Confernce Realignment Chaos is Here!!!!!! (maybe ... probabbly not) (Rumor Texas and OK reach out to SEC about joining)

[BoatRacer]

Not sure. I’m sure someone does the math for the network and for the conference


I could see the big ten adding 2-6 teams from out west. I can’t see them adding all 12. Too many mouths to feed to make it profitable.

drop Oregon state, Washington state, Arizona, Cal, Utah I start to believe it’s a money maker.


If the whole pac 12 is basically power 5 dead weight, you can’t take them and make MORE money when you have to subsidize them.

A scheduling agreement could work because then there doesn’t have to be a revenue sharing agreement

It is absolutely correct. Pac 12 as a whole is dead weight.
Money makers - USC,UO,UW,UCLA
Not profitable - Cal, Stanford, Zona, ASU, Colorado, Utah WSU,OSU

If AAU is non-negotiable for B1G, these are the schools from Pac 12. USC, UO UW, UCLA, Zona, Colorado, Utah, Cal, Stanford. B1G should not take 4 schools form Cali either. It is just unsustainable for long term like Big 12 with Texas schools.

AAU + Money makers USC, UO,UW,UCLA and combination of ( Zona and Colorado, Colorado and Utah, Stanford and Colorado, Cal and Stanford). Sad part is that will totally gut the Pac 12.

If AAC can make it work for travel arrangements with much less TV money, the new conference should be able to bear the brunt.

 

[Some guy]

It is absolutely correct. Pac 12 as a whole is dead weight.
Money makers - USC,UO,UW,UCLA
Not profitable - Cal, Stanford, Zona, ASU, Colorado, Utah WSU,OSU

If AAU is non-negotiable for B1G, these are the schools from Pac 12. USC, UO UW, UCLA, Zona, Colorado, Utah, Cal, Stanford. B1G should not take 4 schools form Cali either. It is just unsustainable for long term like Big 12 with Texas schools.

AAU + Money makers USC, UO,UW,UCLA and combination of ( Zona and Colorado, Colorado and Utah, Stanford and Colorado, Cal and Stanford). Sad part is that will totally gut the Pac 12.

If AAC can make it work for travel arrangements with much less TV money, the new conference should be able to bear the brunt.

The big 12 and pac 12 leftovers can make a conference called the little 14

 

[Plato]

Below is a very rudimentary attempt at showing one factor that could result in more money by adding teams. All numbers below are dumbed down to make math easier, and there are a million factors this doesn't include. It could also be wildly off base for all I know.

Pretend that right now:
- B1G conference games average 100 viewers each
- PAC-12 conference games average 75 viewers each

Over the course of a season that results in:
- B1G: 100 viewers x 63 conference games = 6,300 viewers
- PAC: 75 viewers x 54 conference games = 4,050 viewers
- Total: 10,350 viewers

There are people in the midwest today that have BTN but not the PAC-12 Network. Similarly, there are people in the west that have the PAC-12 Network but not BTN. In a combined conference, it is very likely that more people will have the new Big-PAC Network channel than currently have BTN or the PAC-12 Network. This is likely to result in more average viewers per game. Let's pretend this results in an average of 120 viewers per game.

Over the course of a season that results in:
- Big-PAC Super Conference: 120 viewers x 117 conference games = 14,040 viewers

That would be 36% more viewers than before without increasing the number of games. An important factor not included here is the monthly fee provided to the network from cable/satellite/TV subscribers. This is the issue that the drives us to minimize the overlapping viewer geography. If you add the areas with a lot of TV sets such as LA, San Francisco, Seattle, and Oregon while minimizing the number of schools to spread the money, the increased viewership and increased subscriptions could be bigger per school than it is currently for the B1G.

That is all true.
On YTTV I have the BTN, ACC and the SEC plus ESPN etc etc but no Pac !2.
A combo of the BIG and Pac12 would add cable subscribers in the west coast to get the BTN and vice versa.

 

[Some guy]

That is all true.
On YTTV I have the BTN, ACC and the SEC plus ESPN etc etc but no Pac !2.
A combo of the BIG and Pac12 would add cable subscribers in the west coast to get the BTN and vice versa.

If the big ten and pac 12 combine one of those two networks likely goes away.

pac 12 content on big ten network increases its value. The pac 12 network is defunct. Is the increase in value in the big ten network enough to pay out everyone involved more than the big ten is currently making?

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

If the big ten and pac 12 combine one of those two networks likely goes away.

Or become BTN2. If they really merged into a 20-26 team mega-conference, there would be way too much in-season content to pass on to outside networks. One thought on what happens to the Longhorn Network is that it re-brands into SECN2.

 

[Plato]

If the big ten and pac 12 combine one of those two networks likely goes away.

pac 12 content on big ten network increases its value. The pac 12 network is defunct. Is the increase in value in the big ten network enough to pay out everyone involved more than the big ten is currently making?

If YTTV and the cable companies include the BTNPAC!2 combo in the required channel category you will not have a choice except to drop the network or YTTV.
The BTN goes int many, many households that never watch it.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Or become BTN2. If they really merged into a 20-26 team mega-conference, there would be way too much in-season content to pass on to outside networks. One thought on what happens to the Longhorn Network is that it re-brands into SECN2.

Would still be possible, IMO to just sell both a PAC and BTN channels as a package.

Each conference do its own thing, keep its own flavor, but combine media deals for a bigger net geography and viewers.

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

Would still be possible, IMO to just sell both a PAC and BTN channels as a package.

Each conference do its own thing, keep its own flavor, but combine media deals for a bigger net geography and viewers.

Agreed. I was responding to a post hypothesizing that the leagues combined, but I think it is more likely that the Big Ten either poaches a few teams or they just enter into a closer partnership with greater emphasis on shared scheduling and marketing agreements.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Agreed. I was responding to a post hypothesizing that the leagues combined, but I think it is more likely that the Big Ten either poaches a few teams or they just enter into a closer partnership with greater emphasis on shared scheduling and marketing agreements.

B1G / PAC CHALLENGE!

And if anyone gets picky ... in odd years it can be:

PAC / B1G CHALLENGE!

And then we keep the records for even and odd years separate as if they're different challenges

Also silly trophies for each game ... a fluffy teddy bear, a random stick .. .and so on.

Why am I not in charge of the B1G?

 

[WAGopher]

B1G / PAC CHALLENGE!

And if anyone gets picky ... in odd years it can be:

PAC / B1G CHALLENGE!

And then we keep the records for even and odd years separate as if they're different challenges

Also silly trophies for each game ... a fluffy teddy bear, a random stick .. .and so on.

Why am I not in charge of the B1G?

This almost happened in 2012, but the Pac backed as they played a nine game conference schedule and some teams have nearly yearly matchups with good out if conference teams, like USC vs ND. The B1G also played an 8 game conference schedule giving them a perceived advantage in the upcoming 4 team playoffs in 2014.

Of course, the Pac has not been much if a factor in the playoffs since then. I think they would be open to exploring it again.

I think it would be a huge positive for both conferences. And I would get to see a B1G team at least every other year at Husky Stadium.

 

[fmlizard]

Just got a notification that the Big XII (8) and Pac 12 are considering merger or a scheduling alliance.

Makes a lot of sense for the "Big 8" but why would the Pac 12 want this? That would bring them to a 20 team league, add a bunch of travel, dilute longstanding rivalries, and invite in a bunch of schools that are generally weaker academically. There is no chance of a future playoff system omitting the whole western half of America, so why does the Pac 12 feel a need to get bigger or die?

It's a cultural and political mismatch. Pac 12 has been resistant to adding BYU or other more socially conservative schools. Big 8 is full of those.

 

[Some guy]

Just got a notification that the Big XII (8) and Pac 12 are considering merger or a scheduling alliance.

Makes a lot of sense for the "Big 8" but why would the Pac 12 want this? That would bring them to a 20 team league, add a bunch of travel, dilute longstanding rivalries, and invite in a bunch of schools that are generally weaker academically. There is no chance of a future playoff system omitting the whole western half of America, so why does the Pac 12 feel a need to get bigger or die?

It's a cultural and political mismatch. Pac 12 has been resistant to adding BYU or other more socially conservative schools. Big 8 is full of those.

The big 12 saying they are considering a merger =\= the pac 12 considering a merger

 

[U2Gopher]

Just got a notification that the Big XII (8) and Pac 12 are considering merger or a scheduling alliance.

Makes a lot of sense for the "Big 8" but why would the Pac 12 want this? That would bring them to a 20 team league, add a bunch of travel, dilute longstanding rivalries, and invite in a bunch of schools that are generally weaker academically. There is no chance of a future playoff system omitting the whole western half of America, so why does the Pac 12 feel a need to get bigger or die?

It's a cultural and political mismatch. Pac 12 has been resistant to adding BYU or other more socially conservative schools. Big 8 is full of those.

Meanwhile, it’s crickets from the Big10 and our “leader.” Damn do we miss Delaney.....

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Meanwhile, it’s crickets from the Big10 and our “leader.” Damn do we miss Delaney.....

What do you want them to say?

 

[fmlizard]

Meanwhile, it’s crickets from the Big10 and our “leader.” Damn do we miss Delaney.....

Crickets from the Big Ten is a good thing. Big Ten and SEC hold the most cards in this situation and there's no reason for the Big Ten to do anything rash.

Big Ten will be the primary media partner for FOX and its family of networks including FS1 and BTN, and will compete with the SEC/ESPN complex. We've got the best TV deal and the best balance of academics, athletics, and money.

We sit, be quiet, and wait, and we're the choosers.

 

[GopherFanatic19]

Kevin Warren is pathetic and is unable to lead. Warren should be reaching out to USC and Oregon. I, and many others have zero confidence in Warren leading the B1G

 

[MGGopher]

Crickets from the Big Ten is a good thing. Big Ten and SEC hold the most cards in this situation and there's no reason for the Big Ten to do anything rash.

Big Ten will be the primary media partner for FOX and its family of networks including FS1 and BTN, and will compete with the SEC/ESPN complex. We've got the best TV deal and the best balance of academics, athletics, and money.

We sit, be quiet, and wait, and we're the choosers.

The ones who aren't saying anything are the ones who are up to something.

 

[Goldmember]

Big Ten will be the primary media partner for FOX and its family of networks including FS1 and BTN, and will compete with the SEC/ESPN complex. We've got the best TV deal and the best balance of academics, athletics, and money.

We sit, be quiet, and wait, and we're the choosers.

CBS is now going to be on the hunt for college football programming too.

 

[BoatRacer]

Kevin Warren is pathetic and is unable to lead. Warren should be reaching out to USC and Oregon. I, and many others have zero confidence in Warren leading the B1G

I really don't understand Warren hates in B1G fans. He is definitely not Jim Deleny. But no one in last 30 years was JD. He was able rule B1G with iron fist. He was also supported by Presidents of B1G Universities. Warren is still establishing authority. Give him time. He need to listen to Presidents but not follow their marching orders like last year football season.

For expansion, there is so much he can do. It is not a one man job. There is a group of people from B1G leadership team which will be doing the job. Also B1G cant just fly to L.A., San Fran and Seattle to get the teams. I will be surprised if PAC 12 teams like UCLA,USC,UO,UW didnt reached out to B1G and B1G didnt talk to them at all. Don't you think it is strange that Pac 12 Commissioner and Big 12 Commissioner are talking. Not with B1G.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Kevin Warren is pathetic and is unable to lead. Warren should be reaching out to USC and Oregon. I, and many others have zero confidence in Warren leading the B1G

Warren might very well be reaching out to USC, Oregon and others. Unless Warren is under an obligation to report his job-related actions directly to you several times a day, you actually have no idea what he might or might not be doing. You seem to believe that unless the B1G issues regular public statements to its fandom announcing that it is contacting other schools, and perhaps naming those schools, it means for certain that the B1G isn't contacting other schools.

I believe that the B1G might be actively studying several expansion scenarios, and perhaps putting feelers out to acceptable universities, all while working internally with the academic leaders of the existing B1G members to determine criteria that would be universally acceptable to ensure admission of new members. An organization like the B1G can do this without issuing public statements detailing what it is up to. In fact, many canny organizations, for a variety of very good reasons, purposely keep merger and acquisition activities out of the public eye until things move past the inquiry/study/negotiation stage to the final action stage.

I suspect that Texas and OU worked with the SEC behind the scenes, in virtual secrecy, for months before making their plans known publicly a week or two before taking final action.

The left-behind residue of the Big XII is desperate; they have to report that they are "doing things" to quell the justifiable fears of members and fans. The B1G isn't desperate. It hasn't lost its zenith members. It has no residue members trembling in fear, and it doesn't need to issue reassuring public statements. By the way, good leaders, after study and working with their membership, often conclude that "take no impulsive response action" is the best option. I think you should let this play out longer before making unfounded accusations about Warren is or isn't doing.

 

[Off-GridTNgopher]

I think people want to see the B1G being proactive.. super conferences are the new way.. we can't sit back and watch and possibly miss out... If that happens we risk losing the big draws tOSU, Mich, Penn State... All are rumored to at least be listening to other conferences.. go swoop in.. grab usc, oregon, stanford, ucla, and Washington.. if ya have to kick nebby out so be it.. (I really don't think they want to be in the B1G outside of the $$)

 

[swelna]

I think people want to see the B1G being proactive.. super conferences are the new way.. we can't sit back and watch and possibly miss out... If that happens we risk losing the big draws tOSU, Mich, Penn State... All are rumored to at least be listening to other conferences.. go swoop in.. grab usc, oregon, stanford, ucla, and Washington.. if ya have to kick nebby out so be it.. (I really don't think they want to be in the B1G outside of the $$)

Until schools can stay in the big ten academic alliance and not in the athletics conference, we are not losing OSU, Mich, Penn state, etc. The academic alliance makes the schools way more in research grants than the athletics does in revenue. Not saying this won't change, but the two things are tied together at the moment

 

[Some guy]

Until schools can stay in the big ten academic alliance and not in the athletics conference, we are not losing OSU, Mich, Penn state, etc. The academic alliance makes the schools way more in research grants than the athletics does in revenue. Not saying this won't change, but the two things are tied together at the moment

Yeah this is true. Big ten will miss out on tens of millions (maybe) by not expanding.

Ohio state, Michigan, penn state would miss out on hundreds of millions long term by leaving. The university is still more important than the football team. Even at Ohio state.


And if it’s going to superconferences. There is no rule that says 4 16, or 2 20

The SEC could go to 20 and the big ten could stay at 14. If money is the end game, the big ten shouldn’t arbitrarily try to get to 16 while costing themselves money

 

[short ornery norwegian]

It's more important to make the "right" move as opposed to the "first" move.

 

[MGGopher]

It's more important to make the "right" move as opposed to the "first" move.

Exactly. And who in their right mind thinks the B1G brass are just sitting back twiddling their thumbs? That's such a naive point of view it almost merits no response at all. I'd be FLOORED if they're not having conversations, both fielding and making calls, talking to university presidents, modeling revenue streams, etc.

 

[Some guy]

Exactly. And who in their right mind thinks the B1G brass are just sitting back twiddling their thumbs? That's such a naive point of view it almost merits no response at all. I'd be FLOORED if they're not having conversations, both fielding and making calls, talking to university presidents, modeling revenue streams, etc.

And to the people worried about Warren, I get it. But he works for the universities, not the other way around. If he is bad they will just maneuver around him (and should and will likely move on from him on the next contract). Hard to know if he is bad or good

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Exactly. And who in their right mind thinks the B1G brass are just sitting back twiddling their thumbs? That's such a naive point of view it almost merits no response at all. I'd be FLOORED if they're not having conversations, both fielding and making calls, talking to university presidents, modeling revenue streams, etc.

Even just in contact with ADs to decide "Hey when we get calls what do we want to tell them / talk about ... who we really interested in?"

 

[fmlizard]

Exactly. And who in their right mind thinks the B1G brass are just sitting back twiddling their thumbs? That's such a naive point of view it almost merits no response at all. I'd be FLOORED if they're not having conversations, both fielding and making calls, talking to university presidents, modeling revenue streams, etc.

I think they should be mostly twiddling thumbs. Taking calls out of courtesy but not making any to other schools. Those schools need the Big Ten as a lifeboat, not the other way around. Media deal runs out soon so they should be getting that sorted with FOX (or any surprise bidders). Those would be the only calls I would be initiating.

The Big Ten will always have a seat at the head of the table, barring a significant exodus from the conference. We have the best TV network in the best media footprint, and have the best mix of academic, athletic, and financial success of any conference. Even with Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC. The SEC would be better at the top in football right now, but that's already the case and people still watch Big Ten. And there's much more to a conference than football or even sports.

The "premiership" theory is the only real risk to the Big Ten. Otherwise, why react? Is anyone going to leave the Big Ten out of any playoff or not put all the games on TV?

 

[MplsGopher]

Well, looks like things have died down. I don't think any of the other P confs are serious right now about taking any of the remaining eight, or we'd have heard something.

Will be interesting to see if UT/OU are able to work something out to move to the SEC before 2025.

But sans something else amazing happening, I see the Big XII looking to add two more, perhaps Houston and Cincy, and taking their 50% reduction in TV value on the chin - but still worth more than the American and Mountain West deals.

 

[PMWinSTP]

My sense is nothing more will happen with Big12 until it gets paid from TX and OK for bolting. Colorado might be interesting based on grabbing that Denver market but really nothing beyond.