Which QB do the Vikes draft in 2024?

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

You've hit on most of them, but I think there are 7 teams who will need a new QB next season. There are likely only 2 worth drafting and starting right away out of next year's draft. Last year was the draft to take a QB and that's why the Vikings took JJ. That leaves 5 teams for a bidding war.

The Steelers are already discussing giving a 36 year old Russell Wilson a 3 year $100 million extension. I would be surprised if Darnold got anything lower than 45 million per year.

If JJ's not ready, they can make Daniel Jones the next Darnold next season. There's just no reason for the Vikings to spend that amount of money on a QB when they already spent a high draft pick in what's already proving to be a very good QB draft, and have Jones in waiting. That money can go a long ways to finding more help at RB, OL, and DBs.

Darnold has been shockingly better than I expected. I'm enjoying this ride but will have no problem when he walks in the offseason for more money. It's a win for everyone.

There's not a single team in the NFL that should consider Darnold that is not running the KOC offense. That would be galactically stupid. That in itself should limit his market by a number of teams.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I'd be surprised if a team offered him anywhere near that. Cousins is a red flag for paying Vikings quarterbacks. What percentage of success is attributable to O'Connell and the receiving weapons on this team? And considering that this is the first time that Darnold has looked competent? Just can't see a team emptying the bank for the guy. I think the Vikings should be able to negotiate for a 30-35 million deal for a few years.

Cousins is 36 and was coming off of an Achilles injury. Different situation. It's all supply and demand, and the demand will be high for a competent QB. 9 QBs will have an average salary over 50 million next season. 3 of the top 4 are Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence, all players Darnold can be compared to. That's the going rate.

30-35 million would rank Darnold in the 15-20 range of highest paid QB's next season. He's going to get a lot more than that.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

There's not a single team in the NFL that should consider Darnold that is not running the KOC offense. That would be galactically stupid. That in itself should limit his market by a number of teams.

Darnold also played for two of the worst QB organizations in the NFL in the Jets and Panthers. That also has to be considered.

 

[stocker08]

Cousins is 36 and was coming off of an Achilles injury. Different situation. It's all supply and demand, and the demand will be high for a competent QB. 9 QBs will have an average salary over 50 million next season. 3 of the top 4 are Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence, all players Darnold can be compared to. That's the going rate.

30-35 million would rank Darnold in the 15-20 range of highest paid QB's next season. He's going to get a lot more than that.

Cousins also had a good NFL track record along with a number of seasons with the Vikings playing at a pretty high level. This is the first time (one single year) that Darnold has looked like a starting QB in his career.

Idk....maybe a team will overpay for him.....but I just can't see a team giving him top ten QB money, especially after seeing how much worse Cousins has looked this year. Pretty clear that a decent amount of his success is attributable to O'Connell and the receivers.

 

[stocker08]

There's not a single team in the NFL that should consider Darnold that is not running the KOC offense. That would be galactically stupid. That in itself should limit his market by a number of teams.

Agree for the most part. I think there might be teams interested in him.....but I really don't think there are going to be teams ready to back up the Brinks truck. Getting a mid-range, two or three years deal to stick with the Vikings would be a pretty significant boon for a guy that had become an NFL afterthought.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Agree for the most part. I think there might be teams interested in him.....but I really don't think there are going to be teams ready to back up the Brinks truck. Getting a mid-range, two or three years deal to stick with the Vikings would be a pretty significant boon for a guy that had become an NFL afterthought.

I don't think teams will back up the Brinks truck for a long term deal. But 3 years, 150 million is definitely in play.

This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Darnold to get paid. He and his agent are not going to take a discount to stay with the Vikings.

That's why I said this is a win-win for the Vikings and Darnold. They get a good season out of Darnold, but they already have different plans for the future. Meanwhile Darnold gets paid and is set for life.

 

[stocker08]

I don't think teams will back up the Brinks truck for a long term deal. But 3 years, 150 million is definitely in play.

This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Darnold to get paid. He and his agent are not going to take a discount to stay with the Vikings.

That's why I said this is a win-win for the Vikings and Darnold. They get a good season out of Darnold, but they already have different plans for the future. Meanwhile Darnold gets paid and is set for life.

I am not saying that Darnold should take a massive cut to stay with the Vikings. I'd just be very surprised if he gets anywhere near $50 million a year. Even if he gets offered $40 million a year....I think he'd be wise to consider a slight discount in the $33M (what Baker is getting from Tampa) to $35M range.

The Vikings have a great situation set up for QBs. Darnold is only 27. If he wants to play into his 30s.....signing a three year deal with a crap team could send him right back into obscurity.

 

[GopherGrit]

There are too many teams that need a QB next season. Darnold isn't going to turn down 50 million to stay with the Vikings and the Vikings aren't going to pay him 50 million per season.

That's why you use the franchise tag

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I don't think teams will back up the Brinks truck for a long term deal. But 3 years, 150 million is definitely in play.

This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Darnold to get paid. He and his agent are not going to take a discount to stay with the Vikings.

That's why I said this is a win-win for the Vikings and Darnold. They get a good season out of Darnold, but they already have different plans for the future. Meanwhile Darnold gets paid and is set for life.

He’s already earned $65M (per Spotrac); most people I personally know would consider a significantly smaller portion of that as set for life.

Sam Darnold | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Sam Darnold contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

That's why you use the franchise tag

And still pay 41 million and prevent Darnold from getting a long term deal? I don't see that happening.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

He’s already earned $65M (per Spotrac); most people I personally know would consider a significantly smaller portion of that as set for life.

Sam Darnold | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Sam Darnold contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Obviously he's made a lot of money compared to most normal people, but that's not much more than 1 year for the top 10 QBs next season. Instead this offseason he could push that towards 200+ million. Why would he want to take a discount and possibly cut that in half?

As a 27 year old QB on his 4th team, he would be stupid to not make as much money as possible this offseason, regardless of how much he's already made. This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for him.

 

[GopherGrit]

And still pay 41 million and prevent Darnold from getting a long term deal? I don't see that happening.

You could be exactly right. I don't know.

In my mind, I can always make something up. Maybe it sounds like:

"Sam, quite frankly we love what you did for us in 2024. No one, probably even yourself, expected it to go as well as it did.

We think we can win the Super Bowl, with you at the helm, in 2025. You will have a SB champion ring, as the starting QB.

At that point, you'll be able to name your terms. If we can match them, we'll sign you to a multi-year deal and trade JJ, but if you want to take more money elsewhere that will be your choice and we'll back you all the way.

What do you say. Want to win it all?"

 

[GopherGrit]

Granted, if McCarthy is the next Joe Burrow, then we should go with McCarthy.

I'll trust KOC to be able to know that or not, when the time comes.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Obviously he's made a lot of money compared to most normal people, but that's not much more than 1 year for the top 10 QBs next season. Instead this offseason he could push that towards 200+ million. Why would he want to take a discount and possibly cut that in half?

Money isn’t the sole motivator for everyone, per my personal experience.

An ex-gf, Harvard trained lawyer, who was making major coin, quit her firm to go work for the CIA after 911.

I left an industry where I had done very well, after 15 years because I was burnt out, to work for minimum wage in a homeless shelter.

Point being is not everyone thinks the same way you do, or I do, for that matter; I learned this by living in Denver, Cities and NYC, since I was 18 and having my priorities change as I aged.

As a 27 year old QB on his 4th team, he would be stupid to not make as much money as possible this offseason, regardless of how much he's already made. This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for him.

Darnold is in the position because KOC Vikings have been able to to unlock his talents with the right coaching, scheme and talent.

Since he is set financially for life already, maybe his once in a lifetime opportunity is to contend/win a SB, rather than than maximize getting the biggest contract.

As an athlete, give me a legit chance to win a SB and being set for life vs. making the most money possible; I highly doubt based on my personal experiences shared above, that I am alone.

Neither you, me or anyone else knows what is his main motivation; maybe we’ll find out and maybe we won’t

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Last 7 games per Bradshaw -

18 TDs
2 Picks
68 Completion %
290 Yards Avg. per game

And wins the close games; he don’t twitch.

This is fast becoming a non-discussion

 

[GFBfan]

Obviously he's made a lot of money compared to most normal people, but that's not much more than 1 year for the top 10 QBs next season. Instead this offseason he could push that towards 200+ million. Why would he want to take a discount and possibly cut that in half?

As a 27 year old QB on his 4th team, he would be stupid to not make as much money as possible this offseason, regardless of how much he's already made. This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for him.

Depends on what’s more important to him.
Getting paid big cash by another team that might not be as good of a situation OR staying here for less with the weapons and team success along with having another year in the same system.

 

[Slim Tubby]

Depends on what’s more important to him.
Getting paid big cash by another team that might not be as good of a situation OR staying here for less with the weapons and team success along with having another year in the same system.

If Stafford retires, Sam might get both.

Having KOC's mentor, Puka, Kupp and Kyren Williams would make the Rams look pretty darn good, especially with an extra $10M per year in his pocket.

 

[howeda7]

Penix is going to be pretty good.

 

[howeda7]

Money isn’t the sole motivator for everyone, per my personal experience.

An ex-gf, Harvard trained lawyer, who was making major coin, quit her firm to go work for the CIA after 911.

I left an industry where I had done very well, after 15 years because I was burnt out, to work for minimum wage in a homeless shelter.

Point being is not everyone thinks the same way you do, or I do, for that matter; I learned this by living in Denver, Cities and NYC, since I was 18 and having my priorities change as I aged.




Darnold is in the position because KOC Vikings have been able to to unlock his talents with the right coaching, scheme and talent.

Since he is set financially for life already, maybe his once in a lifetime opportunity is to contend/win a SB, rather than than maximize getting the biggest contract.

As an athlete, give me a legit chance to win a SB and being set for life vs. making the most money possible; I highly doubt based on my personal experiences shared above, that I am alone.

Neither you, me or anyone else knows what is his main motivation; maybe we’ll find out and maybe we won’t

There's probably a middle ground. Something like 5 years/$100 million but fully guaranteed. He gets the same amount guaranteed as he would elsewhere. The Vikings keep cap flexibility.

 

[Ope3]

There's probably a middle ground. Something like 5 years/$100 million but fully guaranteed. He gets the same amount guaranteed as he would elsewhere. The Vikings keep cap flexibility.

That sounds like an extremely low ball offer.

 

[howeda7]

That sounds like an extremely low ball offer.

It depends. If 3/$90-$100 is his best other offer, it's the same amount of guaranteed $$ and a better situation. if he takes $3/90 from say the Giants and flames out, he ends up a back-up in years 4 and 5 he won't end up with any more $$ and will be far more miserable.

 

[Ope3]

It depends. If 3/$90-$100 is his best other offer, it's the same amount of guaranteed $$ and a better situation. if he takes $3/90 from say the Giants and flames out, he ends up a back-up in years 4 and 5 he won't end up with any more $$ and will be far more miserable.

There's really zero chance Darnold locks himself into a 5 Year/$20 Million per season deal.

If he flames out elsewhere, I think his success here will get himself at least 1 more chance, maybe more. Even as a backup/mentor QB (at age 30 ) he would get substantially more than the $10M he's getting this season, IMO, if healthy.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

There's probably a middle ground.

Good point - There’s almost always a middle ground in negotiating, although I’m not sure where that would be.

Something like 5 years/$100 million but fully guaranteed. He gets the same amount guaranteed as he would elsewhere. The Vikings keep cap flexibility.

I think he’ll be open to seeing if something is feasible here and give the Vikings first bite of the .

While the Rams offer a similar setup, there’s still the variables not known to us (the unknown unknowns)-

Does he like LA?
Does he like MN?

While LA has similar weapons/scheme, it’s still a different team and coach. Also, that new doesn’t last forever either:

Regardless, it’s easily the best story in the NFL and the Vikings have moved up the pecking order; the surreal nature of it is fascinating, and to be in the inside of this maelstrom is bizzaro Jerry territory.

Brady always took less as he wanted to win.

Think Baker’s happy to be in TB? He’s having a ball and a good comp to Darnold - same draft class/position.

Lastly, since there are more teams looking for QBs than quality options available via the draft/FA, they might get a good haul for JJ. As Mike Lynn, taught us, it only takes one team and as long as the Raiders are a suitor, anything can happen.

Personally, I don’t sign Sam to a multi- year deal without trading JJ; if you tag him, then I’d keep him. JJ still hasn’t been medically cleared to practice; so no snaps in a year, for me equals, no way he’s the starter next year.

 

[howeda7]

Good point - There’s almost always a middle ground in negotiating, although I’m not sure where that would be.


I think he’ll be open to seeing if something is feasible here and give the Vikings first bite of the .

While the Rams offer a similar setup, there’s still the variables not known to us (the unknown unknowns)-

Does he like LA?
Does he like MN?

While LA has similar weapons/scheme, it’s still a different team and coach. Also, that new doesn’t last forever either:

Regardless, it’s easily the best story in the NFL and the Vikings have moved up the pecking order; the surreal nature of it is fascinating, and to be in the inside of this maelstrom is bizzaro Jerry territory.

Brady always took less as he wanted to win.

Think Baker’s happy to be in TB? He’s having a ball and a good comp to Darnold - same draft class/position.

Lastly, since there are more teams looking for QBs than quality options available via the draft/FA, they might get a good haul for JJ. As Mike Lynn, taught us, it only takes one team and as long as the Raiders are a suitor, anything can happen.

Personally, I don’t sign Sam to a multi- year deal without trading JJ; if you tag him, then I’d keep him. JJ still hasn’t been medically cleared to practice; so no snaps in a year, for me equals, no way he’s the starter next year.

If it's between LA and the Vikings, I think you take whichever offers more $$. Same offense. Same weapons (arguably LA has better) etc.

 

[Slim Tubby]

If it's between LA and the Vikings, I think you take whichever offers more $$. Same offense. Same weapons (arguably LA has better) etc.

If it's purely a talent comparison, it's MIN quite easily IMO when you factor in everything, especially Kupp's injury issues and massive decline in productivity the last two (2) years:

RB1 - Jones vs. Williams (Slight Edge LAR)

WR1 - Jefferson vs. Puka (Slight Edge MIN)

WR2 - Addison vs. Kupp (Edge MIN)

WR3 - Nailor vs. Robinson (Edge MIN)

TE - Hockenson vs. Higbee (Edge MIN)

OT - Edge MIN

IOL - Edge LAR

The question for Darnold that remains would be if the better overall surrounding talent at MIN is worth taking $10M+ less per year.

It's a fascinating scenario. There's a ton of talk right now that Darnold might get offers close to $50M per year. What a great story for a guy that was sabotaged by inept organizations since being drafted.

It doesn't get mentioned often, but going to a respected SF organization last year must've been quite the culture shock for Sam coming from the Jets and Panthers.

 

[howeda7]

If it's purely a talent comparison, it's MIN quite easily IMO when you factor in everything, especially Kupp's injury issues and massive decline in productivity the last two (2) years:

RB1 - Jones vs. Williams (Slight Edge LAR)

WR1 - Jefferson vs. Puka (Slight Edge MIN)

WR2 - Addison vs. Kupp (Edge MIN)

WR3 - Nailor vs. Robinson (Edge MIN)

TE - Hockenson vs. Higbee (Edge MIN)

OT - Edge MIN

IOL - Edge LAR

The question for Darnold that remains would be if the better overall surrounding talent at MIN is worth taking $10M+ less per year.

It's a fascinating scenario. There's a ton of talk right now that Darnold might get offers close to $50M per year. What a great story for a guy that was sabotaged by inept organizations since being drafted.

It doesn't get mentioned often, but going to a respected SF organization last year must've been quite the culture shock for Sam coming from the Jets and Panthers.

I'd say the RB edge is significantly in LA's favor (I'm not sure Jones will even be a Viking in 2025 and is hurt a lot) and WR2 is probably a push.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

If it's purely a talent comparison, it's MIN quite easily IMO when you factor in everything, especially Kupp's injury issues and massive decline in productivity the last two (2) years:

RB1 - Jones vs. Williams (Slight Edge LAR)

WR1 - Jefferson vs. Puka (Slight Edge MIN)

WR2 - Addison vs. Kupp (Edge MIN)

WR3 - Nailor vs. Robinson (Edge MIN)

TE - Hockenson vs. Higbee (Edge MIN)

OT - Edge MIN

IOL - Edge LAR

The question for Darnold that remains would be if the better overall surrounding talent at MIN is worth taking $10M+ less per year.

It's a fascinating scenario. There's a ton of talk right now that Darnold might get offers close to $50M per year. What a great story for a guy that was sabotaged by inept organizations since being drafted.

It doesn't get mentioned often, but going to a respected SF organization last year must've been quite the culture shock for Sam coming from the Jets and Panthers.

Good analysis and you’d also factor in the D, the organization etc…I’m guessing a good agent would.

Sam said he really didn’t understand how to break down and study film, until he learned from Purdy and Shanahan; maybe he wouldn’t have been ready for this opportunity, without this apprenticeship.

 

[Slim Tubby]

I'd say the RB edge is significantly in LA's favor (I'm not sure Jones will even be a Viking in 2025 and is hurt a lot) and WR2 is probably a push.

I'd take Kyren over Jones but he only had 10 more total yards from scrimmage this year than Aaron with 59 more touches. His new contract will also be nearly triple of what Jones is paid annually. (Slight EDGE LAR)

Kupp has 67 rec, 710 yards, 6 TDs and is 31 years old. Addison has 62 rec, 875 yards, 9 TDs and is still improving at only 22 years of age. (Slight EDGE MIN)

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

FWIW -

Jeremy Fowler just said on SC that per the FO folks he’s spoken to expect Darnold to be in the Geno/Baker $zip code, 3/$100M, with a hefty guarantee. At this level ink him.

My guess, is because it has only been one year of this level of production, he’s not going to be in the highest tier of QBS salary; if he balls out for another 3 years, stays healthy and is only 30 then his next contract would be monstrous