks for this. I can't speak for "most people", but I thought I'd ask for my benefit and for anyone else who might like to understand how this process works.

That being said, unless I missed something the link itself had no real information about any criteria used in the process. The entire thing seems really random. Whim-based. The only thing passing for a formula or criteria is the no-repeat rule.

There's this:

Each bowl partner will work with the Big Ten to create the best possible matchup based upon an agreed set of parameters, with final approval by the conference office for all team selections.

Again, maybe I missed something, but it leaves me wondering: just what are these "parameters"?
 


RememberMurray

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Whatever the "parameters", I assume a New Year's Day bowl is highly unlikely at this point. Unless maybe we win the West...?
 

RememberMurray

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Pure Gopher Hole speculation here. Let's just let ourselves imagine...

We win out, and win the West. We play Ohio State in Indianapolis and...

A) ... lose a close, thrilling, hard-fought game. We're 9-4 B1G West champs. What are our bowl prospects?

B) ... beat the Buckeyes, against all odds! We're 10-3 B1G champs. What are our bowl prospects? (I'm assuming no playoffs for a 3-loss team).
 




MGGopher

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Pure Gopher Hole speculation here. Let's just let ourselves imagine...

We win out, and win the West. We play Ohio State in Indianapolis and...

A) ... lose a close, thrilling, hard-fought game. We're 9-4 B1G West champs. What are our bowl prospects?

B) ... beat the Buckeyes, against all odds! We're 10-3 B1G champs. What are our bowl prospects? (I'm assuming no playoffs for a 3-loss team).
In either case they're likely jockeying for position against PSU and will almost certainly finish ranked lower. So you're still looking at Michigan and OSU in the NY6 / playoff and PSU in the Orange or Citrus. Those are all highly likely already. Illinois is in the driver's seat for the next placement currently, but Minnesota would probably jump them in your scenarios which would put them in Orlando if PSU is in the Orange Bowl or Tampa is PSU is in Orlando. So yes, a NYD bowl is still in the cards but would take everything falling right as you outlined. Even then the conference could place Illinois (or anyone, really) above Minnesota if they want. It's all about fresh matchups, destinations, and anticipating which teams will likely be available to those bowls in future years as well.
 

RememberMurray

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In either case they're likely jockeying for position against PSU and will almost certainly finish ranked lower. So you're still looking at Michigan and OSU in the NY6 / playoff and PSU in the Orange or Citrus. Those are all highly likely already. Illinois is in the driver's seat for the next placement currently, but Minnesota would probably jump them in your scenarios which would put them in Orlando if PSU is in the Orange Bowl or Tampa is PSU is in Orlando. So yes, a NYD bowl is still in the cards but would take everything falling right as you outlined. Even then the conference could place Illinois (or anyone, really) above Minnesota if they want. It's all about fresh matchups, destinations, and anticipating which teams will likely be available to those bowls in future years as well.

So... there is, after all, some sort of pecking order based at least partially on wins and losses?
 

USAF

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So... there is, after all, some sort of pecking order based at least partially on wins and losses?
Go with payout, low to high, if that will shut you the **** up.

Guaranteed Rate
Quick Lane
Pinstripe
Duke's Mayo
Music City
Reliaquest
Citrus

 


Ope3

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Pure Gopher Hole speculation here. Let's just let ourselves imagine...

We win out, and win the West. We play Ohio State in Indianapolis and...

A) ... lose a close, thrilling, hard-fought game. We're 9-4 B1G West champs. What are our bowl prospects?

B) ... beat the Buckeyes, against all odds! We're 10-3 B1G champs. What are our bowl prospects? (I'm assuming no playoffs for a 3-loss team).
Big 10 Champion goes to the Rose Bowl if not selected for the playoff.
 


Gophers_4life

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Didn't follow the whole discussion, but there has to be some kind of order that the bowls pick in.

You don't think that the Music City bowl picks after the Guarantee Rate bowl, do you?



My guess is that ordering simply goes along the prominence of the bowls, which roughly follows the calendar of when they play the games. IE, the later in the schedule you play (closer to NYD or Jan 2), the earlier you got to pick the Big Ten team you want.


Beyond the best available (after CFP) going to the Rose, and then the NY6 if possible, I don't think there are much in the way of "restrictions" about which teams a bowl can take. Beyond the bullet points that MG posted some posts above.


So yeah, other than "no back-to-back", it probably is pretty close to a free-for-all from the Citrus on down ...


Within reason.


Would the conference "allow" the Citrus to take 6-6 Michigan over 10-3 and ranked #15 Purdue that lost in Indy (making that example up)? I don't know exactly how it works, but they "figure it out" without having it written down explicitly on paper.
 

cjbfbp

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My guess is that ordering simply goes along the prominence of the bowls, which roughly follows the calendar of when they play the games. IE, the later in the schedule you play (closer to NYD or Jan 2), the earlier you got to pick the Big Ten team you want.

There's some correlation with the bowl timing but, since the Big Ten bowls tend to be pretty close to each other, payout (as mentioned above by USAF), would have a stronger relationship with bowl prestige. For example, the Big Ten went to the Holiday Bowl for 6 straight years from 2014-2019. That bowl frequently was pretty early in the P5 bowl schedule (around Dec. 27th) but was ranked right behind the Citrus and Outback for the Big Ten.
 

Gopher 461

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Interesting dialogue about bowls. Just finish 9-3 and then let the AD's negotiate within BIG and respective bowl committees.
 

cjbfbp

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It's the system that gets 8-4 Minnesota to the very prestigious Citrus Bowl in 2014 and 8-4 Minnesota to the very lackluster Guaranteed Rate Bowl in 2021.

Those are two great examples of bad bowl assignments. The Gophers were pretty good in 2014 but not good enough to win the Citrus Bowl against 11-3 Missouri (with losses to Alabama, Georgia and, inexplicably, Indiana) that year. Last year they deserved much better than playing 6-6 West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. I remember a comment from reading the West Virginia fans' game thread: "They kind of got screwed by playing in a lesser bowl than they deserved and we kind of got screwed by getting a better opponent than we should have."
 

GopherJack

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The Queen City seems like a nice place to visit. I've never been to North Carolina. Little known fact: it was originally called the Queen City Bowl.
Saw the Vikings play in December, in Charlotte (back when Favre was at the helm). Had a great time and the weather was perfect! Ran in to lots of transplanted Minnesotan's there too.
 

Ope3

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Saw the Vikings play in December, in Charlotte (back when Favre was at the helm). Had a great time and the weather was perfect! Ran in to lots of transplanted Minnesotan's there too.
2 trips to North Carolina within 9 months (September play in Chapel Hill) would be unique, but I doubt would have any impact on Bowl Selection.
 

swingman

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In either case they're likely jockeying for position against PSU and will almost certainly finish ranked lower. So you're still looking at Michigan and OSU in the NY6 / playoff and PSU in the Orange or Citrus. Those are all highly likely already. Illinois is in the driver's seat for the next placement currently, but Minnesota would probably jump them in your scenarios which would put them in Orlando if PSU is in the Orange Bowl or Tampa is PSU is in Orlando. So yes, a NYD bowl is still in the cards but would take everything falling right as you outlined.
I think there are other options beyond Orange for PSU.
I think Cotton Bowl would take Penn State if Nittany Lions in top 12. Took them after 2018 season. Michigan and Ohio State both in final four and PSU to Rose Bowl not off the table either.
 

disco

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Not sure if it's true or not, but there was a rumor last year that the Gophers preferred going to Phoenix because of the large number of MN snowbirds/retirees there over say, the Pinstripe bowl.
 

Some guy

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Pure Gopher Hole speculation here. Let's just let ourselves imagine...

We win out, and win the West. We play Ohio State in Indianapolis and...

A) ... lose a close, thrilling, hard-fought game. We're 9-4 B1G West champs. What are our bowl prospects?

B) ... beat the Buckeyes, against all odds! We're 10-3 B1G champs. What are our bowl prospects? (I'm assuming no playoffs for a 3-loss team).
B) is automatic rose bowl unless we make the playoff
 

Gophers_4life

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No chance a 3-loss conference champ is making a 4 team playoff, so it would be Rose Bowl.

In A), it really depends on what happens with Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St and where they end up ranked. If all three somehow got into the NY6, then as West champs we should be in line for the Citrus. Should. That doesn't mean there won't be some way found to screw us out of it.

Still have to contend with Illinois being 8-4 (compared to our 9-4) and having beat us head-to-head, and Maryland is still floating around at 3-losses, but should end up at 7-5 (still have to play PSU and OSU).


Would the Citrus rather have 8-4 Illinois or 9-4 Minnesota? I honestly think the Big Ten would let them choose either one.

But then we should get Outback. Either of those are nice options.
 




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