Here's what I'm worried about:
TCU and Gary Patterson. (You all remember Kill's best man, right??)
2014 they have an incredible year 11-1, finish ranked #5 in the (first ever) final CFP rankings. Win a NY6 bowl to ultimately finish 12-1. Had a couple very good years after that, as well.
But Patterson was fired after last year after 8 games.
They hire a new coach this year -- BOOM -- sitting at 11-0.
Point is simply: they waited wayyyyy too long, excrutiatingly too long, to fire Patterson.
Is that how it's going to end up with Fleck???
Yet, who could have predicted that Sonny Dykes would do that? And, at this point, who is to say he can continue the success? Big 12 adds Cincy, BYU, etc. Baylor and Okie State ain't going away.
And, who's to say Garry Patterson wouldn't have made a run against the weak ass Big 12 schedule this year had they kept him on? He can coach, we know that. Maybe he was building to this year recruiting wise. No one can say for sure.
Sonny Dykes was fired at Cal. He had some moderate success at SMU.
Prior to this season, if the U fired Fleck to hire Dykes, that would be quite an interesting and overwhelmingly criticized everywhere. (and I know you're not suggesting that)
But, the point is, there are no right answers, really. TCU fans weren't thrilled with the Dykes hire. There were fans from other Big 12 programs thinking TCU should get kicked out of the league because they weren't going to be competitive. They were picked anywhere from 7th-9th in a 10-team league. Kansas was universally picked last.
And yet, here is TCU undefeated, playing a quarterback that wasn't even their starter at the beginning of the season.
So, who knew?
Its a crapshoot. For every Sonny Dykes, there's a Tim Brewster.
One thing you're right about is knowing when/if to pull the trigger and whom to hire. And, even the smartest ADs don't really know.
And, at places like Minnesota it is undoubtedly much harder to determine because so much has to go right to have sustained success even with a good coach. With a bad coach, it is easier to tell.