Your Thoughts on the 4-1 Call

[Ope3]

The right choice was made. I would have liked to seen Fleck trust his really good RB to gain a 1/2 yard.

This isn’t really that hard to understand.

Fleck would have also had to trust the refs to spot it correctly as well as video eye in the sky officials confirm it. Seems like a crapshoot based on a couple calls in the last few minutes of the game.

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

We should have lined up in Wild Card formation to go for it and done a hard count when the play clock gets to 1 second but not snap the ball. If you draw them offsides, the games ours. If not, then we punt five yards further back.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

I don't really understand that thought process that says punting there is not playing to win. Your D has been great, they are playing their 3rd string QB and have to go 90 yards with no timeouts for a TD.

My initial instinct when it was 4th and 1 was to go for it. But the punt was the safe play because if something goes wrong and you don't get the first down you just made their job way easier.

I think this pretty much nails it.

There's an epidemic in recent years of going for it on 4th down, particularly in the NFL. Coaches making stupid decisions, and what makes it more stupid is that defenses are working more and more on defending 4th and short with so many coaches going for it. You aren't catching anyone unsuspecting anymore.

It was the right move, even though I wasn't crazy about it at the time either.

 

[Ski U Master]

Punt was 100% the right call.

 

[FanSinceTheFifties]

I offer no opinion on whether the spot was accurate. However, the replay clearly showed that Ibrihim's butt touched while the ball was short of the first down line. As to the punt, I would have snuck for the first down except for two reasons: 1. inexperienced QB and 2. the disastrous 4th down failure in the Purdue game. Nevertheless, punts can go wrong in many ways, so punting was only slightly safer than rushing.

 

[FanSinceTheFifties]

I think this pretty much nails it.

There's an epidemic in recent years of going for it on 4th down, particularly in the NFL. Coaches making stupid decisions, and what makes it more stupid is that defenses are working more and more on defending 4th and short with so many coaches going for it. You aren't catching anyone unsuspecting anymore.

It was the right move, even though I wasn't crazy about it at the time either.

On fourth and short, there's no attempt to deceive. You have the advantage of knowing the snap count, the confidence in your offensive line, and the hope the defense will jump offside. What I don't understand is why teams call a 2nd and short as if it's 4th and short.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

It worked out, so it’s good

On a more basic level if they can’t convert for a few inches that’s bad. Deserve to lose. I’m in the go for it, aggressiveness pays off on average camp. If the defense is shutting them down a short or long field makes little difference. They needed a TD.

 

[Some guy]

I think this pretty much nails it.

There's an epidemic in recent years of going for it on 4th down, particularly in the NFL. Coaches making stupid decisions, and what makes it more stupid is that defenses are working more and more on defending 4th and short with so many coaches going for it. You aren't catching anyone unsuspecting anymore.

It was the right move, even though I wasn't crazy about it at the time either.

The funniest thing about “analytics” is that everyone followed the “analytics” to make choices the numbers used to make the choices would be different

 

[USAF]

. However, the replay clearly showed that Ibrihim's butt touched while the ball was short of the first down line.

You must have seen a different replay than I did.

 

[PMWinSTP]

You must have seen a different replay than I did.

Beat me to it.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

I understand punting there but don’t like it.

A wise man once said “You play to win the game”.

Which is exactly what the Gophers did, by punting, they secured the win.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Which is exactly what the Gophers did, by punting, they secured the win.

IIRC Nebraska had driven down and scored the prior drive. Minnesota had some injuries on defense, and defenses tend to wear down late in games. With our punter the punt had a very good chance of only netting 28 yards if it rolled into the end zone. Defending versus big plays to nurse leads late in games tends to allow teams to drive down the field and there was 2:32 left in the game, an eternity. The infamous “prevent defense”.

I don’t think this is the lead pipe lock decision some think it is. Ball on 47, inches to go to secure a win. Athan can’t run a sneak? It worked out, so all is good.



.

 

[WAGopher]

I would have thought after the replay overturn, they would have reset the game & play clocks, as well as given the Gophers TO back. That would have let them try to draw the offside penalty, without the threat of a delay of game call.

Agreed, but the refs didn’t give us that option.

 

[STPGopher]

It a likelihood analysis. On the prior play—which was a 3rd down and 7, not a 4th down play (huge difference)—Mo succeeded in part because everybody was expecting a pass play. Plus, we could still punt if Mo’s run failed (because it was 3rd down). It was a two-down situation.

In the 4th and 1 situation, where everyone is expecting a Mo run, and we turn the ball over if the run fails, everything is different. You can either see the critical differences or you can’t. But trust me, these are very, very different situations.

So many people in life make poor choices. Weird to see a thread, however, in which so many people are incensed because PJ choose to not make a poor decision. PJ made a rational, low-risk, high reward decision instead of a higher-risk decision that carried far more damaging consequences.

Good points. Again, I was playing devil's advocate. I had no issues with the call.

 

[USAF]

I don’t think this is the lead pipe lock decision some think it is. Ball on 47, inches to go to secure a win. Athan can’t run a sneak? It worked out, so all is good.



.

For one thing, it wasnt "inches to go." The BS review made it 4th and a half yard.

You punt 100 times out of 100 there unless you dont have a punter.

 

[LesBolstad]

For one thing, it wasnt "inches to go." The BS review made it 4th and a half yard.

The punt was a no brainer. NE offense sucks with a bad QB. Anyone arguing otherwise does not know the game and that makes me sad

 

[STPGopher]

For one thing, it wasnt "inches to go." The BS review made it 4th and a half yard.

Good point, but again sometimes the guys in the booth see things that tilt the odds a bit. Like someone else stated, we also had to trust the officials could / would make a correct call on spotting where the ball was down if "we" went for it.

 

[#2Gopher]

Beat me to it.

And me too. It's clear that Fansinethe50's needs a new tv set.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Fleck would have also had to trust the refs to spot it correctly as well as video eye in the sky officials confirm it. Seems like a crapshoot based on a couple calls in the last few minutes of the game.

Right. You might need more than a half-yard in a big pile to ensure being credited with a half yard.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

The punt was a no brainer. NE offense sucks with a bad QB. Anyone arguing otherwise does not know the game and that makes me sad

If that’s the case does it really matter if they have to drive 47 yards, 75 yards, or 90 yards? They had driven 67 yards the prior drive, looks like. There was definitely a non-zero risk they could move the ball 90 yards late in the game with 4 downs to work with and 2:32 of clock. It doesn’t matter how bad the QB looked earlier.

I don’t really care, it worked. I don’t understand the strong emotions one way or the other though. Given all the variables at play I’m not strident about it?

 

[USAF]

If that’s the case does it really matter if they have to drive 47 yards, 75 yards, or 90 yards?

Seriously?

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Seriously?

Yeah….?

1. Nebraska has one of the worst if not the worst defense in the Big Ten, statistically. The conversion rate for fourth and less than a yard is very high. Not 100%, and maybe not for the Gophers wierd short yardage package, but speaking generally across football. Convert, game over. Is Athan practiced under center?

2. Look at what happened. Nebraska received the punt and relatively quickly drove to the 47 yard line with all the time in the world. They stalled there with the four incompletions, but it could have gotten dicey. They have some weapons. They are not good, true.

I just think too much weight is being placed on those extra 28-53 yards (pending assumed punt result sans return yardage) of field position given Nebraska was going to have 4 downs to convert every series - and punts themselves can go haywire.

 

[Some guy]

Yeah….?

1. Nebraska has one of the worst if not the worst defense in the Big Ten, statistically. The conversion rate for fourth and less than a yard is very high. Not 100%, and maybe not for the Gophers wierd short yardage package, but speaking generally across football. Convert, game over. Is Athan practiced under center?

2. Look at what happened. Nebraska received the punt and relatively quickly drove to the 47 yard line with all the time in the world. They stalled there with the four incompletions, but it could have gotten dicey. They have some weapons. They are not good, true.

I just think too much weight is being placed on those extra 28-53 yards (pending assumed punt result sans return yardage) of field position given Nebraska was going to have 4 downs to convert every series - and punts themselves can go haywire.

If they go for it and don’t get it those extra 28-53 yards are the difference between ending the game at midfield and ending it in the red zone

 

[Pompous Elitist]

If they go for it and don’t get it those extra 28-53 yards are the difference between ending the game at midfield and ending it in the red zone

You guys are maybe arguing both sides? They can’t move the ball, but they might have? Time was not really a factor. Four downs all the way. Nebraska is better at offense than defense, even with Casey out.

MN doesn’t trust their line to get push on short yardage versus a bad D. That’s demoralizing IMO.

 

[Some guy]

You guys are maybe arguing both sides? They can’t move the ball, but they might have? Time was not really a factor. Four downs all the way. Nebraska is better at offense than defense, even with Casey out.

MN doesn’t trust their line to get push on short yardage versus a bad D. That’s demoralizing IMO.

They literally did move the ball on the last drive. They went 34 yards on the last drive.

i think you have a high degree of likelihood of winning with either choice.
If you think you’re a 75% chance to get the yard. You go for the yard.
If you think you’re a 50% chance of getting the yard, you punt it.

I don’t think anyone can really be mad if either choice was made. There is logic to both things


Nebraska is not better at offense than defense even with Casey out. Excluding their first two drives they had 5 first downs. And 142 yards.
Excluding their first drive they had zero touchdowns.

Gophers defense also better than gophers offense IMO

 

[MNVCGUY]

They literally did move the ball on the last drive. They went 34 yards on the last drive.

i think you have a high degree of likelihood of winning with either choice.
If you think you’re a 75% chance to get the yard. You go for the yard.
If you think you’re a 50% chance of getting the yard, you punt it.

I don’t think anyone can really be mad if either choice was made. There is logic to both things

Don't sell some posters short. Curveball Jesus said the decision to punt ruined the game for him.

 

[Some guy]

Don't sell some posters short. Curveball Jesus said the decision to punt ruined the game for him.

If you’re really mad about punting OR you’re really mad if they had gone for it, you aren’t mad at the decision. You’re just mad

 

[MNVCGUY]

If you’re really mad about punting OR you’re really mad if they had gone for it, you aren’t mad at the decision. You’re just mad

Fleck has joked about it some at his press conferences the last few weeks how we have turned a corner since now we have people upset about how we win.

 

[Some guy]

Fleck has joked about it some at his press conferences the last few weeks how we have turned a corner since now we have people upset about how we win.

Exactly.
Last week we beat a team 31-0
A team who had a second quarter lead on Michigan this week.

This week we come back from down 10 with our backup QB at Nebraska and people are complaining that we shouldn’t have done that strategy

Times have changed


Not saying that the debate isn’t worthwhile. I think there are merits to both strategies. But people who are mad should chill. It’s better for their health

 

[Panthadad2]

That's a good call I think. Nebraska had stuffed Mo behind the line of scrimmage multiple times in the game, so for the offensive staff to be split on what play to run to make sure you get that half a yard means you should punt.

Nailed it.