I disagree that he'll have a long career at Duke. I agree if the belief is that he should have a 3/4 year career at Duke. But for whatever reason, when guys are ranked where he was ranked by the recruiting services, very few of them stay more than even one year, almost independent of any sort of college success or failure.
This is the unfortunate thing about college hoops nowadays is that guys like Hurt would stick around and become stars for their programs and hated by others. And that was part of the charm. That is not the case anymore because the second guys have any sort of success (or perceived upside), they bail.